2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

March 15, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 81 62 Popular vote 696,681 535,395 Percentage 56.12% 43.13%

Election results by county.   Hillary Clinton   Bernie Sanders

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states and a caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands, as well as their own Ohio primary.

Clinton handily won the primary, putting her upset Rust Belt loss in Michigan behind her.[1] Clinton earned congressional endorsements from Reps. Tim Ryan, Joyce Beatty, Marcia Fudge and Sen. Sherrod Brown, while Sanders earned one Ohio backer, Rep. Marcy Kaptur.[2]

Background

By the time Ohio held its primaries, voters from 21 states and two territories already cast their vote for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. As of the March 12 elections, Hillary Clinton was projected to have earned 775 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders' 552.[3] Clinton gained significant victories in the Southern United States, often described as her "firewall",[4] including landslide victories in Mississippi and Alabama and Georgia.[5][6] Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders gained victories in the Midwestern United States,[7] where Ohio resides, including an upset victory in neighboring Michigan on March 8.[8][9] After the fact, Sanders' campaign took advantage of the momentum gained from the Michigan win, by targeting Illinois, Missouri and Ohio in the March 15 elections, hoping to repeat the same result. Sanders stated that "Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign."[10]

Before the Michigan primaries, Clinton and Sanders had debated over economic policies relating to the industrial midwest states and the so-called "rust belt". The disagreements centered around trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Clinton's past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its effect on economies such as Michigan and Ohio.[11][12]

Controversy

Ohio is one of at least seventeen states that has laws allowing voters who are 17 years of age, but will be 18 by the time of the general election, to vote in the presidential primaries.[13] However, Ohio Secretary of State Jon A. Husted had announced in December 2015 that 17 year olds would be outright barred from participating in the 2016 primaries. The rationale for the decision was based on an interpretation of the law in which 17 year olds could "nominate" officials for office, but not "elect". In the case of the presidential primaries, by definition, voters would be electing officials - delegates to each party's presidential nominating convention.[14] The decision was met with criticism by the public, after it was brought to mainstream attention by Representative Kathleen Clyde, after she condemned the rule in a statement released on March 5. Clyde described it as a "underhanded, backroom attack" against young voters.[15] Nine teenagers filed a lawsuit with the Ohio Courts of Common Pleas in Franklin County over the decision, stating that the decision contradicted state law and a decision by the Supreme Court of Ohio that allowed 17 year olds turning 18 by the general election to vote.[16]

Bernie Sanders' campaign, whose voter base includes the majority of young voters,[17][18] also filed a lawsuit against the decision, accusing Husted of "arbitrarily" and "unconsititutionally" discriminating against young African-American and Latino voters, citing data from the 2010 United States Census that shows younger voters in Ohio where mostly African-American and Latino.[19][20] Husted, in response to Sanders' lawsuit, said in a public statement that he welcomed the lawsuit, further stating that "I am very happy to be sued on this issue because the law is crystal clear",[19] though, he later spoke out negatively against the lawsuit, claiming that it was "a last-minute political act", designed to "draw attention to his campaign."[21] Many Ohio officials, past and present, such as former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, came out in support of Sanders' lawsuit,[22] and had attracted protests by not only Bernie Sanders supporters, but also Donald Trump supporters as well.[23] In a decision handed down on March 11, an Ohio state judge ruled in favour of both lawsuits by the teenage group and the Sanders campaign, effectively lifting the ban on 17 year olds from voting in the Ohio presidential primaries.[24] Husted initially announced that he would appeal the ruling,[25] however, after learning that such an appeal wouldn't be heard by the court until the day before the primaries, he retracted his intent to appeal.[26]

Debates and forums

March 13, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio

The ninth forum was held at 8:00 pm EDT on March 13, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and aired on CNN.[27]

March 14, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio and Springfield, Illinois

The tenth forum was held at 6:00 pm EDT on March 14, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and at the Old State Capitol State Historic Site (Illinois) in Springfield, Illinois. It aired on MSNBC. The first section of the town hall with Bernie Sanders was moderated by Chuck Todd; the second section of the town hall with Hillary Clinton was moderated by Chris Matthews.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Primary results	March 15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 56.1%	Bernie Sanders 43.1%	Other 0.8%
ARG[28] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	March 12–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 52%	Bernie Sanders 45%	Others / Undecided 3%
Monmouth[29] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 302	March 11–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 54%	Bernie Sanders 40%	Others / Undecided 6%
Quinnipiac[30] Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 543	March 8–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 51%	Bernie Sanders 46%	Others / Undecided 4%
Public Policy Polling[31] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502	March 11–12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 46%	Bernie Sanders 41%	Others / Undecided 13%
CBS News/YouGov[32] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 777	March 9–11, 2016	Hillary Clinton 52%	Bernie Sanders 43%	Others / Undecided 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[33] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 453	March 4–10, 2016	Hillary Clinton 58%	Bernie Sanders 38%	Others / Undecided 4%
Quinnipiac[34] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 521	March 2–7, 2016	Hillary Clinton 52%	Bernie Sanders 43%	Others / Undecided 5%
Public Polling Policy Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 508	March 4–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 56%	Bernie Sanders 35%	Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC[35] Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 294	March 2–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 63%	Bernie Sanders 33%	Others / Undecided 4%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 518	February 16–20, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 40%	Others / Undecided 5%
BW Community Research Institute Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 385	February 11–20, 2016	Bernie Sanders 45%	Hillary Clinton 44%	Others / Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1,138	January 12–14, 2016	Hillary Clinton 53%	Bernie Sanders 37%	Not sure 10%

Polls in 2015

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Quinnipiac University[36] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 396	September 25 – October 5, 2015	Hillary Clinton 40%	Joe Biden 21%	Bernie Sanders 19%	Undecided 11%
Quinnipiac University[37] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 353	August 7–18, 2015	Hillary Clinton 47%	Bernie Sanders 17%	Joe Biden 14%	Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 6%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[38] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 388	June 4–15, 2015	Hillary Clinton 60%	Joe Biden 13%	Bernie Sanders 10%	Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 360	June 4–7, 2015	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 13%	Michael Bloomberg 7%	Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Not sure 13%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 324	March 17–28, 2015	Hillary Clinton 54%	Elizabeth Warren 14%	Joe Biden 9%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
		Joe Biden 34%	Elizabeth Warren 25%	Martin O'Malley 5%	Bernie Sanders 5%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 24%
Quinnipiac University Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 315	January 22 – February 1, 2015	Hillary Clinton 51%	Elizabeth Warren 14%	Joe Biden 7%	Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
		Joe Biden 28%	Elizabeth Warren 24%	Bernie Sanders 7%	Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 4%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 28%

Results

Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	696,681	56.12%	81	14	95
Bernie Sanders	535,395	43.13%	62	1	63
Rocky De La Fuente	9,402	0.76%
Uncommitted	N/A			2	2
Total	1,241,478	100%	143	17	160
Source: The Green Papers

Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District	Delegates available	Votes					Delegates
		Clinton	Sanders	De La Fuente	Total	Qualified total	Clinton	Sanders
1	4	42,600	29,747	272	72,619	72,347	2	2
2	4	39,061	30,597	483	70,141	69,658	2	2
3	12	59,740	43,898	302	103,940	103,638	7	5
4	4	29,317	25,831	677	55,825	55,148	2	2
5	4	32,068	32,279	544	64,891	64,347	2	2
6	4	32,611	27,413	1,545	61,569	60,024	2	2
7	4	33,596	27,823	745	62,164	61,419	2	2
8	4	26,463	21,879	413	48,755	48,342	2	2
9	8	55,401	42,141	680	98,222	97,542	5	3
10	4	41,641	31,089	350	73,080	72,730	2	2
11	17	91,235	43,124	382	134,741	134,359	12	5
12	4	38,046	34,109	352	72,507	72,155	2	2
13	8	56,933	45,981	1,055	103,969	102,914	4	4
14	4	43,317	33,627	537	77,481	76,944	2	2
15	4	33,764	32,516	516	66,796	66,280	2	2
16	4	40,888	33,341	549	74,778	74,229	2	2
Total	93	696,681	535,395	9,402	1,241,478	1,232,076	52	41
PLEO	19						11	8
At Large	31						18	13
Gr. Total	143						81	62
Total vote		56.12%	43.13%	0.76%	100.00%	99.24%
Source: Ohio Secretary of State Presidential Preference Primary Precinct Level Official Results (Democrat)

Results by county

County[39]	Clinton	Votes	Sanders	Votes
Adams	56.8%	877	41.3%	638
Allen	56.6%	3,670	42.1%	2,730
Ashland	49.1%	1,451	49.5%	1,465
Ashtabula	54.9%	5,320	43.9%	4,256
Athens	38.2%	3,533	61.2%	5,663
Auglaize	51.0%	1,031	47.1%	952
Belmont	53.1%	3,982	43.5%	3,263
Belmont	58.3%	1,562	39.8%	1,067
Butler	53.4%	12,874	46.0%	11,102
Carroll	51.4%	1,084	46.2%	976
Champaign	51.9%	1,226	46.6%	1,099
Clark	58.7%	7,107	40.5%	4,905
Clermont	49.4%	5,642	50.0%	5,710
Clinton	48.5%	909	50.3%	942
Columbiana	52.6%	4,106	45.8%	3,573
Coshocton	53.6%	1,358	44.5%	1,128
Crawford	51.4%	1,344	43.6%	1,141
Cuyahoga	63.2%	125,914	36.3%	72,297
Darke	54.2%	1,246	43.4%	999
Defiance	50.6%	1,507	48.2%	1,435
Delaware	57.9%	9,552	41.8%	6,891
Erie	55.3%	5,449	43.6%	4,299
Fairfield	55.3%	6,408	43.8%	5,074
Fayette	58.3%	760	40.9%	533
Franklin	55.3%	84,654	44.4%	67,855
Fulton	48.7%	1,480	50.3%	1,528
Gallia	47.7%	945	48.8%	966
Geauga	54.0%	4,171	45.5%	3,516
Greene	49.4%	6,672	50.0%	6,759
Guernsey	53.0%	1,440	45.2%	1,228
Hamilton	59.5%	57,687	40.2%	38,956
Hancock	44.9%	2,062	54.2%	2,490
Hardin	52.6%	771	45.7%	669
Harrison	53.2%	818	43.8%	674
Henry	50.0%	977	48.7%	952
Highland	55.2%	1,119	43.1%	873
Hocking	52.3%	1,204	46.0%	1,060
Holmes	48.8%	561	48.5%	558
Huron	50.9%	2,036	47.7%	1,907
Jackson	58.3%	1,010	40.1%	694
Jefferson	54.7%	4,328	42.3%	3,353
Knox	48.5%	1,902	50.6%	1,987
Lake	54.3%	12,506	44.9%	10,351
Lawrence	55.4%	2,654	41.6%	1,994
Licking	53.3%	6,785	45.9%	5,849
Logan	49.6%	1,012	48.9%	998
Lorain	56.1%	21,144	42.9%	16,154
Lucas	56.9%	32,137	42.7%	24,111
Madison	56.8%	1,225	42.8%	923
Mahoning	59.3%	21,000	39.7%	14,066
Marion	56.9%	2,585	42.0%	1,909
Medina	53.1%	7,913	46.3%	6,888
Meigs	49.9%	800	47.2%	757
Mercer	53.5%	1,037	44.4%	860
Miami	53.2%	3,155	45.6%	2,706
Monroe	48.1%	1,191	45.9%	1,138
Montgomery	59.4%	33,352	40.1%	22,538
Morgan	56.2%	566	42.7%	430
Morrow	52.1%	1,164	46.3%	1,035
Muskingum	56.6%	3,066	42.4%	2,299
Noble	53.9%	522	41.7%	404
Ottawa	55.4%	2,566	43.4%	2,012
Paulding	55.8%	723	41.7%	540
Perry	56.7%	1,465	41.4%	1,070
Pickaway	55.6%	2,097	43.2%	1,631
Pike	56.8%	1,336	40.3%	949
Portage	49.0%	8,665	50.2%	8,877
Preble	52.2%	1,176	46.4%	1,046
Putnam	45.3%	811	52.3%	936
Richland	55.5%	5,225	43.3%	4,080
Ross	57.2%	3,582	41.4%	2,595
Sandusky	53.4%	2,866	45.7%	2,456
Scioto	53.7%	3,499	44.6%	2,903
Seneca	49.6%	2,081	49.2%	2,064
Shelby	52.3%	1,284	45.2%	1,110
Stark	56.5%	21,515	42.6%	16,235
Summit	56.6%	38,874	42.9%	29,451
Trumbull	53.9%	17,903	44.4%	14,726
Tuscarawas	51.6%	4,479	46.3%	4,019
Union	50.8%	1,580	48.3%	1,501
Van Wert	51.9%	710	45.4%	621
Vinton	49.5%	515	47.7%	496
Warren	53.3%	6,970	46.3%	6,054
Washington	50.5%	2,557	47.6%	2,411
Wayne	51.3%	3,448	48.0%	3,225
Williams	45.8%	1,007	52.6%	1,156
Wood	45.8%	6,108	53.7%	7,165
Wyandot	49.7%	661	48.6%	647
Total	56.5%	679,266	42.7%	513,549

Analysis

Clinton received a commanding win in the Ohio primary which mirrored her 2008 performance. Clinton won the white vote 53-47 which comprised 74% of the Ohio electorate. She also won the African American vote, 71–28. And while Sanders won men 51-48 and voters under the age of 45 65–34, Clinton won women 63-36 (including white women 61-38 who made up 41% of the electorate, and won both married and unmarried women) and she won older voters 70–29. She swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in the Buckeye State. She also won unions, an important demographic in the industrial Rust Belt, by a margin of 55–45.

In terms of political ideology, Clinton swept all groups: liberals, moderates, and conservatives. She won Democrats 64–35, but lost Independents 66–33 to Sanders.

Clinton swept most counties in the state, winning urban areas 61–38, suburban areas 63–36, and rural areas by a modest 51–48. Clinton won in the Cleveland area 63–35, in Northern Ohio 57–43, in the Ohio Valley and Western Ohio 52–47, in the Columbus area 52–47, and in Cincinnati/Dayton, 55–45.[40]

References

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