2004 United States presidential election in Maine
The 2004 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Starting which, Maine is one of two states in the U.S. that instead of all of the state's four electors of the Electoral College to vote based upon the statewide results of the voters, two of the individual electors vote based on their congressional district because Maine has two congressional districts. The other two electors vote based upon the statewide results.
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 County Results
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| Elections in Maine |
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Maine was considered by some as a swing state, because of how polls were very close.[1] However, polls were consistently won by Kerry and neither campaign took the state too seriously. On election day, Democrat John Kerry won the popular vote with 53.57% over George W. Bush with 44.58%.
Caucuses
Campaign
Polling
Out of 15 pre-election polls, Kerry won thirteen of them. By the end of October, all polls showed Kerry over 50%. The final Real Clear Politics average showed Kerry leading 51% to 41.5% with a margin of 9.5%.[2] In three Survey USA polls taken in October, Kerry's numbers increased each time from 49% to 51% to 52%. Also, the final three polls averaged Kerry with 51% to Bush at 45%.[3]
Analysis
Maine is located in New England, an area that has become a hotbed for the Democratic Party. It was once a typical Yankee Republican state, but no Republican presidential nominee has carried Maine since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. While George W. Bush somewhat seriously contested the state in 2000 and 2004. Kerry also won in both of Maine's two Congressional districts, thus taking all four of the state's electoral votes. No candidate got over 60% in any county. Though Maine was historically a Republican stronghold, in recent years it has trended Democratic in Presidential elections; it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988. The combination of the above information and the fact that Maine is in the very liberal New England region of the U.S., it has led analysts to portray Maine as a blue state in future elections. This was also the most recent election when Maine's second congressional district did not vote for the overall winning candidate who won the overall electoral college vote until Donald Trump won it over Joe Biden while losing the presidential election in 2020, along with being the last time a Republican won the presidency without winning at least one electoral vote from the state of Maine as well.
Results
Statewide
| 2004 United States presidential election in Maine | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 396,842 | 53.57% | 4 | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 330,201 | 44.58% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 8,069 | 1.09% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 2,936 | 0.40% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 1,965 | 0.27% | 0 | |
| Others | - | 739 | 0.10% | 0 | |
| Totals | 740,752 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Voter turnout | 72.69% | — | |||
Congressional district
Kerry won both congressional districts.[8]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43% | 55% | Tom Allen |
| 2nd | 46% | 52% | Michael Michaud |
By county
| County | Kerry% | Kerry# | Bush% | Bush# | Others% | Others# | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Androscoggin | 54.40% | 30,503 | 43.73% | 24,519 | 1.86% | 1,045 | 56,067 |
| Aroostook | 51.86% | 19,569 | 46.55% | 17,564 | 1.59% | 600 | 37,733 |
| Cumberland | 58.20% | 94,846 | 40.12% | 65,384 | 1.68% | 2,732 | 162,962 |
| Franklin | 54.83% | 9,465 | 42.74% | 7,378 | 2.42% | 418 | 17,261 |
| Hancock | 54.49% | 18,048 | 43.49% | 14,405 | 2.02% | 669 | 33,122 |
| Kennebec | 53.34% | 35,616 | 44.57% | 29,761 | 2.09% | 1,395 | 66,772 |
| Knox | 54.59% | 12,690 | 43.46% | 10,103 | 1.95% | 454 | 23,247 |
| Lincoln | 51.26% | 11,351 | 46.83% | 10,370 | 1.90% | 421 | 22,142 |
| Oxford | 52.68% | 16,618 | 45.00% | 14,196 | 2.32% | 732 | 31,546 |
| Penobscot | 49.22% | 40,417 | 49.10% | 40,318 | 1.68% | 1,377 | 82,112 |
| Piscataquis | 44.36% | 4,409 | 53.31% | 5,299 | 2.33% | 232 | 9,940 |
| Sagadahoc | 52.69% | 11,107 | 45.05% | 9,497 | 2.25% | 475 | 21,079 |
| Somerset | 50.00% | 13,555 | 47.78% | 12,953 | 2.21% | 600 | 27,108 |
| Waldo | 51.77% | 11,555 | 46.19% | 10,309 | 2.03% | 454 | 22,318 |
| Washington | 48.47% | 8,391 | 49.79% | 8,619 | 1.73% | 300 | 17,310 |
| York | 53.35% | 58,702 | 45.01% | 49,526 | 1.64% | 1,805 | 110,033 |
Electors
Technically the voters of Maine cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maine is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded just 2 of the electoral votes. The other 2 electoral votes are based upon the congressional district results. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[9] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Since Kerry won both congressional districts, all 4 were pledged to Kerry/Edwards.
- Lu Bauer, elector for the 1st Congressional district.
- David Garrity, elector for the 2nd Congressional district.
- Jill Duson, at-large elector.
- Samuel Shapiro, at-large elector.
References
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/me_polls.html
- http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=23
- http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
- http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
- "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
