2010 Brazilian presidential election

The Brazilian presidential election was held in 2010 with two rounds of balloting. The election determined the successor to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, of the left-wing Workers' Party,[1] who was constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term as he has already served two terms after winning the elections in 2002 and being re-elected in 2006.[2]

2010 Brazilian presidential election
3 October 2010 (first round)
31 October 2010 (second round)
 
Nominee Dilma Rousseff José Serra
Party PT PSDB
Alliance For Brazil to Keep on Changing Brazil Can Do More
Home state Minas Gerais São Paulo
Running mate Michel Temer Indio da Costa
States carried 15 + DF 11
Popular vote 55,752,483 43,711,162
Percentage 56.05% 43.95%
Presidential election results map after the second round of voting: Red denotes states won by Dilma, and Blue denotes those won by Serra.
President before election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
PT

 Elected President

Dilma Rousseff
PT

With the support of Lula, the ruling Workers' Party nominated Dilma Rousseff, a former member and co-founder of the Democratic Labour Party[3] who joined Lula's administration as Ministry of Mines and Energy and later served as presidential Chief of Staff.[4] For her vice presidential running mate, Dilma chose Michel Temer, a member of the centre-right Brazilian Democratic Movement, who served as President of the Chamber of Deputies[5] and previously considered a presidential run in his own right.

The centre-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) nominated José Serra, who resigned as Governor of São Paulo to mount his presidential campaign. A former Mayor of São Paulo who had served as Minister of Health during the Cardoso Administration, Serra had previously been the presidential nominee of his party in 2002.[6] For his vice presidential running mate, Serra chose Indio da Costa, a conservative Federal Deputy from Rio de Janeiro who was a member of the right-wing Democrats party. Da Costa, who became embroiled in controversy over his suggestion that the Workers' Party was linked to the international drug trade, received international comparisons to American politician Sarah Palin.[7][8]

Additionally, Marina Silva, a Senator from the northwestern state of Acre and former Minister of the Environment under Lula, left the ruling Workers Party to mount a candidacy as part of the Green Party. Silva criticized the environmental policies of the Lula Administration and ran a campaign in support of sustainable development, ending corruption, and decriminalizing marijuana.[9] Silva, who would've been the first Black woman to serve as President,[10] saw support from younger voters and managed to win almost 20% of the vote in the first round, well exceeding initial expectations.[11]

Dilma defeated Serra in the second round, becoming the first and only female President of Brazil. The election was noted as being the first time since the inaugural presidential election after the military dictatorship that Lula did not run for president.[12]

Background

The candidates of the two major political groups of the country were Lula's former Chief of Staff, Dilma Rousseff, of the ruling centre-left democratic socialist/social democratic Workers' Party (PT), and São Paulo State former governor, José Serra, from the centre-right[13] opposition coalition formed mainly by the[14][15] Social Democratic Party (PSDB), and the right-wing Democrats (DEM).[16]

Another main candidate was Marina Silva, Lula's former Minister of Environment. She is the candidate for the Green Party (PV), which she joined on late 2009 after leaving the PT, which she helped establishing in the 1980s.[17] She has obtained international recognition as a defender of the Amazon Rainforest, but is less known in her native Brazil, being unable to obtain more support than the other two major candidates in opinion polls.[18]

Lula's potential successors

As Lula was ineligible to run for a third consecutive term due to term limits established by the Brazilian constitution, speculation mounted in the years prior to the election around who might take the mantle of the Workers' Party in his absence. Though Lula was widely popular, many commentators speculated that his likely successors in the PT would fail to generate his populist touch.[19] Polling conducted in Lula's second term found that a slim majority favored amending the constitution to allow Lula to run for a third term, but he opposed such efforts.[20] Two of Lula's key allies tipped as potential successors, former Minister of Finance Antonio Palocci and former presidential Chief of Staff José Dirceu, were harmed by their involvement in the 2005 Mensalão scandal.[21]

In 2008, Lula announced that he wanted a woman to succeed him in the presidency.[22] Former Mayor of São Paulo Marta Suplicy, who served at the helm of Brazil's largest city from 2001 to 2005, was considered to be, along with Dilma, the most likely candidate to lead the PT in the 2010 presidential election.[23][24][25][26] Polling conducted in 2008 found her to be a more popular potential presidential candidate than Dilma.[27] After losing her bid for reelection in 2004,[28] Suplicy was appointed by Lula to the position of Minister of Tourism, which was speculated to be an attempt at elevating her profile for a 2010 presidential bid.[29] In 2008, Suplicy mounted another bid was for Mayor of São Paulo, which was seen as a precursor to a potential presidential bid in 2010;[30] Suplicy lost the election, damaging her political fortunes.[31]

Ciro Gomes, former governor of Ceará and Minister for National Integration during Lula's first cabinet, was a possible candidate for the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). In the years prior to the election, there was some speculation that Lula would support Ciro, a formal rival of his, in the 2010 election if no potential PT candidates appeared viable.[32][33] Following the selection of Dilma as the candidate of the PT, the ruling centre-left group was worried that Ciro's bid could take votes from Rousseff,[14] and thus, on April 27, PSB declined to launch his candidacy in order to support her.[34] Gomes, a populist who had appeared on third place in polls from May 2009 to April 2010, had been a presidential candidate in 1998 and 2002, when he had a poor result after making sexist remarks and struggling to control his temper.[14]

In addition to Dilma, Suplicy, and Gomes, other PT members or allies were mentioned as being potentially tapped by Lula to run in his absence. Senator Aloízio Mercadante of São Paulo, a key power-player in the PT who helped found the party[35] and served as Lula's vice presidential running-mate in the 1994 presidential election,[36] was also mentioned as a possible successor.[37]

Dilma with Marta Suplicy, previously considered a likely candidate of the PT in 2010.

PSDB nomination

José Serra, the Governors of São Paulo, resigned from the position to mount a bid for the presidency as a member of the dominant centre-right Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). Serra previously served as the party's candidate in the 2002 presidential election, where he lost to Lula. Aécio Neves, the popular Governor of Minas Gerais, was considered another potential candidate for the party, and later served as the party's nominee in the 2014 presidential election.[38][39] During the campaign, Serra sought to challenge the perception of the PSDB as an elitist party.[40] Serra's moderate positions on social issues such as abortion and religious issues, where he took a secularist approach compared to many conservative politicians, was noted.[41]

Serra and Aécio Neves, who was speculated as a potential candidate of the PSDB, in 2010.

Efforts by PSOL

Heloísa Helena, a prominent former Senator from Alagoas, considered a presidential candidacy on the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) ticket.[14] Formerly a member of the dominant Workers' Party (PT), Helena was expelled from the PT in 2003 for criticizing the party's move to the centre under the Lula presidency. In the run-up to the election, Helena was considered a serious prospective candidate, being described as the only viable candidate who could potentially abandon the country's market-friendly economic policies.[14] However, she declined to run for president in order to win back her Senate seat; she lost her race for Senate.[42] On June 30, 2010, Plínio de Arruda Sampaio, a longtime politician who was formerly a senior PT official, was chosen to serve as PSOL's presidential nominee at the 2010 convention.

There were speculations that PSOL would form a broad coalition with Marina Silva. As the media printed such news, the United Socialist Workers' Party announced that if this coalition was formed, it would launch the candidacy of its president José Maria de Almeida.[43] However, a resolution approved by members of PSOL determined that the coalition would be formed if PV gave up its alliances with the Lula administration, PSDB, DEM, and neoliberal stances.[42] This resolution would make it very hard for the two parties to ally, since PV is led by José Sarney's son Sarney Filho and Silva herself has said that her candidacy could not be perceived as opposing Lula.[42] Another faction of PV, led by Fernando Gabeira, is explicitly in favor of an alliance with PSDB, which left very few people in the party able to accept the proposal.[42] As Rede Brasil Atual reported, "the coalition move[d] more by the desire of Green Party pre-candidate, Marina Silva, and Socialism and Liberty Party President, Heloísa Helena, than by aspirations of both parties".[44]

Other candidacies

The election also featured five candidates from smaller parties, bringing the number of presidential candidates to a total of nine.[45] They are Ivan Pinheiro from the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB), José Maria de Almeida from the United Socialist Workers' Party (PSTU), Rui Costa Pimenta from the Workers' Cause Party (PCO), José Maria Eymael from the Christian Social Democratic Party (PSDC), and Levy Fidélix from the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party (PRTB).[45] According to the Superior Electoral Court's guidelines, they were not able to participate in televised debates, since their parties were not represented in the lower house of the National Congress.[46]

Former Governor José Serra (PSDB) on the campaign trail in 2010.

Issues

Both candidates offered little threat to the economic stability of the country, but they differed significantly on issues such as fiscal discipline, foreign policy and state intervention.[12] They were both likely to maintain a primary budget surplus to make public debt payments and reduce the ratio of debt to GDP. Some analysts believe Serra would have contained expenditure more effectively.[12] Rousseff, in the other hand, favors a bigger role for state enterprises in the economy, which could reduce participation by private firms in sectors such as banking, oil and gas.[12] Serra, who authorized the sale of Nossa Caixa bank in 2008, is seen as more open to privatization, as well as cuts in the public sector payroll.[14] While past elections brought economic instability, in 2010 neither candidate was expected to stray far from current economic policies.[47]

Rousseff was expected to continue Lula's foreign policy, boosting ties with developing nations, pushing for reform of multilateral bodies and lobbying for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.[12] Serra would likely have cooled ties with Lula's left-wing allies in Latin America, which could affect energy investments in both Bolivia and Venezuela.[12] He could also take a harder line in trade disputes with Argentina and Mercosur.[12] According to Mark Weisbrot, in an op-ed published by The Guardian Unlimited on January 29, 2010, if the centre-right candidate wins the race, it "would really be a huge win for the [U.S.] State Department." He argues that "while U.S. officials under both Bush and Obama have maintained a friendly posture toward Brazil, it is obvious that they deeply resent the changes in Brazilian foreign policy [...] and its independent stances with regard to the Middle East, Iran and elsewhere."[48]

Former presidential Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff at a podium in 2010.

Candidates

Candidates in runoff
# Party/coalition Presidential candidate Political office(s) Vice-Presidential candidate
13
"For Brazil to Keep on Changing"
PT, PMDB, PDT, PCdoB, PSB, PL, PRB, PSC, PTC, PTN
Dilma Rousseff (PT) Chief of Staff of the Presidency 2005–10; Minister of Mines and Energy 2003–05
Michel Temer (PMDB)
45
"Brazil Can Do More"
PSDB, DEM, PPS, PMN, PTdoB, PTB
José Serra (PSDB) Governor of São Paulo 2007–10; Mayor of São Paulo 2005–06; PSDB National President 2003–05; Minister of Health 1998–2002; Minister of Planning 1995–96; Federal Deputy from São Paulo 1987–95
Indio da Costa (DEM)

