2002 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 2002 took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

2002 Portuguese legislative election
17 March 2002
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,902,713 0.4%
Turnout5,473,655 (61.5%)
0.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader José Manuel Barroso Ferro Rodrigues Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 27 May 1999 20 January 2002 22 March 1998
Leader's seat Lisbon[1] Lisbon[2] Aveiro[3]
Last election 81 seats, 32.3% 115 seats, 44.1% 15 seats, 8.3%
Seats won 105 96 14
Seat change 24 19 1
Popular vote 2,200,765 2,068,584 477,350
Percentage 40.2% 37.8% 8.7%
Swing 7.9 pp 6.3 pp 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Carlos Carvalhas Francisco Louçã
Party PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 5 December 1992 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 17 seats, 9.0% 2 seats, 2.4%
Seats won 12 3
Seat change 5 1
Popular vote 379,870 153,877
Percentage 6.9% 2.7%
Swing 2.0 pp 0.4 pp
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

 Elected Prime Minister

José Manuel Barroso
PSD

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40% of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38% of the vote. This was, and still is, the smallest difference between the two major parties in Portugal. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[6]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[7] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[8]

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[9]

DistrictNumber of MPs
Lisbon48 (-1)
Porto38 (+1)
Braga18 (+1)
Setúbal17
Aveiro15
Leiria10
Santarém10
Coimbra10
Viseu9
Faro8
Viana do Castelo6
Azores5
Madeira5
Vila Real5
Castelo Branco5
Guarda4
Bragança4
Beja3
Évora3 (-1)
Portalegre3
Europe2
Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999-2002) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1999 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Centre-left Ferro Rodrigues 44.1%
115 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism		 Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 32.3%
81 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism
Marxism–Leninism		 Far-left Carlos Carvalhas 9.0%
[lower-alpha 1]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"		 Eco-socialism
Green politics		 Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy
Conservatism		 Centre-right
to right-wing		 Paulo Portas 8.3%
15 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda		 Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism		 Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.4%
2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Fazer bem » "Do well" [10]
PSD « Somos todos Portugal. » "We are all Portugal" [11]
CDU « Mudar para melhor » "Change for the better" [12]
CDS–PP « O braço direito de Portugal » "Portugal's right-hand man" [13]
BE « Com Razões Fortes » "With strong reasons" [14]

Candidates' debates
2002 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Rodrigues		 PSD
Barroso		 CDU
Carvalhas		 CDS–PP
Portas		 BE
Louçã		 Refs
26 Feb SIC P P N N N [15]
12 Mar RTP1 Judite de Sousa
José Alberto Carvalho		 P P P P P [16]

Opinion Polling
See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1999-2002). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

Date Released Polling Firm PSD PS CDU CDS-PP BE Others Lead
17 Mar 2002 Leg. Election 40.2
105 seats		 37.8
96 seats		 6.9
12 seats		 8.7
14 seats		 2.7
3 seats		 3.7
0 seats		 2.4
17 Mar (20:00) RTP1 - Universidade Católica 37.0–42.0 36.0–41.0 5.5–8.0 7.5–10.0 3.0–4.0
—
 1.0
17 Mar (20:00) SIC - Eurosondagem 40.1–43.9 35.5–39.3 6.2–8.4 6.2–8.4 2.0–3.4
—
 4.6
17 Mar (20:00) TVI - INTERCAMPUS 37.8–42.8 35.5–40.5 6.8–9.8 5.3–8.3 1.6–4.2
—
 2.3
Exit polls
15 Mar 2002 Marktest 43.7 35.2 8.1 6.0 3.7 3.3 8.5
15 Mar 2002 Lusófona 43.6 40.9 5.7 7.1 2.8 N/A 2.7
15 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 41.4 39.3 6.9 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.1
15 Mar 2002 Eurequipa 44.7 33.9 7.1 9.1 3.2 2.0 10.8
15 Mar 2002 Universidade Católica 42.2 37.5 6.9 6.8 3.6 3.0 4.7
14 Mar 2002 INTERCAMPUS 41.0 39.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0
14 Mar 2002 Aximage 44.0 40.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 4.0
13 Mar 2002 SIC/Visão 41.0 36.2 6.6 5.2 2.0 9.0 4.8
8 Mar 2002 Marktest 43.0 36.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 7.0
2 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 38.0 35.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 14.0 3.0
Feb 2002 Marktest 45.7 34.7 6.7 7.3 2.5 3.1 11.0
Jan 2002 Marktest 41.8 33.8 9.6 8.1 2.5 4.2 8.0
16 Dec 2001 Local Elections 41.0 37.1 10.6 4.0 1.2 6.1 3.9
Nov 2001 Marktest 33.7 35.4 10.6 11.6 2.9 5.8 1.7
Oct 2001 Marktest 33.9 35.9 10.5 11.5 2.7 5.5 2.0
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 32.3
81 seats		 44.1
115 seats		 9.0
17 seats		 8.3
15 seats		 2.4
2 seats		 3.9
0 seats		 11.9

