2021 Senedd election

The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[2] to elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.

2021 Senedd election

Due on 6 May 2021
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament 31 seats needed for a majority
Leader Mark Drakeford Andrew R. T. Davies Adam Price Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Leader since 6 December 2018 24 January 2021[1] 28 September 2018 Leader's seat Cardiff West South Wales Central Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats Current seats 28 11 10 Seats needed 2 20 21   Leader Richard Suchorzewski Neil Hamilton Jane Dodds Party Abolish the Welsh Assembly UKIP Liberal Democrats Leader since 11 June 2020 26 September 2016 3 November 2017 Leader's seat not in Senedd Mid and West Wales not in Senedd Last election 0 seats 7 seats 1 seat Current seats 2[lower-alpha 1] 1 1 Seats needed 29 30 30   Leader Neil McEvoy Party Propel Leader since 15 January 2020 Leader's seat South Wales Central Last election New party Current seats 1[lower-alpha 2] Seats needed 30
Incumbent First Minister Mark Drakeford Labour

It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[3]

Five parties had Members of the Senedd (MSs, formerly Assembly Members – AMs) elected at the last election: Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Seven political parties are currently represented in the Senedd. These are the five aforementioned parties and two parties that gained MSs who were elected for – and moved from – other political parties. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party gained two MSs who were elected for UKIP in 2016, and the Welsh Nation Party gained an MS elected for Plaid Cymru in 2016.

Electoral system

In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.

This will be the first election where 16 and 17 year olds can vote, following the enactment of a new law in January 2020.[3]

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election.[4] The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the four ex-UK Independence Party (UKIP) members, led by Mark Reckless.[5] A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing six parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.[6]

On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales narrowly voted to leave the EU.[7] South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted in favour of Brexit, and are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.

Plaid campaigned for a Remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[8] Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter.[9][10] Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership.[11] A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondents wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.[12][13] A follow-up YouGov poll in August 2020 concluded that support for Welsh independence had risen to 32%.[14]

On 17 May 2020, Health Minister Vaughan Gething told ITV Wales it was "possible" that the election might not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic.[15] The First Minister announced on 29 June 2020 that a group with representatives from all of the main parties would look at the arrangements that might have to be in place for the election if COVID-19 restrictions are still required. It will look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".[16] There was no consensus to agree if a delay was needed, but all parties agreed on measures to encourage vulnerable voters and others to consider applying for a postal vote and early applications, greater flexibility around the nomination of candidates, postal and proxy voting, and measures to ensure the safe operation of polling stations and count venues.[17] The Welsh Government is drafting a bill that if needed could be introduced in 2021 giving the Llywydd (presiding officer) the ability to delay the election by up to six months.[18]

During the pandemic, the Welsh government messaging and law have been distinct from the UK governments actions in England; this has made the Welsh public more conscious about devolution.[19] The Welsh government only let businesses access the Economic Resilience Fund devolved to them by Westminster if they officially recognised a trade union so they could recruit in those workplaces.[20] The Welsh government announced a two-week lockdown as a means of reducing the prevalence of the virus — called a "firebreak" — in line with the other devolved administrations and distinct from the UK government's lockdown in England.[21]

On 11 December 2020, Plaid announced that they would hold a referendum on Welsh independence within five years if they won a majority.[22] Despite being a unionist party, Labour has selected three candidates who support independence.[23]

On 3 February 2021, UKIP leader Neil Hamilton stated that the party would pledge to deliver a referendum on the devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.[24]

Retiring members

The following MSs will not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region	Departing MS	Party
Bridgend	Carwyn Jones[25]		Labour
South Wales Central	David Melding[26]		Conservatives
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Dafydd Elis-Thomas[27]		Independent
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Angela Burns[28]		Conservatives
South Wales West	Bethan Sayed[29]		Plaid Cymru
Brecon and Radnorshire	Kirsty Williams[30]		Liberal Democrats
South Wales West	Suzy Davies[31]		Conservatives
Vale of Clwyd	Ann Jones[32]		Labour

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency	Conservatives	Labour	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dem	Green	Others
Aberavon	Liz Hill O'Shea[33]	David Rees	Victoria Griffiths[34]
Aberconwy	Janet Finch-Saunders	Dawn McGuinness[35]	Aaron Wynne	Rhys Jones[36]
Alyn and Deeside	Abigail Mainon[37]	Jack Sargeant		Chris Twells [38]
Arfon	Tony Thomas[39]	Iwan Jones[40]	Siân Gwenllian	Calum Davies
Blaenau Gwent	Edward Dawson[41]	Alun Davies	Peredur Owen Griffiths[42]			Calen Jones[43]
Brecon and Radnorshire	James Evans	Gethin Jones	Grenville Ham	William Powell
Bridgend		Sarah Murphy[44]		Harvey Jones[45]		Steven Bletsoe Caroline Jones [46]
Caerphilly	Steven Mayfield[47]	Hefin David	Delyth Jewell
Cardiff Central	Calum Davies[48]	Jenny Rathbone	Wiliam Rees	Rodney Berman[49]
Cardiff North	Joel Williams	Julie Morgan	Ashley Drake	Rhys Taylor
Cardiff South and Penarth	Leighton Rowlands[50]	Vaughan Gething	Nasir Adam[51]	Alex Wilson [52]
Cardiff West	Sean Driscoll[53]	Mark Drakeford	Rhys ab Owen[54]	Heath Marshall [55]		Neil McEvoy (Welsh Nation Party)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Havard Hughes[56]	Rob James [57]	Adam Price
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire	Sam Kurtz[58]	Riaz Hassan	Rhys Thomas[59]	Alistair Cameron [60]
Ceredigion	Amanda Jenner[61]	Dylan Lewis-Rowlands	Elin Jones	Cadan ap Tomos [62]
Clwyd South	Barbara Hughes	Ken Skates		Leena Farhat
Clwyd West	Darren Millar	Joshua Hurst [63]	Elin Walker Jones	David Wilkins [64]
Cynon Valley	Mia Rees[65]	Vikki Howells
Delyn	Mark Isherwood[58]	Hannah Blythyn		Andrew Parkhurst [38]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Charlie Evans[66]	Cian Ireland	Mabon ap Gwynfor[67]	Steve Churchman
Gower	Myles Langstone[68]	Rebecca Evans	John Davies	Michael Sheehan	Chris Evans
Islwyn	Gavin Chambers[69]	Rhianon Passmore	Rhys Mills[70]	Oliver Townsend
Llanelli	Stefan Ryszewski[71]	Lee Waters	Helen Mary Jones[72]			Sian Caiach (Gwlad)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Donna Gavin[73]	Dawn Bowden	Ian Gwynne[74]
Monmouth		Catrin Maby		Jo Watkins[75]
Montgomeryshire	Russell George		Elwyn Vaughan	Alison Alexander
Neath	Mathew Williams[76]	Jeremy Miles	Sioned Williams		Megan Poppy Lloyd
Newport East	Gareth Rhys Hughes[77]	John Griffiths		Mike Hamilton[78]
Newport West	Michael Enea[79]	Jayne Bryant		John Miller[80]
Ogmore	Nathan Adams[81]	Huw Irranca-Davies	Luke Fletcher[82]
Pontypridd	Joel James[83]	Mick Antoniw	Heledd Fychan[84]	Steven Rajam[85]
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Paul Davies	Jackie Jones[86]	Cris Tomos[87]	Tina Roberts [88]
Rhondda		Elizabeth Buffy Williams [89]	Leanne Wood
Swansea East	Cameron Brennan[90]	Mike Hedges	Rhiannon Barrar[91]	Sam Bennett
Swansea West	Samantha Chohan[92]	Julie James	Dai Lloyd	Chloe Hutchinson
Torfaen	Gruff Parry	Lynne Neagle		Veronica German[93]
Vale of Clwyd	Gareth Davies
Vale of Glamorgan	Matt Smith	Jane Hutt	Richard Grigg	Sally Stephenson [94]		Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)
Wrexham	Jeremy Kent	Lesley Griffiths	Carrie Harper	Tim Sly
Ynys Môn	Lyn Hudson[95]	Samantha Egelstaff	Rhun ap Iorwerth

Regional nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Region	Labour[96]	Plaid Cymru[97]	Conservatives[98][99][100][101][102]	Lib Dem [103]	Green[104]	Others
Mid and West Wales	Eluned Morgan	Cefin Campbell	Tomos Davies		Emily Durrant
	Joyce Watson	Helen Mary Jones	Amanda Jenner		Tomos Barlow
	Helen Taylor	Rhys Thomas	Liz Lesnianski		Harry Hayfield
	Ben Gwalchmai	Elwyn Vaughan	Aled Davies		Marc Pearton
North Wales	Carolyn Thomas	Llyr Gruffydd	Mark Isherwood	Chris Twells	Iolo Jones
	Andy Short	Carrie Harper	Sam Rowlands		Ducan Rees
	Diane Green	Elin Walker Jones	Barbara Hughes		Adam Turner
	Ryan O’Gorman	Owen Hurcum	Gareth Davies		Linda Rogers
South Wales Central	Ruba Sivagnanam	Rhys ab Owen	Andrew RT Davies	Rodney Berman	Anthony Slaughter
	Dan De’Ath	Heledd Fychan	Joel James	Rhys Taylor	Helen Westhead
	Maliika Kaaba	Fflur Elin	Calum Davies		David Griffin
	Owain Williams	Sahar Al-Faifi	Chris Thorne		Debra Cooper
South Wales East	Helen Cunningham	Delyth Jewell	Laura Anne Jones	Jo Watkins	Amelia Womack
	Peter Jones	Peredur Owen Griffiths	Natasha Asghar		Ian Chandler
	Mary Ann Brocklesby	Lindsay Whittle	Matthew Evans		Lauren James
	Majid Rahman	Rhys Mills	Nick Evans		Stephen Priestnall
South Wales West	Sian James	Sioned Williams	Tom Giffard	Chloe Hutchinson	Megan Poppy Lloyd
	Kevin Pascoe	Luke Fletcher	Altaf Hussain		Chris Evans
	Neelo Farr	John Davies	Samantha Chohan		Alex Harris
	Mahaboob Basha	Jamie Evans	Liz Hill O'Shea		Tom Muller

Opinion polling

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain (%)	Labour's place 2016	Result
1	Aberconwy		Welsh Conservatives	1,607 (over Labour)	3.35	3rd
2	Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire		Welsh Conservatives	3,373	5.75	2nd
3	Preseli Pembrokeshire		Welsh Conservatives	3,930	6.8	2nd
4	Rhondda		Plaid Cymru	3,459	7.35	2nd
5	Monmouth		Welsh Conservatives	5,147	8.2	2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain (%)	Plaid's place 2016	Result
1	Llanelli		Labour	382	0.65	2nd
2	Blaenau Gwent		Labour	650	1.55	2nd
3	Aberconwy		Welsh Conservatives	754	1.7	2nd
4	Cardiff West		Labour	1,176	1.85	2nd
5	Caerphilly		Labour	1,575	2.9	2nd
6	Neath		Labour	2,923	5.75	2nd

Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain (%)	Conservatives' place 2016	Result
1	Vale of Glamorgan		Labour	777	1.05	2nd
2	Vale of Clwyd		Labour	768	1.55	2nd
3	Gower		Labour	1,829	3.05	2nd
4	Wrexham		Labour	1,325	3.25	2nd
5	Cardiff North		Labour	3,667	4.9	2nd
6	Clwyd South		Labour	3,016	6.8	2nd
7	Delyn		Labour	3,582	7.7	2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency	Winning party 2016		Majority	Swing to gain (%)	Lib Dems' place 2016	Result
1	Cardiff Central		Labour	817	1.55	2nd
2	Ceredigion		Plaid Cymru	2,408	4.1	2nd
3	Montgomeryshire		Welsh Conservatives	3,339	7.05	2nd

See also

• List of political parties in Wales
• Next Scottish Parliament election

Notes

1. Neither of the party's two representatives in the Senedd were elected for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party. Gareth Bennett was elected for UKIP in 2016, before leaving to become an independent and then the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020. The party's other representative in the Senedd, Mark Reckless, was also elected for UKIP, before joining the Conservative Group (although not the party) then becoming a member of the Brexit Party in 2019, before joining the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020.
2. The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Neil McEvoy, was elected as a member of Plaid Cymru in 2016, before leaving the party to become an independent, then created the Welsh National Party (now Propel) in 2020.

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