2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary

The 2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary occurred in Georgia on March 1, 2016, as part of that election cycle's Super Tuesday. It took place ahead of the presidential election that November, and the state's Democratic primary was held on the same day.

2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)
76 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio
Home state New York Texas Florida
Delegate count 42 18 16
Popular vote 502,994 305,847 316,836
Percentage 38.81% 23.60% 24.45%
 
Candidate Ben Carson John Kasich
Home state Maryland Ohio
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 80,723 72,508
Percentage 6.23% 5.59%
Election results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
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Donald Trump won the primary, with 38.8% of all votes cast. Marco Rubio came in second, with 24.5% of the vote, and Ted Cruz came in third, with 23.6% of the vote. Of Georgia's 76 bound delegates, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz took home 42, 16, and 18, respectively.

State of the campaign

Leading up to Super Tuesday, Trump was already the front-runner, thanks in part to his commanding victory in the South Carolina primary. Despite this, Trump still needed many more delegates to clinch the nomination,[1] and the large number of delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday made that day's contests especially important. Politico's Kyle Cheney noted that "Super Tuesday could cripple every Republican presidential candidate not named Donald Trump," while also observing that Trump would almost certainly remain ahead of all his Republican opponents after the day's primaries and caucuses.[2]

Georgia's 76 delegates were the second-most of any state that held a Republican primary or caucus on Super Tuesday in 2016. This may have influenced Trump to hold a rally in Valdosta the day before Georgia's primary.[2][3] Because Georgia requires candidates to reach a 20% threshold to receive any of its delegates, this was seen as potentially problematic for Cruz and Rubio, both of whom had been polling around that threshold in Georgia at the time.[2] Nevertheless, there was speculation before Super Tuesday that Rubio would do better in Georgia's primary than in that day's other primaries.[4]

Opinion polling

Polls conducted shortly before the Georgia primary gave Trump a double-digit lead over his opponents in the state.[5] For instance, a poll conducted on February 28 by WSB-TV and Landmark Communications gave Trump a 19-point lead over his closest rival, Marco Rubio.[6] A CBS News poll before the primary similarly found that Georgia Republicans "overwhelmingly" perceived Trump as being on the side of ordinary people, rather than wealthy donors, while they perceived Rubio in the opposite light.[7]

Delegate allocation

76 delegates were at stake in the Georgia Republican primary. Of these, 10 were at-large delegates, 42 were district delegates who each represented one of the state's 14 congressional districts, three were Republican Party leaders, and 21 were bonus delegates. The 42 delegates corresponding to Georgia congressional districts were all bound, whereas the remaining 34 were unbound. The delegates were awarded according to a winner-take-most system. The winner of each congressional district in the state received all three of that district's delegates if they received a majority of the vote in the district.[8]

Results
Georgia Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 502,994 38.81% 42 0 42
Marco Rubio 316,836 24.45% 16 0 16
Ted Cruz 305,847 23.60% 18 0 18
Ben Carson 80,723 6.23% 0 0 0
John Kasich 72,508 5.59% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 7,686 0.59% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,910 0.22% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,625 0.20% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,486 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,146 0.09% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 539 0.04% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 428 0.03% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 236 0.02% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,295,964 100.00% 76 0 76
Source: The Green Papers

Trump won the Georgia primary with about half a million votes, representing 38.8% of all votes cast. He won 42 of the state's 76 delegates.[8] Trump won 155 out of Georgia's 159 counties. The only four he did not win were Clarke, Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton counties, all of which Rubio won comfortably.[9] Trump's strongest performance was in Atkinson County, where he received 65.9% of the vote.[10]

Analysis

Trump's victory in the Georgia primary, as well as in most other Super Tuesday states, was seen as a bad sign for Cruz's campaign, as Cruz himself had described Super Tuesday as "the single most important day in the entire Republican primary."[11] Rubio's poor performance in the primary was also bad news for his campaign, since the suburbs of Atlanta and Savannah had high numbers of professional voters who had been viewed as inclined to support him.[12]

References
  1. Kopan, Tal (2016-02-23). "Republican Party math: Can Donald Trump be beat?". CNN. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  2. Cheney, Kyle (2016-02-28). "Breaking down the GOP's Super Tuesday map". POLITICO. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  3. Jacobs, Jennifer (2016-02-29). "Black students ejected from Trump rally in Ga". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  4. Enten, Harry (2016-02-29). "Super Guide to Super Tuesday — Republican Edition". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  5. Lee, Timothy B. (2016-03-01). "Donald Trump wins Georgia Republican primary". Vox. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  6. "Georgia Republican Presidential Primary". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  7. "Poll: Donald Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia; Ted Cruz hanging on in Texas". CBS News. 2016-02-28. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  8. "Georgia Republican Delegation 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  9. Santos, Ana (2016-03-02). "Donald Trump won all but these four counties in Georgia". Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
  10. Santos, Ana (2016-03-05). "Which Georgia counties voted for Donald Trump the most?". Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  11. Goldmacher, Shane (2016-03-01). "Trump takes 7 Super Tuesday states, Cruz takes 3". POLITICO. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  12. "Donald Trump wins Georgia Republican primary". Vox. 2016-03-01. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
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