Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.[1]

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[2] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1 News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote

Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625).

Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and that are routinely included by polling companies. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625).

Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	TOP	MRI	NCP	ANZ	Lead
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result	N/A	25.6	50.0	2.6	7.9	7.6	1.5	1.2	1.5	1.0	24.4
8–15 Oct 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	31.1	45.8	3.5	6.3	7.4	1.3	0.6	1.7	0.3	14.7
10–14 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1005	31	46	2.6	8	8	1.1	0.6	1.5	0.9	15
3–7 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	32	47	2.4	6	8	1.8	0.2	1.3	0.9	15
3 Oct 2020	Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission estimates 60% of voters will cast their vote before election day.[3]
Sep 2020	Roy Morgan Research	911	28.5	47.5	2.5	9.5	7.0	1.5	0.5	–	–	19
23–27 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1005	33	47	1.4	7	8	1.0	0.8	1.4	0.6	14
16–23 Sep 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	29.6	50.1	1.9	6.5	6.3	0.9	1.5	2.1	–	20.5
17–21 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	31	48	2.4	6	7	1.1	0.9	1.6	0.8	17
Aug 2020	Roy Morgan Research	897	28.5	48.0	2.5	11.5	6.0	1.0	0.5	–	–	19.5
17 Aug 2020	Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.[1]
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research	899	26.5	53.5	1.5	8	6.5	1.5	0.5	–	N/A	27
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1004	32	53	2	5	4.8	0.1	1	1.2	N/A	21
16–24 Jul 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	25.1	60.9	2.0	5.7	3.3	0.4	0.4	0.9	N/A	35.8
14 Jul 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research	879	27	54.5	1.5	9	5	1.5	1	–	N/A	27.5
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	38	50	1.8	6	3.1	0.5	0.9	0.7	N/A	12
27 Apr – 24 May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	894	26.5	56.5	2.5	7	3.5	1	1.5	–	N/A	30
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.
16–20 May 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1003	29	59	2.9	4.7	2.2	0.5	1.2	0.4	N/A	30
8–16 May 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	30.6	56.5	2.7	5.5	1.8	0.1	0.9	1.0	N/A	25.9
14 May 2020	2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	30.5	55	2.5	7	2.5	–	–	–	N/A	24.5
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	42.5	3	11.5	3.5	–	–	–	N/A	5.5
25 March 2020	Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	40.5	5	10.5	3.5	–	–	–	N/A	3.5
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1004	46	41	3.3	5	1.7	0.1	1.1	0.8	N/A	5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	43.3	42.5	3.6	5.6	1.8	0.6	0.9	0.7	N/A	0.8
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	40	40	2.5	10.5	3	–	–	–	N/A	Tie
28 Jan 2020	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	46	39	4.3	7	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.8	N/A	7
7–11 Nov 2019	Stuff–YouGov	1005	38	41	8	8	2	1	1	–	N/A	3
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	47	40	4.2	7	0.9	0.5	0.8	0.4	N/A	7
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	43.9	41.6	4.0	6.3	1.4	1.1	0.7	1	N/A	2.3
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1003	45	43	3.3	6	1	0.5	1.1	0.8	N/A	2
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1002	44	42	5	6	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.6	N/A	2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	37.4	50.8	2.8	6.2	0.8	0.1	0.5	1	N/A	13.4
30 May 2019	The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1009	40	48	4.3	6	0.7	–	0.5	0.4	N/A	8
15–23 Mar 2019	Business NZ–Reid Research	1000	41.3	49.6	2.3	3.9	–	–	–	–	N/A	8.3
15 Mar 2019	Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	42	45	3	6	0.9	0.6	1.4	0.2	N/A	3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	41.6	47.5	2.9	5.1	0.4	0.5	0.8	1.1	N/A	5.9
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	46	43	4	5	0.6	0.3	0.9	–	N/A	3
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	43	45	5	7	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.3	N/A	2
2 Aug 2018	Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	45	42	5	6	1.1	0.4	0.9	0.1	N/A	3
21 Jun 2018	Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1000[4]	45.1	42.6	2.4	5.7	0.2	1.6	0.9	1.1	N/A	2.5
19–23 May 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	45	43	4.2	5	0.7	0.5	0.9	0.2	N/A	2
17 May 2018	The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	44	43	5	6	0.3	0.4	1.2	0.2	N/A	1
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2]	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	43	48	2.6	5	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.1	N/A	5
13 Feb 2018	Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[7]
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	44.5	42.3	3.8	6	0.2	1.4	0.8	0.3	N/A	2.2
2–28 Jan 2018	Roy Morgan Research	1000	39	42.5	6	9	0.5	1.5	1	–	N/A	3.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research	–	40.5	37	8	10	0.5	–	–	–	N/A	3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	46	39	5	7	0.1	1.2	0.9	–	N/A	7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	40.5	39.5	5	10	0.5	2	1.5	–	N/A	1
26 Oct 2017	Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[8]
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	46	31	6.5	11	0.5	2	1.5	–	N/A	15
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result[9]	N/A	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	2.4	1.2	0.2	N/A	7.6
Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	TOP	MRI	NCP	ANZ	Lead

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	Lead
13 Oct 2020	UMR Research	29	50	2.7	6	7	21
25 Aug – 2 Sep 2020	UMR Research	29	53	3.9	3.2	6.2	24
12 Aug 2020	UMR Research	28	52	5.1	5.4	5.9	24
28 Jul 2020	Curia	36	47	3	6	3	11
30 Jun 2020	Curia	34	55	–	–	–	21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	30	54	5	4	–	24
21–27 April 2020	UMR Research	29	55	6	5	3	26
14 April 2020	Curia	31	49	6	9	5	18
8 April 2020	UMR Research	35	49	5	5	2	14
17 Feb 2020	UMR Research	38	42	6	9	3	4
2 Feb 2020	Curia	39	41	7	7	2	2
23 Jul 2019	UMR Research	38	42	–	9	–	4
9 Nov 2018	UMR Research	37	46	–	–	–	9
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result[9]	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	7.5

Preferred Prime Minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Jacinda Ardern	Judith Collins	Winston Peters	James Shaw	Marama Davidson	David Seymour	Leighton Baker	Billy Te Kahika	Todd Muller	Simon Bridges	Bill English	Lead
8–15 Oct 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	52.6	18.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	34.2
10–14 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,005	55	20	1	0.4	0.1	3	0.4	0.4	–	0.4	–	35
3–7 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	50	23	1	0.1	0.5	2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	27
23–27 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,005	54	23	1	0.1	0.2	2	0.1	0.4	–	0.1	0.1	31
16–23 Sep 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	53.2	17.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	35.5
17–21 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	54	18	2	0.1	–	2	0.3	0.2	–	0.1	0.3	36
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,004	54	20	1	0.1	0.1	1	0.1	0.7	0.2	–	–	34
16–24 Jul 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	62	14.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	47.4
14 Jul 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	54	2	2	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.1	–	13	0.4	0.2	41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	–	65	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	13	–	–	52
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,003	63	3	1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	–	0.2	5	0.1	58
8–16 May 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	59.5	3.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.5	–	51
21–27 Apr 2020	UMR Research	–	65	7	3	–	–	–	–	–	–	7	–	58
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,004	42	3	3	0.1	0.5	0.8	–	–	–	11	0.2	31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	38.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	10.6	–	28.1
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	36	4	3	0.3	–	0.6	–	–	–	10	–	26
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	38	5	4	0.3	0.3	0.4	–	–	0.2	9	0.1	29
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	38.4	5.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	6.7	–	31.7
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,003	41	6	2	–	0.1	0.4	–	–	0.1	6	0.2	35
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,002	45	6	5	0.1	–	0.5	–	–	–	5	0.1	39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	49	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.2	–	41.9
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	51	5	3	0.2	–	0.2	–	–	–	5	0.3	46
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	44	6	3	0.2	–	0.1	–	–	–	6	0.4	38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	41.8	6.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	5.0	–	35.6
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	39	6	4	0.1	–	0.1	–	–	–	7	0.4	32
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	42	5	4	0.1	0.1	–	–	–	–	7	1	35
2 Aug 2018	Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	40	2	5	0.3	0.3	0.2	–	–	–	10	0.9	30
21 Jun 2018	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000[10]	40.2	3.7	4.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	9	4.2	31.2
19–23 May 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	2	4	0.2	–	0.1	–	–	–	12	0.9	29
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	2	5	–	–	0.3	–	–	–	10	2	27
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2]	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	0.4	4	0.4	–	0.1	–	–	–	1	20	21
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000[4]	37.9	0.2	5.7	0.1	–	–	–	–	–	0.5	25.7	12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	0.7	5	0.4	–	–	–	–	–	0.3	28	9

Government approval rating

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
Sep 2020	Roy Morgan Research	911	70.5	19.5	10	51
Aug 2020	Roy Morgan Research	897	71	19	10	52
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research	899	71.5	19	9.5	52.5
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research	879	72	18.5	9.5	53.5
May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	76	17.5	6.5	58.5
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	77	14	9	63
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	60.5	25.5	14	35
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	59	27	14	32
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	66.5	20	12.5	46.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research		68	18	14	50
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	51	26	23	25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	66.5	20	13.5	46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017	Horizon Research	1,068	49	24	28	21
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	58.5	27.5	14	31

Electorate polling

Auckland Central

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT		GRN		NZF		TOP		ACT		SNZ	TEA	IND
		Helen White	Emma Mellow	Nikki Kaye	Chlöe Swarbrick	Denise Roche	Jenny Marcroft	Frank Edwards	Tuariki Delamere	Mika Haka	Felix Poole	Brooke van Velden	Vernon Tava	Dominic Hoffman Dervan	Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020	Q+A Colmar Brunton	35	30	N/A	26	N/A	1	N/A	—	N/A	4	N/A	2	1	0.4
September 2020	Newshub Nation–Reid Research	42.3	26.6	N/A	24.2	N/A	2.2	N/A	1.0	N/A	0.9	N/A	—	—	—
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	39.82	N/A	45.25	N/A	9.72	N/A	1.98	N/A	2.33	N/A	0.52	N/A	N/A	N/A

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	NZF	TOP	SNZ	VNZ	SCP
24–30 Sep 2020	Q+A Colmar Brunton	47	28	13	6	1.7	2.2	0.6	0.4	0.3
September 2020	Newshub Nation–Reid Research	56.2	23.1	12.1	3.9	1.6	1.4	—	—	—
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	37.71	39.15	13.87	1.05	3.87	3.14	N/A	N/A	0.01

East Coast

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT		GRN
		Kiri Allan	Tania Tapsell	Anne Tolley	Meredith Akuhata-Brown	Gareth Hughes
22–24 Sep 2020	Community Engagement	40.5	35	N/A	4.9	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	33.51	N/A	46.18	N/A	7.13

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	GRN	NZF
22–24 Sep 2020	Community Engagement	50	31	4.4	4.2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	36.62	44.03	4.58	9.89

Northland

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF		GRN		NCP	ACT
		Matt King	Willow-Jean Prime	Shane Jones	Winston Peters	Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen	Peter Hughes	Mel Taylor	Mark Cameron	Craig Nelson
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020	Q+A–Colmar Brunton	46	31	15	N/A	3	N/A	2	1	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	38.30	21.61	N/A	34.81	N/A	4.51	0.46	N/A	0.30

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	ACT	NZF	GRN	TOP
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020	Q+A–Colmar Brunton	41	38	8	7	4.7	0.4
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	30.12	46.35	0.47	13.17	6.05	1.98

Hauraki-Waikato

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI
		Nanaia Mahuta	Donna Pokere-Phillips	Rahui Papa
29–30 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	61	14	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	68.85	N/A	27.36

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT
29–30 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	61	8	5	3	3	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	61.5	11.3	6.87	5.14	8.34	0.09

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN	ANZ	OUT
		Meka Whaitiri	Heather Te Au-Skipworth	Marama Fox	Elizabeth Kerekere	Waitangi Kupenga	Kelly Thurston
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	46	19	N/A	3	2	0
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	53.68	N/A	35.27	8.41	N/A	N/A

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NZF	GRN	NAT	ACT
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	62	10	3	3	2	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	64.7	13	7.16	4.86	4.8	0.13

Tāmaki Makaurau

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN
		Peeni Henare	John Tamihere	Shane Taurima	Marama Davidson
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	35	29	N/A	14
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	47.51	N/A	28.25	21.58

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	GRN	NZF	NAT	ACT
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	57	9	7	5	3	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	59.34	10.96	7.24	9.53	6.55	0.16

Te Tai Hauāuru

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI
		Adrian Rurawhe	Debbie Ngarewa-Packer	Howie Tamati
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	38	20	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	43.86	N/A	39.21

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	TOP
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	51	10	4	4	3	2	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	58.47	14.96	6.54	6.53	7.26	0.08	2.85

Te Tai Tokerau

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	ANZ
		Kelvin Davis	Mariameno Kapa-Kingi	Billy Te Kahika
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	36	18	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	52.60	N/A	N/A

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NZF	NAT	MRI	GRN	ACT
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	58	6	4	7	7	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	57.94	11.12	7.42	6.48	6.35	0.16

Te Tai Tonga

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN
		Rino Tirikatene	Tākuta Ferris	Mei Reedy-Taare	Ariana Paretutanganui-Tamati	Metiria Turei
4–5 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	37	11	N/A	2	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	44.44	N/A	20.97	N/A	24.5

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	MRI	GRN	NZF	ACT
4–5 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	53	16	5	5	2	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	55.8	12.47	8.4	8.12	7.8	0.2

Waiariki

Electorate vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		VNZ
		Tamati Coffey	Rawiri Waititi	Te Ururoa Flavell	Hannah Tamaki
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	38	26	N/A	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	53.74	N/A	46.26	N/A

Party vote

Date[nb 1]	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	GRN	NAT	NZF	ACT
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	47	19	7	3	2	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	58.95	19.71	3.86	4.75	7.42	0.08

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[11] and that Botany will be returned to National,[12][13] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[14]

Source	Seats in Parliament[lower-roman 1]							Likely government formation(s)
	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	MRI	Total
Roy Morgan[15] Sep 2020 poll	38	61	0	12	9	0	120	Labour (61)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[16] 10–14 Oct 2020 poll	40	59	0	11	10	0	120	Labour–Green (70)
Newshub–Reid Research[17] 8–15 Oct 2020 poll	41	61	0	8	10	0	120	Labour (61)
2020 result	33	65	0	10	10	2	120	Labour (65)

1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

• Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election
• 2017 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References

1. Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
2. Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
3. "Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today". Radio NZ. Retrieved 2 October 2020 – via 1 News.
4. "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
5. "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
6. "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
7. "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
8. Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
9. "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
10. https://web.archive.org/web/20190309145318/http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html
11. Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
12. "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
13. Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
14. Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
15. "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
16. Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
17. O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.