2016 United States presidential election in Indiana

The 2016 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Indiana
November 8, 2016
Turnout58%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,557,286 1,033,126
Percentage 56.47% 37.46%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Elections in Indiana
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
State House of Representatives elections
Evansville
Mayoral Elections
Fort Wayne
Mayoral Elections
Gary
Mayoral Elections
Indianapolis
Mayoral Elections
Before Unigov
Unigov-era
City-County Council Elections
South Bend
Mayoral Elections

Trump won the state with 56.47% of the vote, while Clinton received 37.46%.[2] Indiana is the home state of Pence, which was believed to have provided important assistance to the Trump campaign in what already would have been a Republican-leaning state.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
CNN[3] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[4] Likely R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[5] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[6] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[7] Likely R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

Overall
2016 United States presidential election in Indiana[9]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 1,557,286 56.9% +2.8%
Democratic Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine		 1,033,126 37.8% -6.1%
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Bill Weld		 133,993 4.9% +3.0%
Green Jill Stein (write-in)
Ajamu Baraka		 7,841 0.3% +0.1%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in)
Scott Bradley		 1,937 0.1% +0.1%
Write-in 775 0.0% N/A
Total votes 2,734,958 100.00%

By congressional district

Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[10]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 41% 54% Pete Visclosky
2nd 59% 36% Jackie Walorski
3rd 65% 30% Marlin Stutzman
4th 64% 30% Todd Rokita
5th 53% 41% Susan Brooks
6th 68% 27% Luke Messer
7th 36% 58% André Carson
8th 64% 31% Larry Bucshon
9th 61% 34% Todd Young

