2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

The 2004 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 9 0 Popular vote 1,101,255 1,001,732 Percentage 51.69% 47.02%

County Results Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90% Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Colorado was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 4.67% margin of victory. Prior to the election, ten of twelve news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, although both campaigns targeted it as the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, was born in Colorado. On election day, Bush did carry Colorado, but by only about half the 8.4% margin he won over Al Gore in 2000. Additionally, Colorado voters decided not to pass a referendum that would have split their electoral vote for this and future presidential elections.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time the Republican nominee carried Colorado in a presidential election, as well as Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Larimer County, and Ouray County.[1] This is also the only presidential election that Broomfield County, created in 2001, has voted Republican.[1] It was also the first time any candidate received a million votes in the state.

Primaries

• 2004 Colorado Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Leans Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Although considered a battleground state, Bush won almost every pre-election poll. The final three polls averaged Bush leading with 51% to 44%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,598,226.[4] Kerry raised $3,229,631.[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall election campaign, the Republican ticket visited Colorado 5 times. The Democratic ticket visited 7 times.[6] Bush and Kerry also heavily advertised each week. Bush spent just over $400,000 each week. Kerry spent over $500,000 each week.[7]

Analysis

The key to Bush's victory in the state was winning most of the largely populated counties, such as Jefferson County, Douglas County, El Paso County, Arapahoe County, and Larimer County. Combined with his strength in rural Colorado, this offset Kerry's strength in Denver and Boulder County and in several smaller counties hosting ski resorts, such as Gunnison (Crested Butte), Eagle (Vail), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and La Plata (Purgatory Resort).

Nevertheless, Bush's margin in Colorado was reduced substantially with respect to 2000, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Kerry flipped seven counties--Gunnison, Eagle, Routt, La Plata, Clear Creek, Conejos, and San Juan, the last of which voted Democratic for the first time since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide.[lower-alpha 1][8] Most critically, however, Bush's vote share in the city of Denver dipped from 30.9% to 29.3%--a lower vote share than Dole had received in the city in 1996--and his margin of defeat in Denver swelled from 31.0% to 40.3%, as Kerry won the highest vote share in the city of any nominee in over a century. Similarly, in Boulder County, the other large blue jurisdiction in the state at the time, Bush's vote share dipped from 36.4% to 32.4%--again, below Dole's in 1996--and Kerry expanded Gore's 13.7% margin to 33.9%, as he posted the best showing in the county of any nominee since Eisenhower in 1956. Meanwhile, Bush's margin shrank markedly in Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer Counties, in all of which Kerry gained substantially on Gore. Bush's vote share actually receded slightly in Arapahoe and Larimer. All of these trends continued into 2008 and beyond, contributing to making Colorado a lean-Democratic, and, by 2020, a relatively solidly Democratic, state. Despite what at the time was a historically low vote share in Denver, Bush remains, as of 2020, the last Republican to have cracked even a quarter of the vote in Denver.

At the same time, Bush also had areas of improvement in Colorado. He increased his margin in then-staunchly Republican El Paso County by 1.5%, and cut Kerry's margin in Pueblo County, historically the largest Democratic stronghold in the state, from 11.3% to 6.3%, posting the best showing for a Republican in the county since 1984. He also flipped Huerfano County, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Nixon's 1972 landslide;[8] his win there reflected what was, for a Republican, his strong appeal amongst Hispanic voters, which also helped him narrowly carry New Mexico and boosted his margin in his native Texas.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Colorado[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	1,101,255	51.69%	9
	Democratic	John Kerry	1,001,732	47.02%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	12,718	0.60%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	7,664	0.36%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,562	0.12%	0
	Green	David Cobb	1,591	0.07%	0
	Independent	Stanford Andress	804	0.04%	0
	Independent	Write-Ins	700	0.03%	0
	Concerns of People	Gene Amondson	378	0.02%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	329	0.02%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	241	0.01%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	216	0.01%	0
	Prohibition	Earl Dodge	140	0.01%	0
Totals			2,130,330	100.00%	9
Voter turnout (Voting Age)					62.7%

