2014 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Kansas

November 4, 2014
 
Nominee Pat Roberts Greg Orman
Party Republican Independent
Popular vote 460,350 368,372
Percentage 53.1% 42.5%

County results
Roberts:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Orman:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Pat Roberts
Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts was re-elected to a fourth term against Independent Greg Orman and Libertarian nominee Randall Batson. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race.

Republican primary

Roberts gained negative press attention after criticism that he did not own a home in Kansas, with some comparing the situation to that of former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, who lost a 2012 Senate primary after a similar residency controversy.[1] Roberts owns a home in Alexandria, Virginia.[2] The primary was held August 5, 2014.[3]

Primary opponent Milton R. Wolf, a radiologist, was under investigation by a state medical ethics board for posting X-ray images of dead patients with macabre commentary to Facebook.[4]

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Pat Roberts
Milton Wolf

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
D.J.
Smith
Milton
Wolf
Alvin
Zahnter
Other Undecided
The Tarrance Group^ January 13–15, 2014 501 ± 4.5% 69% 15% 16%
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014 375 ± 5.1% 49% 23% 28%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2014 508 ± 4.4% 56% 23% 8% 12%
GEB International July 9, 2014 500 ± 4.28% 42% 30% 28%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 2014 691 ± 3.8% 50% 6% 30% 3% 12%
Daily Kos/Google Consumer Surveys August 4, 2014 1,002 ± 3.1% 53.4% 39.1% 7.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
Someone more
conservative
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014 375 ± 5.1% 43% 39% 18%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013 760 ± 3.6% 42% 34% 24%
  • ^ Internal poll for the Pat Roberts campaign

Results

Republican primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Pat Roberts (incumbent) 127,089 48.08%
Republican Milton Wolf 107,799 40.78%
Republican D.J. Smith 15,288 5.78%
Republican Alvin E. Zahnter 13,935 5.26%
Total votes 264,340 100.00%

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chad
Taylor
Patrick
Wiesner
Undecided
KSN News/SurveyUSA July 17–22, 2014 322 ± 5.6% 48% 17% 35%
KSN News/SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2014 252 ± 6.3% 41% 16% 43%

Results

Democratic primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chad Taylor 35,067 53.3%
Democratic Patrick Wiesner 30,752 46.7%
Total votes 65,819 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Declared

  • Randall Batson, nominee for the State House in 2012[39]

Independents

Declared

  • Greg Orman, businessman, who briefly ran in the Democratic Primary in 2008 before dropping out.[40][41]

General election

Campaign

On September 3, Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew from the race.[42] On September 4, Kris Kobach, the Republican Kansas Secretary of State, announced that Taylor would remain on the ballot because state law demands he declare himself "incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected" in order to be removed, which he did not do.[43] Taylor challenged the decision, and on September 18 the Kansas Supreme Court decided that his name would be taken off the ballot.[44]

On the same day, Kobach demanded the chairman of the Democratic Party name a replacement in eight days, saying he will consider litigation to force the party if they refuse.[45]

A registered Democrat with family ties to Republican Governor Sam Brownback's campaign also filed a petition with the Kansas Supreme Court on September 18 to force the Democratic Party to name a new candidate.[46] Kobach ordered ballots to be mailed to overseas voters on September 20 without a Democratic candidate, but included a disclaimer that another ballot will be sent if the Democratic Party names a replacement candidate.[47]

The state district court in Shawnee County threw out the petition, meaning no replacement for Taylor needed to be named.[48]

In the 2002 Senate election, Roberts also had no Democratic opponent.

Roberts defeated Orman in the general election, winning reelection to a fourth term in office.

If Orman had been elected, the U.S. Senate would have had three independent Senators for the first time in the chamber's history. This—and the question of whom Orman would choose to caucus with if elected—were very large questions in the electoral contest, and because the Kansas race was showing tight in the polls, a subject of considerable national political discourse as well.[49]

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand Debt
Greg Orman (I) $2,461,766 $3,298,186 $183,599 $1,124,982
Pat Roberts (R) $5,383,491 $5,534,415 $927,449 0

Debates

Endorsements

Greg Orman (I)
Individuals
Organizations
Pat Roberts (R)
National politicians
Kansas statewide politicians
State Senators
State representatives
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Tossup November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[65] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Chad
Taylor (D)
Greg
Orman (I)
Randall
Batson (L)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014 693 ± 3.7% 48% 32% 20%
Rasmussen Reports April 16–17, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 32% 5% 13%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2014 1068 ± 3.1% 43% 33% 7% 5% 12%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 2014 1,208 ± 2.9% 38% 33% 14% 4% 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,281 ± 6.1% 53% 37% 7% 4%
Rasmussen Reports August 6–7, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 40% 7% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014 903 ± 3.3% 32% 25% 23% 3% 17%
43% 39% 17%
33% 43% 24%
KSN News/SurveyUSA August 20–23, 2014 560 ± 4.2% 37% 32% 20% 4% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 839 ± 5% 47% 35% 2% 15%
KSN News/SurveyUSA September 4–7, 2014 555 ± 4.2% 36% 10% 37% 6% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 11–14, 2014 1,328 ± 2.7% 34% 6%[lower-alpha 1] 41% 4% 15%
36% 46% 17%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 604 ± 4% 40% 11%[lower-alpha 2] 38% 4% 8%
42% 48% 8%
Rasmussen Reports September 16–17, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 3%[lower-alpha 3] 45% 2% 10%
39% 9%[lower-alpha 4] 38% 2% 12%
Remington Research September 23, 2014 625 ± 3.91% 42% 50% 3% 5%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 41.2% 46.4% 0.8% 11.6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,013 ± 3% 40% 40% 2% 0% 17%
NBC News/Marist September 27 – October 1, 2014 511 LV ± 4.3% 38% 48% 5% 1% 9%
848 RV ± 3.4% 36% 46% 5% 1% 12%
Gravis Marketing September 30 – October 1, 2014 850 ± 3% 40% 47% 13%
SurveyUSA October 2–5, 2014 549 ± 4.3% 42% 47% 4% 7%
CNN/ORC October 2–6, 2014 687 ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 702 ± 3.5% 44% 39% 3% 4% 12%
Rasmussen Reports October 7–8, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 52% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 9–12, 2014 1,081 ± 3% 41% 44% 5% 10%
43% 46% 11%
Remington Research October 9–12, 2014 1,091 ± 2.97% 48% 46% 2% 4%
Monmouth University October 16–19, 2014 429 ± 4.7% 46% 46% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2014 960 ± 3% 44% 49% 3% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 20–21, 2014 1,124 ± 3% 45% 47% 8%
NBC News/Marist October 18–22, 2014 757 LV ± 3.6% 44% 45% 4% <1% 7%
1,055 RV ± 3% 42% 45% 4% 1% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,973 ± 4% 42% 38% 1% 0% 18%
Survey USA October 22–26, 2014 623 ± 4% 42% 44% 4% 10%
Fox News October 28–30, 2014 907 ± 3% 43% 44% 3% 1% 8%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,137 ± 4.8% 38% 37% 2% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 752 ± ? 47% 46% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 963 ± 3.2% 46% 47% 3% 4%
47% 49% 3%

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2014[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Pat Roberts (incumbent) 460,350 53.15% -6.91%
Independent Greg Orman 368,372 42.53% N/A
Libertarian Randall Batson 37,469 4.32% +2.20%
Total votes 866,191 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. Poll did not tell respondents that Taylor has withdrawn until after they answered[66]
  2. Poll did not tell respondents that Taylor has withdrawn
  3. Rasmussen does not specify whether respondents were given the option of voting for a withdrawn Taylor, or they specifically named him
  4. With Taylor still listed on the ballot

References

  1. Martin, Jonathan (February 7, 2014). "Lacking a House, a Senator Is Renewing His Ties in Kansas". New York Times. Retrieved February 21, 2014.
  2. Martin, Jonathan (September 4, 2014). "National G.O.P. Moves to Take Over Campaign of Kansas Senator". The New York Times. Retrieved September 4, 2014.
  3. "Milton Wolf demanding GOP foe Pat Roberts be kept off ballot". The Kansas City Star. May 2, 2014.
  4. "Kansas ethics board investigating Wolf's X-ray posts to Facebook | Cjonline.com Mobile". M.cjonline.com. July 22, 2014. Archived from the original on July 27, 2014. Retrieved August 8, 2014.
  5. "Roberts already planning 2014 bid". The Hutchinson News. October 31, 2009. Archived from the original on November 3, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
  6. Marso, Andy (June 2, 2014). "New challengers for Roberts, Jenkins seats file". The Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved June 25, 2014.
  7. Breitman, Kendall. "Obama cousin blasts the president". politico.com. Politico, LLC. Retrieved February 16, 2020.
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  9. "In case there's any doubt: Kris Kobach running for re-election in 2014". Midwest Democracy. February 1, 2013. Archived from the original on February 6, 2013. Retrieved July 29, 2013.
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  11. "Kansas candidate filing deadline passes". Star-Telegram. June 2, 2014. Archived from the original on June 7, 2014. Retrieved July 28, 2014.
  12. "Right targets Saxby Chambliss, Lindsey Graham". Politico. December 2, 2012. Archived from the original on October 8, 2014. Retrieved October 5, 2014.
  13. Kraske, Steve (May 29, 2014). "Todd Tiahrt will run for his old seat in Congress". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
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  16. Archived September 18, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  17. Erickson, Erick (December 18, 2013). "Dr. Milton Wolf for Senate". RedState.com. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
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  24. "Mark Levin endorses Senate Challenger Dr. Milton Wolf".
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  29. "National Association for Gun Rights Endorses Dr. Milton Wolf for U.S. Senate". Milton Wolf for US Senate. March 24, 2014. Archived from the original on April 18, 2014. Retrieved April 18, 2014.
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  35. "Northeast Kansas prosecutor running for US Senate". KAKE. February 27, 2014. Archived from the original on February 28, 2014. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  36. Hanna, John (November 1, 2013). "Northeast Kansas DA exploring run for US Senate". The State.
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  38. Kludt, Tom (April 18, 2014). "Sebelius Says She Won't Run For Senate". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved April 18, 2014.
  39. Sloan, Nick (June 25, 2014). "POLL: Davis leads Brownback 47-41; Republicans up in other races". Kansas City Kansan. Retrieved July 18, 2014.
  40. http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/greg-orman-for-us-senate-launches-campaign-website-810726.htm
  41. Lowry, Bryan (September 3, 2014). "Democrat Chad Taylor drops out of U.S. Senate race". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
  42. Lowry, Bryan (September 4, 2014), "Kobach: Democrat Chad Taylor's name will remain on ballot for U.S. Senate", The Wichita Eagle, retrieved September 4, 2014
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  44. "Supreme Court: Democrat Chad Taylor's name can be taken off ballot for U.S. Senate". The Wichita Eagle. September 18, 2014. Retrieved September 18, 2014.
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  50. "Breaking News: The Centrist Project Voice Endorses a Wide Portfolio of Moderate Candidates". The Centrist Project. July 9, 2014. Retrieved August 27, 2014.
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  63. "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
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  65. Blumenthal, Mark; Edwards-Levy, Ariel; Lienesch, Rachel (September 16, 2014). "Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate". The Huffington Post. Retrieved September 16, 2014.
  66. "2014 Official Kansas General Election Results" (PDF). Retrieved December 29, 2014.
Official campaign websites
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