By county
Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic

 Donald John Trump

Republican

 Various candidates

Other parties

 Total
County % # % # % # #
Adams21.43%2,80573.71%9,6484.87%63713,090
Allen37.64%55,38257.04%83,9305.32%7,825147,137
Bartholomew30.29%9,84163.53%20,6406.18%2,00932,490
Benton23.46%86070.35%2,5796.19%2273,666
Blackford25.69%1,24369.23%3,3505.08%2464,839
Boone31.64%10,18161.08%19,6547.28%2,34332,178
Brown31.69%2,51863.13%5,0165.17%4117,945
Carroll21.89%1,89272.58%6,2735.53%4788,643
Cass26.46%3,75968.27%9,7015.27%74914,209
Clark36.77%18,80858.72%30,0354.50%2,30451,147
Clay20.44%2,30675.62%8,5313.94%44511,282
Clinton23.62%2,81971.47%8,5314.91%58611,936
Crawford28.80%1,32365.64%3,0155.55%2554,593
Daviess16.72%1,80079.36%8,5453.93%42310,768
Dearborn20.36%4,88375.51%18,1134.13%99123,987
Decatur19.06%2,12176.30%8,4904.64%51611,127
DeKalb23.32%3,94271.32%12,0545.36%90616,902
Delaware40.23%18,15353.77%24,2636.0%2,70745,123
Dubois26.97%5,38966.88%13,3656.15%1,23019,984
Elkhart31.60%20,74063.79%41,8674.61%3,02365,630
Fayette23.63%2,25271.76%6,8394.61%4399,530
Floyd37.26%13,94557.27%21,4325.47%2,04837,425
Fountain19.70%1,47675.57%5,6624.73%3547,492
Franklin17.88%1,96978.72%8,6693.41%37511,013
Fulton23.41%1,96071.77%6,0104.82%4048,374
Gibson24.03%3,72171.56%11,0814.40%68215,484
Grant27.69%7,01067.19%17,0085.11%1,29425,312
Greene21.22%2,92974.47%10,2774.31%59513,801
Hamilton37.12%57,26356.66%87,4046.22%9,589154,256
Hancock24.61%8,90469.30%25,0746.09%2,20336,181
Harrison25.77%4,78369.74%12,9434.48%83218,558
Hendricks29.91%22,60063.97%48,3376.12%4,62275,559
Henry25.42%5,12468.94%13,8955.64%1,13620,155
Howard30.44%11,21564.26%23,6755.30%1,95336,843
Huntington21.85%3,50672.61%11,6495.54%88816,043
Jackson21.87%3,84373.17%12,8594.96%87117,573
Jasper24.88%3,32970.13%9,3824.99%66713,378
Jay23.65%1,88971.34%5,6975.01%4007,986
Jefferson31.94%4,32663.10%8,5464.96%67213,544
Jennings21.20%2,36473.76%8,2245.04%56211,150
Johnson26.04%17,31868.35%45,4565.60%3,72666,500
Knox24.31%3,77271.39%11,0774.30%66715,516
Kosciusko19.68%6,31374.60%23,9355.72%1,83632,084
LaGrange21.74%2,08073.44%7,0254.82%4619,566
Lake58.12%116,93537.59%75,6254.30%8,645201,205
LaPorte43.80%19,79850.19%22,6876.01%2,71845,203
Lawrence21.98%4,21073.28%14,0354.74%90719,152
Madison34.49%18,59560.06%32,3765.45%2,93853,909
Marion58.75%212,89935.97%130,3605.27%19,113362,372
Marshall26.53%4,79867.96%12,2885.51%99618,082
Martin18.32%88176.88%3,6974.80%2314,809
Miami20.52%2,76673.99%9,9755.50%74113,482
Monroe58.53%34,21635.23%20,5926.24%3,64658,454
Montgomery22.18%3,36272.97%11,0594.85%73515,156
Morgan19.31%6,04075.68%23,6745.01%1,56631,280
Newton24.23%1,40470.35%4,0775.42%3145,795
Noble23.11%3,90472.22%12,1984.67%78816,890
Ohio23.49%68672.51%2,1184.01%1172,921
Orange25.00%2,04870.84%5,8034.16%3418,192
Owen22.74%1,94671.91%6,1535.35%4588,557
Parke21.89%1,44173.88%4,8634.22%2786,582
Perry38.01%3,06256.56%4,5565.43%4378,055
Pike21.70%1,29773.58%4,3984.72%2825,977
Porter43.63%33,67650.31%38,8326.07%4,68277,190
Posey28.24%3,52167.41%8,4044.35%54212,467
Pulaski24.31%1,32770.60%3,8545.09%2785,459
Putnam22.81%3,35672.29%10,6374.91%72214,715
Randolph23.39%2,44671.88%7,5174.73%49510,458
Ripley19.29%2,47176.55%9,8064.16%53312,810
Rush21.14%1,52573.36%5,2925.50%3977,214
Scott29.03%2,64266.74%6,0744.23%3859,101
Shelby23.60%4,24770.68%12,7185.72%1,02917,994
Spencer28.67%2,86165.86%6,5725.47%5469,979
St. Joseph47.48%52,25247.27%52,0215.26%5,787110,060
Starke26.98%2,48969.01%6,3674.01%3709,226
Steuben25.70%3,74469.57%10,1334.73%68914,566
Sullivan24.69%2,11371.71%6,1383.60%3088,559
Switzerland25.14%93069.15%2,5585.70%2113,699
Tippecanoe43.64%27,28249.22%30,7687.14%4,46562,515
Tipton21.13%1,58774.42%5,5894.45%3347,510
Union21.73%71574.29%2,4453.98%1313,291
Vanderburgh39.35%28,53055.85%40,4964.80%3,48172,507
Vermillion29.99%2,08165.04%4,5134.97%3456,939
Vigo40.01%15,93155.09%21,9374.90%1,95039,818
Wabash22.41%3,01872.92%9,8214.67%62913,468
Warren21.35%83973.74%2,8984.91%1933,930
Warrick30.71%9,08664.59%19,1134.70%1,39029,589
Washington23.16%2,63672.12%8,2094.72%53711,382
Wayne32.53%8,32262.66%16,0284.80%1,22925,579
Wells19.61%2,58675.88%10,0054.51%59413,185
White25.76%2,59068.57%6,8935.67%57010,053
Whitley21.63%3,37972.70%11,3585.67%88615,623

