2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina

The 2016 United States presidential election was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

2016 United States presidential election in South Carolina

November 8, 2016
Turnout	67.86%[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 9 0 Popular vote 1,155,389 855,373 Percentage 54.94% 40.67%
County Results Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

On February 20 and 27, 2016, in the presidential primaries, South Carolina voters expressed their preferences for the Republican and Democratic parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any one primary in which to vote.

Out of 3.12 million registered voters, 2.10 million voted, a turnout of 67.86%.[1]

Donald Trump continued the Republican tradition in South Carolina, carrying the state with 54.9% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 40.7% of the vote, underperforming Obama by about 4%.[2]

Republicans have only lost South Carolina once since the assassination of John F. Kennedy, in 1976 (by a double-digit percentage margin).

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Charleston County since Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

Background

The former President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with former Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[3][4] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[5] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50% for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[6][7] Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[8]

Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and 2-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[9] With their terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate was asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Political landscape in South Carolina

The Republican party's ticket has carried South Carolina in every election since 1980, and with the exception of Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale's carrying the state in 1976, the Republicans have carried the state since 1964. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan defeated Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden by a margin of 54% to 44%. The state has not had a Democratic Senator since Ernest Hollings retired in 2005. The state has had a Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives since the so-called "Republican Revolution" of 1994. However, some have suggested that South Carolina may become a battleground state in this election cycle because of Clinton's lead in the national polling.[10] A poll released on August 10 by Public Policy Polling had Trump leading Clinton by a margin of only 2 points,[10] and an internal poll commissioned for the South Carolina Democratic Party had the race tied.[11] This led Larry Sabato's political prediction website Sabato's Crystal Ball to move the rating of the South Carolina contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on August 18.[12]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

South Carolina Democratic primary, 2016

February 27, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 39 14 Popular vote 272,379 96,498 Percentage 73.44% 26.02%

South Carolina results by county   Hillary Clinton

The 59 delegates for the Democratic National Convention from South Carolina are allocated in this way. There are 53 pledged delegates and 6 unpledged delegates. For the pledged delegates, each district gets 5 delegates that are allocated proportionally. There are then 18 at-large delegates awarded proportionally.[13]

South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	272,379	73.44%	39	5	44
Bernie Sanders	96,498	26.02%	14	0	14
Willie Wilson	1,314	0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	713	0.19%
Uncommitted			0	1	1
Total votes	370,904	100%	53	6	59
Sources: The Green Papers, South Carolina State Election Commission

Republican primary

South Carolina Republican primary, 2016

February 20, 2016

Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Home state New York Florida Texas Delegate count 50 0 0 Popular vote 240,882 166,565 165,417 Percentage 32.51% 22.48% 22.33%   Candidate Jeb Bush John Kasich Ben Carson Home state Florida Ohio Maryland Delegate count 0 0 0 Popular vote 58,056 56,410 53,551 Percentage 7.84% 7.61% 7.23%

South Carolina results by county   Donald Trump   Marco Rubio

Delegates from South Carolina to the Republican National Convention are awarded in this way. 29 delegates are awarded to the candidate that wins the plurality of the vote in the South Carolina primary. The remaining 21 delegates are allocated by giving the winner of each of the seven congressional districts 3 delegates. [14]

South Carolina Republican primary, February 20, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	240,882	32.51%	50	0	50
Marco Rubio	166,565	22.48%	0	0	0
Ted Cruz	165,417	22.33%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush	58,056	7.84%	0	0	0
John Kasich	56,410	7.61%	0	0	0
Ben Carson	53,551	7.23%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)			0	0	0
George Pataki (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	740,881	100.00%	50	0	50
Source: The Green Papers

Green state convention

On April 30, the Green Party of South Carolina held its state convention. The public was welcome, but only members and delegates were eligible to vote.[15]

On April 30, it was announced that William Kreml had won the primary.

South Carolina Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
William Kreml	-	-	5
Jill Stein	-	-	3
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry	-	-	-
Darryl Cherney	-	-	-
Kent Mesplay	-	-	-
Total	-	100.00%	8

General election

Predictions

1. CNN: Solid Trump[16]
2. Cook Political Report: Likely Trump[17]
3. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Trump[18]
4. Los Angeles Times: Solid Trump[19]
5. NBC: Leans Trump[20]
6. RealClearPolitics: Leans Trump[21]
7. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Trump[22]

Polling

Republican Donald Trump won every pre-election poll, but by varying margins. The last pre-election poll showed Donald Trump leading Clinton 47% to 36%. The average of all polls showed Trump leading 46.2% to 38%.[23]

Results

United States presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	Donald Trump	Mike Pence	1,155,389	54.94%	9
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	Tim Kaine	855,373	40.67%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	Bill Weld	49,204	2.34%	0
	Independence	Evan McMullin	Nathan Johnson	21,016	1.00%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	Ajamu Baraka	13,034	0.62%	0
	Constitution	Darrell Castle	Scott Bradley	5,765	0.27%	0
	American (South Carolina)[24]	Peter Skewes	Michael Lacy	3,246	0.15%	0
Totals				2,103,027	100.00%	9

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 7 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
1st	53%	41%	Mark Sanford
2nd	57%	38%	Joe Wilson
3rd	67%	29%	Jeff Duncan
4th	60%	34%	Trey Gowdy
5th	57%	39%	Mick Mulvaney
6th	30%	67%	Jim Clyburn
7th	58%	39%	Tom Rice

