2014 Texas gubernatorial election

The 2014 Texas gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry, who had served since the resignation of then-Governor George W. Bush on December 21, 2000, declined to run for an unprecedented fourth full term, making this the first open election for governor since 1990.

See also: 2014 Texas elections

2014 Texas gubernatorial election
November 4, 2014
Turnout33.7% (of registered voters)
25.0% (of voting age population)[1]
 
Nominee Greg Abbott Wendy Davis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,796,547 1,835,596
Percentage 59.3% 38.9%
County results
Abbott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Davis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Rick Perry
Republican

 Elected Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican

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Government

The election took place between nominees who were selected on March 4, 2014: Republican State Attorney General Greg Abbott and Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis. Also on the ballot were Libertarian Party candidate Kathie Glass[2] and Green Party candidate Brandon Parmer.[3] Abbott was projected to carry the election, and ultimately won handily with a 20 percentage point advantage.[4] Exit polls showed Abbott winning Whites (72% to 25%), while Davis received majorities among African Americans (92% to 7%) and Hispanics (55% to 44%). Abbott won roughly half of Hispanic men, 54% of all women, and 62% of married women.[5]

Abbott took office on January 20, 2015, as the 48th Governor of Texas.

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Greg Abbott
Tom Pauken

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Greg
Abbott		 Lisa
Fritsch		 Larry
Kilgore		 Miriam
Martinez		 Tom
Pauken		 Other Undecided
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 461 ± 4.56% 90% 4% 1% 5% — — —
UoT/Texas Tribune October 18–27, 2013 519 ± 5.02% 50% 3% 1% 2% 2% — 42%
Texas Lyceum September 6–20, 2013 279 ± 5.87% 22% — 2% 1% 0% — 74%

Results
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Abbott 1,224,014 91.48
Republican Lisa Fritsch 59,221 4.42
Republican Miriam Martinez 35,585 2.65
Republican Larry Kilgore 19,055 1.42
Total votes 1,337,875 100

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Wendy Davis

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Wendy
Davis		 Ray
Madrigal		 Other Undecided
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 263 ± 6.04% 87% 13% — —

Results
Results by county:
  Davis—>90%
  Davis—80–90%
  Davis—70–80%
  Davis—60–70%
  Davis—50–60%
  Tie
  Madrigal—50–60%
  Madrigal—60–70%
  No vote
Democratic primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Wendy Davis 432,595 78.08
Democratic Ray Madrigal 121,419 21.91
Total votes 554,014 100

Libertarian nomination

Declared
  • Robert Bell, pharmaceutical executive and chemist[35]
  • Robert Garrett, veteran, helicopter mechanic and prison officer[36]
  • Kathie Glass, attorney[37]
  • Robert "Star" Locke, rancher, building contractor, veteran and perennial candidate[38]

Withdrew

Results

Kathie Glass was nominated at the 2014 party convention.[2]

Green nomination

Declared

Independents

Declared

Declined

Primary analysis

In the primary election, Greg Abbott polled 787,766 more votes than Wendy Davis though both were considered certain winners of their party nominations. The Republican turnout overall exceeded the Democrat strength by 786,487, nearly the same gap as that between Abbott and Davis.[46]

Both parties saw their turnout decline from 2010. The GOP had 151,101 fewer primary voters in 2014 than in 2010; the Democrats declined by 133,354. Republicans had a total turnout of 9.8 percent in 2014; the Democrats, 3.7 percent.[46]

Political scientist Mark P. Jones of Rice University in Houston, declared that the primary returns "looks bad for Democrats. There also wasn't very much going on [for Democrats] in 2010, yet more people voted in 2010 than voted in 2014. ... Instead of moving toward turning Texas blue, they are moving back towards Texas as an even redder state."[47]

Davis' intraparty rival and political unknown Ray Madrigal (born c. 1942) of Corpus Christi finished with nearly 21 percent of the vote, but he still outpolled the nominee in two high-profile South Texas counties with large numbers of Hispanic voters, Webb (56-44 percent) and Hidalgo (53-47 percent). In the smaller Willacy and LaSalle counties, Madrigal finished ahead of Davis with nearly 61 and 58 percent, respectively.[46]

In the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, a candidate similar to Madrigal, Gary Espinosa, polled 22.2 percent of the vote against incumbent Ann Richards, who was thereafter unseated by George W. Bush. Richards remains thus far the last Democrat to have served as governor of Texas. Despite the similarity with 1994, Davis told a candidate forum after the primary that she expected no difficulty in attracting large Hispanic support in South Texas in her campaign against Abbott.[48]

Davis advisor Matt Angle said that he believed the Republicans performed poorly in the primary and would be damaged in the general election by rhetoric against illegal immigration in the heated primary race for lieutenant governor, which continued to a runoff between the incumbent David Dewhurst and the frontrunner, State Senator Dan Patrick, both of Houston. Conversely, Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak said that the Democrats missed an opportunity to bring voters to the polls in a show of strength: "If they think they can skip the primary and have a stunning victory [in the general election], that's extremely naïve."[47]

General election

Debates

The first of two confirmed gubernatorial debates between Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott took place at the Edinburg Conference Center at Renaissance at 18:00 on Friday, September 19, co-hosted by KGBT-TV, The Monitor and KTLM-TV.[49] KGBT-TV posted the complete video online and can be viewed here.[50] The debate took place in Edinburg, Texas, and it gave both candidates an opportunity to appeal to the Hispanic community, a grouping seen by Reuters as an "increasingly important voting bloc in Texas."[51] The second debate took place on September 30 and was also posted online.

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Likely R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[54] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[55] Likely R November 3, 2014

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Greg
Abbott (R)		 Wendy
Davis (D)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 3,987 ± 3% 57% 37% 0% 6%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 10–19, 2014 866 ± 3.6% 54% 38% 8%[56] —
Survey Research Center September 22–October 16, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 47% 32% 2.1%[57] 17%
Crosswind Communications October 9–12, 2014 500 ± 4.33% 52.4% 31% 0.4% 16.2%
Rasmussen Reports October 1–2, 2014 840 ± 3.5% 51% 40% 3% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 4,177 ± 2% 54% 40% 0% 5%
Texas Lyceum September 11–25, 2014 666 ± 3.8% 49% 40% 4%[58] 8%
Benenson* September 2–4, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 46% 38% — 16%
WPA Opinion Research^ September 3, 2014 ? ± ? 53% 35% — 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 4,189 ± 2% 56% 38% 2% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 4–5, 2014 850 ± 3.5% 48% 40% 3% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 4,320 ± 3.7% 54% 37% 1% 9%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 30–June 8, 2014 1,200 ± 2.83% 44% 32% 7%[59] 17%
Texas Tech University April 14–17, 2014 454 ± 4.6% 54% 25% 6% 15%
Public Policy Polling April 10–13, 2014 559 ± 4.1% 51% 37% — 13%
Emerson College March 7–12, 2014 494 ± ? 49.3% 41.8% — 8.9%
Rasmussen Reports March 3–4, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 53% 41% 1% 4%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 7–17, 2014 1,200 ± 2.83% 47% 36% — 17%
Public Policy Polling November 1–4, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 50% 35% — 15%
47% 37% 9% 8%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 18–27, 2013 1,200 ± 3.3% 40% 34% — 25%
40% 35% 5%[60] 20%
Texas Lyceum September 6–20, 2013 798 ± 3.47% 29% 21% — 50%
Public Policy Polling June 28–July 1, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 40% — 12%
Public Policy Polling January 24–27, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 46% 34% — 20%
  • * Poll for the Wendy Davis campaign
  • ^ Poll for the Greg Abbott campaign

Results
2014 Texas gubernatorial election[61]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Greg Abbott 2,796,547 59.27% +4.30%
Democratic Wendy Davis 1,835,596 38.90% -3.40%
Libertarian Kathie Glass 66,543 1.41% -0.78%
Green Brandon Parmer 18,520 0.39% 0.00%
Independent Sarah M. Pavitt (write-in) 1,062 0.02% N/A
Total votes '4,718,268' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold

See also

References
  1. "Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)". www.sos.state.tx.us. Retrieved April 3, 2019.
  2. "2014 Statewide Offices List". Libertarian Party of Texas. Archived from the original on July 26, 2014. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
  3. "Green Party of Texas - Peace * Justice * Democracy * Ecology". Retrieved October 11, 2014.
  4. "Up and down the ballot, a night of dominance for GOP in Texas and in Harris County". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  5. "2014 Exit Polls - Politics - Fox News". Fox News. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  6. Hoppe, Christy (July 14, 2013). "Greg Abbott makes it official: He's running for governor of Texas". Retrieved July 15, 2013.
  7. Rauf, David (October 8, 2013). "Another Republican jumps into the race for Texas governor". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved October 9, 2013.
  8. Fernandez, Manny (November 23, 2012). "With Stickers, a Petition and Even a Middle Name, Secession Fever Hits Texas". The New York Times. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  9. "Miriam Martinez says she'll run for governor". The Monitor. Retrieved January 22, 2013.
  10. "Tom Pauken withdraws from GOP governor's race". The Dallas Morning News. December 5, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  11. Stutz, Terrence. "David Dewhurst '101 percent' sure he'll seek re-election as Texas lieutenant governor | Dallasnews.com - News for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News". Dallasnews.com. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  12. "Dewhurst affirms re-election campaign". KTRK-TV Houston. Associated Press. August 7, 2013. Archived from the original on September 11, 2013. Retrieved August 9, 2013.
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  18. "TOM PAUKEN FOR GOVERNOR OF TEXAS". Citizens for the Republic. July 19, 2013. Archived from the original on February 1, 2014. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  19. "I want to thank my good friend and fellow Reaganite Mark Levin". Facebook. September 21, 2013. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
  20. http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist169_state.htm 2014 Republican Party Primary Election
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  27. "Twitter / anniseparker: LOL. I appreciate the". Twitter.com. Retrieved July 18, 2013.
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  31. Gonzalez, John W. (October 7, 2013). "Mayor Castro endorses Wendy Davis for governor". San Antonio Express-News. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
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  33. "HRC Endorses Wendy Davis for Texas Governor". Human Rights Campaign. January 29, 2014.
  34. http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist170_state.htm 2014 Democratic Party Primary Election
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  46. Texas Secretary of State, 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary election returns
  47. Peggy Fikac of the San Antonio Express-News staff, "Turnout less than in 2010", Laredo Morning Times, March 10, 2014, pp. 1, 12A
  48. Ross Ramsey of The Texas Tribune, "Primary shows weak Davis", Laredo Morning Times, March 11, 2014, pp. 1, 14A
  49. Abbott, Davis to debate in the Rio Grande Valley, staff, Action 4 News, September 19, 2014
  50. Texas Governor Debate, KGBT-TV, September 19, 2014
  51. Richter, Marie. "Texas gubernatorial candidates court Hispanic vote in debate". Reuters. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
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  56. Kathie Glass (L) 6%, Brandon Parmer (G) 2%
  57. Kathie Glass (L) 0.7%, Brandon Parmer (G) 1.4%
  58. Kathie Glass (L) 2%, Brandon Parmer (G) 2%
  59. Kathie Glass (L) 3%, Brandon Parmer (G) 1%, Other 3%
  60. Kathie Glass (L)
  61. "Office of the Secretary of State Race Summary Report 2014 General Election". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
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