Interprovincial migration in Canada

Interprovincial migration in Canada is the movement by people from one Canadian province or territory to another with the intention of settling, permanently or temporarily, in the new province or territory; it is more-or-less stable over time.[1] In fiscal year 2019–20, 374,407 Canadians migrated province, representing 0.988% of the population.[2]

Net cumulative interprovincial migration for each province and territory (1997–2017), as a share of population. (Reds indicate loss, greens gain)

The Interprovincial migration levels of each province can be constructed as a way to measure the success of each jurisdiction. The main measurement used is net interprovincial migration, which is simply the difference between residents moving out of a province (out-migration) and the number of residents from other provinces moving into that province (in-migration). Since 1971, the provinces which received the most net cumulative interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Alberta and British Columbia, while the provinces which had the largest net loss of interprovincial migrants (adjusted for population) were Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.[3]

History

Pamphlet advertising for immigration to Western Canada, c. 1910

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, Canadians who left their home province to settle elsewhere usually went to the United States rather than to other Canadian provinces. In fact, from the early years of confederation to the 1930s, Quebec and the maritimes provinces experienced a period of mass-emigration to the United States. From 1860 to 1920, half a million people left the maritimes,[4] and between 1840 and 1930, about 900,000 French Canadians left Quebec in order to immigrate to the United States, mainly in New England.[5][6]

However, some French Canadians and Maritimers were also drawn to Ontario in the 19th century and early 20th century, when the development of mining and forestry resources in the northeastern and eastern regions of the province attracted a large workforce. This migration significantly increased the proportion of francophones in Ontario.[7] The Francophone population of Ontario continues to be concentrated mainly in the northeastern and eastern parts of the province, close to the border with Quebec, although smaller pockets of Francophone settlement exist throughout the province.

After Manitoba joined Confederation in 1870, the new provincial government was controlled by Anglo Canadians. The agreement for the establishment of the Province had included guarantees that the Métis would receive grants of land and that their existing unofficial landholdings would be recognized. These guarantees were largely ignored. New anglophone migrants coming from Ontario were instead given most of the land. Facing this discrimination, the Métis moved in large numbers to what would become Saskatchewan and Alberta.[8]

Starting in 1871, the Canadian government entered multiple treaties with indigenous nations to gain their consent to take their lands "for immigration and settlement" in the area of the former Rupert's Land (although many of the treaty terms made to get this consent were subsequently violated by Canada).[9] The Dominion government then passed the Dominion Lands Act in 1872 to encourage the settlement of the Canadian Prairies, and to help prevent the area from being claimed by the United States.[10] The act gave a claimant 160 acres (or 65 hectares) for free, the only cost to the farmer being a $10 administration fee. Any male farmer who was at least 21 years of age and agreed to cultivate at least 40 acres (16 ha) of the land and build a permanent dwelling on it (within three years) qualified.[11] The population of the Canadian prairies grew rapidly in the last decade of the 19th century, and the population of Saskatchewan quintupled from 91,000 in 1901 to 492,000 to 1911.[12] However, the vast majority of these people were immigrants from Europe.[11] Interprovincial migration in Canada was at its highest in the first 20 years of the 20th century, and started to decrease in the 1920s.[13]

Out-emigration from Quebec dramatically spiked in 1977, one year after the Parti Québécois won the 1976 Quebec general elections. It spiked again in 1996, one year after the 1995 Quebec referendum. This second spike was, however, 37.5% the size of the 1977 spike.[3]

Influences

A number of factors have been identified by academic research in influencing interprovincial migration.

Demographic factors

The odds of a Canadian moving from one province to another is inversely related to the home province's population size: the larger the province, the less likely a resident is to move away. Interprovincial migration is negatively related to marriage, and the presence of children for both men and women. Younger people also tend to be more mobile than their older counterparts. Men are more likely to move than women, although men's rates of interprovincial migration are declining slightly while women's are holding steadier or rising slightly.[1]

Interprovincial migration is also more common among residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas than for residents of larger cities. The largest Canadian population centers (Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal and Calgary) also tend to attract the largest amount of interprovincial migrants, and there is a lot of flow between these cities.[14]

Economic factors

The economic situation of each province is an important indicator of internal migration within Canada. It is more likely for people to move out of a province with higher unemployment rate. Interprovincial migration is also positively related to the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance, having no market income, and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men).[1] Canadian provinces also tend to lose more people than they gain when their province is in recession. Alberta, for example, experienced a net loss of people to interprovincial migration from September 2015 to December 2017.[15]

Language

Language spoken is a strong predictor of interprovincial migration. Francophone Quebeckers are among the groups of people which are the least likely to move across provinces.[16] Francophones in New Brunswick are much less likely to move out of province than their anglophone counterparts.[13]

The only group less likely to migrate across province than Francophone quebeckers is francophone immigrants living in Quebec. Inversely, Francophone immigrants living outside Quebec is the group most prone to interprovincial migration, as 9.2% of them move to another province. Over half of Francophones outside Quebec (immigrant and Canada-born) who migrate across provinces choose Quebec as their destination.[16]

Literacy

Literacy used to be a significant indicator of interprovincial migration in Canada in the late 19th and early 20th century. Anglophone Canadians who could read were more likely to move than their illiterate counterparts. For francophone Quebeckers, however, this was the opposite, as literate unilingual francophones were more likely to stay in Quebec than illiterate unilingual francophones. Literacy had, however, no effet on the likelihood of migration of bilingual Quebeckers.[13]

Provincial level

Number of years between 1971 and 2019 that each province and territory had positive interprovincial immigration. Darker shades represent more years.

Alberta

Over the past five decades, Alberta has had the highest net increase from interprovincial migration of any province. However, it typically experiences population decline during economic downturns, as it did during the 1980s.[3] Oil is the main industry driving interprovincial migration to Alberta, as many Canadians move to Alberta to work on the oil fields. Interprovincial migration to Alberta rises and drops dependent of the price of oil. There was a dramatic reduction after the 2014 drop in oil prices.[17][15]

Interprovincial migration in Alberta

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	57,958	61,229	−3,271
2010–11	63,975	55,532	8,443
2011–12	80,837	53,185	27,652
2012–13	84,602	46,004	38,598
2013–14	87,307	51,925	35,382
2014–15	81,540	59,946	21,594
2015–16	56,978	72,086	−15,108
2016–17	50,396	65,955	−15,559
2017–18	55,147	58,394	−3,247
2018–19	65,778	60,236	5,542
2019–20	85,919	77,519	8,400

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

British Columbia

British Columbia has also traditionally been gaining from interprovincial migration. Over the last 50 years, British Columbia had 12 years of negative interprovincial immigration: the lowest in the country. The only time the province significantly lost population to this phenomenon was during the 1990s, when it had a negative interprovincial migration for 5 consecutive years.[3]

Interprovincial migration in British Columbia

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	49,469	40,741	8,728
2010–11	47,854	44,433	3,421
2011–12	48,593	51,304	−2,711
2012–13	43,830	45,698	−1,868
2013–14	52,281	42,806	9,475
2014–15	61,026	40,647	20,379
2015–16	63,788	37,215	26,573
2016–17	57,210	38,376	18,834
2017–18	55,300	41,311	13,989
2018–19	55,612	49,501	6,111
2019–20	71,180	61,122	10,058

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Manitoba

Manitoba is one of the provinces most affected by Interprovincial migration, having had a negative mobility ratio for 42 out of 46 years from 1971 to 2017. This is the second-worst record for years of negative interprovincial migration, followed only by Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Manitoba

