2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
November 6, 2012
Turnout72.5% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,547,104 1,380,126
Percentage 51.4% 45.9%
County results
Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Thompson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

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Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the first time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire so as to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, so Baldwin was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Declared

Declined

Results
Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 185,265 99.77
Democratic Write ins 424 0.23
Total votes 185,689 100

Republican primary
Results of the 2012 Wisconsin Republican Senatorial Primary with winner indicated by county.

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[15] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[16] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight and although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.[17]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jeff
Fitzgerald		 Eric
Hovde		 Mark
Neumann		 Tommy
Thompson		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 15% 27% 24% 25% 9%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 519 ± 4.4% 13% 20% 18% 28% 7%
We Ask America July 31, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 12% 23% 17% 23% 25%
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 13% 28% 25% 25% 9%
— 33% 27% 30% 10%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 432 ± 4.8% 6% 23% 10% 35% 25%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 9% 31% 15% 29% 16%
OnMessage Inc.+ June 26–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 7% 29% 16% 34% 14%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 344 ± 5.4% 10% 14% 16% 34% 25%
Public Policy Polling March 31–April 1, 2012 609 ± 4.0% 18% — 25% 38% 19%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 22% — 22% 39% 17%
32% — 42% — 26%
37% — — 46% 17%
— — 36% 46% 18%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 21% — 29% 35% 11%
— — 39% 43% 17%
28% — 44% — 28%
35% — — 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 362 ± 5.2% — — 39% 47% 13%
Magellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 638 ± 3.9% 15% — 26% 41% 18%
— — 36% 44% 20%
  • + Commissioned by Eric Hovde
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tommy
Thompson		 Someone more
conservative		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 29% 58% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 34% 50% 17%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 37% 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 35% 51% 14%

Endorsements
Jeff Fitzgerald
Eric Hovde
Mark Neumann
Tommy Thompson

Politicians

Celebrities and political commentators[51]

Cabinet officials[51]

  • Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
  • Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
  • Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators[51]

Political organization officials[51]

  • David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association and former chairman of the American Conservative Union
  • Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
  • Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
  • Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials[51]

  • Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
  • Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations[51]

  • Wisconsin Right to Life
  • Dairy Business Association
  • Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
  • Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
  • Milwaukee Police Association
  • Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
  • Wisconsin Grocers Association
  • Wisconsin Restaurant Association
  • Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin Health Care Association
  • Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
  • GOProud[55]

Results
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Thompson 197,928 34.0
Republican Eric Hovde 179,557 30.8
Republican Mark Neumann 132,786 22.8
Republican Jeff Fitzgerald 71,871 12.3
Republican Write ins 244 0.04
Total votes 582,630 100

General election
Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tammy Baldwin (D) $14,643,869 $15,204,940 $143,852 $0
Tommy Thompson (R) $9,585,823 $9,582,888 $2,934 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[58]

Top contributors
Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825
MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500
University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250
J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500
League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750
Democracy Engine $81,330 American Foods Group $25,000
Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000
Voices for Progress $25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750
Marshfield Clinic $21,800 BGR Group $20,500
Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[59]

Top industries
Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
Women's Issues $915,482 Retired $858,276
Retired $791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms $597,674 Financial Institutions $243,636
Democratic/Liberal $555,792 Lawyers/Law Firms $228,379
Leadership PACs $309,430 Real Estate $227,687
Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $204,302
Human Rights Organisations $215,539 Insurance Industry $202,654
Health Professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & Distributing $169,104
Pro-Israel $172,380 Health Professionals $150,149
Business Services $163,238 Lobbyists $138,700
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[60]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[63] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[64] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Tommy
Thompson (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 45% — 11%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 42% 50% — 8%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 46% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 42% 49% 4% 6%
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 42% 48% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 46% 45% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 50% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 48% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 45% 47% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 38% 50% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 42% 47% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 52% 6% 6%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 41% 49% — 10%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 45% 45% — 11%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 41% 45% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 41% 5% 6%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 43% 48% — 5%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 47% 47% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 54% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 1,308 ±2.7% 44% 49% — 7%
Marquette University August 16–19, 2012 576 ±4.2% 41% 50% — 9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,190 ±3.0% 44% 50% 1% 4%
YouGov September 4–11, 2012 772 ±n/a 42% 48% — 10%
Public Policy Polling September 12–13, 2012 959 ±n/a 48% 45% — 6%
Marquette University September 13–16, 2012 705 ±3.8% 50% 41% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ±2.5% 47% 47% — 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 16–18, 2012 968 ±3.2% 48% 46% — 5%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2012 842 ±3.4% 49% 45% — 6%
We Ask America September 20–23, 2012 1,238 ±2.8% 52% 40% — 8%
Marquette University September 27–30, 2012 894 ±3.3% 48% 44% — 6%
Public Policy Polling October 4–6, 2012 979 ±3.1% 49% 46% — 6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 4–9, 2012 1,327 ±2.7% 48% 46% — 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 47% 1% 2%
YouGov October 4–11, 2012 639 ±4.9% 48% 43% — 9%
Marquette University October 11–14, 2012 870 ±3.3% 45% 46% — 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 15–17, 2012 1,013 ±3.1% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2012 625 ±4% 47% 45% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 48% 3% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 502 ±4.5% 45% 42% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 48% 2% 4%
Marquette University October 25–28, 2012 1,243 ±2.8% 47% 43% — 10%
St. Norbert College October 25–29, 2012 402 ±5% 43% 46% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 48% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 31, 2012 1,065 ±3.0% 48% 47% 4% 1%
WeAskAmerica October 31 – November 1, 2012 1,210 ±3% 49% 46% — 5%
YouGov October 31 – November 3, 2012 1,225 ±3.1% 48% 47% — 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 1–3, 2012 482 ±4.5% 50% 48% 2% —
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 1,256 ±2.8% 51% 48% — 2%