By county

County	Clinton%	Clinton#	Trump%	Trump#	Others%	Others#	Total
Abbeville	34.72%	3,741	62.77%	6,763	2.52%	271	10,775
Aiken	34.01%	25,455	61.49%	46,025	4.50%	3,371	74,851
Allendale	76.14%	2,735	21.97%	789	1.89%	68	3,592
Anderson	26.21%	21,097	69.87%	56,232	3.92%	3,154	80,483
Bamberg	62.73%	3,898	35.47%	2,204	1.80%	112	6,214
Barnwell	46.39%	4,400	51.54%	4,889	2.07%	196	9,485
Beaufort	40.93%	32,138	54.66%	42,922	4.41%	3,464	78,524
Berkeley	38.61%	30,705	56.07%	44,587	5.31%	4,225	79,517
Calhoun	47.33%	3,573	50.17%	3,787	2.50%	189	7,549
Charleston	50.64%	89,299	42.78%	75,443	6.58%	11,603	176,345
Cherokee	28.00%	6,092	69.70%	15,167	2.30%	500	21,759
Chester	46.36%	6,579	51.19%	7,265	2.45%	348	14,192
Chesterfield	41.36%	6,858	56.16%	9,312	2.48%	411	16,581
Clarendon	50.22%	7,732	47.98%	7,386	1.80%	277	15,395
Colleton	44.21%	7,627	52.70%	9,091	3.09%	533	17,251
Darlington	46.80%	13,888	50.51%	14,989	2.69%	797	29,674
Dillon	49.87%	5,834	48.19%	5,637	1.94%	227	11,698
Dorchester	38.45%	24,055	55.92%	34,987	5.63%	3,525	62,567
Edgefield	38.57%	4,491	58.76%	6,842	2.67%	311	11,644
Fairfield	61.64%	6,945	35.74%	4,027	2.62%	295	11,267
Florence	46.11%	26,710	51.05%	29,573	2.84%	1,648	57,931
Georgetown	42.04%	13,310	54.93%	17,389	3.03%	958	31,657
Greenville	34.62%	74,483	59.41%	127,832	5.97%	12,850	215,165
Greenwood	37.24%	10,711	58.97%	16,961	3.79%	1,091	28,763
Hampton	58.71%	5,170	39.61%	3,488	1.68%	148	8,806
Horry	29.65%	39,410	67.17%	89,288	3.18%	4,222	132,920
Jasper	52.12%	5,956	45.39%	5,187	2.49%	284	11,427
Kershaw	35.63%	10,330	60.50%	17,542	3.87%	1,123	28,995
Lancaster	35.47%	13,812	60.91%	23,719	3.61%	1,407	38,938
Laurens	33.46%	8,889	63.30%	16,816	3.24%	861	26,566
Lee	63.74%	5,199	34.37%	2,803	1.89%	154	8,156
Lexington	28.86%	35,230	65.55%	80,026	5.60%	6,837	122,093
Marion	60.02%	8,569	38.14%	5,444	1.84%	263	14,276
Marlboro	57.31%	5,954	41.07%	4,267	1.62%	168	10,389
McCormick	47.53%	2,479	50.84%	2,652	1.63%	85	5,216
Newberry	36.99%	6,217	59.60%	10,017	3.41%	573	16,807
Oconee	23.78%	7,998	71.88%	24,178	4.34%	1,459	33,635
Orangeburg	67.64%	26,318	30.66%	11,931	1.70%	661	38,910
Pickens	21.11%	10,354	73.88%	36,236	5.01%	2,459	49,049
Richland	64.01%	108,000	31.10%	52,469	4.89%	8,253	168,722
Saluda	32.85%	2,813	64.53%	5,526	2.63%	225	8,564
Spartanburg	33.03%	39,997	62.99%	76,277	3.98%	4,816	121,090
Sumter	54.55%	24,047	42.52%	18,745	2.94%	1,294	44,086
Union	39.11%	4,729	58.39%	7,061	2.50%	302	12,092
Williamsburg	66.12%	9,953	32.31%	4,864	1.57%	237	15,054
York	36.37%	41,593	58.37%	66,754	5.26%	6,010	114,357

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Barnwell (largest city: Barnwell)
• Calhoun (largest town: St. Matthews)
• Chester (largest city: Chester)
• Colleton (largest city: Walterboro)
• Darlington (largest city: Hartsville)
• McCormick (largest town: McCormick)

Electors

Technically the voters of South Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. South Carolina is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 19, 2016, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged for Trump/Pence.

• Glenn McCall
• Matt Moore
• Terry Hardesty
• Jim Ulmer
• Brenda Bedenbaugh
• Bill Conley
• Shery Smith
• Moye Graham
• Jerry Rovner[25]

References

1. "South Carolina Voter Registration Demographics". scvotes.org. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
2. "South Carolina Results". New York Times. Retrieved 30 September 2020.
3. "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
4. "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
5. "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
6. "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
7. Byrnes, Jesse (2016-06-15). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
8. Cohn, Nate (2015-01-19). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-06-19.
9. "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
10. "Clinton/Trump Race Tight in South Carolina". Public Policy Polling. Public Policy Polling. Archived from the original on 15 August 2016. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
11. Master, Cyra. "Poll: Clinton tied with Trump in SC". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
12. Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 24 August 2016.
13. "South Carolina Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2017-02-22.
14. Carrejo, Cate. "Is The South Carolina Primary Winner Take All? There's A Lot At Stake In The Palmetto State". Retrieved 2017-02-22.
15. "2016 South Carolina Green Party state convention". South Carolina Green Party. 2016-03-10. Retrieved 2016-03-12.
16. Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
17. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
18. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
19. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 6 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
20. Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
21. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
22. Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
23. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5748.html#!
24. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
25. "Press Release: SCGOP selects Electoral College Members". 23 August 2016. Archived from the original on 11 November 2016. Retrieved 13 September 2017.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions