2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 5.9 percent, similar to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).
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Turnout | 50.42% | ||||||||||||||||
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County results Braun: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Donnelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Indiana |
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Background
In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]
Democratic primary
Nominee
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
Endorsements
- Former U.S. Vice President
- United States Senator
- Doug Jones, United States Senator from Alabama[12]
- Organization
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 284,621 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 284,621 | 100.00% |
Republican primary
Nominee
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative[15][16]
Eliminated in the primary election
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative[17]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative[18][19][20]
Declined
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative[21]
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (endorsed Luke Messer)[19][22]
- Mike Delph, state senator (endorsed Todd Rokita)[18][23]
- Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative[24][25][26]
Withdrawn
- Terry Henderson, businessman[27][28] (endorsed Mike Braun)[29]
- Andy Horning, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and Libertarian nominee for IN-08 in 2014[30][31]
- Mark Hurt, attorney and former congressional aide[32][33][34][35]
- Andrew Takami, director of Purdue Polytechnic New Albany[36][37] (endorsed Luke Messer)[38]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Coburn (R-OK)[39]
- State Senators
- State Representatives
- Ronald Bacon[40]
- Christopher Judy[40]
- Chris May[40]
- Bob Morris[40]
- Organizations
- Newspapers
- U.S. Representatives
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)[44]
- State-level officials
- Martin Carbaugh, state representative[45]
- Dave Heine, state representative[45]
- Todd Huston, state representative[46]
- David C. Long, State Senate President Pro Tempore[47]
- Wendy McNamara, state representative[48]
- Thomas Wyss, former state senator[45]
- Former state party chairs
- Tim Berry[49]
- J. Murray Clark[49]
- Gordon Durnil[49]
- Al Hubbard[49]
- Jim Kittle[49]
- Bruce Melchert[49]
- Local-level officials
- Christine Altman, Hamilton County Commissioner[46]
- James Brainard, Carmel Mayor[46]
- Andy Cook, Westfield Mayor[46]
- Steve Dillinger, Hamilton County Commissioner[46]
- Scott Fadness, Fishers Mayor[46]
- Mark Heirbrandt, Hamilton County Commissioner[46]
- Individuals
- James Bopp, conservative attorney and constitutional scholar[50]
- State-level officials
- Mike Delph, state senator[23]
- Alan Morrison, state representative[51]
- Hal Slager, state representative[52]
- Heath VanNatter, state representative[53]
- Former state party chairs
- Jeff Cardwell[54]
- Rexford C. Early[55]
- Local-level officials
- Ken Meyer. Decatur Mayor[56]
- Monty Snelling, Clark County Auditor[57]
- Individuals
- Russ Willis, chairman of the Madison County Republican Party[58]
- Newspapers
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Luke Messer |
Todd Rokita |
Mike Braun |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategic National (R) | May 5–6, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 29% | 28% | 44% | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | April 6–11, 2018 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 13% | 16% | 26% | – | 45% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | January 6–9, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 9% | 24% | 9% | – | 58% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | July 16–18, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 20% | 28% | – | – | 51% |
14% | 21% | 11% | – | 55% | ||||
OnMedia (R-Messer) | July 10–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 7%[lower-alpha 1] | 45% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Braun | 208,602 | 41.17% | |
Republican | Todd Rokita | 151,967 | 29.99% | |
Republican | Luke Messer | 146,131 | 28.84% | |
Total votes | 506,700 | 100.00% |
Independent
Declared
- James Johnson, Jr.[60]
General election
Candidates
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
- Lucy Brenton (L)
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
- James Johnson, Jr. (I)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[61] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[62] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[64] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[65] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[66] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[67] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Joe Donnelly (D) | $16,100,528 | $13,872,981 | $2,321,981 |
Mike Braun (R) | $16,964,706 | $15,576,842 | $1,387,861 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[68] |
Endorsements
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[69][70]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[71]
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[72]
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Coburn (R-OK, former)[39]
- Joni Ernst (R-IA)[73]
- Lindsey Graham (R-SC)[74][75]
- David Perdue (R-GA)[76]
- Todd Young (R-IN)[77]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)[78]
- Mark Meadows, U.S. Representative (R-NC)[79]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative, 2018 Senate candidate (R-IN)[80]
- Governors
- State Senators
- State Representatives
- Ronald Bacon[40]
- Christopher Judy[40]
- Chris May[40]
- Bob Morris[40]
- Cabinet-level officials
- Kellyanne Conway, Counselor to the President[82][83]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary[83]
- Ivanka Trump, Advisor to the President[83]
- Individuals
- Dan Bongino, NRATV contributor[84][85]
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City[86][87]
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, American television news personality[88]
- Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame football coach[89]
- Bob Knight, former Indiana University basketball coach[90]
- Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the RNC[91]
- Oliver North, President of the National Rifle Association[92]
- Greg Pence, brother of Mike Pence[93]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[94]
- Organizations
- FreedomWorks[95]
- Indiana Right to Life[96]
- National Federation of Independent Business[97]
- National Right to Life[98]
- Republican Jewish Coalition[99]
- Tea Party Patriots[41]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[100]
- National Rifle Association[101]
- Indiana Manufacturers Association[102]
- National Organization for Marriage[103]
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[104][105]
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[9][10][11]
- Chuck Hagel, former United States Secretary of Defense (Republican)[106]
- U.S. Senators
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado[107]
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey[108]
- Chris Coons, U.S. Senator from Delaware[109]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada[110]
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois[111]
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois[112]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California[113]
- Doug Jones, U.S. Senator from Alabama[114][12]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[115]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator from Hawaii[116]
- Local officials
- John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives[117]
- Thomas McDermott Jr., Mayor of Hammond, Indiana[118]
- Individuals
- Victor Oladipo, professional basketball player for the Indiana Pacers[119][120]
- Amy Schumer, actress[121]
- Amy Siskind, activist and writer[122]
- Derrick Mayes, professional football player[123]
- Organizations
- Alliance for Retired Americans[124]
- Communications Workers of America[125]
- End Citizens United[13]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[126]
- National Education Association[127]
- United Automobile Workers[128]
- Derrick Mayes, professional football player[123]
- Newspapers
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Mike Braun (R) |
Lucy Brenton (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 41% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | – | – |
FOX News | October 27–30, 2018 | 722 LV | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 9% |
852 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 11% | ||
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | – | – |
NBC News/Marist | October 24–28, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.5% | 45% | 42% | 7% | <1% | 5% |
48% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% | ||||
800 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 9% | <1% | 7% | ||
47% | 45% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | 3% | 2% |
YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 975 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 8% |
Mason Strategies (R) | October 15–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 47% | 3% | – | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 14–17, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 5% |
SurveyUSA | October 12–16, 2018 | 816 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 40% | 8% | – | 11% |
Gravis Marketing | October 12–16, 2018 | 377 | ± 5.1% | 44% | 40% | 7% | – | 10% |
Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 7–10, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 800 | – | 39% | 43% | 7% | – | 5% |
FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 695 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 9% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 10% | ||
Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,181 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 3% | 8% |
FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 677 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
NBC News/Marist | August 26–29, 2018 | 576 LV | ± 5.0% | 44% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 6% |
49% | 43% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
816 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 8% | ||
48% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% | ||||
Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 7, 2018 | 1,420 | ± 2.6% | 51% | 39% | – | – | 11% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 952 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 49% | – | – | 4% |
Gravis Marketing | May 10–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 7% |
Results
On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Braun | 1,161,546 | 50.77% | +6.45% | |
Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 1,025,178 | 44.81% | -5.20% | |
Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 101,153 | 4.42% | -1.26% | |
Write-in | 70 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,287,947 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
By congressional district
Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts.
District | Braun | Donnelly | Elected Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 37.9% | 60.6% | Pete Visclosky |
2nd | 51.0% | 45.5% | Jackie Walorski |
3rd | 59.6% | 36.7% | Jim Banks |
4th | 57.9% | 37.4% | Jim Baird |
5th | 47.9% | 48.4% | Susan Brooks |
6th | 60.8% | 34.3% | Greg Pence |
7th | 31.8% | 64.5% | André Carson |
8th | 57.3% | 38.4% | Larry Bucshon |
9th | 54.3% | 41.5% | Trey Hollingsworth |
Notes
- Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.
References
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- Matt McKinney (August 10, 2017). "Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore David Long endorses Luke Messer for U.S. Senate". theindychannel.com.
- "Messer Gains Endorsement from Southwest Indiana State Rep". Luke Messer for Senate. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on March 10, 2018. Retrieved March 9, 2018.
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- Donald J. Trump. "Will be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana's next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!". Twitter.
- Mike Pence. "Congrats to @braun4indiana on his #INSen primary victory tonight! @RealDonaldTrump & I look forward to working with you in support of the #MAGA agenda. Mike Braun will make Hoosiers proud". Twitter.
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- Todd Young. "Congrats to Mike Braun on tonight's victory! Help keep the momentum going by following @braun4indiana for updates from the campaign trail". Twitter.
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- Eric Holcomb. "Hoosiers need someone who will support the kinds of things that have made Indiana a leading state for job creation, financial strength & stability, & workforce development. I believe that @braun4indiana is the right person to ensure our principles are pushed hard in Washington". Twitter.
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- Ronna McDaniel. "It's time to send Democrat Joe Donnelly packing and elect @braun4indiana to the Senate! #INSen". Twitter.
- Mike Braun [@braun4indiana] (October 22, 2018). "Join me, @DonaldJTrumpJr , @kimguilfoyle , & @GregPenceIN TODAY rallying Hoosiers to get out the vote and drain the swamp!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Donald Trump, Jr. (August 29, 2018). "Donald Trump Jr.: Hoosiers deserve better than Donnelly". Evansville Courier & Press.
- "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Mike Braun in Indiana Senate Race". FreedomWorks. June 4, 2018.
- "Indiana Right to Life PAC Endorses in Federal Races". Indiana Right to Life. April 3, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
- "Small Business Endorses Mike Braun for U.S. Senate". NFIB. September 4, 2018.
- "Pro-Life Group Endorses Mike Braun Over Pro-Abortion Joe Donnelly in Indiana Senate Race". LifeNews.com. July 12, 2018.
- "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
- Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
- Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
- Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
- "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- "All tickets distributed for former President Barack Obama's Indiana rally". October 31, 2018.
- "Indiana Dems: Obama visiting Gary for Donnelly rally on Sunday". Associated Press.
- Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
- Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
- Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
- "Kamala Harris makes fundraising pitch for Joe Donnelly". October 4, 2018.
- Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
- Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
- John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
- "Thomas McDermott on Twitter".
- "Victor Oladipo on Twitter".
- "Kevin Rader on Twitter". Twitter.
- "Amy Schumer on Twitter".
- Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
- Joe Donnelly. "Thanks Derrick Mayes for your support! Hoosiers, please make your plan to vote!". Twitter.
- "Retiree Group Endorses Sen. Joe Donnelly for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. October 9, 2018.
- "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
- "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org.
- "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
- "Indiana – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- Joe Donnelly. ""America needs more senators like Joe Donnelly. Indiana needs to re-elect him." Thank you, @JGfortwayne!". Twitter.
- "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". September 1, 2018.
- "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Joe Donnelly deserves re-election to U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
- "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Mike Braun is right choice for U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
- "Indiana Election Results". CNN. November 9, 2018.
- Lange, Kaitlin. "Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
- "Indiana Election Reults". in.gov/sos/elections/index.htm.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- GOP Primary Debate, February 20, 2018
- Official campaign websites