2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

The 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma, concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Not to be confused with 2014 United States Senate election in Oklahoma.

2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
November 4, 2014
 
Nominee James Lankford Connie Johnson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 557,002 237,923
Percentage 67.9% 29.0%
Country Results
Lankford:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Tom Coburn
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

James Lankford
Republican

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This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter of term limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senate in 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-elected in 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-election in 2016.[1][2]

In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the 113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015.[3][4] As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office.[5][6]

Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances,[lower-alpha 1] Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable".[8]

Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. Representative James Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State Senator Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. Lankford easily won re-election to a full six-year term in 2016.

Republican primary

By April 2014, Lankford and T.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with the Tea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures including Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Sarah Palin and organizations including FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting Congressman Tom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon.[9] Local Tea Party groups also criticised the national conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support".[10]

In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern.[11]

By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely.[12] Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on the primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senator Thad Cochran and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe of The Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma.[13] Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m.[14]

In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state's burgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran the Falls Creek Baptist Youth Camp,[15] and the fact that his congressional district is based in Oklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market in Tulsa.[12][14] Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others like Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates."[14] State Senator David Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened."[14]

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Randy Brogdon
Organizations
  • Oklahoma Conservative PAC[32]
  • Tulsa Area Republicans Assembly[33]
James Lankford
Individuals
State Legislators[37]
T.W. Shannon
Individuals
Organizations
State Legislators[50]
Declined to endorse

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Randy
Brogdon		 Andy
Craig		 Kevin
Crow		 James
Lankford		 Eric
McCray		 T.W.
Shannon		 J. C.
Watts		 Jason
Weger		 Other Undecided
Harper Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014 627 ± 3.91% — — — 37% — 8% 40% 2% — 13%
— — — 54% — 18% — 1% — 27%
Tarrance Group* February 10–12, 2014 500 ± 4.9% — — 3% 47% — 17% — — — 33%
Public Opinion Strategies February 9–11, 2014 ? ± ? — — — 51% — 16% — — 1% 32%
Public Opinion Strategies March 16–17, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 7% — — 37% — 28% — — 3% 25%
Public Opinion Strategies April 21–22, 2014 500 ± 4.48% 7% — — 32% — 42% — — 3% 16%
NSON Opinion Strategy April 23–29, 2014 400 ± ? 3.5% 1% 0.3% 30.8% — 32% — — 1.0% 32.5%
American Viewpoint April 27–29, 2014 ? ± ? — — — 36% — 34% — — ? ?
SoonerPoll May 5–10, 2014 580 ± 4.07% 4.5% 0.6% 1.7% 33.8% 0.6% 31.9% — 1.5% — 25.4%
Tarrance Group* May 12–14, 2014 501 ± 4.5% 5% — — 43% — 33% — — — 18%
American Viewpoint May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 4% — — 48% — 26% — — 3% 18%
Public Opinion Strategies June 7–9, 2014 600 ± 4.81% — — — 39% — 37% — — 6% 18%
Tarrance Group* June 9–11, 2014 500 ± 4.5% — — — 41% — 34% — — 7% 18%
SoonerPoll June 14–18, 2014 415 ± 4.81% 3% — — 41% — 38% — — 2% 16%
SoonerPoll June 19–21, 2014 840 ± 3.38% 4.2% 0.4% 1.4% 43.4% 0.9% 34.9% — 1.5% — 13.3%
  • * Internal poll for James Lankford campaign

Results
Republican primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican James Lankford 152,749 57.24%
Republican T.W. Shannon 91,854 34.42%
Republican Randy Brogdon 12,934 4.85%
Republican Kevin Crow 2,828 1.06%
Republican Andy Craig 2,427 0.91%
Republican Eric McCray 2,272 0.85%
Republican Jason Weger 1,794 0.67%
Total votes 266,858 100.00%

Democratic primary

Declared

Withdrew
  • Charles Jenkins, retired federal employee[55]

Declined

Endorsements
Connie Johnson
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Patrick
Hayes		 Connie
Johnson		 Jim
Rogers		 Other Undecided
SoonerPoll May 5–10, 2014 631 ± 3.9% 5% 9.2% 9.4% — 76.3%
SoonerPoll June 19–21, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 6.4% 13.2% 5.4% — 75.1%

Results
Democratic primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Connie Johnson 71,462 43.84%
Democratic Jim Rogers 57,598 35.34%
Democratic Patrick Hayes 33,943 20.82%
Total votes 163,003 100.00%

Runoff
Democratic primary runoff results[66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Connie Johnson 54,762 57.99%
Democratic Jim Rogers 39,664 42.01%
Total votes 94,426 100.00%

Independents

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Solid R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[69] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[70] Safe R November 3, 2014

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 James
Lankford (R)		 Connie
Johnson (D)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,302 ± 4.7% 56% 34% 6% 5%
Rasmussen August 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 58% 29% 6% 7%
Sooner Poll August 28–30, 2014 603 ± 3.99% 58% 28% 3%[71] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 821 ± 5% 61% 28% 1% 10%
Sooner Poll September 27–29, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 56% 28% 4% 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,244 ± 3% 65% 24% 0% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 995 ± 5% 63% 29% 0% 8%
Sooner Poll October 25–29, 2014 949 ± 3.18% 59% 28% 4%[71] 9%

Results
United States Senate special election in Oklahoma, 2014[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican James Lankford 557,002 67.85% -2.79%
Democratic Connie Johnson 237,923 28.98% +2.85%
Independent Mark T. Beard 25,965 3.17% N/A
Total votes 820,890 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also

Notes
  1. "No special election shall be called if the vacancy occurs after March 1 of any even-numbered year if the term of the office expires the following year. In such case, the candidate elected to the office at the regular General Election shall be appointed by the Governor to fill the unexpired term."[7]

References
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  2. Kasperowicz, Pete (August 16, 2011). "Coburn reaffirms term-limit pledge, won't run in 2016". thehill.com. Retrieved December 27, 2012.
  3. Murphy, Sean (January 17, 2014). "Okla. Sen. Coburn to Retire After Current Session". ABC News. Retrieved January 17, 2014.
  4. Edwards, A (January 17, 2014). "Oklahoma will hold special election to fill Coburn's U.S. Senate seat after retirement". kfor.com. Retrieved January 17, 2014.
  5. Michael Bates (January 16, 2014). "Replacing Tom Coburn: Oklahoma's congressional special election laws". BatesLine. Retrieved January 20, 2014.
  6. "Governor Mary Fallin Comments on Dr. Tom Coburn's Announced Retirement from the U.S. Senate". ok.gov. January 17, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2014.
  7. "2006 Oklahoma Code - Title 26. — Elections". law.justia.com. Retrieved January 20, 2014.
  8. "Oklahoma Sen. Coburn announces early retirement". PBS. January 17, 2014. Retrieved January 18, 2014.
  9. Burgess Everett (April 24, 2014). "Tea party eats its own in Oklahoma". Politico. Retrieved April 28, 2014.
  10. Chris Casteel (April 26, 2014). "Oklahoma Tea Party leaders call T.W. Shannon a 'poser'". Tulsa World. Retrieved July 28, 2014.
  11. Alexandra Jaffe (June 12, 2014). "Coburn slams negative attacks". The Hill. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  12. Alexis Levinson (June 18, 2014). "Lankford Builds Momentum in Oklahoma Senate Race". Roll Call. Retrieved July 28, 2014.
  13. Alexandra Jaffe (June 11, 2014). "GOP primary in Oklahoma gets negative". The Hill. Retrieved July 28, 2014.
  14. Alexis Levinson (June 25, 2014). "How James Lankford Won Big in Oklahoma (Video)". Roll Call. Retrieved August 27, 2014.
  15. Chris Casteel (October 12, 2014). "Falls Creek runs deep: Oklahoma Rep. James Lankford's first campaign relied on faith, connections". News OK. Retrieved November 21, 2014.
  16. Russell Mills (March 3, 2014). "Randy Brogdon announces US Senate run". KRMG. Retrieved March 3, 2014.
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  18. Troxtell, Adam (February 11, 2014). "Crow confident in face of obstacles to reach Senate". The Express-Star. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
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  27. Casteel, Chris (January 27, 2014). "Former Gov. Frank Keating says he won't run for U.S. Senate". The Oklahoman. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
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  32. OCPAC Endorses Randy Brogdon; He Claims ‘True conservative’ Mantle | The McCarville Report
  33. Twitter / RandyBrogdon: I am happy to receive the
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  71. Mark Beard (I)
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