2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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 County results
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| Elections in Indiana |
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Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state.[3]
On the day of the election, Trump won Indiana by 57.1% to Biden's 41%, a slight improvement over his 56.47% share of the vote in 2016, albeit by a reduced margin of 16% compared with 19% that year. This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since 1952, and the first Democrat since 1884, to win without carrying Vigo County.[4] He also flipped Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette, from Republican to Democratic. This is also the first election since 1992 in which Indiana voted to the right of Kansas.
Notably, Biden reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metro that is the state's fourth most populous county.[5] Hamilton County has voted for the Republican Party in every election since its founding except for 1912.[6] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for McCain in 2008, when Obama won Indiana. Romney won Hamilton County 66%-32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even LBJ in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.[7] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 380,836 | 76.5% | 81 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 67,688 | 13.6% | 1 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 17,957 | 3.6% | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 14,344 | 2.9% | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 4,783 | 1.0% | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 4,426 | 0.9% | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 3,860 | 0.8% | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 2,657 | 0.5% | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 1,376 | 0.3% | |
| Total | 497,927 | 100% | 82 |
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
Green primary
The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.[11]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| Politico[15] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| RCP[16] | Lean R | October 6, 2020 |
| Niskanen[17] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| CNN[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| The Economist[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| CBS News[20] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| 270towin[21] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| ABC News[22] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
| NPR[23] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| NBC News[24] | Likely R | October 6, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Safe R | October 6, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 31, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 41.8% | 51.2% | 7.0% | Trump +9.4 |
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 2,729 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 54%[lower-alpha 3] | 44% | – | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 264 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 55% | 43% | 2% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 3% | 53% | 42% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 4,734 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 301 (LV) | ± 7.4% | 53% | 42% | 5% | – | – |
| Ragnar Research (R) | Oct 18–21, 2020 | 529 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 40% | 5% | – | 7% |
| SurveyUSA/Election Twitter | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 527 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 49% | 42% | – | 3% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,367 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – |
| Change Research/IndyPolitics | Sep 3–7, 2020 | 1,033 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 39% | 5% | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,672 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020[lower-alpha 4] | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 38% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,175 (LV) | – | 56% | 43% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 929 (LV) | – | 57% | 40% | – | – | – |
| Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General[upper-alpha 1] | May 21–23, 2020 | 894 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | – | – | – |
| Indy Politics/Change Research | Apr 10–13, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 39% | – | 5% | 3% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Statewide results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,729,519 | 57.02% | +0.55% | |
| Democratic | Joseph R. Biden Jr. Kamala D. Harris |
1,242,416 | 40.96% | +3.5% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
59,232 | 1.95% | -2.9% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in) |
988 | 0.03% | -0.3% | |
| American Solidarity | Brian T. Carroll (write-in) Amar Patel (write-in) |
893 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 70 | 0.00% | +0.0% | ||
| Total votes | 3,033,118 | 100.0% | |||
Results by county
| Trump/Pence Republican |
Biden/Harris Democratic |
Jorgensen/Cohen Libertarian |
Write-ins | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Adams | 10,686 | 75.21% | 3,236 | 22.77% | 287 | 2.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 14,209 |
| Allen | 92,083 | 54.56% | 73,189 | 43.29% | 3,728 | 2.20% | 82 | 0.05% | 169,082 |
| Bartholomew | 22,410 | 61.85% | 12,934 | 35.69% | 872 | 2.41% | 19 | 0.07% | 36,235 |
| Benton | 3,007 | 73.09% | 1,009 | 24.53% | 92 | 2.24% | 6 | 0.15% | 4,114 |
| Blackford | 3,841 | 71.78% | 1,376 | 25.71% | 132 | 2.47% | 2 | 0.04% | 5,351 |
| Boone | 22,351 | 58.02% | 15,244 | 39.57% | 905 | 2.40% | 20 | 0.05% | 38,520 |
| Brown | 5,777 | 64.32% | 3,036 | 33.80% | 168 | 1.87% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,981 |
| Carroll | 7,086 | 74.63% | 2,224 | 23.42% | 185 | 1.95% | 0 | 0.00% | 9,495 |
| Cass | 10,552 | 69.43% | 4,304 | 28.32% | 333 | 2.19% | 9 | 0.06% | 15,198 |
| Clark | 33,668 | 58.18% | 23,093 | 39.91% | 1,108 | 1.91% | 0 | 0.00% | 57,869 |
| Clay | 9,499 | 77.44% | 2,552 | 20.80% | 208 | 1.70% | 8 | 0.07% | 12,267 |
| Clinton | 9,334 | 72.08% | 3,361 | 25.60% | 246 | 1.90% | 8 | 0.06% | 12,949 |
| Crawford | 3,483 | 70.45% | 1,355 | 27.41% | 106 | 2.14% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,944 |
| Daviess | 9,576 | 80.11% | 2,169 | 18.14% | 204 | 1.71% | 5 | 0.04% | 11,954 |
| Dearborn | 19,528 | 76.93% | 5,446 | 21.46% | 387 | 1.52% | 22 | 0.09% | 25,383 |
| Decatur | 9,575 | 77.93% | 2,439 | 19.85% | 273 | 2.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 12,287 |
| Dekalb | 14,237 | 72.53% | 4,966 | 25.30% | 425 | 2.17% | 0 | 0.00% | 19,628 |
| Delaware | 26,827 | 55.67% | 20,474 | 42.49% | 890 | 1.85% | 0 | 0.00% | 48,191 |
| Dubois | 15,033 | 69.05% | 6,292 | 28.90% | 432 | 1.98% | 13 | 0.06% | 21,770 |
| Elkhart | 46,972 | 63.15% | 26,108 | 35.10% | 1,241 | 1.67% | 66 | 0.11% | 74,387 |
| Fayette | 7,755 | 76.51% | 2,237 | 22.07% | 144 | 1.42% | 0 | 0.00% | 10,136 |
| Floyd | 23,400 | 55.98% | 17,511 | 41.89% | 850 | 2.03% | 41 | 0.10% | 41,802 |
