2020 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in Montana

November 3, 2020
Turnout	81.33% (of registered voters)
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 343,602 244,786 Percentage 56.92% 40.55%
County Results Trump   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90%   90-100% Biden   50-60%   60-70%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Trump once again carried the state 56.9% to 40.5%, a margin of 16.4%, down from the 20.5% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.

Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation.

Analysis

Montana, an almost-entirely-White, sparsely-populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988,[3] 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.

Trump's principal bases of support were in Glacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers of Flathead County (Kalispell), Ravalli County, Cascade County (Great Falls), and Yellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such as Lincoln and Sanders in Glacier Country, Beaverhead, Madison, and Jefferson in the southwest, Stillwater and Carbon in south central Montana, Fergus in central Montana, Custer in the southeast, and Richland, Dawson, and Valley in the Missouri River Country.

However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% in Missoula County, the state's second-largest county and home to the University of Montana, and winning a majority in Gallatin County, the state's third-largest county and home to Montana State University. Gallatin County had been a typically Republican county as recently as 2012, when it voted for Romney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin in Lewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital, Helena; George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionized Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since 1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956.

Biden flipped one county, Blaine County; Trump flipped no counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing more drilling and mining for natural resources on Montana's public lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[4]

In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on his coattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated term-limited Governor Steve Bullock in the Montana Senate race,[5] Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams in the Montana House race,[6] and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the governor's race.[7] This marked the first time since 2000 that Montana Republicans have held a trifecta.[8]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[9]

Democratic primary

2020 Montana Democratic presidential primary[10]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[11]
Joe Biden	111,706	74.5%	18
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	22,033	14.7%	1
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	11,984	8.0%
Uncommitted	4,250	2.8%
Total	149,973	100%	19

Libertarian nominee

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[12]	Likely R	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13]	Lean R	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]	Likely R	July 14, 2020
Politico[15]	Likely R	September 8, 2020
RCP[16]	Lean R	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]	Likely R	July 26, 2020
CNN[18]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
The Economist[19]	Likely R	September 2, 2020
CBS News[20]	Likely R	August 16, 2020
270towin[21]	Likely R	August 2, 2020
ABC News[22]	Lean R	July 31, 2020
NPR[23]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
NBC News[24]	Likely R	August 6, 2020
538[25]	Likely R	November 2, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	October 15–28, 2020	October 30, 2020	44.8%	50.2%	5.0%	Trump +5.4
FiveThirtyEight	until November 1, 2020	November 1, 2020	45.3%	50.2%	4.5%	Trump +4.9
Average			45.1%	50.2%	4.7%	Trump +5.1

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Other	Undecided
Change Research	Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020	920 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	48%	1%	1%[lower-alpha 3]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,021 (LV)	± 4%	52%[lower-alpha 4]	46%	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,471 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	48%	-	–	–
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 1]	Oct 26–27, 2020	886 (LV)	± 3.3%	49%	47%	-	–	3%
Montana State University Billings	Oct 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	52%	45%	1%	–	2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	43%	3%	2%[lower-alpha 5]	3%[lower-alpha 6]
Strategies 360/NBCMT	Oct 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	43%	3%	–	4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%[lower-alpha 7]	46%	2%	4%[lower-alpha 8]	0%
				48%[lower-alpha 9]	48%	2%	4%[lower-alpha 10]	0%
				52%[lower-alpha 11]	44%	2%	4%[lower-alpha 12]	0%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 9–10, 2020	798 (V)	± 3.5%	52%	46%	-	2%[lower-alpha 13]	0%
Emerson College	Oct 4–7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 3.7%	56%	44%	-	–	–
Data For Progress (D)	Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020	737 (LV)	± 3.6%	49%	43%	3%	0%[lower-alpha 14]	5%
Montana State University Bozeman	Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2020	1,607 (LV)	± 3.9%	51%	44%	–	4%	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	480 (LV)	–	57%	41%	-	–	2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	49%	42%	2%	2%[lower-alpha 15]	5%[lower-alpha 16]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP	Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	43%	-	0%[lower-alpha 17]	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	562 (LV)	–	52%	46%	-	–	1%
Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC[upper-alpha 2]	Aug 22–27, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	44%	-	–	7%[lower-alpha 18]
Emerson College	Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%[lower-alpha 19]	46%	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	527 (LV)	–	53%	44%	-	–	3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[upper-alpha 3]	Jul 23–24, 2020	917 (V)	–	50%	45%	-	–	5%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 4]	Jul 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	42%	-	–	6%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Jul 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	45%	-	5%[lower-alpha 20]	1%
Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter	Jul 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	51%	42%	-	–	7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	166 (LV)	–	57%	41%	-	–	2%
University of Montana	Jun 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	52%	38%	-	–	10%
Montana State University Bozeman	Apr 10–27, 2020	459 (LV)	± 4.6%	45%	40%	-	11%	5%
The Progress Campaign (D)	Apr 14–21, 2020	1,712 (RV)	± 4.6%	51%	42%	-	–	7%[lower-alpha 21]
University of Montana	Feb 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	-	–	10%
University of Montana	Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	54%	47%	-	–	–

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Undecided University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 31% 15% Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Steve Bullock (D) University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 48% 52% Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 35% 13% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 55% 45% Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Undecided University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 31% 15% Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% 9% University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 33% 10% University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% – Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 39% 17%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Mar 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 52% 44% 4% with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Joe Biden (D) Bernie Sanders (D) Donald Trump (R) Other University of Montana Feb 21 – Mar 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.72% 14.7% 8.4% 40% 36.8%[lower-alpha 22]

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[26]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party
Thelma Baker Becky Stockton Brad Tschida	Jean Lemire Dahlman Katie Sullivan Cora Neumann	Francis Wendt Jacob Kitson Cher Kitson

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Montana[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	343,602	56.92%	+0.75%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	244,786	40.55%	+4.80%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	15,252	2.53%	-3.11%
Total votes			603,640	100.00%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Blaine (largest municipality: Chinook)

See also

• United States presidential elections in Montana
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Don't recall" with 1%
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
6. Includes "Refused"
7. Standard VI response
8. "Someone else" with 4%
9. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
10. "Someone else" with 4%
11. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
12. "Someone else" with 4%
13. "Someone else" with 2%
14. Hawkins (G) with 0%
15. Hawkins (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
16. Includes "Refused"
17. "Refused" with 0%
18. Includes "Refused"
19. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
20. "Someone else" with 5%
21. Listed as "other/not sure"
22. "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%

Partisan clients

1. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
2. The House Majority PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
3. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
4. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "For Dukakis, election math grows tight". Christian Science Monitor. October 18, 1988. ISSN 0882-7729. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
4. "Montana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
5. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
6. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
7. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-montana.html
8. Georgiou, Maritsa (November 5, 2020). "Montana GOP leaders lay out legislative priorities". NBC Montana. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
9. "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
10. "2020 Statewide Primary Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
11. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
12. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
15. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
16. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
17. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
18. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
19. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
20. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
21. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
22. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
23. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
24. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
25. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
26. "2020 Presidential Electors and Alternates" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
27. "Montana Federal Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Montana

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Montana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Montana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Montana". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Montana at Ballotpedia