2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. A primary election was held on September 14. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Judd Gregg decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte won the open seat by over 23 points. As of 2021, this is the last time a Republican was elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire. This was the first open seat election since 1992.
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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Background
Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010.[1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.
In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce.[2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010.[2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.[3]
On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama.[4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.[5][6]
On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.[7]
Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Kelly Ayotte, former New Hampshire Attorney General[8]
- Tom Alciere, state representative
- Gerard Beloin
- Jim Bender, businessman
- Bill Binnie, businessman[9]
- Dennis Lamare
- Ovide Lamontagne, 1992 congressional candidate and 1996 gubernatorial nominee; chairman of 2004 platform committee[10]
Endorsements
Kelly Ayotte
- U.S. Senator Judd Gregg[11]
- Former Governor of Alaska and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin[12][13]
- U.S. Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky[14]
- U.S. Senator and 2008 Republican nominee for President John McCain of Arizona[15]
- Former U.S. Congressman Bill Zeliff of New Hampshire[16]
- Former U.S. Senator Warren Rudman[17]
- Former U.S. Marshal for New Hampshire Steve Monier[18]
- State Senator John Barnes, Jr.
- State Senator Robert Letourneau
- State Senator Sheila Roberge
- State Senator Bob Odell
- State Senator John Gallus
- State Senator Sharon Carson[19]
- Former Major League Baseball shortstop and third baseman for the Boston Red Sox Rico Petrocelli[20]
Ovide Lamontagne
- United States Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina[21]
- New Hampshire Union Leader[22]
- Former Vice President Dan Quayle[23]
- Former Republican presidential candidate Steve Forbes[24]
- Former U.S. Senator Gordon Humphrey[25]
- Former State Senator and 2008 gubernatorial nominee Joe Kenney[26]
- Conservative national talk show host Laura Ingraham[27]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Kelly Ayotte | Jim Bender | Bill Binnie | Ovide Lamontagne | Undecided/other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | January 13–14, 2010 | 43% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 37% |
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 36% | –– | 4% | 27% | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 21, 2010 | 43% | 11% | 19% | 5% | 21% |
| Magellan Strategies | May 28, 2010 | 38% | 4% | 29% | 9% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 47% | 6% | 14% | 8% | 20% |
| Magellan Strategies | September 1, 2010 | 34% | 13% | 17% | 21% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–12, 2010 | 37% | 12% | 13% | 30% | 5% |
| Magellan Strategies | September 12, 2010 | 35% | 10% | 14% | 31% | 10% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 53,056 | 38.21% | |
| Republican | Ovide Lamontagne | 51,397 | 37.01% | |
| Republican | Bill Binnie | 19,508 | 14.05% | |
| Republican | Jim Bender | 12,611 | 9.08% | |
| Republican | Dennis Lamare | 1,388 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Tom Alciere | 499 | 0.36% | |
| Republican | Gerard Beloin | 402 | 0.29% | |
| Total votes | 138,861 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Kelly Ayotte (R), former state Attorney General
- Ken Blevens (L), (campaign site, PVS)
- Chris Booth (I), (campaign site, PVS)
- Paul Hodes (D), U.S. Representative since 2007
Campaign
Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act.[29][30][31] Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad was questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million.[32]
Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.[33]
Debates
- October 11 in Henniker at New England College[34]
- October 28 in Manchester[35]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Leans R[36] | October 28, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | Safe R[37] | October 22, 2010 |
| Swing State Project | Leans R | |
| RealClearPolitics | Leans R[38] | October 28, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R[39] | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Leans R[40] | October 28, 2010 |
| The New York Times | R[39] | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelly Ayotte (R) | Paul Hodes (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granite State Poll | June 24 – July 1, 2009 | 558 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 35% | 2% | 24% |
| Research 2000 | July 13 – 15, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 2% | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 14, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 38% | 5% | 12% |
| American Research Group | September 30, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 34% | –– | 25% |
| Granite State Poll | October 2, 2009 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 33% | 2% | 25% |
| American Research Group | December 29, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 36% | –– | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8% |
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 33% | 1% | 25% |
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | –– | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 37% | 4% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 35% | 4% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1,474 | ± 2.6% | 47% | 40% | –– | 13% |
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 32% | –– | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 37% | 7% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 45% | 42% | –– | 13% |
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 37% | 1% | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 38% | 4% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–12, 2010 | 1,959 | ± 2.2% | 47% | 43% | –– | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 15, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 44% | 1% | 4% |
| American Research Group | September 22–26, 2010 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 32% | 2% | 20% |
| American Research Group | October 3–5, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 10, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 3% | 2% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 7–12, 2010 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 35% | 1% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 27, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 2% | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 27–29, 2010 | 1,308 | ± 2.7% | 56% | 41% | –– | 3% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 27–30, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 54% | 36% | 2% | 8% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 31, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 55% | 32% | 2% | 2% |
| The Concord | October 31, 2010 | 885 | ± 3.3% | 56% | 32% | 2% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll Source | Dates Administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Paul Hodes (D) |
Jim Bender (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | -- | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 42% | -- | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 10% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 13% |
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 34% | -- | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 39% | -- | 18% |
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 27% | 2% | 35% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Paul Hodes (D) |
Bill Binnie (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 7% |
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 41% | -- | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 41% | 46% | -- | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 49% | 7% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 6% | 8% |
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 38% | -- | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 45% | -- | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 4% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 46% | 4% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 13% |
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 35% | -- | 15% |
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 30% | 2% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 37% | 5% | 15% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Paul Hodes (D) |
Ovide Lamontagne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR Granite State Poll | July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 36% | 1% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 38% | -- | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% |
| Granite State Poll | April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 37% | -- | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 37% | -- | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 38% | 4% | 13% |
| Research 2000 | February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 36% | -- | 13% |
| Granite State Poll | January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 29% | 2% | 30% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 38% | 6% | 11% |
| American Research Group | December 29, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 31% | 37% | -- | 32% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte (R) | $4,403,599 | $3,397,934 | $1,005,664 | $26,944 |
| Paul Hodes (D) | $4,596,642 | $4,346,539 | $248,003 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[41] | ||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kelly Ayotte | 272,703 | 60.16% | -6.08% | |
| Democratic | Paul Hodes | 166,538 | 36.74% | +2.99% | |
| Independent | Chris Booth | 9,285 | 2.05% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Ken Blevens | 4,754 | 1.05% | +1.03% | |
| Majority | 106,165 | 23.42% | |||
| Total votes | 453,280 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
References
- "Gregg confirms 2010 bid for re-election: Calls Dem sweep 'repudiation' of Bush". FOS News. November 5, 2008. Retrieved November 6, 2008.