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	11,786	14,198	−2,412
2010–11	11,085	14,602	−3,517
2011–12	11,443	15,655	−4,212
2012–13	9,988	14,994	−5,006
2013–14	9,452	16,303	−6,851
2014–15	10,022	16,700	−6,678
2015–16	10,994	15,875	−4,881
2016–17	10,350	15,474	−5,124
2017–18	9,578	16,726	−7,148
2018–19	10,351	19,597	−9,246
2019–20	13,370	25,082	−11,712

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

New Brunswick

New Brunswick has typically experienced less emigration than its size and economic situation would suggest, probably because of the low rate of emigration of its francophone population.[1] However, New Brunswick is predicted to continue low or negative population growth in the long term due to interprovincial migration and a low birth rate.[18]

Interprovincial migration in New Brunswick

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	10,883	10,312	571
2010–11	10,167	10,325	−158
2011–12	10,044	11,850	−1,806
2012–13	8,517	11,807	−3,290
2013–14	9,055	12,572	−3,517
2014–15	9,184	11,974	−2,790
2015–16	10,248	11,361	−1,113
2016–17	10,136	9,702	434
2017–18	10,709	10,228	481
2018–19	11,945	11,339	606
2019–20	15,136	14,247	889

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Newfoundland and Labrador

Since it started being recorded in 1971, Newfoundland and Labrador is the province that has lost the biggest share of its population to interprovincial migration, which was especially high in the 1990s. Out-migration from the province was curtailed in 2008 and net migration stayed positive through 2014, when it again dropped due to bleak finances and rising unemployment (caused by falling oil prices).[3] With the announcement of the 2016 provincial budget, St. John's Telegram columnist Russell Wangersky published the column "Get out if you can", which urged young Newfoundlanders to leave the province to avoid future hardships.[19]

Interprovincial migration in Newfoundland and Labrador

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	8,998	7,440	1,558
2010–11	7,785	7,755	30
2011–12	8,173	7,628	545
2012–13	7,283	6,788	495
2013–14	6,994	6,760	234
2014–15	7,012	6,851	161
2015–16	6,600	6,368	232
2016–17	5,400	6,830	−1,430
2017–18	5,187	7,920	−2,733
2018–19	5,207	9,706	−4,501
2019–20	7,097	11,464	−4,367

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Nova Scotia

From 1971 to 2012, Nova Scotia had a persistent negative trend in net interprovincial migration. Combined with a declining birth rate, this poses a significant demographic challenge for the province, as its population is projected to decline from 948,000 people in 2011 to 926,000 people in 2038. The destination for Nova Scotia migrants was most often Ontario, until the turn of the 21st century when Alberta became a more popular destination; New Brunswick ranks as a distant third.[20]

Interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	15,172	14,560	612
2010–11	14,553	14,594	−41
2011–12	14,410	17,276	−2,866
2012–13	12,630	16,147	−3,517
2013–14	13,402	15,973	−2,571
2014–15	13,854	16,165	−2,311
2015–16	15,107	14,353	754
2016–17	15,339	12,500	2,839
2017–18	15,509	12,461	3,048
2018–19	17,324	14,018	3,306
2019–20	21,934	18,046	3,888

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Ontario

Ontario's interprovincial migrations have shifted over the years. It was negative in the 1970s, positive in the 1980s, but then negative again in the 1990s. It returned to positive figures around the time of the turn of the millennium, was consistently in the negatives from 2003 to 2015, then returned to the positives through 2018. Over the period from 1971 to 2015, Ontario was the province which experience the second-lowest levels of interprovincial in-migration and out-migration, second only to Quebec.[3]

Interprovincial migration in Ontario

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	59,741	64,403	−4,662
2010–11	58,317	62,324	−4,007
2011–12	60,459	71,070	−10,611
2012–13	54,678	68,579	−13,901
2013–14	57,415	71,979	−14,564
2014–15	62,874	71,569	−8,695
2015–16	71,790	62,713	9,077
2016–17	71,717	58,335	13,382
2017–18	69,918	59,974	9,944
2018–19	77,281	65,550	11,731
2019–20	97,031	89,210	7,821

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Prince Edward Island

Since 1971, Prince Edward Island mostly had years of positive interprovincial migration. However, in the 2010s, it turned to the negative. This interprovincial migration exceeded all immigration to the province in 2015.[21]

Interprovincial migration in Prince Edward Island

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	2,709	2,649	60
2010–11	2,494	2,704	−210
2011–12	2,620	3,238	−618
2012–13	2,294	3,195	−901
2013–14	2,198	3,139	−941
2014–15	2,367	3,049	−682
2015–16	2,874	2,844	30
2016–17	3,124	2,680	444
2017–18	3,193	3,016	177
2018–19	3,922	3,793	129
2019–20	4,410	5,047	−637

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Quebec

Since it began being recorded in 1971 until 2018, each year Quebec has had negative interprovincial migration, and among the provinces it has experienced the largest net loss of people due to the effect.[3] Between 1981 and 2017, Quebec lost about 229,700 people below the age of 45 to interprovincial migration.[22] Per capita, Quebec has lost significantly fewer people than other provinces. This is due to the large population of the province and the very low migration rate of francophone Quebeckers.[1] However, Quebec receives much fewer than average in-migrants from other provinces.[3]

In Quebec, allo-phones are more likely to migrate out of the province than average: between 1996 and 2001, over 19,170 migrated to other provinces; 18,810 of whom migrated to Ontario.[23]

Interprovincial Migration Between Quebec and Other Provinces and Territories by Mother Tongue[24]

Mother Tongue / Year	1971–1976	1976–1981	1981–1986	1986–1991	1991–1996	1996–2001	2001–2006	2006–2011	2011-2016	Total
French	−4,100	−18,000	−12,900	5,200	1,200	−8,900	5,000	−2,610	−9,940	−45,050
English	−52,200	−106,300	−41,600	−22,200	−24,500	−29,200	−8,000	−5,930	−11,005	−300,635
Other	−5,700	−17,400	−8,700	−8,600	−14,100	−19,100	−8,700	−12,710	−16,015	−111,025

Interprovincial migration in Quebec

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	21,048	24,306	−3,258
2010–11	19,884	24,647	−4,763
2011–12	20,179	27,094	−6,915
2012–13	16,879	27,310	−10,431
2013–14	16,536	30,848	−14,312
2014–15	16,611	32,753	−16,142
2015–16	19,259	30,377	−11,118
2016–17	19,531	27,658	−8,127
2017–18	20,777	26,470	−5,693
2018–19	24,604	27,653	−3,049
2019–20	33,843	35,066	−1,223

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

Saskatchewan

Inter-provincial migration has long been a demographic challenge for Saskatchewan, and it was often said that "Saskatchewan's most valuable export [was] its young people".[25] The trend reversed in 2006 as the nascent oil fracking industry started growing in the province, but returned to negative net migration starting in 2013. Most people migrating from Saskatchewan move west to Alberta or British Columbia.[26]

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan

	In-migrants	Out-migrants	Net migration
2009–10	17,237	15,084	2,153
2010–11	16,602	16,057	545
2011–12	19,386	17,508	1,878
2012–13	16,982	16,590	392
2013–14	16,371	18,210	−1,839
2014–15	15,346	19,874	−4,528
2015–16	15,260	19,532	−4,272
2016–17	13,130	18,890	−5,760
2017–18	11,637	20,112	−8,475
2018–19	11,637	23,607	−9,688
2019–20	18,593	30,849	−12,256

Source: Statistics Canada[2]

See also

• Territorial evolution of Canada

References

1. Finnie, Ross (2004). School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University and Business and Labour Market Analysis Division, Statistics Canada. "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada". Applied Economics. 36 (16): 1759–1779. doi:10.1080/0003684042000191147.
2. Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.
3. "Interprovincial Migration in Canada: Quebeckers Vote with Their Feet" (PDF). www.fraserinstitute.org. Retrieved 2018-12-26.
4. Thornton, Patricia A. (Autumn 1985). "The Problem of Out-Migration from Atlantic Canada, 1871-1921: A New Look". Acadiensis. XV (1): 3–34. ISSN 0044-5851. JSTOR 30302704.
5. Bélanger, Damien-Claude (23 August 2000). "French Canadian Emigration to the United States, 1840–1930". Québec History, Claude Bélanger, Marianopolis College. Archived from the original on 25 January 2007. Retrieved 2007-01-31.
6. Bélanger, Claude. "Emigration to the United States from Canada and Quebec, 1840–1940". Quebec History. Marianopolis College. Retrieved 24 July 2013.
7. Robert Craig Brown, and Ramsay Cook, Canada, 1896-1921: A nation transformed (1974) pp 253-62
8. Sprague, DN. Canada and the Métis, 1869–1885. Waterloo, ON: Wilfrid Laurier University Press; 1988. ISBN 0-88920-964-2. p. 33–67, 89–129.
9. Carr-Steward, Sheila (2001). "A Treaty Right to Education" (PDF). Canadian Journal of Education. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-04.
10. Lambrecht, Kirk N (1991). The Administration of Dominion Lands, 1870-1930.
11. "Dominion Lands Act | The Canadian Encyclopedia". www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
12. The history of Saskatchewan's population Archived 2006-05-19 at the Wayback Machine from Statistics Canada
13. Lew, Byron; Cater, Bruce (May 2011). "Interprovincial Migration in Canada, 1911–1951 and Beyond" (PDF). people.trentu.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
14. Amirault, David; de Munnik, Daniel; Miller, Sarah (Spring 2013). "Explaining Canada's regional Migration Patterns" (PDF). www.bankofcanada.ca. Bank of Canada Review. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
15. December 21, Jonny Wakefield Updated; 2017 (2017-12-21). "Alberta no longer a loser on interprovincial migration | Edmonton Journal". Retrieved 2018-12-26.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
16. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2017-02-06). "Interprovincial migration of French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec". aem. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
17. "The death of the Alberta dream - Macleans.ca". www.macleans.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
18. "The Implications of New Brunswick's Population Forecasts" (PDF). www.nbjobs.ca. Retrieved 2018-12-27.
19. Bailey, Sue (19 April 2016). "Exodus? Newfoundland and Labrador's bleak finances fuel angst for the future". CBC News. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
20. Rashti, Amir Ahmadi; Koops, Adrian; Covey, Spencer (Spring 2015). "The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment". Dalhousie Journal of Interdisciplinary Management. 11: 28.
21. Aug 16, Kevin Yarr · CBC News · Posted; August 16, 2016 11:00 AM AT | Last Updated; 2016. "Immigration not keeping pace with people leaving P.E.I. | CBC News". CBC. Retrieved 2018-12-28.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
22. Serebrin, Jacob; July 26, Montreal Gazette Updated; 2018 (2018-07-26). "Quebec losing young people to interprovincial migration, report shows | Montreal Gazette". Retrieved 2018-12-28.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
23. "Net population gains or losses from interprovincial migration by language group, provinces and territories, 1991-1996 and 1996-2001". Archived from the original on 2008-06-17. Retrieved 2018-12-29.
24. "Interprovincial Migration by Mother Tongue for Interprovincial Migrants Aged 5 Years and Over, Provinces and Territories, 1971 to 2016". Statistics Canada. Retrieved 2010-03-11.
25. Elliot, Doug (2005). Interprovincial Migration - in the Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Regina: Canadian Plains Research Center, University of Regina. pp. 483–484.
26. "Exodus of Saskatchewan residents to Alberta, British Columbia, continues to plague province | Globalnews.ca". globalnews.ca. 2018-06-06. Archived from the original on 2018-12-29. Retrieved 2018-12-28.

External links

• Canada's official population clock (real-time model)