Results by county

County	George Walker Bush[10] Republican		John Forbes Kerry[10] Democratic		Ralph Nader[10] Independent		Michael J. Badnarik[10] Libertarian		Various candidates Other parties		Margin
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Cheyenne	81.39%	923	17.46%	198	0.62%	7	0.09%	1	0.44%	5	63.93%	725
Washington	81.03%	2,050	17.98%	455	0.43%	11	0.24%	6	0.32%	8	63.04%	1,595
Rio Blanco	80.02%	2,403	18.85%	566	0.57%	17	0.30%	9	0.27%	8	61.17%	1,837
Kiowa	79.82%	712	19.28%	172	0.34%	3	0.22%	2	0.34%	3	60.54%	540
Kit Carson	77.70%	2,721	20.82%	729	0.66%	23	0.26%	9	0.57%	20	56.88%	1,992
Lincoln	77.83%	1,819	21.52%	503	0.30%	7	0.09%	2	0.26%	6	56.31%	1,316
Baca	76.85%	1,680	22.10%	483	0.50%	11	0.37%	8	0.18%	4	54.76%	1,197
Jackson	76.02%	710	22.48%	210	0.75%	7	0.43%	4	0.32%	3	53.53%	500
Yuma	75.81%	3,456	23.34%	1,064	0.37%	17	0.18%	8	0.31%	14	52.47%	2,392
Moffat	74.18%	4,247	23.67%	1,355	1.14%	65	0.40%	23	0.61%	35	50.52%	2,892
Elbert	73.84%	8,389	24.94%	2,834	0.46%	52	0.29%	33	0.47%	53	48.90%	5,555
Phillips	73.85%	1,717	25.03%	582	0.60%	14	0.30%	7	0.22%	5	48.82%	1,135
Prowers	71.49%	3,392	27.57%	1,308	0.55%	26	0.15%	7	0.25%	12	43.92%	2,084
Sedgwick	71.40%	971	27.50%	374	0.66%	9	0.29%	4	0.15%	2	43.90%	597
Logan	70.36%	6,168	28.42%	2,491	0.66%	58	0.16%	14	0.40%	35	41.95%	3,677
Montrose	69.17%	11,218	29.45%	4,776	0.62%	100	0.41%	67	0.36%	58	39.72%	6,442
Dolores	68.50%	785	29.06%	333	0.79%	9	0.26%	3	1.40%	16	39.44%	452
Delta	68.66%	9,722	29.83%	4,224	0.74%	105	0.42%	59	0.35%	49	38.83%	5,498
Teller	68.36%	8,094	30.03%	3,556	0.77%	91	0.57%	68	0.26%	31	38.33%	4,538
Custer	68.25%	1,657	30.44%	739	0.54%	13	0.41%	10	0.37%	9	37.81%	918
Morgan	68.31%	6,787	30.59%	3,039	0.64%	64	0.15%	15	0.31%	31	37.72%	3,748
Mesa	67.12%	41,539	31.61%	19,564	0.68%	420	0.32%	197	0.27%	165	35.51%	21,975
Crowley	67.38%	1,006	32.02%	478	0.07%	1	0.27%	4	0.27%	4	35.37%	528
Fremont	67.18%	12,313	32.37%	5,933	0.39%	72	0.06%	11	0.00%	0	34.81%	6,380
El Paso	66.74%	161,361	32.11%	77,648	0.55%	1,319	0.37%	896	0.23%	562	34.62%	83,713
Douglas	66.54%	80,651	32.72%	39,661	0.34%	418	0.26%	314	0.13%	156	33.82%	40,990
Montezuma	63.44%	6,988	35.11%	3,867	0.79%	87	0.35%	39	0.31%	34	28.33%	3,121
Weld	62.71%	55,591	35.95%	31,868	0.56%	497	0.32%	287	0.46%	409	26.76%	23,723
Rio Grande	62.43%	3,448	36.32%	2,006	0.85%	47	0.16%	9	0.24%	13	26.11%	1,442
Bent	62.09%	1,338	36.43%	785	1.02%	22	0.19%	4	0.28%	6	25.66%	553
Mineral	61.87%	383	36.67%	227	0.97%	6	0.48%	3	0.00%	0	25.20%	156
Archuleta	61.67%	3,601	36.67%	2,141	0.70%	41	0.31%	18	0.65%	38	25.00%	1,460
Otero	60.48%	4,947	38.68%	3,164	0.48%	39	0.16%	13	0.21%	17	21.80%	1,783
Hinsdale	58.97%	355	39.20%	236	0.83%	5	0.50%	3	0.50%	3	19.77%	119
Park	57.22%	4,781	41.23%	3,445	0.71%	59	0.47%	39	0.37%	31	15.99%	1,336
Grand	55.99%	4,260	42.62%	3,243	0.78%	59	0.42%	32	0.20%	15	13.37%	1,017
Chaffee	55.59%	4,875	42.95%	3,766	0.88%	77	0.41%	36	0.17%	15	12.65%	1,109
Garfield	53.87%	11,123	44.69%	9,228	0.72%	148	0.47%	97	0.25%	51	9.18%	1,895
Larimer	51.82%	75,884	46.62%	68,266	0.68%	999	0.46%	672	0.42%	614	5.20%	7,618
Jefferson	51.84%	140,644	46.65%	126,558	0.64%	1,730	0.40%	1,089	0.47%	1,272	5.19%	14,086
Broomfield	51.68%	12,007	47.06%	10,935	0.61%	142	0.42%	98	0.23%	53	4.61%	1,072
Ouray	51.56%	1,402	47.00%	1,278	0.77%	21	0.37%	10	0.29%	8	4.56%	124
Arapahoe	51.46%	119,475	47.49%	110,262	0.50%	1,158	0.33%	776	0.22%	500	3.97%	9,213
Alamosa	50.71%	3,179	48.13%	3,017	0.70%	44	0.21%	13	0.26%	16	2.58%	162
Huerfano	49.97%	1,700	48.88%	1,663	0.71%	24	0.15%	5	0.29%	10	1.09%	37
Conejos	49.05%	1,864	49.84%	1,894	0.50%	19	0.08%	3	0.53%	20	-0.79%	-30
Las Animas	48.52%	3,196	50.10%	3,300	0.64%	42	0.21%	14	0.53%	35	-1.58%	-104
Adams	48.23%	65,912	50.58%	69,122	0.59%	813	0.30%	411	0.30%	414	-2.35%	-3,210
Pueblo	46.32%	31,117	52.65%	35,369	0.63%	425	0.18%	124	0.22%	147	-6.33%	-4,252
Eagle	46.10%	8,533	52.64%	9,744	0.64%	118	0.37%	69	0.25%	47	-6.54%	-1,211
La Plata	45.92%	11,704	52.60%	13,409	0.77%	196	0.41%	104	0.30%	77	-6.69%	-1,705
San Juan	44.44%	216	52.06%	253	2.06%	10	0.41%	2	1.03%	5	-7.61%	-37
Clear Creek	44.93%	2,522	53.25%	2,989	0.80%	45	0.69%	39	0.32%	18	-8.32%	-467
Routt	44.21%	5,199	54.35%	6,392	0.76%	89	0.47%	55	0.22%	26	-10.14%	-1,193
Lake	42.76%	1,261	55.04%	1,623	1.39%	41	0.58%	17	0.24%	7	-12.28%	-362
Gilpin	41.58%	1,329	56.54%	1,807	0.72%	23	0.69%	22	0.47%	15	-14.96%	-478
Saguache	41.49%	1,163	56.87%	1,594	0.71%	20	0.57%	16	0.36%	10	-15.38%	-431
Gunnison	41.32%	3,479	56.79%	4,782	1.10%	93	0.40%	34	0.38%	32	-15.48%	-1,303
Summit	39.10%	5,370	59.29%	8,144	0.87%	119	0.44%	60	0.31%	42	-20.20%	-2,774
Boulder	32.39%	51,586	66.29%	105,564	0.61%	964	0.48%	764	0.24%	379	-33.89%	-53,978
Costilla	32.18%	566	66.52%	1,170	0.85%	15	0.28%	5	0.17%	3	-34.34%	-604
Pitkin	30.08%	2,784	68.45%	6,335	0.83%	77	0.42%	39	0.22%	20	-38.37%	-3,551
Denver	29.29%	69,903	69.61%	166,135	0.57%	1,371	0.33%	781	0.20%	482	-40.32%	-96,232
San Miguel	26.85%	1,079	71.56%	2,876	0.77%	31	0.67%	27	0.15%	6	-44.71%	-1,797

