1995 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 1995 took place on 1 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

1995 Portuguese legislative election
1 October 1995
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,906,608 5.3%
Turnout5,904,854 (66.3%)
1.5 pp
  First party Second party
 
Leader António Guterres Fernando Nogueira
Party PS PSD
Leader since 23 February 1992 19 February 1995
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Porto[2]
Last election 72 seats, 29.1% 135 seats, 50.6%
Seats won 112 88
Seat change 40 47
Popular vote 2,583,755 2,014,589
Percentage 43.8% 34.1%
Swing 14.7 pp 16.5 pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Manuel Monteiro Carlos Carvalhas
Party CDS–PP PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 22 March 1992 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Braga[3] Lisbon[4]
Last election 5 seats, 4.4% 17 seats, 8.8%
Seats won 15 15
Seat change 10 2
Popular vote 534,470 506,157
Percentage 9.1% 8.6%
Swing 4.7 pp 0.2 pp
Prime Minister before election

Aníbal Cavaco Silva
PSD

 Elected Prime Minister

António Guterres
PS

The incumbent Prime Minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, decided not to run for a fourth consecutive term[5] and the Social Democratic Party, choose Fernando Nogueira, one of Cavaco Silva's deputies, as leader and candidate for Prime Minister in a highly contested and bitter party congress in February 1995.[6] But, the PSD was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva, amid scandals and the 1994 25 April bridge riots that shocked the country.[7] During the campaign, Cavaco Silva toyed with the idea of running for the 1996 Presidential elections, which he ultimately did.[8]

The PS easily won the elections with 44% of the votes, against the 34% of the PSD, achieving their first general election victory since 1983 and after a decade in opposition, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. António Guterres, elected as PS leader three years before, became Prime Minister. The Social Democratic Party suffered a heavy defeat, losing almost 50 seats and 17% of the votes. This election marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved only 15 MPs each, and for the first time ever the CDU failed to win a single district.

Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980. Voter turnout stood at 66.3%, the lowest until then.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[9]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[10] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[11]

For these elections, and compared with the 1991 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[12]

DistrictNumber of MPs
Lisbon50
Porto37
Setúbal17 (+1)
Braga16
Aveiro14
Leiria10
Santarém10
Coimbra10
Viseu9
Faro8
Viana do Castelo6
Madeira5
Azores5
Vila Real5 (-1)
Castelo Branco5
Guarda4
Bragança4
Évora4
Beja4
Portalegre3
Europe2
Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 6th legislature (1991-1995) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1991 result
Votes (%) Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism		 Centre-right Fernando Nogueira 50.6%
135 / 230
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Centre-left António Guterres 29.1%
72 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism
Marxism–Leninism		 Far-left Carlos Carvalhas 8.8%
[lower-alpha 1]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"		 Eco-socialism
Green politics		 Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy
Conservatism		 Centre-right
to right-wing		 Manuel Monteiro 4.4%
5 / 230
PSN National Solidarity Party
Partido da Solidariedade Nacional		 Humanism
Pensioners' rights		 Centre Carlos Bastos 1.7%
1 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Mais e melhor para Portugal » "More and better for Portugal" [13]
PS « A nova maioria » "The new majority." [14]
CDU « Vamos dar a volta a isto » "Let's turn this around" [15]
CDS–PP « Vamos dar lugar a Portugal » "Let's make way for Portugal" [16]

Candidates' debates

The 1995 debates, between PSD leader Fernando Nogueira and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

1995 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Nogueira		 PS
Guterres		 Refs
6 Sep RTP1 José Eduardo Moniz
Maria Elisa Domingues		 P P [17]
13 Sep SIC Miguel Sousa Tavares
Margarida Marante		 P P [17]

Opinion Polling
See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1991-1995). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.
  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Date Released Polling Firm PSD PS CDU CDS-PP Others Lead
1 Oct 1995 Leg. Election 34.1
88 seats		 43.8
112 seats		 8.6
15 seats		 9.1
15 seats		 4.4
0 seats		 9.7
1 Oct RTP/Euroteste 33.4 40.3 12.4 9.9 4.0 6.9
1 Oct SIC/Metris 34.5 42.2 9.0 9.2 5.1 7.7
1 Oct TVI/Universidade Católica 35.5 41.0 8.0 10.0 5.5 5.5
Exit polls
29 Sep Norma 40.3 35.2 9.7 9.3 5.5 5.1
23 Sep Metris 32.0 42.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 10.0
23 Sep Euroteste 35.0 39.0 9.0 10.0 7.0 4.0
23 Sep Euroexpansão 32.7 44.5 11.5 6.9 4.4 11.8
23 Sep Universidade Católica 35.0 40.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 5.0
22 Sep IPSOS 35.0 41.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.0
21 Sep Marktest 33.0 42.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 9.0
16 Sep Compta 39.0 40.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 1.0
14 Jul Compta RH 36.8 44.4 9.9 6.5 2.4 7.6
30 Jun Compta RH 34.8 45.4 8.6 8.1 3.1 10.6
9 Jun Compta RH 31.2 45.6 9.7 8.6 4.9 14.4
1995
6 Oct 1991 Leg. Election 50.6
135 seats		 29.1
72 seats		 8.8
17 seats		 4.4
5 seats		 7.1
1 seats		 21.5