| Fountain | 6,154 | 77.06% | 1,629 | 20.40% | 200 | 2.50% | 3 | 0.04% | 7,986 |
| Franklin | 9,691 | 80.76% | 2,137 | 17.81% | 169 | 1.41% | 3 | 0.03% | 12,000 |
| Fulton | 6,694 | 73.18% | 2,280 | 24.93% | 170 | 1.86% | 3 | 0.03% | 9,147 |
| Gibson | 11,817 | 73.12% | 4,023 | 24.89% | 321 | 1.99% | 0 | 0.00% | 16,161 |
| Grant | 18,543 | 68.28% | 8,015 | 29.51% | 584 | 2.15% | 17 | 0.06% | 27,159 |
| Greene | 11,103 | 75.10% | 3,389 | 22.92% | 290 | 1.96% | 2 | 0.01% | 14,784 |
| Hamilton | 101,587 | 52.36% | 88,390 | 45.56% | 3,894 | 2.01% | 128 | 0.07% | 193,999 |
| Hancock | 28,996 | 67.57% | 12,895 | 30.05% | 1,016 | 2.37% | 4 | 0.01% | 42,911 |
| Harrison | 14,565 | 71.98% | 5,343 | 26.40% | 323 | 1.60% | 5 | 0.02% | 20,236 |
| Hendricks | 53,802 | 60.79% | 32,604 | 36.84% | 2,052 | 2.32% | 47 | 0.05% | 88,505 |
| Henry | 15,043 | 71.53% | 5,544 | 26.36% | 434 | 2.06% | 9 | 0.04% | 21,030 |
| Howard | 26,449 | 65.10% | 13,303 | 32.74% | 858 | 2.11% | 20 | 0.05% | 40,630 |
| Huntington | 13,147 | 73.74% | 4,255 | 23.87% | 408 | 2.29% | 19 | 0.11% | 17,829 |
| Jackson | 14,555 | 75.66% | 4,302 | 22.36% | 381 | 1.98% | 0 | 0.00% | 19,238 |
| Jasper | 11,383 | 73.56% | 3,798 | 24.54% | 288 | 1.86% | 6 | 0.04% | 15,475 |
| Jay | 6,361 | 75.18% | 1,926 | 22.76% | 169 | 2.00% | 5 | 0.06% | 8,461 |
| Jefferson | 9,663 | 65.75% | 4,731 | 32.19% | 296 | 2.01% | 7 | 0.05% | 14,697 |
| Jennings | 9,490 | 77.46% | 2,523 | 20.59% | 238 | 1.94% | 0 | 0.00% | 12,251 |
| Johnson | 51,219 | 65.99% | 24,736 | 31.87% | 1,618 | 2.08% | 45 | 0.06% | 77,618 |
| Knox | 11,655 | 72.79% | 4,067 | 25.40% | 282 | 1.76% | 7 | 0.04% | 16,011 |
| Kosciusko | 26,499 | 74.05% | 8,364 | 22.74% | 903 | 2.52% | 21 | 0.06% | 35,787 |
| Lagrange | 8,110 | 76.27% | 2,355 | 22.15% | 168 | 1.58% | 0 | 0.00% | 10,633 |
| Lake | 91,760 | 41.72% | 124,870 | 56.77% | 3,212 | 1.46% | 114 | 0.05% | 219,956 |
| LaPorte | 25,997 | 52.63% | 22,427 | 45.41% | 968 | 1.96% | 0 | 0.00% | 49,392 |
| Lawrence | 15,601 | 74.20% | 4,961 | 23.60% | 463 | 2.20% | 0 | 0.00% | 21,025 |
| Madison | 31,215 | 60.26% | 19,524 | 37.69% | 1,026 | 1.98% | 28 | 0.05% | 51,803 |
| Marion | 134,175 | 34.44% | 247,772 | 63.59% | 7,228 | 1.48% | 444 | 0.09% | 489,619 |
| Marshall | 13,844 | 69.47% | 5,712 | 28.66% | 362 | 1.82% | 9 | 0.05% | 19,927 |
| Martin | 4,029 | 78.32% | 1,011 | 19.65% | 104 | 2.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,144 |
| Miami | 10,925 | 75.49% | 3,235 | 22.35% | 306 | 2.11% | 7 | 0.05% | 14,473 |
| Monroe | 22,071 | 34.95% | 39,861 | 63.12% | 1,105 | 1.75% | 114 | 0.18% | 63,151 |
| Montgomery | 12,659 | 73.61% | 4,213 | 24.50% | 326 | 1.90% | 0 | 0.00% | 17,198 |
| Morgan | 27,512 | 76.09% | 7,781 | 21.52% | 862 | 2.38% | 4 | 0.01% | 36,159 |
| Newton | 4,942 | 74.99% | 1,509 | 22.90% | 140 | 2.12% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,590 |
| Noble | 14,195 | 73.97% | 4,660 | 24.28% | 335 | 1.75% | 0 | 0.00% | 19,190 |
| Ohio | 2,054 | 66.80% | 668 | 21.72% | 353 | 11.48% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,075 |
| Orange | 6,432 | 72.83% | 2,224 | 25.18% | 174 | 1.97% | 2 | 0.02% | 8,832 |
| Owen | 7,286 | 73.57% | 2,420 | 24.43% | 198 | 2.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 9,904 |
| Parke | 5,400 | 77.00% | 1,503 | 21.43% | 110 | 1.57% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,013 |
| Perry | 5,345 | 61.28% | 3,203 | 36.72% | 174 | 1.99% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,722 |
| Pike | 4,692 | 75.43% | 1,415 | 22.75% | 113 | 1.82% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,220 |
| Porter | 45,008 | 52.03% | 39,746 | 45.94% | 1,656 | 1.91% | 99 | 0.11% | 86,509 |
| Posey | 9,206 | 69.55% | 3,811 | 28.79% | 214 | 1.62% | 5 | 0.04% | 13,236 |
| Pulaski | 4,246 | 73.13% | 1,463 | 25.20% | 97 | 1.67% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,806 |
| Putnam | 12,278 | 73.98% | 3,946 | 23.78% | 371 | 2.24% | 2 | 0.01% | 16,597 |
| Randolph | 8,312 | 75.09% | 2,513 | 22.70% | 243 | 2.20% | 2 | 0.02% | 11,070 |
| Ripley | 11,261 | 78.91% | 2,774 | 19.44% | 229 | 1.60% | 7 | 0.05% | 14,271 |
| Rush | 6,035 | 76.08% | 1,754 | 22.11% | 143 | 1.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,932 |
| Scott | 7,331 | 72.11% | 2,701 | 26.57% | 134 | 1.32% | 1 | 0.01% | 10,167 |
| Shelby | 14,568 | 72.87% | 5,023 | 25.13% | 400 | 2.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 19,991 |
| Spencer | 7,357 | 68.32% | 3,213 | 29.84% | 199 | 1.85% | 0 | 0.00% | 10,769 |
| St. Joseph | 53,164 | 46.17% | 59,896 | 52.02% | 1,925 | 1.67% | 153 | 0.13% | 115,138 |
| Starke | 7,466 | 72.56% | 2,650 | 25.75% | 174 | 1.69% | 0 | 0.00% | 10,290 |
| Steuben | 11,327 | 70.08% | 4,513 | 27.92% | 312 | 1.93% | 10 | 0.06% | 16,162 |
| Sullivan | 6,691 | 74.39% | 2,153 | 23.94% | 150 | 1.67% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,994 |
| Switzerland | 3,133 | 75.42% | 964 | 23.21% | 55 | 1.32% | 2 | 0.05% | 4,154 |
| Tippecanoe | 34,581 | 48.40% | 35,017 | 49.01% | 1,832 | 2.56% | 18 | 0.03% | 71,448 |
| Tipton | 6,110 | 75.28% | 1,834 | 22.60% | 171 | 2.11% | 1 | 0.01% | 8,116 |
| Union | 2,688 | 77.17% | 736 | 21.13% | 59 | 1.69% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,483 |
| Vanderburgh | 41,844 | 53.88% | 34,415 | 44.31% | 1,322 | 1.70% | 81 | 0.10% | 77,662 |
| Vermillion | 5,184 | 69.30% | 2,145 | 28.67% | 151 | 2.02% | 1 | 0.01% | 7,481 |
| Vigo | 24,545 | 56.30% | 18,123 | 41.57% | 900 | 2.06% | 26 | 0.06% | 43,594 |
| Wabash | 10,762 | 73.85% | 3,494 | 23.98% | 317 | 2.18% | 0 | 0.00% | 14,573 |
| Warren | 3,401 | 76.05% | 974 | 21.78% | 96 | 2.15% | 1 | 0.02% | 4,472 |
| Warrick | 21,326 | 63.04% | 11,923 | 35.24% | 557 | 1.65% | 23 | 0.07% | 33,829 |
| Washington | 9,114 | 75.08% | 2,784 | 22.93% | 233 | 1.92% | 8 | 0.07% | 12,139 |
| Wayne | 17,567 | 63.47% | 9,524 | 34.41% | 571 | 2.06% | 17 | 0.06% | 27,679 |
| Wells | 10,855 | 77.26% | 2,928 | 20.84% | 261 | 1.86% | 6 | 0.04% | 14,050 |
| White | 7,957 | 71.26% | 3,032 | 27.15% | 170 | 1.52% | 7 | 0.06% | 11,166 |
| Whitley | 12,862 | 73.26% | 4,234 | 24.12% | 453 | 2.58% | 7 | 0.04% | 17,556 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Tippecanoe (largest municipality: Lafayette)
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Partisan clients
- This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Indiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- https://www.indiana-demographics.com/counties_by_population
- "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- "Indiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Past Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primary Voting". Indiana Green Party. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "Presidential Electors for US President & VP". Indiana Secretary of State. December 3, 2020. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Indiana
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", Nytimes.com. (Describes bellwether Vigo County, Indiana)
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Indiana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Indiana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Indiana". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Indiana at Ballotpedia
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