2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 5.9 percent, similar to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Turnout50.42%
 
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,161,546 1,025,178
Percentage 50.77% 44.81%

County results
Braun:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements

Joe Donnelly
Former U.S. Vice President
United States Senator
Organization

Results

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100.00%
Total votes 284,621 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Mike Braun
U.S. Senators
State Senators
State Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Luke Messer
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Todd Rokita
State-level officials
Former state party chairs
Local-level officials
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Luke
Messer
Todd
Rokita
Mike
Braun
Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% 44%
Gravis Marketing April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% 26% 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% 24% 9% 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% 28% 51%
14% 21% 11% 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results

Results by county:
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 29.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.84%
Total votes 506,700 100.00%

Independent

Declared

  • James Johnson, Jr.[60]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[64] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[67] Tossup November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[68]

Endorsements

Mike Braun (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State Senators
State Representatives
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Joe Donnelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Organizations
  • Indiana Chamber of Commerce[130]
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Mike
Braun (R)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 41%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 42%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43%
FOX News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42%
NBC News/Marist October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
48% 46% 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
47% 45% 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% 49% 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 3% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% 41% 40% 8% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% 44% 40% 7% 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 55% 45%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 39% 43% 7% 5%
FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% 46% 43% 3% 8%
FOX News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
NBC News/Marist August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
49% 43% 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
48% 42% 2% 9%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% 51% 39% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% 49% 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[135]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Braun 1,161,546 50.77% +6.45%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,025,178 44.81% -5.20%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 101,153 4.42% -1.26%
Write-in 70 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,287,947 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts.

District Braun Donnelly Elected
Representative
1st 37.9% 60.6% Pete Visclosky
2nd 51.0% 45.5% Jackie Walorski
3rd 59.6% 36.7% Jim Banks
4th 57.9% 37.4% Jim Baird
5th 47.9% 48.4% Susan Brooks
6th 60.8% 34.3% Greg Pence
7th 31.8% 64.5% André Carson
8th 57.3% 38.4% Larry Bucshon
9th 54.3% 41.5% Trey Hollingsworth

Notes

  1. Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References

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  92. Mike Braun [@braun4indiana] (October 22, 2018). "Join me, @DonaldJTrumpJr , @kimguilfoyle , & @GregPenceIN TODAY rallying Hoosiers to get out the vote and drain the swamp!" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  99. Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
  100. Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
  101. Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
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  105. Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
  106. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
  107. Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
  108. Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
  109. Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
  110. Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
  111. Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
  112. "Kamala Harris makes fundraising pitch for Joe Donnelly". October 4, 2018.
  113. Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
  114. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
  115. Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
  116. John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
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  122. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks Derrick Mayes for your support! Hoosiers, please make your plan to vote!". Twitter.
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  129. "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". September 1, 2018.
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Official campaign websites
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