Results
United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012[65]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 1,547,104 51.41% -15.90%
Republican Tommy Thompson 1,380,126 45.86% +16.38%
Independent Joseph Kexel 62,240 2.07% N/A
Independent Nimrod Allen, III 16,455 0.55% N/A
Write-in 3,486 0.11% +0.05%
Total votes 3,009,411 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."[66]

See also

References
  1. Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. Glauber, Bill (November 3, 2010). "Kohl says he'll work with Johnson". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  3. Hall, Dee (November 4, 2010). "Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says". Chippewa Herald. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  4. http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/129281483.html
  5. Burns, Alexander (May 17, 2011). "Barrett closes door on Senate speculation". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  6. Sullivan, Sean (January 18, 2012). "Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race". National Journal. Archived from the original on January 22, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  7. Thompson, Krissah (August 19, 2011). "Russ Feingold not running in 2012". The Washington Post.
  8. "Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement". Wispolitics.com. January 5, 2012. Archived from the original on May 8, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  9. Catanese, David (September 15, 2011). "Rep. Kind says no to Senate run". Politico. Retrieved September 15, 2011.
  10. http://www.rollcall.com/news/Herb-Kohl-Retiring-Senate-Wisconsin-2012-205591-1.html
  11. http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Herb_Kohl_wont_seek_reelection.html?showall
  12. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 21, 2011.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. "Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year". WisPolitics.com. November 18, 2011. Archived from the original on December 11, 2011. Retrieved November 21, 2011.
  14. "Canvass Results for 2012 PARTISAN PRIMARY - 8/14/2012" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  15. Gilbert, Craig (April 25, 2009). "Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision". JSOnline. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
  16. Catanese, David (May 16, 2011). "Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  17. Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Aug 14, 2012
  18. Marley, Patrick (October 11, 2011). "Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved October 11, 2011.
  19. Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate - Leader-Telegram: Front Page
  20. Republican Neumann announces Senate run Archived September 28, 2011, at the Wayback Machine WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Accessed August 29, 2011
  21. Roll Call. August 29, 2011. Accessed August 29, 2011
  22. "Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official". September 19, 2011. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  23. "State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race | News - Channel3000.com". Archived from the original on February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 15, 2012.
  24. Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race | Wisconsin | onPolitix
  25. "Green backs Thompson for Senate". WLUK-TV. Associated Press. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on January 23, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  26. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/130773358.html
  27. http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ryan-Out-Thompson-In-Wisconsin-Senate-205679-1.html?pos=hln
  28. http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127969353.html?wpisrc=nl_fix
  29. Fitzgerald gets key endorsements - Sun Prairie Star - Sun Prairie, WI
  30. Fitzgerald announces Waukesha endorsements - Sun Prairie Star - Sun Prairie, WI
  31. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/237743-freedomworks-endorses-hovde-in-wisconsin The Hill
  32. "CFG PAC endorses Kevin Cramer in North Dakota". Archived from the original on October 6, 2011. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
  33. FRC Action PAC
  34. Blumenthal, Paul (November 11, 2011). "HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Perry Spends Big". Huffington Post.
  35. Sen. Coburn endorses Neumann in Wis. Senate race - The Hill's Ballot Box
  36. Jim DeMint Backs Wisconsin Senate Hopeful Over Tommy Thompson : Roll Call Politics
  37. Utah senator endorses Neumann - JSOnline
  38. http://wispolitics.com/1006/120126_Neumann_100B.pdf%5B%5D
  39. "Mark Neumann Wins Two Key Endorsements For Senate Race". Archived from the original on March 17, 2016. Retrieved February 27, 2012.
  40. "Primary Targets | RedState". Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  41. Neumann endorsed by Sen. Toomey - JSOnline
  42. http://wrtl.org/mec/
  43. http://impeachobamatoday.blogspot.com/2012/08/mark-levin-endorses-mark-neumann-for-us.html
  44. http://waukesha.patch.com/articles/herman-cain-stumps-for-tommy-thompson-at-waukesha-rally
  45. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  46. "Endorsements". Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  47. Rudy Giuliani, Milwaukee Police Association backing Tommy Thompson - JSOnline
  48. Tommy Thompson Picks Up Senate Endorsements : Roll Call Politics
  49. Walker, Don (December 15, 2011). "Huckabee endorses Thompson, slams Club for Growth". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on January 11, 2012. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  50. Seven former governors endorse Thompson - JSOnline
  51. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 25, 2012. Retrieved July 25, 2012.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  52. 'The Nuge' endorses Tommy Thompson - JSOnline
  53. The Coveted Dick Morris Endorsement
  55. GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements
  56. "Kexel Announces Run for US Senate" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. April 20, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  57. "NIMROD ALLEN III INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE FOR U.S. SENATE" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. July 20, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 3, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  58. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Wisconsin". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 19, 2012.
  59. Center for Responsive Politics (March 25, 2013). "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate". opensecrets.org.
  60. Center for Responsive Politics (March 25, 2013). "Top Industries 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate". opensecrets.org.
  61. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  62. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  63. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  64. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  65. https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Amended%20Percentage%20Results-11.6.12%20President.pdf
  66. Alex Roarty (September 26, 2013). "Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin?". National Journal. Retrieved September 30, 2013.
Official candidate sites (Archived)
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