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Primary elections

Democratic primary
County results of the 2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton
Main article: 2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Democratic primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 335,074 52.46% 44 0 44
Hillary Clinton 303,705 47.54% 39 7 46
Uncommitted N/A 0 2 2
Total 638,779 100% 83 9 92
Source: The Green Papers - Official Primary Results

Republican primary
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz
Main article: 2016 Indiana Republican presidential primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Republican primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 591,514 53.26% 57 0 57
Ted Cruz 406,783 36.63% 0 0 0
John Kasich 84,111 7.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,914 0.80% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 6,508 0.59% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,175 0.47% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 4,306 0.39% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,738 0.16% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,494 0.13% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,110,543 100.00% 57 0 57
Source: The Green Papers

Polling
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Indiana

Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted by at least 5 points, and often by double digits. The average of the last 3 polls showed Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton 49% to 38%.[11] Donald Trump had won almost all the undecided vote, as shown by the results where he won 56% to 37%.

Analysis
Indiana Governor Mike Pence ran as Donald Trump's running-mate

Of the 2,760,375 votes cast, Donald Trump won 1,557,286 votes, Hillary Clinton won 1,033,126 votes and Gary Johnson won 133,993 votes.[2]

Indiana has historically been the most conservative state in the Rust Belt. It went Democratic for Barack Obama in 2008—the first time it had done so since 1964, and only the fourth time since 1912. However, it has shifted back to being solidly Republican. Republican nominee Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton,[12] thus gaining all of Indiana's 11 electoral votes.

Donald Trump's victory in the Hoosier State can be attributed to several factors. For one, Donald Trump had selected Indiana governor Mike Pence as his running mate, effectively eliminating any chance that Clinton could repeat Obama's surprise upset win in the state over John McCain eight years prior. Also, the state skews whiter and more Evangelical Protestant than the rest of the Midwest and the Rust Belt overall, which is a better demographic make-up for Republicans; Trump won white born-agains and evangelicals by a margin of 75–22.[13]

Suburban communities in the "doughnut counties" surrounding Indianapolis lean heavily Republican, and bolstered the Trump-Pence ticket in the state. Many of these voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Another GOP stronghold that benefited Trump was the northeast region around Fort Wayne, which is a mix of suburban, exurban and rural areas, and is home to some of the most socially conservative voters in the nation.

In Southern Indiana along the Ohio River, especially around Evansville in Vanderburgh County, the electorate is dominated by "Butternut Democrats:" socially conservative, working-class white voters who were Democrats for generations but have been trending Republican in reaction to the increased social liberalism of national Democrats.[14] Such voters turned out for Trump in full force, inspired by his economic populism and by Pence's social conservatism.

Trump also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892.

Clinton, for her part, performed well in Indianapolis in Marion County and in Gary in Lake County, which has a large African American population and is considered part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Clinton won African Americans by a margin of 83–12. She also won St. Joseph and Monroe counties, home to the University of Notre Dame and Indiana University, respectively. Areas where Clinton improved on Obama's performance in 2012 were predominantly located in well-educated suburbs of Indianapolis and areas surrounding large universities, where several socially moderate Republicans chose not to vote for Trump out of discomfort for his controversial views on race and women.

See also

References
  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  2. "2016 Presidential General Election Results".
  3. Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  4. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  5. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  6. Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  7. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  8. Sabato, Larry (7 November 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved 12 February 2019.
  9. "Candidate List". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved 2020-11-06.
  10. Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008 Retrieved 1 March 2020.
  11. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_trump_vs_clinton-5878.html#polls
  12. "Indiana Election Results 2016". New York Times. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  13. "2016 election results: Indiana Exit polls". CNN. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  14. Cohen, Micah (2012-10-19). "After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
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