2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
November 6, 2018
Turnout56.72%
 
Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,214,478 1,938,818
Percentage 52.3% 45.8%
County Results

Stabenow:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

James:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elections in Michigan
Federal government
U.S. president
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
Secretary of State elections
Auditor General elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
1996
Proposal E
2004
Proposal 04-2
2006
Proposal 06-2
2012
Proposal 1
Proposal 2
Proposal 3
Proposal 4
Proposal 5
Proposal 6
Detroit
Mayoral elections
Flint
Mayoral elections
Grand Rapids
Mayoral elections
Lansing
Mayoral elections

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.50% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

Democratic primary

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew
  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow
Organizations
Individuals

Results
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 1,045,450 100.00%
Total votes 1,045,450 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Failed to qualify
  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996[18][16]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements
John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Notable Figures

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[70]

Polling
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Sandy
Pensler		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 518,564 54.67%
Republican Sandy Pensler 429,885 45.32%
Write-in 57 <0.01%
Total votes 948,506 100.00%

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D) $17,449,325.17 $15,720,981.25 $2,842,613.58
John James (R) $9,838,137.84 $7,953,403.16 $1,884,735.02
Source: Federal Election Commission[74]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[75] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[76] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Safe D November 5, 2018
CNN[78] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[79] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[80][lower-alpha 2] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. Not yet released, but is Republican primary subsample of full 800 voter sample in Michigan
  2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
Debbie Stabenow (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Individuals
John James (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators[38][39][40]
State Representatives[38]
Judges
Cabinet-level Officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
Individuals
Local Officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling










Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Stabenow (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other Undecided
Mitchell Research November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 49% 46% 1% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 1,817 ± 2.3% 53% 44% 1% 2%
Mitchell Research November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 53% 46% 0% 1%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 880 – 49% 47% 3%[97] –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 52% 36% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 764 ± 3.6% 54% 41% – 6%
Glengariff Group October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 36% 3%[98] 8%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 52% 43% 1% 4%
Mitchell Research October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 52% 46% 0% 2%
Target-Insyght October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 53% 43% 4%[99] 1%
EPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% 5% 4%
The Tarrance Group (R-James) October 20–22, 2018 605 ± 4.1% 48% 41% 4% 7%
Michigan State University October 13–22, 2018 169 – 49% 42% – –
Marketing Resource Group October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 37% – 5%
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 8%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 35% 3% 10%
EPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 5% 6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 55% 35% 4% 6%
Target-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 55% 40% – –
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 54% 41% – 5%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 53% 35% – 11%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 2% 10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 51% 35% – 14%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 2% 13%
The Tarrance Group (R-James) August 11–14, 2018 602 ± 4.1% 49% 38% 3% 9%
Emerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%

Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[100] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats.

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018 [101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 2,214,478 52.26% -6.54%
Republican John James 1,938,818 45.76% +7.78%
Green Marcia Squier 40,204 0.95% +0.35%
Taxpayers George Huffman III 27,251 0.65% +0.09%
Natural Law John Howard Wilhelm 16,502 0.39% +0.15%
Write-in 18 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 4,237,271 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