- "GOP's Gregg accepts commerce secretary post". CNN.com. February 3, 2009. Archived from the original on February 6, 2009.
- Rhee, Foon (February 3, 2009). "Newman named to replace Gregg". Boston Globe.
- "BREAKING: Gregg withdraws". CNN.com. February 12, 2009.
- "Judd Gregg withdraws as nominee for Commerce secretary, says he won't run in 2010". New Hampshire Union Leader. February 13, 2009.
- Martin Kady II & David Rogers (February 12, 2009). "'I couldn't be Judd Gregg'". Politico.
- J. Taylor Rushing (April 1, 2009). "Gregg says he definitely won't run again". The Hill.
- "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- Michael McCord (November 4, 2009). "Rye's Binnie makes official his run for U.S. Senate". Sea Coast Online. Retrieved November 21, 2009.
- Kraushaar, Josh (November 8, 2009). "Lamontagne announces Senate campaign - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Radio Ad: Judd Gregg Supports Kelly Ayotte in New Radio Spot". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- Palin endorses Ayotte, hits rivals in Senate race, Kevin Landrigan, The Nashua Telegraph, July 20, 2010
- "Kelly Ayotte Statement on Endorsement from Gov. Sarah Palin". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Kelly Ayotte". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "John McCain Endorses Republican Senate Candidate Kelly Ayotte In Nashua, New Hampshire". YouTube. March 13, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Candidate - William H. Zeliff, Jr". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Senator Warren Rudman Announces Support for Kelly Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Former New Hampshire U.S. Marshal Joins Team Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Niet compatibele browser". Facebook. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Rico Petrocelli Endorses Ayotte". RedHampshire.com. July 6, 2010. Archived from the original on August 5, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- "Senator Jim DeMint Endorses Ovide for Senate". Ovide for Senate. September 1, 2010. Retrieved September 16, 2010.
- McQuaid, Joseph W. (August 29, 2010). "Joseph W. McQuaid: Lamontagne for U.S. Senate". New Hampshire Union Leader. UnionLeader.com. Retrieved September 16, 2010.
- "Candidate - Dan Quayle". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Ovide Lamontagne for U.S. Senate » Blog Archive". Ovide2010.com. June 10, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- Tuck, Amos (March 18, 2010). "Gordon Humphrey endorses Ovide Lamontagne. John Babiarz endorses Jim Bender". RedHampshire.com. Archived from the original on January 3, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Former State Sen. Joe Kenney Endorses Ovide". RedHampshire.com. January 27, 2012. Archived from the original on January 4, 2011. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
- Zarrabizadeh, Payam. "Free Stuff". Laura Ingraham. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- "Home - NHSOS" (PDF). www.sos.nh.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 25, 2017. Retrieved April 13, 2018.
- http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinionletters/883808-263/hodes-gets-prizefor-funniest-tv-ads.html
- "Dem Paul Hodes In NH-SEN TV Ad: I'm A 'Fiscal Conservative' Video". Vodpod.com. Archived from the original on April 3, 2012. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
- Rayfield, Jillian (September 21, 2010). "Rove-Backed Group Attacks Hodes For 'Fiscal Conservative' Claim (VIDEO) | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved December 11, 2012.
- http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/statenewengland/801156-227/hodes-launches-2nd-attack-ad-against-ayotte.html
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved October 24, 2010.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
- Love, Norma (October 11, 2010). "NH's Hodes, Ayotte clash in 1st debate". The Boston Globe.
- "NH Senate Candidates Hodes, Ayotte Set for Debate". Newsmax. October 28, 2010. Retrieved July 24, 2016.
- "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New Hampshire". fec.gov. Retrieved September 6, 2010.
- "New Hampshire Election Results". The New York Times.
External links
- New Hampshire State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire at Project Vote Smart
- New Hampshire U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- 2010 New Hampshire Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: New Hampshire Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race - Ayotte vs. Hodes from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times
- Official campaign websites (Archived)
- Ovide Lamontange for U.S. Senate
- Kelly Ayotte for U.S. Senate
- Jim Bender for U.S. Senate
- Bill Binnie for U.S. Senate
- Paul Hodes for U.S. Senate
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