2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic Governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former Senator and Governor George Allen.[2][3] Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012.[4] Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

November 6, 2012
Turnout	66.4% (voting eligible)[1]
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,010,067 1,785,542 Percentage 52.8% 46.9%
County and independent city results Kaine:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Allen:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election Jim Webb Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Tim Kaine Democratic

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary.[5]

Declared

• George Allen, former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Virginia[6]
• E. W. Jackson, minister and conservative activist[7]
• Bob Marshall, State Delegate[8]
• Jamie Radtke, conservative activist[9]

Withdrawn

• Tim Donner, founder of Horizons Television and LibertyNation.com[10]
• David McCormick, attorney[11]

Declined

• Liz Cheney, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs[12]
• Ken Cuccinelli, Virginia Attorney General[13][14]
• Tom Davis, former U.S. Representative[15]
• Corey Stewart, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman[16]

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads.[17]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	George Allen	Other candidates	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	400	±4.9%	52%	25%	23%
Public Policy Polling	July 21–24, 2011	400	±4.9%	58%	23%	19%
Public Policy Polling	December 11–13, 2011	350	±5.2%	53%	25%	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	George Allen	E. W. Jackson	Bob Marshall	David McCormick	Jamie Radtke	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 21–24, 2011	400	±4.9%	68%	2%	2%	0%	6%	22%
Public Policy Polling	December 11–13, 2011	350	±5.2%	67%	2%	3%	2%	5%	21%
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	400	±4.9%	66%	2%	8%	—	3%	20%
Washington Post	April 28 – May 2, 2012	1,101	±3.5%	62%	3%	12%	—	5%	18%

Endorsements

George Allen

• Bill Bolling, Lt. Governor of Virginia and President of the Virginia State Senate[18]
• Ron Johnson, U.S. Senator from Wisconsin[19]
• Bob McDonnell, governor of Virginia.[20]
• Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[21]
• Corey Stewart, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman[22]

Jamie Radtke

• Bob Arment, Louisa County Republican Party Chairman
• Steve Arrington, Bedford County Supervisor
• James Fisher, Fauquier County Commonwealth’s Attorney
• Jeff Frederick, former Virginia House of Delegates member
• Joe Glover, Family Policy Network president
• Jack Reid, former Virginia House of Delegates member
• Eva Scott, Former Virginia state senator
• John Sharp, Bedford County Supervisor
• Richard Viguerie, conservative activist

Results

Republican primary results[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	George Allen	167,607	65.5
	Republican	Jamie Radtke	59,005	23.0
	Republican	Bob Marshall	17,302	6.8
	Republican	E. W. Jackson	12,083	4.7
Total votes			255,997	100

General election

Candidates

• George Allen (Republican), former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Virginia[6]
• Tim Kaine (Democrat), former Governor of Virginia and former Democratic National Committee chairman[24][25]

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest.[26]

External links

• Complete video of debate, September 20, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 8, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher,[27] Gerry Connolly,[28] Glenn Nye,[29] Tom Perriello[30] and Bobby Scott.[31] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant[32] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute,[32] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Tim Kaine (D)	$10,390,929	$7,666,452	$2,724,476	$0
George Allen (R)	$8,015,948	$4,678,004	$3,337,942	$0
Kevin Chisholm (I)	$24,165	$24,162	$0	$0
Terrence Modglin (I)	$5,655	$5,389	$266	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[33][34][35][36]

Top contributors

[37]

Tim Kaine	Contribution	George Allen	Contribution	Kevin Chisholm	Contribution
League of Conservation Voters	$76,568	McGuireWoods LLP	$76,950	Valu Net	$2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld	$51,650	Altria Group	$64,749	Geolq Inc	$1,500
University of Virginia	$42,075	Alpha Natural Resources	$38,000
McGuireWoods LLP	$38,550	Elliott Management Corporation	$35,913
Covington & Burling	$36,700	Koch Industries	$35,000
DLA Piper	$31,750	Lorillard Tobacco Company	$34,715
Bain Capital	$30,000	Alliance Resource Partners	$33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom	$28,250	Dominion Resources	$31,800
Patton Boggs LLP	$26,750	Norfolk Southern	$31,550
Norfolk Southern	$26,000	Boeing	$23,750

Top industries

[38]

Tim Kaine	Contribution	George Allen	Contribution	Kevin Chisholm	Contribution	Terrence Modglin	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$1,297,792	Retired	$709,693	Misc Energy	$250	Lawyers/Law Firms	$200
Retired	$762,722	Real Estate	$384,038
Financial Institutions	$477,700	Lawyers/Law Firms	$348,459
Business Services	$373,900	Financial Institutions	$299,115
Real Estate	$372,829	Leadership PACs	$277,000
Lobbyists	$287,545	Lobbyists	$275,600
Education	$282,475	Mining	$197,206
Misc Finance	$218,600	Oil & Gas	$196,400
Leadership PACs	$201,500	Insurance	$159,065
Entertainment industry	$156,279	Misc Finance	$157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[39]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[40]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[42]	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[43]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 10–13, 2010	551	±4.2%	50%	44%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	47%	47%	—	6%
Washington Post	April 28 – May 4, 2011	1,040	±3.5%	46%	46%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	May 5–8, 2011	547	±4.2%	46%	44%	—	10%
Quinnipiac	June 21–27, 2011	1,434	±2.6%	43%	42%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling	July 21–24, 2011	500	±4.4%	46%	43%	—	11%
Quinnipiac	September 7–12, 2011	1,368	±4.0%	44%	45%	1%	9%
Rasmussen Reports	September 28, 2011	500	±4.5%	46%	45%	3%	7%
CNU/Times-Dispatch	October 3–8, 2011	1,027	±3.1%	44%	42%	3%	12%
Quinnipiac	October 3–9, 2011	1,459	±2.6%	45%	44%	1%	9%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2011	600	±4.0%	47%	42%	—	11%
Quinnipiac	December 13–19, 2011	1,135	±2.9%	42%	44%	1%	12%
Mason-Dixon	January 16–18, 2012	625	±3.9%	46%	46%	—	8%
Quinnipiac	February 1–6, 2012	1,544	±2.5%	45%	44%	1%	9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch	February 4–13, 2012	1,018	±3.1%	40%	42%	2%	16%
Rasmussen Reports	February 21, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	46%	3%	5%
Roanoke College	February 13–26, 2012	607	±4.0%	37%	45%	—	19%
NBC News/Marist	February 29 – March 2, 2012	2,518	±2%	48%	39%	—	14%
Quinnipiac	March 13–18, 2012	1,034	±3.1%	47%	44%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports	March 20, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	46%	3%	7%
Roanoke College	March 26 – April 5, 2012	537	±4.2%	39%	46%	—	15%
Rasmussen Reports	April 23, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	46%	4%	5%
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	680	±3.8%	46%	45%	—	9%
Washington Post	April 28 – May 2, 2012	964	±4%	46%	46%	—	8%
Marist	May 17–20, 2012	1,076	±3%	49%	43%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	June 3, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	44%	3%	6%
Quinnipiac	May 30 – June 4, 2012	1,282	±2.7%	44%	43%	2%	10%
We Ask America	June 25, 2012	1,106	±2.95%	35%	44%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	647	±3.9%	46%	44%	—	11%
Quinnipiac	July 10–16, 2012	1,673	±2.4%	44%	46%	1%	10%
Rasmussen Reports	July 16–17, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	45%	5%	5%
Quinnipiac	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,412	±2.6%	48%	46%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports	August 7, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	46%	2%	6%
Public Policy Polling	August 16–19, 2012	855	±3.4%	46%	46%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	August 23, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	45%	2%	8%
Gravis Marketing	September 8–9, 2012	2,238	±2.2%	43%	48%	—	10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	September 9–11, 2012	996	±3.1%	46%	46%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 13, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	45%	2%	6%
Washington Post	September 12–16, 2012	847	±4%	51%	43%	3%	4%
Public Policy Polling	September 13–16, 2012	1,021	±3.1%	47%	46%	—	7%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	September 11–17, 2012	1,485	±2.5%	51%	44%	—	5%
FOX NEWS Poll	September 16–18, 2012	1,006	±3%	47%	43%	1%	9%
Gravis Marketing	September 17, 2012	2,238	±2.2%	43%	48%	—	9%
Huffpost Politics	September 20, 2012	1,000	±3%	46%	45%	—	9%
Suffolk University	September 24–26, 2012	600	±4%	44%	44%	—	12%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	September 30 – October 1, 2012	969	±3.1%	49%	44%	1%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	October 4, 2012	500	±4.5%	52%	45%	—	3%
Public Policy Polling	October 4–7, 2012	725	±3.6%	51%	44%	—	5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	October 4–9, 2012	1,288	±2.7%	51%	44%	—	5%
We Ask America	October 7–9, 2012	1,296	±2.9%	41%	46%	—	13%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	October 7–9, 2012	981	±3.1%	47%	46%	—	7%
Rasmussen Reports	October 11, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	47%	1%	4%
Old Dominion University	September 19 – October 17, 2012	465	±3.4%	50%	43%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports	October 18, 2012	500	±4.0%	49%	48%	3%	—
Rasmussen Reports	October 24, 2012	750	±4.0%	49%	48%	3%	—
Washington Post	October 22–26, 2012	1,228	±3.5%	51%	44%	—	5%
Roanoke College	October 23–26, 2012	638	±4.0%	42%	47%	—	10%
Gravis Marketing	October 26, 2012	645	±3.9%	46%	48%	—	5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	October 23–28, 2012	1,074	±3%	50%	46%	—	4%
Zogby/Newsmax	October 26–28, 2012	1,076	±3%	47%	45%	—	8%
Zogby/Newsmax	October 27–29, 2012	829	±3.5%	45%	46%	—	9%
Reuters/Ipsos	October 29–31, 2012	703	±4.2%	47%	45%	1%	7%
		855	±3.8%	50%	38%	1%	11%
WeAskAmerica	October 30 – November 1, 2012	1,069	±3%	50%	50%	—	—
NBC/WSJ/Marist	November 1–2, 2012	1,165	±2.9%	49%	46%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling	November 3–4, 2012	975	±3.1%	52%	46%	—	2%
Rasmussen Reports	November 4, 2012	750	±4%	49%	47%	1%	4%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012[44]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tim Kaine	2,010,067	52.83%	+3.24%
	Republican	George Allen	1,785,542	46.92%	-2.28%
	Write-in		9,410	0.25%	+0.15%
Total votes			3,805,019	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

See also

• Hank the Cat
• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia

References

1. Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
2. "Kaine hits the road to tout economic plan", The Washington Post.
3. Trygstad, Kyle (February 9, 2011). "Webb Won't Seek Re-Election". Roll Call. Retrieved February 9, 2011.
4. "Va. Dems will choose U.S. Senate nominee in June primary". The Pilot Online. September 20, 2011.
5. Heiderman, Rosalind (November 20, 2010). "UPDATED: Virginia GOP chooses primary over convention for 2012 senate race". The Washington Post.
6. Catanese, David (January 24, 2011). "Allen e-mails supporters; Webb reacts". Politico. Retrieved January 24, 2011.
7. Sherfinski, David (May 8, 2011) http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia/2011/05/dark-horse-candidates-expand-gop-field-va-senate-race%5B%5D Retrieved May 9, 2011
8. GOP State Delegate Bob Marshall to Enter Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics
9. King, Neil (December 27, 2010). "Tea Party Organizer Jumps Into Va. Senate Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 27, 2010.
10. Cain, Andrew (December 28, 2011). "Donner drops out of Virginia's U.S. Senate race". WSLS. Retrieved December 28, 2011.
11. Kumar, Anita (March 29, 2012). "McCormick fails to make GOP Senate primary ballot; four others submit signatures". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
12. Brown, Carrie (October 2, 2011). "Liz Cheney won't run for office in 2012". Politico. Retrieved October 2, 2011.
13. Martella, Ashley; Meyers, Jim (December 14, 2010). "Cuccinelli: Defeating Obamacare Critical to 'Constitution and Liberty'". Newsmax Media. Retrieved December 14, 2010.
14. Kumar, Anita (August 16, 2011). "Cuccinelli says he may challenge Warner for U.S. Senate in 2014". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
15. Goodin, Emily (December 13, 2010). "Former Rep. Davis said it's unlikely he'll run for Virginia Senate in 2012". The Hill. Retrieved December 14, 2010.
16. Corey Stewart Endorses George Allen in Virginia : Roll Call Politics
17. Pershing, Ben (November 10, 2011). "Virginia Republicans announce plans for three 2012 Senate primary debates". The Washington Post.
18. Bolling Backs Allen In U.S. Senate Race | Virginia Right!
19. Pershing, Ben (April 20, 2012). "George Allen gets endorsement from tea party-backed Sen. Ron Johnson". Washington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2012.
20. Catalina Camia (November 11, 2011). "Va. Gov. McDonnell endorses George Allen for Senate". USA Today. Retrieved December 6, 2011.
21. "Allen wins Rubio's backing in bid for U.S. Senate". Washington Times. June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2012.
22. "George Allen Getting Corey Stewart's Endorsement". NBC Washington. November 1, 2011. Retrieved April 9, 2012.
23. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 13, 2012.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
24. Cillizza, Chris (April 5, 2011) "Tim Kaine announces for Senate in Virginia", Washington Post. Retrieved April 5, 2011.
25. O'Brien, Michael (April 5, 2011) "Tim Kaine launches Virginia Senate bid", The Hill. Retrieved April 5, 2011
26. "Va. Senate debate: Kaine open to minimum tax, Allen sidesteps Romney". CNN. September 20, 2012.
27. Gruenwald, Juliana (March 2, 2011). "Boucher Appears Unlikely To Seek Senate Seat". National Journal. Archived from the original on January 25, 2012. Retrieved February 16, 2012.
28. D'Aprile, Shane (March 4, 2011). "Rep. Connolly rules out 2012 Senate run; hopes for Kaine". The Hill. Retrieved March 4, 2011.
29. Catanese, David; Martin, Jonathan (February 11, 2011). "Nye has "no interest," Kaine wary of run". Politico. Retrieved February 11, 2011.
30. Pershing, Ben (February 16, 2011). "Ex-rep. Perriello might run for U.S. Senate in Va. if Kaine doesn't". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
31. Wilson, Todd Allen (September 5, 2011). "Rep. Scott says he won't run for Senate". Newport News Daily Press. Retrieved September 5, 2011.
32. Hester, Wesley P. (March 25, 2012). "Allen to face host of GOP challengers; Kaine none". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
33. Tim Kaine Campaign Finances
34. George Allen Campaign Finances
35. Kevin Chisholm Campaign Finances
36. Terrence Modglin Campaign Finances
37. [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=vas1 Center for Responsive Politics
38. Donors by industry (opensecrets.org)
39. Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
40. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
41. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
42. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
43. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
44. http://historical.elections.virginia.gov/elections/search/year_from:2012/year_to:2012/office_id:6/stage:General

External links

• Virginia State Board of Elections
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites

• George Allen for U.S. Senate
• Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate