Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.[1]

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 20 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Date[nb 1]	Poll	NAT	LAB	GRN	NZF	MRI	ACT	UNF	CON	MNA	TOP
20 Sep 2014	2014 election result[2]	47.04	25.13	10.70	8.66	1.32	0.69	0.22	3.97	1.42[nb 2]	N/A
29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014	Roy Morgan Research[3]	43.5	22.5	17.5	7	2	0.5	0.5	5	1	N/A
27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014	Roy Morgan Research[4]	49.5	24	14.5	6.5	1	0.5	0	2	0.5	N/A
24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014	Roy Morgan Research[5]	46	27	12	7	2	1.5	0	2.5	1	N/A
8–21 Dec 2014	Herald–DigiPoll[6]	50.4	28.9	9.5	5.6	1.5	0.4	0	2.9	0.2	N/A
5–18 Jan 2015	Roy Morgan Research[7]	52	26	11	6	1.5	1	0	2	0	N/A
20–28 Jan 2015	3 News–Reid Research[8]	49.8	29.1	9.3	6.9	1.3	0.4	0	2.7	0.6	N/A
2–15 Feb 2015	Roy Morgan Research[9]	49	30	12	6	1	0	0	1.5	0	N/A
14–18 Feb 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[10]	49	31	10	6	1.5	0.3	0	1.4	0.4	N/A
2–15 Mar 2015	Roy Morgan Research[11]	46.5	31	11	6	2	1	–	1.5	–	N/A
28 Mar 2015	The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
11–15 Apr 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[12]	49	31	9	7	0.8	0.5	–	1.5	1.1	N/A
6–19 Apr 2015	Roy Morgan Research[13]	45.5	27.5	13.5	8	1.5	1	–	1	–	N/A
17–26 Apr 2015	Herald-DigiPoll[14]	51	28.7	10.8	6.1	0.8	0.8	–	1.1	–	N/A
4–17 May 2015	Roy Morgan Research[15]	54	25.5	10.5	6	1	1	0	1	–	N/A
21 May 2015	The 2015 Budget is delivered.
23–27 May 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[16]	48	31	10	7	1.4	0.1	–	2.3	–	N/A
21–27 May 2015	3 News–Reid Research[17][18]	46.4	30.4	11.1	8.1	1.1	0.5	–	1.9	0.1	N/A
30 May 2015	James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader.[19]
8–21 Jun 2015	Roy Morgan Research[20]	49.5	26	13	6.5	1	1	–	1	–	N/A
22–27 Jun 2015	The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear.[21]
29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015	Roy Morgan Research[22]	43	32	13	7	1.5	0.5	–	1.5	–	N/A
11–15 Jul 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[23]	47	32	13	7	0.4	0.4	–	–	0.5	N/A
15–22 Jul 2015	3 News–Reid Research[24][18]	47	31.1	11.4	8.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.7	0.2	N/A
3–16 Aug 2015	Roy Morgan Research[25]	50.5	27	11	8	1.5	0.5	–	–	0.5	N/A
14–24 Aug 2015	Herald-DigiPoll[26]	50.8	31	9.2	6.9	1	0.2	–	0.6	0.2	N/A
29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[27]	47	32	12	7	1.2	0.1	–	0.1	0.2	N/A
31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015	Roy Morgan Research[28]	44.5	31	15	5.5	1.5	0.5	0.5	1	0.5	N/A
8–16 Sep 2015	3 News–Reid Research[29]	47.3	33	10	7.9	0.5	0.6	–	0.5	–	N/A
31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015	Roy Morgan Research[30]	50	29	11.5	6.5	0.5	0.5	–	0.5	0.5	N/A
10–14 Oct 2015	One News–Colmar Brunton[31]	47	31	12	9	0.8	0.2	–	0.4	–	N/A
26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015	Roy Morgan Research[32]	49	29.5	12	6	2	0.5	–	0.5	0.5	N/A
9–17 Nov 2015	3 News–Reid Research[33][18]	46.7	32.3	10.2	7.5	1.3	0.8	–	0.7	0.2	N/A
23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015	Roy Morgan Research[34]	49	28.5	13	6	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	–	N/A
4–14 Dec 2015	Herald-DigiPoll[35]	51.3	31.1	8.2	5.7	2.1	0.8	0.3	–	–	N/A
4–17 Jan 2016	Roy Morgan Research[36]	47	27.5	14	6.5	3	0.5	–	1	–	N/A
4 Feb 2016	The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
1–14 Feb 2016	Roy Morgan Research[37]	48	27	14.5	6	1	0.5	–	1	0.5	N/A
13–17 Feb 2016	One News–Colmar Brunton[38]	47	32	8	10	1.1	0.3	–	0.6	0.3	N/A
29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016	Roy Morgan Research[39]	46	28	14	9	1	1	–	0.5	0.5	N/A
2–6 Apr 2016	One News–Colmar Brunton[40]	50	28	10	9	1.1	0.7	–	0.3	–	N/A
4–17 Apr 2016	Roy Morgan Research[41]	42.5	26	14.5	12.5	1.5	1.5	–	1	–	N/A
2–15 May 2016	Roy Morgan Research[42]	45.5	29.5	12	9.5	1	1	0	0.5	–	N/A
12–22 May 2016	Newshub Reid Research[43][18]	47	31.3	11.1	7.8	1	0.4	–	0.6	0.1	N/A
26 May 2016	The 2016 Budget is delivered.
31 May 2016	The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding.[44]
28 May – 2 Jun 2016	One News–Colmar Brunton[45]	48	29	12	9	0.7	0.3	–	0.7	0.1	N/A
12 Jun 2016	Roy Morgan Research[46]	43.5	28	14.5	9	2	0.5	–	1	1	N/A
17 Jul 2016	Roy Morgan Research[47]	53	25.5	11.5	7	0.5	1	–	0.5	0.5	N/A
22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016	Newshub Reid Research[48][18]	45.1	32.7	11.5	8.1	1.3	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.4	N/A
8–21 Aug 2016	Roy Morgan Research[49]	46	25.5	14.5	9.5	1.5	1	–	1	0.5	N/A
3–7 Sep 2016	One News–Colmar Brunton[50]	48	26	13	11	2	–	–	0.3	–	N/A
5–18 Sep 2016	Roy Morgan Research[51]	41.5	33.5	12	8.5	2	1	–	0.5	–	N/A
10–23 Oct 2016	Roy Morgan Research[52]	48	26.5	11.5	10	1.5	0.5	–	–	–	N/A
14 Nov 2016	A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikoura.
Nov 2016	The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan.
12–23 Nov 2016	One News–Colmar Brunton[53]	50	28	11	10	1	–	–	0.2	–	–
24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016	Roy Morgan Research[54]	49.5	23.0	14.5	8.0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	–
3 Dec 2016	Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election.
5 Dec 2016	John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December.
28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016	Roy Morgan Research[55]	45.0	28.5	14.5	7.5	1.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	–
12 Dec 2016	Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party. Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader.
3–16 Jan 2017	Roy Morgan Research[56]	46.0	27.0	12.5	9.0	2.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	–
1 Feb 2017	Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.
30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017	Roy Morgan Research[57]	48.0	26.0	13.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	–
11–15 Feb 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[58]	46	30	11	11	0.7	0.8	0.3[59]	0.2	0.8	0.0[59]
25 Feb 2017	Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election.
1 Mar 2017	Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus.
6 Mar 2017	The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.[60]
27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017	Roy Morgan Research[61]	43.5	29.5	14.5	7.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	–
10–19 Mar 2017	Newshub Reid Research[62][63]	47.1	30.8	11.2	7.6	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.8
18–22 Mar 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[64][65]	46	30	11	8	4	0.4	–	0.3	0.2	0.4
3–16 Apr 2017	Roy Morgan Research[66]	43.0	29.5	13.0	10.5	1.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	–
1–14 May 2017	Roy Morgan Research[67]	43.0	28.5	14.0	10.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	–
25 May 2017	The 2017 budget is delivered.
19–24 May 2017	Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68]	43.75	23.75	16.25	10.00	1.25	1.25	0.00	1.25	–	2.50
21–31 May 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[69][70]	49	30	9	9	0.6	0.5	–	0.1	–	1.4
29 May – 11 Jun 2017	Roy Morgan Research[71]	46.5	25.5	14.0	9.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	–
12 Jun 2017	Newshub Reid Research[72][63]	47.4	26.4	12.5	9.4	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.8	0.3	0.8
21 Jun 2017	National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent.[73] Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording.[74]
1–5 Jul 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[75]	47	27	11	11	1.8	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.3	1.1
26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017	Roy Morgan Research[76]	43	30.5	13.5	8.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	–
16 Jul 2017	Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s.[77]
22–27 Jul 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[78][79]	47	24	15	11	0.6	0.3	0.1	–	–	1.5
20–28 Jul 2017	Newshub Reid Research[80]	45.2	24.1	13	13	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2[81]	2
1 Aug 2017	Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.
1–2 Aug 2017	Listener: Bauer Media Insights[82]	45.42	26.79	13.98	9.32	0.00	1.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.33
3 Aug 2017	Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993.[83] The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.[84]
2–8 Aug 2017	Newshub Reid Research[85]	44.4	33.1	8.3	9.2	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.3	2
9 Aug 2017	Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud.[86]
31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017	Roy Morgan Research[87]	42.5	32.5	9.0	11.5	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
12–16 Aug 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[88][89]	44	37	4.3	10	1.7	0.4	0.0	–	–	2.1
21 Aug 2017	United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics.[90] Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later.[91]
27 Aug 2017	Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.[92][93]
22–30 Aug 2017	Newshub Reid Research[94][81]	43.3	39.4	6.1	6.6	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.0	1.9
26–30 Aug 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[95][96]	41	43	5	8	0.5	0.3	–	–	–	0.9
1–5 Sep 2017	Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97]	38.9	41.1	6.7	8.9	1.1	1.1	–	–	–	2.2
2–6 Sep 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[98][99]	39	43	5	9	2.0	0.1	–	–	–	1.9
4–6 Sep 2017	Newsroom-SSI[100]	30	45	6	11	2	1	–	–	–	2
28 Aug – 10 Sep 2017	Roy Morgan Research[101]	40	39.5	9	6	2	0.5	0	0.5	–	2
6–11 Sep 2017	Newshub Reid Research[102][81]	47.3	37.8	4.9	6.0	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.1	1.6
11 Sep 2017	Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014).[103]
9–13 Sep 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[104][105]	40	44	7	6	0.9	0.6	–	–	–	1.6
13–20 Sep 2017	Newshub Reid Research[106][18][107]	45.8	37.3	7.1	7.1	0.4	0.6	–	0.6	0.1	0.9
15–19 Sep 2017	One News–Colmar Brunton[108][109]	46	37	8	4.9	0.5	0.3	–	–	–	2.3
23 Sep 2017	Election day
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result[110]	44.4	36.9	6.3	7.2	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.4
Date[nb 1]	Poll	NAT	LAB	GRN	NZF	MRI	ACT	UNF	CON	MNA	TOP

Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1]	Poll	NAT	LAB	GRN	NZF	MRI	ACT	CON	MNA	TOP
20 Sep 2014	2014 election result[2]	47.04	25.13	10.70	8.66	1.32	0.69	3.97	1.40[nb 2]	N/A
Oct 2014	UMR Research[111]	50	24	13	7.8	1.5	0.6	3.0	0.8	N/A
Nov 2014	UMR Research[111]	47	25	13	7.6	2.7	0.4	3.0	0.8	N/A
Dec 2014	UMR Research[111]	45	30	14	6.1	0.6	0.2	3.3	0.5	N/A
Jan 2015	UMR Research[112]	48	31	12	5.8	1.0	0.0	1.6	0.0	N/A
Feb 2015	UMR Research[112]	46	32	12	5.0	1.5	0.7	2.7	0.3	N/A
Mar 2015	UMR Research[112]	46	31	11	6.9	1.6	0.4	3.1	0.4	N/A
Apr 2015	UMR Research[112]	43	32	13	7.6	1.8	1.1	1.2	0.3	N/A
May 2015	UMR Research[112]	46	31	10	6.8	1.3	1.1	3.0	0.4	N/A
Jun 2015	UMR Research[112]	45	32	13	7.5	1.2	0.5	0.9	0.2	N/A
Jul 2015	UMR Research[112]	41	35	14	6.7	1.2	0.3	3.0	0.5	N/A
Aug 2015	UMR Research[112]	42	31	14	8.5	1.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	N/A
Sep 2015	UMR Research[112]	45	31	13	8.7	0.1	0.8	1.0	0.4	N/A
Oct 2015	UMR Research[112]	48	31	10	7.9	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.2	N/A
Nov 2015	UMR Research[112]	44	31	13	8.0	1.5	0.5	1.2	0.1	N/A
Dec 2015	UMR Research[112]	45	35	10	8.3	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.2	N/A
31 Aug – 5 Sep 2016	UMR Research[113]	40	31	14	11	–	–	–	–	N/A
Early Jan 2017	UMR Research[114]	46	30	11	9	–	–	–	–	–
Early Feb 2017	UMR Research[114]	44	30	12	11	–	–	–	–	–
Late Feb 2017	UMR Research[114]	48	28	12	8	–	–	–	–	–
Early Mar 2017	UMR Research[114]	42	30	14	10	–	–	–	–	–
Late Mar 2017	UMR Research[114]	44	30	12	10	–	–	–	–	–
Early Apr 2017	UMR Research[114]	43	28	13	12	–	–	–	–	–
Late Apr 2017	UMR Research[114]	43	28	12	12	–	–	–	–	–
Early May 2017	UMR Research[114]	42	34	13	9	–	–	–	–	–
Late May 2017	UMR Research[114]	44	30	13	9	–	–	–	–	–
Early Jun 2017	UMR Research[114]	42	32	13	9	–	–	–	–	–
Late Jun 2017	UMR Research[114]	43	29	12	11	–	–	–	–	–
5–10 Jul 2017	UMR Research[114]	42	26	13	14	–	–	–	–	–
Late Jul 2017	UMR Research[115][116]	42	23	15	16	–	–	–	–	–
1–8 Aug 2017	UMR Research[117][118]	43	36	8	8	–	–	–	–	3
11–16 Aug 2017	UMR Research[119][120]	40	37	8	9	–	–	–	–	3.5
20 Sep 2017	Curia[121]	43	39	6	6	–	–	–	–	–

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls from 2015 to September 2017. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll	Date[nb 1]	Bill English	Jacinda Ardern	Winston Peters	James Shaw	Hone Harawira	Gareth Morgan	Peter Dunne	Metiria Turei	Andrew Little	John Key
Herald-DigiPoll[6]	8–21 Dec 2014	–	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	13.6	65
3 News-Reid Research[8][122]	20–28 Jan 2015	0.3	–	7.6	–	–	–	–	–	9.8	44.0
One News-Colmar Brunton[10]	14–18 Feb 2015	0.6	0.7	7.0	–	0.4	–	–	1.1	12.0	41.0
Herald-DigiPoll[14]	17–26 Apr 2015	–	–	12	–	–	–	–	–	13.9	64.6
3 News Reid Research[17][122]	21–27 May 2015	0.6	–	11.2	–	–	–	–	–	11.6	39.4
3 News Reid Research[24][122]	15–22 Jul 2015	0.2	–	11.3	0.2	–	–	–	–	10.2	38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[26]	14–24 Aug 2015	–	3.9	11.6	0.6	–	–	–	0.9	13.3	63.7
3 News Reid Research[29][122]	8–16 Sep 2015	0.3	3.5	8.6	0.2	–	–	0.1	–	10.8	39.5
3 News Reid Research[33][122]	9–17 Nov 2015	0.7	4.2	9.3	–	–	–	0.1	–	10.4	38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[35]	4–14 Dec 2015	–	2.8	7.9	–	–	–	–	–	16.2	65.2
One News Colmar Brunton[53]	2–6 Apr 2016	0.9	2	10	0.4	–	–	–	–	7	39
Newshub Reid Research[43][18][81]	12–22 May 2016	0.2	2.6	12.1	0.5	–	–	–	–	8.9	36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53]	28 May – 2 Jun 2016	0.4	1	12	0.4	–	–	–	–	7	39
Newshub Reid Research[48][18][81]	22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016	0.3	2.9	10.9	0.9	–	0.3	–	1	10.5	36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53]	3–7 Sep 2016	–	1	11	0.1	–	–	–	–	10	38
One News Colmar Brunton[53][123]	12–23 Nov 2016	–	1	8	0.3	–	0.1	0.3	1	8	36
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[58][123]	11–15 Feb 2017	31	4	8	0.3	–	0.1	–	2	7	2
Newshub Reid Research[62][81]	10–19 Mar 2017	25	10.5	8.9	–	–	0.1	–	1	8.3	5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[65][123]	18–22 Mar 2017	26	9	9	0.5	0.3	–	0.2	0.4	7	2
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68]	19–24 May 2017	39	16	9	2	–	2	–	3	13	–
One News Colmar Brunton[69][123]	21–31 May 2017	29	6	7	0.4	–	0.2	0.1	0.7	8	2
Newshub Reid Research[72][81][122]	2–12 Jun 2017	26.2	6.6	9.7	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.3	1.4	7	5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[75][123]	1–5 Jul 2017	26	6	11	0.5	0.5	0.7	–	0.2	5	1
One News Colmar Brunton[78][123]	22–27 Jul 2017	28	6	10	0.2	–	0.3	0.2	1	6	1
Newshub Reid Research[80][81]	20–28 Jul 2017	25.8	8.7	11.9	0.7	0.2	0.8	0.4	1.6	7.1	6
1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party.
Newshub Reid Research[85][81]	2–8 Aug 2017	27.7	26.3	10	0.2	0.5	0.6	–	0.8	0.9	4.9
9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[88][124]	12–16 Aug 2017	30	30	7	0.3	0.4	0.7	–	–	–	0.5
21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light.[125][90]
Newshub Reid Research[94][81]	22–30 Aug 2017	30.1	29.9	6.9	0.5	0.1	0.6	0	0.8	0.3	4.6
One News Colmar Brunton[95][96]	26–30 Aug 2017	33	34	4	0.4	–	0.4	–	0.8	–	–
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97]	1–5 Sep 2017	36	46	6	1	–	1	–	–	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton[98][99]	2–6 Sep 2017	31	35	5	1	0.1	0.5	–	–	0.1	0.7
Newsroom: SSI[100]	4–6 Sep 2017	31	45	11	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Newshub Reid Research[126][81]	6–11 Sep 2017	33.1	31.7	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.8	0.2	0.8	0.1	4.1
One News Colmar Brunton[104][105]	9–13 Sep 2017	32	34	5	0.3	–	0.3	–	0.2	–	0.6
Newshub Reid Research[106][122]	13–20 Sep 2017	34.7	29.6	7.1	0.6	–	0.5	0.1	0.5	0.4	3.6
One News Colmar Brunton[108][109]	15–19 Sep 2017	37	31	6	0.3	0.3	0.2	–	0.1	–	0.7
Poll	Date[nb 1]	Bill English	Jacinda Ardern	Winston Peters	James Shaw	Hone Harawira	Gareth Morgan	Peter Dunne	Metiria Turei	Andrew Little	John Key

Electorate polling

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	National	Labour	Green	NZ First	TOP	United Future	Māori	ACT
2014 election result	20 September 2014	50.23	23.42	15.01	4.76	N/A*	0.73	0.57	0.67
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127]	5 – 9 Aug 2017	46	35	12	4	1.8	0.5	0.4	0.3

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Greg O'Connor	United Future Peter Dunne	National Brett Hudson	Green Tane Woodley	TOP Jessica Hammond Doube	ACT Andie Moore	Labour Ginny Andersen	ACT Sean Fitzpatrick
2014 election result	20 September 2014	N/A	36.23	16.34	7.38	N/A*	N/A	34.34	0.55
14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne.[128]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127]	5 – 9 August 2017	48	34	14	—	2	1	N/A	N/A
21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics.[90] 23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate[129] and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate.[130]

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	Māori	NZ First	National	Green
2014 election result	20 September 2014	38.37	21.79	12.54	5.00	7.98
Community Engagement Ltd[131]	19 – 22 July 2017	19.4	18.9	25.7	13.4	12.1
Maori TV-Reid Research[132]	July – 3 September 2017	49.6	26.5	10.2	5.6	4.8

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Māori Te Ururoa Flavell	Labour Tamati Coffey	Labour Rawiri Waititi	Mana Annette Sykes
2014 election result	20 September 2014	43.42	N/A	26.06	24.48
26 Aug 2016 – Rawiri Waititi cuts allegiances with Labour after being inspired by the Māori King to encourage Mana and Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together.[133] 07 Oct 2016 – Tamati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote.[134] 20 Feb 2017 – Mana begin a memorandum of understanding with the Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour.[135]
Community Engagement Ltd[131]	19 – 22 July 2017	31.6	30.1	N/A	N/A
Maori TV-Reid Research[132]	July – 3 September 2017	60.1	39.9	N/A	N/A

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	Māori	NZ First	National	Green	Mana	TOP
2014 election result	20 September 2014	41.22	14.05	12.98	7.93	11.17	10.22[nb 2]	N/A*
Māori TV, Reid Research Poll[136]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	46.5	17.5	13.8	9.5	9.0	1.8	1.5

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	National	Labour	NZ First	Green	Māori	ACT	TOP
2014 election result	20 September 2014	50.08	17.80	13.36	9.77	0.53	0.55	N/A*
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138]	19 – 22 Aug 2017	41	37	16	3.6	1.3	1.0	0.4

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	National Shane Reti	NZ First Shane Jones	Labour Tony Savage	Green Ash Holwell	DFSC Chris Leitch	ACT Robin Grieve	Labour Kelly Ellis	NZ First Pita Paraone	Green Paul Doherty
2014 election result	20 September 2014	55.07	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.68	0.78	19.01	8.06	8.66
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138]	19 – 22 Aug 2017	42	24	22	10	1.7	0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	Māori	Mana	National	NZ First	Green	ACT	TOP
2014 election result	20 September 2014	47.38	12.19	N/A	5.37	11.25	10.28	0.11	N/A
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	50.4	21.1	1.3	5.9	12	7.5	0.3	1.6

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Meka Whaitiri	Māori Marama Fox	Green Elizabeth Kerekere
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	55	39	6

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	Māori	National	Green	NZ First	Mana	TOP
2014 election result	20 September 2014	42.23	17.64	7.11	11.93	11.79	6.82	N/A
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	41.8	24	11.2	9.1	11	1.3	1.3

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Adrian Rurawhe	Māori Howie Tamati	Green Jack McDonald
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	39	52	9.1

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	National	Māori	Green	NZ First	ACT	TOP
2014 election result	20 September 2014	36.7	14.92	11.19	16.41	12.82	0.17	N/A
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	47.6	14.1	11.7	9.3	14.4	0.3	2.4

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Rino Tirikatene	Māori Mei Reedy-Taare	Green Metiria Turei
Māori TV Reid Research[139]	11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017	57.1	22.1	20.7

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	NZ First	Māori
2014 election result	20 September 2014	46.50	13.37	11.97
Māori TV-Reid Research[140]	11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017	52.6	15.1	14.5

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Nanaia Mahuta	Māori Rahui Papa	Mana Susan Cullen
2014 election result	20 September 2014	59.54	21.96	15.22
Māori TV-Reid Research[140]	11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017	78	22	N/A

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	NZ First	Māori	Green	National
2014 election result	20 September 2014	40.45	13.98	12.72	11.69	7.55
Māori TV-Reid Research[141]	12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017	47.0	12.6	14.5	11.3	12.6

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Peeni Henare	Māori Shane Taurima	Green Marama Davidson	Māori Rangi McLean
2014 election result	20 September 2014	37.48	N/A	15.60	30.21
Māori TV-Reid Research[141]	12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017	46.0	32.6	21.4	N/A

Party vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour	NZ First	Māori	Green	National	Mana
2014 election result	20 September 2014	38.8	8.1	9.1	8.7	10.2	16.3
Māori TV-Reid Research[142]	12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017	49.7	14.7	9.7	10.3	7.9	6.1

Candidate vote

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Kelvin Davis	Mana Hone Harawira	Green Godfrey Rudoplh
2014 election result	20 September 2014	43.90	40.53	N/A
Māori TV-Reid Research[142]	12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017	67.4	30.3	2.3

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[143] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party		Newshub[144] 13–20 Sep 2017 poll [final]	1 News[145] 15–19 Sep 2017 poll [final]	Roy Morgan[146] 28 Aug–10 Sep 2017 poll [final]	Radio NZ[147] as of 21 Sep 2017 [final]	NZ Herald[148] as of 22 Sep 2017 [final]	Stuff[149] as of 22 Sep 2017 [final]	Official result
	National	56	58	50	55	56 (±2)	54	56
	Labour	45	46	49	46	47 (±3)	46	46
	NZ First	9	6	7	8	9 (±2)	7	9
	Green	9	9	11	9	7 (±2)	10	8
	ACT	1	1*	1	1	1	1	1
	Māori	2**	1	2	1	1	1	0
Seats in Parliament		122	121	120	120	120[nb 3]	120[nb 4]	120
Overall result (majority)		National−NZ First (65)	National−NZ First (64)	Labour−Green−Māori (62)	National–NZ First (63)	National–NZ First (65)	National–NZ First (61)	National–NZ First (65)
		Labour−Green−NZ First (63)	Labour−Green−NZ First (61)		Labour−Green−NZ First (63)	Labour−Green–NZ First (62)	Labour−Green–NZ First (63)	Labour−Green–NZ First (63)

* indicates an overhang seat

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
3. The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
4. Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.[150][151]

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

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