National summary of votes and seats
 Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1999 2002 ± % ±
Social Democratic 2,200,76540.217.9811052445.6510.41.14
Socialist 2,068,58437.796.3115961941.748.31.10
People's 477,3508.720.4151416.090.40.70
Democratic Unity Coalition[A] 379,8706.942.1171255.222.20.75
Left Bloc 149,9662.740.32311.300.40.47
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,1930.660.00000.000.00.0
Earth 15,5400.280.10000.000.00.0
People's Monarchist 12,3980.230.10000.000.00.0
Humanist 11,4720.210.10000.000.00.0
National Renovator 4,7120.09N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,3160.080.00000.000.00.0
Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union[B] 3,9110.07N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Solidarity 8040.010.20000.000.00.0
Total valid 5,365,881 98.03 0.0 230 230 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 55,1211.010.1
Invalid ballots 52,6530.960.0
Total 5,473,655 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,902,71361.480.4
A Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[17]
B Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 40.21%
PS
 
 37.79%
CDS-PP
 
 8.72%
CDU
 
 6.94%
BE
 
 2.74%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.66%
Others
 
 0.96%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.97%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 45.65%
PS
 
 41.74%
CDS-PP
 
 6.09%
CDU
 
 5.22%
BE
 
 1.30%

Distribution by constituency
 Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE
Azores 45.4 3 41.0 2 8.4 - 1.4 - 1.4 - 5
Aveiro 46.4 8 33.5 5 12.9 2 2.6 - 1.8 - 15
Beja 21.2 - 43.5 2 3.7 - 24.2 1 1.9 - 3
Braga 44.4 9 37.4 8 9.3 1 4.4 - 1.7 - 18
Bragança 53.2 3 30.0 1 10.9 - 1.9 - 0.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 38.3 2 46.1 3 7.1 - 3.3 - 1.5 - 5
Coimbra 41.0 5 41.3 5 6.7 - 5.1 - 2.4 - 10
EvoraÉvora 25.3 1 42.8 1 4.6 - 21.8 1 1.8 - 3
Faro 37.7 4 40.5 4 8.3 - 6.3 - 2.8 - 8
Guarda 48.5 2 34.7 2 9.6 - 2.2 - 1.2 - 4
Leiria 50.8 6 29.5 3 9.8 1 4.1 - 2.2 - 10
Lisbon 35.7 18 38.7 20 8.5 4 8.8 4 4.7 2 48
Madeira 53.5 4 25.8 1 12.1 - 2.5 - 3.1 - 5
Portalegre 30.6 1 45.2 2 6.4 - 12.4 - 1.6 - 3
Porto 40.0 16 41.2 17 8.4 3 4.6 1 2.7 1 38
Santarém 38.1 4 38.4 4 8.4 1 8.6 1 2.9 - 10
Setúbal 24.7 5 39.3 7 6.9 1 20.5 4 4.6 - 17
Viana do Castelo 45.5 3 35.3 3 10.3 - 3.5 - 1.8 - 6
Vila Real 54.1 3 31.9 2 8.1 - 2.0 - 0.9 - 5
Viseu 52.1 5 31.1 3 10.6 1 1.5 - 1.4 - 9
zEurope 36.9 1 42.1 1 5.0 - 4.8 - 1.1 - 2
zRest of the World 66.3 2 21.5 - 3.4 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 2
Total 40.2 105 37.8 96 8.7 14 6.9 12 2.7 3 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Further reading
  • Freire, André (November 2004). "Issue Voting in Portugal: The 2002 Legislative Elections". West European Politics. 27 (5): 779–800. doi:10.1080/0140238042000283328.

Notes
  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.

References
  1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  7. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  8. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  9. "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  10. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  11. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  12. "PCP Legislativas 2002". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  13. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  14. "Manifesto Legislativas 2002". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. "Debate Ferro/Durão visto por 1,2 milhões de espectadores". Público (in Portuguese). 27 Feb 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. "DEBATE: LEGISLATIVAS 2005". RTP1 (in Portuguese). 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

See also
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