Results by congressional district

Bush won four of seven congressional districts including one held by a Democratic representative.[11]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	31%	68%	Diana DeGette
2nd	41%	58%	Mark Udall
3rd	55%	44%	Scott McInnis
			John Salazar
4th	58%	41%	Marilyn Musgrave
5th	66%	33%	Joel Hefley
6th	60%	39%	Tom Tancredo
7th	48%	51%	Bob Beauprez

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has seven congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of nine electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all nine electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[12]

1. Theodore S. Halaby
2. Robert A. Martinez
3. Lilly Y. Nunez
4. Cynthia H. Murphy
5. Sylvia Morgan-Smith
6. Diane B. Gallagher
7. Vicki A. Edwards
8. Frances W. Owens
9. Booker T. Graves

Failed election reform

There was a Constitutional amendment put on the ballot in the state to alter the way the state's electors would be distributed among presidential candidates, but was rejected by the voters in 2004.

Notes

1. San Juan County actually gave a plurality to Independent Ross Perot in 1992, but gave a Republican plurality in every other presidential election between 1968 and 2000.

References

1. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
3. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2008-11-16. Retrieved 2009-06-20.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
4. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
6. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
7. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
8. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 159-161 ISBN 0786422173
9. "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com.
10. Our Campaigns; CO US President Race, November 02, 2004
11. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
12. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov.