2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

The 2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

26 May 2019
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,572,308 0.3%
Turnout	1,091,900 (69.4%) 2.1 pp
Leader Emiliano García-Page Francisco Núñez Carmen Picazo Party PSOE PP Cs Leader since 26 February 2012 7 October 2018 9 March 2019 Leader's seat Toledo Albacete Albacete Last election 15 seats, 36.1% 16 seats, 37.5% 0 seats, 8.6% Seats won 19 10 4 Seat change 4 6 4 Popular vote 476,469 308,184 122,955 Percentage 44.1% 28.5% 11.4% Swing 8.0 pp 9.0 pp 2.9 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
President before election Emiliano García-Page PSOE Elected President Emiliano García-Page PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1]

Parliamentary status

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were officially dissolved on 2 April 2019, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha.[6] The tables below show the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	16	16
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	15	15
	We Can Parliamentary Group		Podemos	2	2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Francisco Núñez	Conservatism Christian democracy	37.49%	16		[8]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Emiliano García-Page	Social democracy	36.11%	15		[9]
	Podemos– IU–Equo	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IUCLM) Equo (Equo)		José García Molina	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	12.85%[lower-alpha 1]	2		[10] [11]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Carmen Picazo	Liberalism	8.64%	0		[12]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Daniel Arias Vegas	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	0.48%	0		[13]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout								Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	N/A	69.4	28.5 10	44.1 19	[lower-alpha 2]	11.4 4	[lower-alpha 2]	7.0 0	6.9 0	15.6
GfK/FORTA[p 1][p 2]	26 May 2019	26,000	?	26.6 8/10	43.1 16/18	[lower-alpha 2]	10.4 3/4	[lower-alpha 2]	7.7 0/1	10.0 2/3	16.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3]	29 Apr–23 May 2019	?	?	27.3 11	35.6 15	[lower-alpha 2]	15.4 5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.7 1	9.5 1	8.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4]	29 Apr–22 May 2019	?	?	27.8 11	35.7 15	[lower-alpha 2]	15.1 5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.6 1	9.4 1	7.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5]	29 Apr–21 May 2019	?	?	27.6 11	35.4 15	[lower-alpha 2]	15.2 5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.9 1	9.6 1	7.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6]	29 Apr–20 May 2019	?	?	27.7 11	35.1 15	[lower-alpha 2]	15.6 5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.7 1	9.7 1	7.4
NC Report/La Razón[p 7][p 8][p 9]	19 May 2019	?	?	28.1 11/12	38.4 15/16	[lower-alpha 2]	? 3/4	[lower-alpha 2]	? 1/2	? 1/2	10.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10]	29 Apr–19 May 2019	?	?	27.7 11	35.0 15	[lower-alpha 2]	15.0 5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.9 1	9.6 1	7.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11]	29 Apr–16 May 2019	?	?	26.9 11	33.7 12	[lower-alpha 2]	17.5 7	[lower-alpha 2]	9.1 2	9.5 1	6.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 12]	29 Apr–13 May 2019	?	?	25.6 11	31.6 12	[lower-alpha 2]	19.8 7	[lower-alpha 2]	10.0 2	9.9 1	6.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 13]	29 Apr–10 May 2019	?	?	24.5 11	31.0 12	[lower-alpha 2]	20.6 7	[lower-alpha 2]	10.6 2	10.2 1	6.5
Numeral8[p 14]	6–9 May 2019	2,000	?	27.1 10/11	38.8 15/17	[lower-alpha 2]	13.3 3/4	[lower-alpha 2]	8.7 1/2	9.0 1/2	11.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15]	29 Apr–7 May 2019	?	?	23.9 11	31.0 12	[lower-alpha 2]	20.8 7	[lower-alpha 2]	10.9 2	10.1 1	7.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 16]	29 Apr–4 May 2019	?	?	23.6 9	30.7 12	[lower-alpha 2]	20.9 7	[lower-alpha 2]	11.0 4	10.2 1	7.1
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	N/A	76.6	22.7 8	32.4 13	[lower-alpha 2]	17.5 6	[lower-alpha 2]	15.3 5	10.2 1	10.7
CIS[p 17]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	1,088	?	29.8 11/14	40.3 15/18	[lower-alpha 2]	8.6 2/3	[lower-alpha 2]	6.8 0/1	10.9 2/3	10.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18]	22 Feb–7 Apr 2019	?	?	27.0 11	34.8 13	[lower-alpha 2]	11.8 2	[lower-alpha 2]	12.3 5	9.9 2	7.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 19]	22 Feb–31 Mar 2019	?	?	26.2 10	35.0 13	[lower-alpha 2]	12.2 4	[lower-alpha 2]	12.4 5	9.8 1	8.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 20]	22 Feb–24 Mar 2019	?	?	26.5 10	36.0 14	[lower-alpha 2]	12.0 4	[lower-alpha 2]	12.0 4	9.5 1	9.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 21]	22 Feb–17 Mar 2019	?	?	26.6 10	34.4 13	[lower-alpha 2]	11.1 3	[lower-alpha 2]	14.4 5	9.7 2	7.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 22]	22 Feb–10 Mar 2019	?	?	26.1 10	33.9 13	[lower-alpha 2]	11.7 3	[lower-alpha 2]	14.3 5	9.9 2	7.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 23]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?	26.3 10	33.7 13	[lower-alpha 2]	11.8 3	[lower-alpha 2]	14.0 5	9.9 2	7.4
SW Demoscopia/PSOE[p 24]	8 Jan 2019	2,000	?	26.3 10/11	40.3 16/17	[lower-alpha 2]	16.3 4/5	[lower-alpha 2]	8.5 0/1	8.6 1/2	14.0
NC Report/La Razón[p 25]	14–18 May 2018	1,400	68.9	33.3 13/14	32.9 13/14	9.9 2	15.0 4/5	4.2 0	–	–	0.4
SyM Consulting[p 26][p 27]	21–24 Mar 2018	3,200	73.5	32.2 11/14	35.0 13/17	9.5 1/2	14.3 3/4	3.4 0	–	–	2.8
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 28]	1–22 Mar 2018	1,950	?	28.6 11	37.2 14/17	9.0 1/3	16.8 4/6	–	–	–	8.6
Noxa/PSOE[p 29][p 30][p 31]	22–26 May 2017	1,000	?	34.3	37.9	9.0	12.5	2.2	–	–	3.6
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	N/A	71.8	42.7 16	27.3 9	[lower-alpha 2]	13.0 4	[lower-alpha 2]	0.2 0	14.7 4	15.4
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	N/A	75.3	38.1 14	28.4 11	13.7 4	13.8 4	3.6 0	0.3 0	–	9.7
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	N/A	71.5	37.5 16	36.1 15	9.7 2	8.6 0	3.1 0	0.5 0	–	1.4

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	476,469	44.10	+7.99	19	+4
	People's Party (PP)	308,184	28.53	–8.96	10	–6
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	122,955	11.38	+2.74	4	+4
	Vox (Vox)	75,813	7.02	+6.54	0	±0
	United We Can–United Left–Equo CLM (Podemos–IU–Equo)^1	74,777	6.92	–5.93	0	–2
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,662	0.80	–0.01	0	±0
	Castilian Party–Commoners' Land (PCAS–TC)	1,411	0.13	–0.01	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	1,248	0.12	+0.03	0	±0
	Traditions and Rural World (ANATUR–UDEC)	1,244	0.12	New	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	728	0.07	New	0	±0
	Together We Win (JG)	149	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		8,754	0.81	–0.94
Total		1,080,394			33	±0
Valid votes		1,080,394	98.95	+1.13
Invalid votes		11,506	1.05	–1.13
Votes cast / turnout		1,091,900	69.45	–2.05
Abstentions		480,408	30.55	+2.05
Registered voters		1,572,308
Sources[7][14]

Popular vote PSOE   44.10% PP   28.53% Cs   11.38% Vox   7.02% Unidas Podemos   6.92% Others   1.24% Blank ballots   0.81%

Seats PSOE   57.58% PP   30.30% Cs   12.12%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		Cs
	%	S	%	S	%	S
Albacete	41.9	4	29.1	2	13.2	1
Ciudad Real	46.3	4	28.6	2	11.3	1
Cuenca	46.4	3	32.8	2	7.9	−
Guadalajara	39.6	3	24.3	1	14.4	1
Toledo	44.6	5	28.3	3	10.5	1
Total	44.1	19	28.5	10	11.4	4
Sources[7][14]

Aftermath

Investiture Emiliano García-Page (PSOE)
Ballot →		3 July 2019
Required majority →		17 out of 33
	Yes • PSOE (19)	19 / 33
	No • PP (10) • Cs (4)	14 / 33
	Abstentions	0 / 33
	Absentees	0 / 33
Sources[7][15]

Notes

1. Results for Podemos (9.75%) and Let's Win Castilla–La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (3.10%) in the 2015 election.
2. Within Unidas Podemos.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones a la Junta con un 43% y entre 16 y 18 escaños, según el sondeo de GFK para CMM". CMM (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
2. "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Castilla-La Mancha y roza la mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 May 2019.
3. "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
4. "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
5. "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
6. "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
7. "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
8. "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
9. "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
10. "#emojiPanel Castilla-La Mancha (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
11. "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (18M): resurge el bipartidismo, con el PSOE disparado". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
12. "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (15M): Cs decidiría el próximo Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 May 2019.
13. "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (12M): el PP sube y pone distancia con Ciudadanos". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
14. "PP, Ciudadanos y VOX podrían sumar mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". El Digital de Albacete (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
15. "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (9M): el PP roba escaños a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
16. "#electoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (6M): subidón de Ciudadanos, ventaja para Page (PSOE)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2019.
17. "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
18. "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
19. "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
20. "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
21. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
22. "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
23. "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
24. "García-Page roza la mayoría absoluta, pero bajo la amenaza de Vox". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2019.
25. "Una alianza entre PP y Ciudadanos dejaría a García-Page fuera del Gobierno de Castilla–La Mancha". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2018.
26. "Estimación Marzo 2018. Castilla–La Mancha. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
27. "Castilla–La Mancha. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
28. "García-Page ganaría hoy al PP de Cospedal con 9 puntos de ventaja en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 April 2018.
29. "Un sondeo del PSOE da a García-Page cuatro puntos de ventaja sobre Cospedal en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
30. "Euforia en el PSOE de CLM tras la encuesta que le da ganador a Page si hoy hubiera elecciones". Noticias Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
31. "El PSOE ganaría hoy las elecciones en Castilla‑La Mancha sacando casi cuatro puntos de ventaja al PP". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha". Organic Law No. 9 of 10 August 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. "Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha". Law No. 5 of 23 December 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
6. "Decreto 21/2019, de 1 de abril, del Presidente de la Junta de Comunidades, por el que se convocan elecciones a Cortes de Castilla-La Mancha" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (79): 34020–34035. 2 April 2019. ISSN 0212-033X.
7. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
8. "Francisco Núñez, nuevo presidente del PP C-LM tras ser refrendado por el 92,8% de los votos de los compromisarios". Europa Press (in Spanish). 7 October 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
9. "Emiliano García-Page, designado candidato a la Presidencia de la Junta por aclamación". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 21 July 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
10. "García Molina gana sin sorpresas las primarias de Podemos y será el candidato a la Junta". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 27 November 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
11. "Podemos e IU alcanzan un acuerdo para confluir en Castilla-La Mancha con José García Molina como candidato a la Junta". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 11 March 2019. Retrieved 12 April 2019.
12. "Carmen Picazo, confirmada como candidata de Ciudadanos a la Presidencia de Castilla-La Mancha". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 9 March 2019. Retrieved 21 March 2019.
13. "Vox elige a su candidato para presidir la Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 30 April 2019. Retrieved 25 May 2019.
14. "Cortes of Castile-La Mancha election results, 26 May 2019" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 14 June 2019. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
15. "García-Page, presidente de Castilla-La Mancha con la mayoría absoluta de PSOE". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 3 July 2019. Retrieved 3 July 2019.