National summary of votes and seats
 Summary of the 1 October 1995 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1991 1995 ± % ±
Socialist 2,583,75543.7614.7721124048.7017.41.11
Social Democratic 2,014,58934.1216.5135884738.2620.41.12
People's[A] 534,4709.054.7515106.524.30.72
Democratic Unity Coalition[B] 506,1578.570.2171526.520.90.76
Portuguese Workers' Communist 41,1370.700.20000.000.00.0
Revolutionary Socialist 37,6380.640.50000.000.00.0
People's Democratic Union 33,8760.570.50000.000.00.0
National Solidarity 12,6130.211.51010.000.40.0
Party of the People 8,2790.14N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Earth 8,2350.14N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Earth / People's Monarchist 5,9320.10N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Unity Movement for Workers 2,5440.04N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic 2,5360.040.20000.000.00.0
Total valid 5,791,761 98.08 0.0 230 230 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 45,7930.780.0
Invalid ballots 67,3001.140.0
Total 5,904,854 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,906,60866.301.5
A In 1993, the name "People's Party" was added to the party's name.
B Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[18]
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 43.76%
PSD
 
 34.12%
CDS-PP
 
 9.05%
CDU
 
 8.57%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.70%
PSR
 
 0.64%
UDP
 
 0.57%
Others
 
 0.67%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.92%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 48.70%
PSD
 
 38.26%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
CDU
 
 6.52%

Distribution by constituency
 Results of the 1995 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the
Republic by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP CDU
Azores 37.6 2 47.8 3 9.4 - 1.8 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 6 41.2 6 12.6 2 2.7 - 14
Beja 45.8 2 15.7 1 3.6 - 29.2 1 4
Braga 42.9 8 38.2 7 10.7 1 4.5 - 16
Bragança 40.3 2 44.8 2 9.4 - 1.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 53.2 3 32.1 2 7.2 - 5.3 - 5
Coimbra 49.1 6 34.5 4 7.1 - 5.1 - 10
EvoraÉvora 42.6 2 20.2 1 5.2 - 26.9 1 4
Faro 49.6 5 29.2 3 8.3 - 7.8 - 8
Guarda 43.7 2 39.9 2 9.9 - 2.3 - 4
Leiria 36.7 4 43.3 5 11.4 1 4.5 - 10
Lisbon 44.3 24 29.0 15 9.4 5 12.0 6 50
Madeira 32.0 2 46.1 3 12.9 - 1.3 - 5
Portalegre 50.5 2 23.4 1 6.3 - 14.0 - 3
Porto 46.7 18 36.4 14 7.8 3 6.0 2 37
Santarém 45.8 5 31.0 3 8.7 1 9.5 1 10
Setúbal 44.9 9 18.4 3 7.2 1 23.8 4 17
Viana do Castelo 38.8 3 42.1 3 11.3 - 4.6 - 6
Vila Real 40.0 2 46.0 3 7.8 - 1.9 - 5
Viseu 38.4 4 44.3 4 11.5 1 1.8 - 9
zEurope 35.1 1 33.8 1 4.4 - 6.4 - 2
zRest of the World 12.8 - 69.3 2 3.8 - 1.2 - 2
Total 43.8 112 34.1 88 9.1 15 8.6 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Notes
  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.8% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.

References
  1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD", RTP Arquivo, 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  6. [https://www.tsf.pt/politica/big-show-psd-drama-comedia-suspense---ha-de-tudo-em-37-anos-de-congressos-9122718.html ""Big Show PSD": Drama, comédia, suspense - há de tudo em 37 anos de congressos , TSF, 16 February 2018. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  7. "Bloqueio da ponte. O princípio do fim do cavaquismo foi há 25 anos", Diário de Notícias, 22 July 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  8. "Conferência de imprensa de Cavaco Silva", RTP Arquivo, 7 February 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  9. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  10. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  11. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  12. "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  13. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  14. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. "PCP – 1995". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. "O que mudam os debates na TV". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). 4 September 2009. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  18. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

See also
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