2016 United States Senate election in Maryland

The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Maryland
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Chris Van Hollen Kathy Szeliga
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,659,907 972,557
Percentage 60.9% 35.7%
County Results

Van Hollen:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Szeliga:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

Elections in Maryland
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate.[1] Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.

Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland.

Background

Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history[2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960.[3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1]

In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices."[4] Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Debates
Dates Location Van Hollen Edwards Link
March 25, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements
Donna Edwards
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Governors
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Federal politicians

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Donna
Edwards		 Chris
Van Hollen		 Other Undecided
Monmouth University April 18–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 36% 52% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 492 ± 4.4% 33% 42% — 25%
Marist College April 5–9, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 38% 44% — 18%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 30 – April 3, 2016 539 ± 4.5% 44% 40% — 16%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research March 28–30, 2016 604 ± 4.9% 40% 45% — 15%
University of Baltimore March 4–9, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 34% 28% — 31%
Gonzales Research February 29 – March 4, 2016 411 ± 5.0% 41% 42% — 17%
Goucher College February 13–18, 2016 307 ± 5.6% 39% 37% — 24%
Gonzales Research January 11–16, 2016 402 ± 5% 36% 38% — 24%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015 419 ± 4.8% 19% 28% 40%[77] 13%
31% 45% — 24%
Washington Post/University of Maryland October 8–11, 2015 1,006 ± 3.5% 20% 20% 33%[77] 27%
Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) August 3–9, 2015 600 ± 4% 42% 37% — 21%
Mellman Group (D-Cummings) March 19–22, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 23% 22% 29%[77] 27%

Results
Democratic primary results[78]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 470,320 53.2%
Democratic Donna Edwards 343,620 38.9%
Democratic Freddie Dickson 14,856 1.7%
Democratic Theresa Scaldaferri 13,178 1.5%
Democratic Violet Staley 10,244 1.2%
Democratic Lih Young 8,561 1.0%
Democratic Charles Smith 7,912 0.9%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 7,161 0.8%
Democratic Blaine Taylor 5,932 0.7%
Democratic Ed Tinus 2,560 0.3%
Total votes 884,344 100.0%

Van Hollen won the April 26, 2016 primary in each of Maryland's counties except Prince George's and Charles, where Donna Edwards received more votes. Democratic voters in the city of Baltimore also preferred Edwards.[79]

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Chrys Kefalas
Newspapers
Kathy Szeliga
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kathy
Szeliga		 Richard
Douglas		 Barry
Glassman		 Chrys
Kefalas		 Anthony
Seda		 Undecided
Marist College April 5–9, 2016 368 ± 5.1% 20% 13% - 9% - 57%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 30–April 3, 2016 283 ± 7.5% 15% 9% - 11% - 46%
University of Baltimore March 4–8, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 6% 1% - 2% <1% 79%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015 307 ± 5.6% 15% 9% 8% 5% 4% 59%

Results
Republican primary results[78]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kathy Szeliga 135,337 35.6%
Republican Chris Chaffee 52,066 13.7%
Republican Chrys Kefalas 36,340 9.6%
Republican Richard Douglas 29,007 7.6%
Republican Dave Wallace 23,226 6.1%
Republican Sean Connor 21,727 5.7%
Republican Lynn Richardson 20,792 5.5%
Republican John Graziani 16,722 4.4%
Republican Greg Holmes 16,148 4.3%
Republican Mark McNicholas 9,988 2.6%
Republican Joe Hooe 8,282 2.2%
Republican Anthony Seda 3,873 1.0%
Republican Richard Shawver 3,155 0.8%
Republican Garry Yarrington 2,988 0.8%
Total votes 379,651 100.0%

Szeliga won the April 26, 2016 primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.[79]

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Results
Green Party primary results[119]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Margaret Flowers 125 98.0%
Green None of the above 3 2.0%
Total votes 128 100.0%

Independents
  • Greg Dorsey[6]
  • Steve Gladstone[6]
  • Edward Shlikas[6]
  • Kay Young[6]

Libertarian Party

General election

Candidates

Debates
Dates Location Van Hollen Szeliga Link
October 26, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements
Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Kathy Szeliga
Governors
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals

c* Audrey Scott, former chair of the Maryland Republican Party[109]

  • Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor of Maryland and former chair of the Republican National Committee[129]
  • Diana Waterman, chairwoman of the Maryland Republican Party[127]
Statewide politicians
Newspapers
Organizations

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[137] Safe D September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[138] Safe D September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[139] Safe D September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[140] Safe D September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[141] Safe D October 20, 2016

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Van Hollen (D)		 Kathy
Szeliga (R)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,216 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,056 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 851 ± 4.6% 66% 32% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 772 ± 4.6% 67% 31% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 695 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 740 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
University of Maryland/Washington Post September 27–30, 2016 706 ± 4.0% 58% 29% 5% 6%
Goucher College September 17–20, 2016 514 ± 4.3% 54% 24% 2% 19%
OpinionWorks August 18–30, 2016 754 ± 3.6% 55% 26% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 879 ± 3.3% 53% 25% — 22%

Results
United States Senate election in Maryland, 2016 [142]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 1,659,907 60.89% -1.30%
Republican Kathy Szeliga 972,557 35.67% -0.08%
Green Margaret Flowers 89,970 3.30% +2.17%
Write-in 3,736 0.14% +0.03%
Total votes 2,726,170 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county
County Szeliga Votes Van Hollen Votes Flowers Votes Totals
Allegany 62.06 18,072 33.52 9,761 4.30 1,253 29,218
Anne Arundel 48.42 128,268 48.30 127,961 3.17 8,389 265,023
Baltimore (City) 12.49 29,306 82.59 193,819 4.71 11,053 234,789
Baltimore (County) 40.29 155,079 56.41 217,151 3.18 12,251 385,044
Calvert 55.41 25,431 40.38 18,534 4.04 1,855 45,996
Caroline 64.24 8,903 28.65 4,596 2.52 349 13,959
Carroll 66.67 60,195 28.97 27,649 2.62 2,370 90,394
Cecil 62.31 27,372 29.58 14,846 3.77 1,654 44,030
Charles 33.14 25,507 63.20 48,994 3.07 2,362 77,068
Dorchester 52.33 7,763 39.55 6,697 2.43 360 14,935
Frederick 49.37 60,516 44.78 57,084 3.92 4,809 122,672
Garrett 76.58 10,210 18.32 2,696 3.07 409 13,433
Harford 60.81 80,355 35.12 47,858 2.85 3,772 132,233
Howard 35.11 55,888 63.26 97,622 3.43 5,459 159,293
Kent 49.93 4,936 45.66 4,709 2.40 237 9,986
Montgomery 21.94 103,401 74.51 354,149 2.81 13,269 471,489
Prince George's 8.95 34,067 88.17 334,265 3.23 12,305 380,782
Queen Anne's 65.06 17,066 30.60 8,472 2.45 640 26,237
St. Mary's 58.53 28,207 42.41 17,980 4.02 1,937 48,289
Somerset 53.60 5,178 35.14 4,277 2.03 196 9,761
Talbot 53.55 10,861 44.21 8,967 2.14 435 20,381
Washington 58.96 37,278 36.87 23,313 4.03 2,545 63,323
Wicomico 52.73 22,027 44.00 18,382 3.12 1,305 41,875
Worcester 60.50 16,731 36.61 10,125 2.73 756 27,753

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