References
  1. "John James endorsement from President Donald Trump after primary".
  2. "Green Party of Michigan Nominating Convention".
  3. "2018 Michigan Official General Election Results - 11/06/2018". mielections.us.
  4. "Stabenow defeats James in Michigan's U.S. Senate race". Detroit News.
  5. Demas, Susan J. (October 2, 2015). "Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?". MLive.com. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  6. Everett, Burgess (November 17, 2016). "Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  7. Oosting, Jonathan (February 11, 2017). "Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  8. "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  9. "Major Environmental Groups Endorse Sen. Debbie Stabenow for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. May 2, 2018.
  10. "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
  11. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
  12. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". July 16, 2012.
  13. Handler, Chelsea [@ChelseaHandler] (July 17, 2018). "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2018 – via Twitter.
  14. "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018".
  15. "Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race".
  16. "2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  17. "Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run".
  18. Boothe, Daniel. "Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate". Retrieved 2017-10-24.
  19. Gray, Kathleen (February 19, 2017). "Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  20. "Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate". Ultimate Classic Rock.
  21. McCollum, Brian (October 24, 2017). "Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  22. Nann Burke, Melissa (February 1, 2017). "Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
  23. "U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run".
  24. "Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott".
  25. "Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan".
  26. "Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate".
  27. Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and an African American leader..." Twitter.
  28. Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  29. Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
  30. "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". 5 December 2017. Archived from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
  31. "Congressman Jack Bergman Endorses John James". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-08-28. Retrieved 2018-08-28.
  32. "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. 10 July 2018.
  33. "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". 20 November 2017. Archived from the original on 8 December 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
  34. "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". 7 November 2017. Archived from the original on 8 December 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
  35. "RELEASE: U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar Endorses John James for U.S. Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-10-11. Retrieved 2018-10-11.
  36. West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website. Archived from the original on May 14, 2018.
  37. John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
  38. "30 Conservative Republicans from the Michigan Legislature Endorse John James for Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-06-12. Retrieved 2018-05-30.
  39. "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". 5 July 2018. Archived from the original on 8 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  40. "The constituents of my Senate District..." 10 July 2018.
  41. "Michigan Cattlemen's Association, Fmr. Farm Bureau President, Highlight Strong Coalition of Farmers For John James". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-09-19. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  42. "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
  43. "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of American Hero Robert O'Neill - John James for Senate". 8 November 2017. Archived from the original on 23 June 2018. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
  44. "Dean Cain on Twitter".
  45. John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
  46. "Hugh Hewitt on Twitter". twitter.com.
  47. Cavitt, Mark (July 23, 2018). "Ted Nugent endorses John James for U.S. Senate". The Oakland Press.
  48. "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  49. Donald Trump Jr. "Excited to see @JohnJamesMI and @SchuetteOnDuty win big tonight in Michigan. They're both great candidates who are #MAGA to the core. #MISEN #MIGOV". Twitter.
  50. "Sandy Pensler on Twitter". twitter.com.
  51. "Michigan Agricultural Icon Wayne Wood Endorses John James for US Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-09-19. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  52. "John James on Twitter".
  53. "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". Archived from the original on 2018-07-08. Retrieved 2018-07-08.
  54. John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
  55. "COver 350 Michigan Veterans Highlight John James Veterans Coalition". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-09-06. Retrieved 2018-09-06.
  56. "John James for Senate in Michigan". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 30, 2018.
  57. "ACU Endorses John James". American Conservative Union. March 22, 2018. Archived from the original on March 27, 2018. Retrieved March 26, 2018.
  58. "John James Emerges as Sole Conservative to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow - John James for Senate". 25 April 2018. Archived from the original on 28 April 2018. Retrieved 27 April 2018.
  59. "James Raises $1.17 Million, Quadruples Grassroots Fundraising Base during Q1 - John James for Senate". 11 April 2018. Archived from the original on 28 April 2018. Retrieved 27 April 2018.
  60. "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  61. "GR Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Endorsements". Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce. June 6, 2018.
  62. "SBA List Endorses John James for U.S. Senate in MI - Susan B. Anthony List". sba-list.org.
  63. "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  64. "Chamber Announces Endorsements for US Senate, AG and Key Congressional Races". Michigan Chamber of Commerce. June 27, 2018.
  65. LeBlanc, Beth (October 10, 2018). "Chamber endorses James for U.S. Senate, criticizes Stabenow's record". The Detroit News.
  66. "In GOP Senate primary, John James". The Detroit News. July 19, 2018.
  67. "Sen. Rand Paul endorses Pensler in Michigan GOP Primary". Fox17. 30 July 2018. Retrieved 31 July 2018.
  68. "Republicans in Trump Country Unite Behind Sandy Pensler for US Senate". Pensler for Senate. April 9, 2018.
  69. "Bob Young, Jr". facebook.com.
  70. "Pro-life record, support of Trump tackled in Michigan GOP U.S. Senate debate". mlive.com.
  71. "Mich. House OKs dead lawmaker's bill in vote of unity".
  72. Cwiek, Sarah (August 31, 2017). "Green Party candidates jump in race for Michigan governor, U.S. Senator". Michigan Radio. Retrieved October 27, 2017.
  73. motownbelle (20 October 2017). "Why I Suspended My Senatorial Campaign" – via YouTube.
  74. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved September 24, 2018.
  75. "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  76. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  77. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  78. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  79. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  80. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  81. Debbie Stabenow. "Thanks @BarackObama! #MiSen #MadeInMichigan". Twitter.
  82. Joe Biden. "This Thursday evening I'll be in Lansing, Michigan to support @ElissaSlotkin, Debbie @Stabenow, @GretchenWhitmer and @Garlin". Twitter.
  83. Gary Peters. "I can't think of anyone who works harder or cares more deeply about her state than @Stabenow. I would know: I've seen her focus, hard-work & effectiveness up close in the Senate. I can't wait to vote for my good friend. Read about why I'm supporting her". Twitter.
  84. Dan Kildee. "We deserve leaders who understand that a strong middle class means a strong country. We deserve leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare and expand access to affordable health care. That's why we deserve @GretchenWhitmer, @Stabenow & Democrats up and down the ballot". Twitter.
  85. Brenda Lawrence. "Attended four churches in Pontiac today with our United States Senator Debbie @Stabenow, my mentor and dear friend. I am so excited to vote for her November 6th and I hope you join me! #TeamBrenda #PrayersUp @TeamStabenow". Twitter.
  86. Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
  87. "Debbie Stabenow – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  88. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection.
  89. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". 16 July 2012.
  90. "Michigan – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  91. Rudy Giuliani. "Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He's the future of our party. Let's make that future now.. Vote for Don James". Twitter.
  92. Rudy Giuliani. "Sorry for the mistake with JOHN JAMES first name but you'd be making one if you don't elect him to Senate from Michigan.The tweet was not planned but spontaneous.I saw his interview and record-military, business-and said this is a true leader,not the same old. He's exceptional". Twitter.
  93. Levin, Mark R. (30 October 2018). "John James for Senate in Michigan".
  94. Peterson, Jordan B. (11 October 2018). "I met John James in New York and he is one impressive character: a truly powerful, direct speaker @JohnJamesMI".
  95. "James would bring fresh perspective to Senate for Michigan". Iron Mountain Daily News. October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  96. "James the right choice for Senate". Daily Press. October 29, 2018.
  97. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  98. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
  99. Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  100. Weigel, David (1 November 2018). "The Trailer: Why Michigan's Senate candidate is asking Trump for an election eve visit". Fred Ryan. Retrieved 15 April 2019.
  101. "2018 Michigan general election results". Retrieved 12 Jun 2019.
Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.