2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 15 0 Popular vote 1,961,166 1,525,849 Percentage 56.02% 43.58%

County Results Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since the 1976 presidential election of Jimmy Carter. While winning the state comfortably, President Bush’s margin of 12.44% proved to be 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

• North Carolina Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Likely Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160.[3] Kerry raised $2,049,794.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election.[7] In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day.[8]

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2020. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2020, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.[9]

As of 2020, this is the last election in which a presidential candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Richard Cheney	1,961,166	56.02%	15
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,525,849	43.58%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,731	0.34%	0
	Others	N/A	N/A	2,261	0.06%	0
Totals				3,501,007	100%	15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)						55.4%

Results by county

County	George Walker Bush Republican		John Forbes Kerry Democratic		Michael J. Badnarik Libertarian		Various candidates Other parties		Margin
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Yadkin	77.16%	11,816	22.54%	3,451	0.27%	42	0.03%	4	54.63%	8,365
Avery	75.47%	5,678	23.99%	1,805	0.39%	29	0.16%	12	51.48%	3,873
Davie	74.17%	12,372	25.38%	4,233	0.40%	66	0.05%	9	48.79%	8,139
Randolph	74.19%	37,771	25.47%	12,966	0.33%	170	0.01%	3	48.72%	24,805
Mitchell	72.92%	5,686	26.67%	2,080	0.40%	31	0.01%	1	46.24%	3,606
Davidson	70.72%	42,075	28.89%	17,191	0.34%	203	0.05%	27	41.82%	24,884
Wilkes	70.70%	19,197	28.95%	7,862	0.30%	82	0.05%	13	41.74%	11,335
Union	70.20%	42,820	29.47%	17,974	0.28%	169	0.06%	38	40.73%	24,846
Alexander	70.05%	10,928	29.60%	4,618	0.33%	52	0.01%	2	40.45%	6,310
Stokes	69.96%	13,583	29.71%	5,767	0.29%	56	0.04%	8	40.26%	7,816
Stanly	69.71%	17,814	29.94%	7,650	0.34%	86	0.01%	3	39.78%	10,164
Onslow	69.45%	25,890	30.18%	11,250	0.33%	122	0.04%	15	39.27%	14,640
Carteret	69.27%	17,716	30.23%	7,732	0.39%	100	0.11%	27	39.04%	9,984
Iredell	67.88%	38,675	31.71%	18,065	0.26%	148	0.15%	85	36.18%	20,610
Johnston	67.89%	36,903	31.76%	17,266	0.23%	123	0.12%	65	36.13%	19,637
Gaston	67.84%	43,252	31.77%	20,254	0.33%	208	0.06%	41	36.07%	22,998
Lincoln	67.79%	20,052	31.89%	9,434	0.30%	88	0.02%	5	35.90%	10,618
Surry	67.66%	17,587	31.95%	8,304	0.39%	101	0.00%	0	35.71%	9,283
Caldwell	67.58%	21,186	31.90%	9,999	0.35%	111	0.17%	52	35.69%	11,187
Graham	67.54%	2,693	31.90%	1,272	0.53%	21	0.03%	1	35.64%	1,421
Catawba	67.48%	39,602	32.13%	18,858	0.31%	182	0.08%	46	35.35%	20,744
Rowan	67.32%	34,915	32.27%	16,735	0.36%	187	0.06%	30	35.05%	18,180
Cherokee	67.12%	7,517	32.46%	3,635	0.37%	41	0.05%	6	34.66%	3,882
Currituck	66.99%	6,013	32.41%	2,909	0.59%	53	0.01%	1	34.58%	3,104
Cabarrus	67.05%	40,780	32.56%	19,803	0.37%	224	0.03%	17	34.49%	20,977
Rutherford	66.28%	16,343	33.19%	8,184	0.51%	126	0.02%	5	33.09%	8,159
McDowell	66.18%	10,590	33.31%	5,330	0.40%	64	0.11%	18	32.87%	5,260
Clay	65.95%	3,209	33.46%	1,628	0.51%	25	0.08%	4	32.49%	1,581
Henderson	64.82%	28,025	34.70%	15,003	0.40%	172	0.08%	34	30.12%	13,022
Camden	64.75%	2,480	34.96%	1,339	0.18%	7	0.10%	4	29.79%	1,141
Moore	64.39%	24,714	35.32%	13,555	0.26%	98	0.04%	15	29.07%	11,159
Harnett	64.24%	20,922	35.50%	11,563	0.24%	79	0.02%	7	28.73%	9,359
Beaufort	63.68%	12,432	35.99%	7,025	0.30%	58	0.04%	7	27.70%	5,407
Macon	62.89%	9,448	36.53%	5,489	0.43%	65	0.15%	22	26.35%	3,959
Craven	62.44%	23,575	37.13%	14,019	0.36%	136	0.07%	26	25.31%	9,556
Wayne	62.14%	24,883	37.65%	15,076	0.18%	71	0.04%	16	24.49%	9,807
Ashe	61.68%	7,292	37.87%	4,477	0.46%	54	0.00%	0	23.81%	2,815
Burke	61.51%	18,922	38.12%	11,728	0.36%	110	0.01%	2	23.39%	7,194
