2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13.
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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating former state legislator John Carroll.
Background
In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[1][2] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[3]
Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[4] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.[5]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Makani Christensen[6]
- Tutz Honeychurch[6]
- Arturo Reyes, perennial candidate[6]
- Brian Schatz, incumbent Senator[5]
- Miles Shiratori[6]
Declined
- Colleen Hanabusa, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for HI-01)[7]
- Mark Takai, U.S. Representative[8] (died)
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[8]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 162,891 | 86.17% | |
| Democratic | Makani Christensen | 11,898 | 6.29% | |
| Democratic | Miles Shiratori | 8,620 | 4.56% | |
| Democratic | Arturo Reyes | 3,819 | 2.02% | |
| Democratic | Tutz Honeychurch | 1,815 | 0.96% | |
| Total votes | 189,043 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Declared
- John Carroll, former State Senator, former State Representative, nominee for US Senate in 2000 and perennial candidate[6]
- Karla Gottschalk, attorney[6]
- Eddie Pirkowski, perennial candidate[6]
- John Roco, perennial candidate[6]
Withdrew
Declined
- Cam Cavasso, former State Representative and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, 2010, and 2014
- Charles Djou, former U.S. Representative (running for Mayor of Honolulu)
Results
Results by county:
Carroll—70–80%
Carroll—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Carroll | 26,747 | 74.58% | |
| Republican | John P. Roco | 3,956 | 11.03% | |
| Republican | Karla Gottschalk | 3,045 | 8.49% | |
| Republican | Eddie Pirkowski | 2,114 | 5.89% | |
| Total votes | 35,862 | 100.00% | ||
Other primaries
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Michael Kokoski | 909 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 909 | 100.00% | ||
Declared
- Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[6]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Joy Allison | 217 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 217 | 100.00% | ||
Declared
- John Giuffre[6]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent | John Giuffre | 111 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 111 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Schatz (D)[13] | $3,316,074 | $1,195,572 | $3,074,380 |
| John Carroll (R) |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Safe D | September 9, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe D | September 19, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[16] | Safe D | September 2, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[17] | Safe D | September 16, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[18] | Safe D | September 15, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schatz (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 67% | 29% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 435 | ± 4.6% | 68% | 26% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 467 | ± 4.6% | 69% | 27% | 4% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brian Schatz (incumbent) | 306,604 | 73.61% | +3.83% | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 92,653 | 22.24% | -5.46% | |
| Constitution | Joy Allison | 9,103 | 2.19% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Michael Kokowski | 6,809 | 1.63% | -0.89% | |
| American Shopping | John Giuffre | 1,393 | 0.33% | N/A | |
| Total votes | '416,562' | '100.0%' | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References
- Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
- Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012.
- Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
- "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
- Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
- "Federal State County Sorted by: Contest" (PDF). Hawaii Secretary of State. Retrieved June 8, 2016.
- Stephen O'Harrow (August 18, 2014). "Dan Inouye and Brian Schatz: A Lesson in Hawaii Politics". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015.
- Blair, Chad (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015.
- "Statewide Results" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
- "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 18, 2016. Retrieved August 16, 2016.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
- "Charles Collins for US Senate". Retrieved December 29, 2015.
- "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
- "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
- "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
- "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections. August 16, 2016. p. 1. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
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