1999 Portuguese legislative election

The Portuguese legislative election of 1999 took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

1999 Portuguese legislative election
10 October 1999
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,864,604 0.5%
Turnout5,415,102 (61.1%)
5.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader António Guterres José Manuel Barroso Carlos Carvalhas
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 23 February 1992 27 May 1999 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Lisbon[2] Lisbon[3]
Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 115 81 17
Seat change 3 7 2
Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058
Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Swing 0.3 pp 1.8 pp 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 15 seats, 9.0% New party
Seats won 15 2
Seat change 0 N/A
Popular vote 451,643 132,333
Percentage 8.3% 2.4%
Swing 0.7 pp N/A
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

 Elected Prime Minister

António Guterres
PS

The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, incumbent Prime Minister, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position.[6] Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreaments with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections.[7] The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3%.[8] The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow.[9] The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32% of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed in 2009 and 2011 when turnout was just less than 60%. Overall, voter turnout reached only 61% of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[10]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[11] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[12]

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[13]

DistrictNumber of MPs
Lisbon49 (-1)
Porto37
Braga17 (+1)
Setúbal17
Aveiro14 (+1)
Leiria10
Santarém10
Coimbra10
Viseu9
Faro8
Viana do Castelo6
Madeira5
Azores5
Vila Real5
Castelo Branco5
Guarda4
Bragança4
Évora4
Beja3 (-1)
Portalegre3
Europe2
Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995-1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Centre-left António Guterres 43.8%
112 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism		 Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1%
88 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy
Conservatism		 Centre-right
to right-wing		 Paulo Portas 9.1%
15 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism
Marxism–Leninism		 Far-left Carlos Carvalhas 8.6%
[lower-alpha 1]
13 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"		 Eco-socialism
Green politics		 Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans
Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [14]
PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [15]
CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [16]
CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [17]
BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [18]

Candidates' debates
1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Guterres		 PSD
Barroso		 CDU
Carvalhas		 CDS–PP
Portas		 Refs
16 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P P N N [19]
17 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N N P P [19]
19 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P N P [19]
20 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N P N [19]
21 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N N P [19]
22 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P P N [19]
23 Sep RTP1 Judite de Sousa P P P P [20]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25 N/A N/A 18% Neither

Opinion polling
See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1995-1999). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

Date Released Polling Firm PS PSD CDU CDS-PP BE Others Lead
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 44.1
115 seats		 32.3
81 seats		 9.0
17 seats		 8.3
15 seats		 2.4
2 seats		 3.9
0 seats		 11.8
10 Oct RTP/Universidade Católica 46.0 30.3 8.5 7.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
10 Oct SIC/Seeds 46.3 31.5 9.8 8.0 2.8 1.6 14.8
10 Oct TVI/Intercampus 46.3 28.6 9.5 8.3 3.2 4.1 17.7
Exit polls
2 Oct Euroexpansão 50.0 32.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 18.0
1 Oct Seeds 47.0 32.0 8.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 15.0
1 Oct Metris 48.0 31.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 17.0
1 Oct Universidade Católica 47.2 30.0 7.9 7.2 2.8 4.9 17.2
30 Sep Marktest 46.2 30.7 10.6 4.2 2.8 5.5 15.5
30 Sep Aximage 49.0 33.0 7.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 16.0
29 Jul Universidade Católica 52.0 31.6 6.9 6.2 1.9 1.4 20.4
1999
1 Oct 1995 Leg. Election 43.8
112 seats		 34.1
88 seats		 8.6
15 seats		 9.1
15 seats		 Did not exist 4.4
0 seats		 9.7

National summary of votes and seats
 Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1995 1999 ± % ±
Socialist 2,385,92244.060.3112115350.001.31.13
Social Democratic 1,750,15832.321.88881735.223.11.09
Unitary Democratic Coalition[A] 487,0588.990.4151727.390.90.82
People's 451,6438.340.7151506.520.00.78
Left Bloc 132,3332.44N/AN/A2N/A0.87N/A0.36
Portuguese Workers' Communist 40,0060.740.00000.000.00.0
Earth 19,9380.370.30000.000.00.0
People's Monarchist 16,5220.31N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Solidarity 11,4880.210.00000.000.00.0
Humanist 7,3460.14N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,1040.080.10000.000.00.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic[B] 4380.010.00000.000.00.0
Total valid 5,306,956 98.00 0.1 230 230 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 56,9641.050.3
Invalid ballots 51,2300.950.1
Total 5,415,102 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,864,60461.095.2
A Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[21]
B Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 44.06%
PSD
 
 32.32%
CDU
 
 8.99%
CDS-PP
 
 8.34%
BE
 
 2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.74%
Others
 
 1.12%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 50.00%
PSD
 
 35.22%
CDU
 
 7.39%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
BE
 
 0.87%

Distribution by constituency
 Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores 53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja 46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga 44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco 51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra 47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
EvoraÉvora 45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro 48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda 43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon 42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre 51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto 48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém 45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal 43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo 40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
zEurope 55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
zRest of the World 39.8 1 49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total 44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps
  • Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)
  • Most voted political force by municipality.

Notes
  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.6% of the vote and elected 15 MPs to parliament.

References
  1. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. "World: Europe Portugal goes to the polls", BBC News, 10 October 1999. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  7. "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  8. "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 16 October 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  9. "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  10. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  11. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  12. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  13. "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  14. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – EVORA – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – PSD – DURÃO BARROSO". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. "PCP Legislativas 1999". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  18. "Programa Legislativas 1999". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  19. "Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato". Expresso (in Portuguese). 9 September 2015. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  20. "Operação Legislativas no ar". Público (in Portuguese). 8 September 1999. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  21. "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

See also
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