Alamance	61.47%	33,302	38.18%	20,686	0.29%	157	0.06%	30	23.29%	12,616
Cleveland	61.36%	22,750	38.34%	14,215	0.25%	93	0.06%	21	23.02%	8,535
Rockingham	61.09%	22,840	38.60%	14,430	0.24%	89	0.08%	29	22.49%	8,410
Pamlico	60.93%	3,679	38.67%	2,335	0.33%	20	0.07%	4	22.26%	1,344
Lee	60.55%	11,834	39.18%	7,657	0.27%	52	0.00%	0	21.37%	4,177
Brunswick	60.37%	22,925	39.24%	14,903	0.34%	130	0.05%	19	21.12%	8,022
Transylvania	60.21%	9,386	39.11%	6,097	0.58%	90	0.10%	15	21.10%	3,289
Dare	60.10%	9,345	39.46%	6,136	0.40%	62	0.03%	5	20.64%	3,209
Perquimans	59.80%	2,965	39.75%	1,971	0.40%	20	0.04%	2	20.05%	994
Alleghany	59.73%	2,883	39.82%	1,922	0.37%	18	0.08%	4	19.91%	961
Person	58.98%	8,973	40.74%	6,198	0.27%	41	0.01%	2	18.24%	2,775
Pender	58.75%	10,037	40.97%	6,999	0.26%	45	0.02%	4	17.78%	3,038
Greene	58.71%	3,800	41.18%	2,665	0.11%	7	0.00%	0	17.54%	1,135
Nash	58.14%	21,902	41.66%	15,693	0.18%	66	0.03%	12	16.48%	6,209
Duplin	57.96%	9,611	41.75%	6,923	0.25%	41	0.05%	8	16.21%	2,688
Jones	57.77%	2,607	41.95%	1,893	0.27%	12	0.02%	1	15.82%	714
Polk	56.98%	5,140	41.98%	3,787	0.99%	89	0.06%	5	15.00%	1,353
Montgomery	56.99%	5,745	42.79%	4,313	0.19%	19	0.03%	3	14.21%	1,432
Sampson	56.53%	12,600	43.29%	9,649	0.17%	38	0.00%	1	13.24%	2,951
Haywood	56.09%	14,545	43.33%	11,237	0.44%	113	0.14%	37	12.76%	3,308
New Hanover	55.82%	45,351	43.78%	35,572	0.37%	302	0.03%	22	12.04%	9,779
Lenoir	55.82%	12,939	44.04%	10,207	0.13%	31	0.01%	2	11.79%	2,732
Franklin	55.17%	11,540	44.39%	9,286	0.34%	72	0.10%	20	10.78%	2,254
Chowan	55.09%	2,967	44.67%	2,406	0.24%	13	0.00%	0	10.42%	561
Madison	54.69%	5,175	44.74%	4,234	0.56%	53	0.01%	1	9.94%	941
Forsyth	54.12%	75,294	45.53%	63,340	0.35%	491	0.00%	0	8.59%	11,954
Hyde	53.86%	1,235	45.70%	1,048	0.39%	9	0.04%	1	8.16%	187
Tyrrell	53.77%	855	45.97%	731	0.25%	4	0.00%	0	7.80%	124
Pitt	53.30%	28,590	46.46%	24,924	0.20%	108	0.04%	21	6.83%	3,666
Wilson	53.26%	16,264	46.52%	14,206	0.20%	60	0.02%	5	6.74%	2,058
Watauga	52.64%	12,659	46.70%	11,232	0.56%	135	0.10%	24	5.93%	1,427
Yancey	52.38%	4,940	47.02%	4,434	0.36%	34	0.24%	23	5.37%	506
Jackson	51.86%	7,351	47.53%	6,737	0.54%	76	0.07%	10	4.33%	614
Cumberland	51.60%	49,139	48.08%	45,788	0.26%	247	0.05%	52	3.52%	3,351
Caswell	51.58%	4,868	48.10%	4,539	0.23%	22	0.08%	8	3.49%	329
Swain	51.47%	2,593	48.02%	2,419	0.50%	25	0.02%	1	3.45%	174
Granville	51.02%	9,491	48.69%	9,057	0.24%	44	0.05%	9	2.33%	434
Martin	51.03%	5,334	48.81%	5,102	0.13%	14	0.02%	2	2.22%	232
Wake	50.83%	177,324	48.71%	169,909	0.39%	1,353	0.07%	258	2.13%	7,415
Columbus	50.84%	10,773	48.81%	10,343	0.30%	63	0.06%	12	2.03%	430
Buncombe	49.99%	52,491	49.39%	51,868	0.48%	501	0.15%	153	0.59%	623
Bladen	50.14%	6,174	49.61%	6,109	0.24%	29	0.01%	1	0.53%	65
Chatham	49.73%	12,892	49.75%	12,897	0.44%	115	0.07%	18	-0.02%	-5
Guilford	49.30%	98,254	50.19%	100,042	0.42%	836	0.09%	182	-0.90%	-1,788
Hoke	48.66%	5,527	51.01%	5,794	0.27%	31	0.05%	6	-2.35%	-267
Pasquotank	48.42%	6,609	51.17%	6,984	0.40%	54	0.01%	1	-2.75%	-375
Mecklenburg	48.00%	155,084	51.63%	166,828	0.31%	988	0.06%	202	-3.63%	-11,744
Richmond	47.75%	7,709	51.92%	8,383	0.19%	30	0.14%	23	-4.17%	-674
Gates	47.47%	1,924	52.33%	2,121	0.17%	7	0.02%	1	-4.86%	-197
Robeson	46.97%	15,909	52.75%	17,868	0.21%	72	0.06%	22	-5.78%	-1,959
Washington	45.40%	2,484	54.27%	2,969	0.22%	12	0.11%	6	-8.86%	-485
Scotland	44.52%	5,141	55.30%	6,386	0.16%	18	0.02%	2	-10.78%	-1,245
Vance	43.91%	6,884	55.89%	8,762	0.20%	31	0.00%	0	-11.98%	-1,878
Halifax	41.17%	8,088	58.68%	11,528	0.13%	26	0.03%	5	-17.51%	-3,440
Anson	41.15%	3,796	58.68%	5,413	0.16%	15	0.01%	1	-17.53%	-1,617
Bertie	38.06%	3,057	61.48%	4,938	0.44%	35	0.02%	2	-23.42%	-1,881
Edgecombe	38.73%	8,163	61.09%	12,877	0.17%	36	0.01%	3	-22.36%	-4,714
Hertford	36.18%	2,942	63.22%	5,141	0.52%	42	0.09%	7	-27.04%	-2,199
Northampton	36.21%	3,176	63.67%	5,584	0.08%	7	0.03%	3	-27.46%	-2,408
Warren	35.38%	2,840	64.42%	5,171	0.11%	9	0.09%	7	-29.04%	-2,331
Orange	32.38%	20,771	66.89%	42,910	0.53%	338	0.21%	134	-34.51%	-22,139
Durham	31.57%	34,614	67.96%	74,524	0.35%	381	0.12%	132	-36.40%	-39,910

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts.[10]

District	Bush	Kerry
1st	42%	57%	G.K. Butterfield
2nd	54%	46%	Bob Etheridge
3rd	68%	32%	Walter B. Jones
4th	44%	55%	David Price
5th	66%	33%	Richard Burr
			Virginia Foxx
6th	69%	30%	Howard Coble
7th	56%	44%	Mike McIntyre
8th	54%	45%	Robin Hayes
9th	63%	36%	Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th	67%	33%	Cass Ballenger
			Patrick T. McHenry
11th	57%	43%	Charles H. Taylor
12th	37%	63%	Mel Watt
13th	47%	52%	Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

1. Joseph W. Powell
2. Ann Sullivan
3. William B. Carraway
4. Sandra Carter
5. William H. Trotter
6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
7. Judy Keener
8. Marcia M. Spiegel
9. Dewitt Rhoades
10. Davey G. Williamson
11. Theresa Esposito
12. Elizabeth Kelly
13. Larry W. Potts
14. Joe Morgan
15. Robert Rector

References

2. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2008-11-28. Retrieved 2009-10-10.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
5. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
6. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
7. "USATODAY.com - Poll: Edwards pick gives Kerry's campaign a boost". www.usatoday.com.
8. "RealClear Politics - Polls". www.realclearpolitics.com.
9. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
10. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.

External links

• General election results from OurCampaigns.com