Candidates failing to make runoff
# Party/coalition Presidential candidate Political office(s) Vice-Presidential candidate
16
United Socialist Workers' Party (PSTU)
José Maria de Almeida (PSTU) PSTU National President since 1993 Cláudia Durans (PSTU)
21
Brazilian Communist Party (PCB)
Ivan Pinheiro (PCB) PCB Secretary General since 2005
Edmilson Costa (PCB)
27
Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC)
José Maria Eymael (PSDC) PSDC National President since 1997; Federal Deputy from São Paulo 1986–95 José Paulo Neto (PSDC)
28
Brazilian Labour Renewal Party (PRTB)
Levy Fidelix (PRTB) PRTB National president since 1994 Luiz Eduardo Duarte (PRTB)
29
Workers' Cause Party (PCO)
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) PCO National President since 1995 Edson Dorta (PCO)
43
Green Party (PV)
Marina Silva (PV) Senator for Acre since 1995; Minister of the Environment 2003–08; State Deputy of Acre 1991–95; City Councillor of Rio Branco 1989–91
Guilherme Leal (PV)
50
Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL)
Plínio de Arruda Sampaio (PSOL) Federal Deputy from São Paulo 1963–64, 1985–86, 1987–91
Hamilton Assis (PSOL)

Campaign

The official campaign began on July 6, 2010.[49] The Superior Electoral Court has accepted the candidacies of all nine applicant candidates. According to the Superior Electoral Court's guidelines, once the official campaign began the candidates are allowed to participate on marches, motorcades, and use sound trucks to ask for votes and distributing leaflets.[49] But they are forbidden to distribute shirts, hats, and gifts such as keyrings and pens.[49] Rallies are allowed, but music concerts are prohibited.[49] The candidates are not allowed to advertise on streetlights, bridges, clubs and other places of common use.[49] Billboard ads are also prohibited, as well as attendance in inauguration of public premises.[49]

Public health

One of the main public health issues debated so far in the election, raised by Rousseff's campaign, is the addiction to crack cocaine.[50] As a response to her campaign, Serra said he will establish clinics to treat addicts.[51] He also said he will hand over 150 medical specialties clinics in two years.[51] Rousseff said she will expand measures currently implemented by the Lula government.[51] She has also advocated the need for national production and distribution of medicines, through increased public investment.[51] Silva has advocated the focus on disease prevention.[51]

Education

Serra has pledged to invest in the infrastructure of primary public schools, while Rousseff said that eradicating illiteracy is her top priority.[51] She has also proposed the creation of a National Articulated System of Education to redesign the mechanisms employed in managing the sector.[51] Silva said her focus is to invest intensively in all levels of formal education. She has also advocated the expansion of technologies access and the adoption of central lines to be addressed by educators.[51]

Welfare

Serra has compromised to retain Bolsa Família, claiming it will be expanded through aids to young people that take vocational education courses.[51] Dilma also said that she will expand the program, defending the "institutional strengthening" of the Ministry of Social Development and Action Against Hunger, which means that the ministry will be responsible for integrating all social policies of the government.[51] Silva defends a "third generation of social welfare", which would be achieved through partnerships with the private sector and the structuring of more educational projects.[51]

Employment

Serra has committed to expand technical schools in order to create more jobs.[51] He has also said that improving the infrastructure of public services will be a tool for creating new jobs.[51] Rousseff has defended the maintenance of the economic policies of the Lula government, but has also promised to hold a tax reform in order to alleviate the expenses of workers.[51] Silva has proposed the creation of green jobs through tax incentives for environmentally friendly businesses, in order to reduce the emission and consumption of carbon dioxide.[51]

Public safety

Although it was not included on his government plan, Serra's main proposal for public safety is the creation of a Ministry of Public Safety.[51] On the other hand, Rousseff has promised to expand the current National Public Security and Citizenship Program to the whole country.[51] She has also proposed the creation of a Constitutional Fund for Public Security, which would give aids in the wages of police officers nationwide.[51] Silva defended the creation of a "new institutional structure for public safety", which would combine the police work with investments in preventive policies.[51]

Debates
Main article: Brazilian presidential election debates, 2010

For the 2010 presidential election, the Superior Electoral Court has approved three televised debates, in addition to an unprecedented internet debate, which will be held by UOL and Folha de S.Paulo on August 18.[52]

According to the Superior Electoral Court's guidelines, the candidates whose parties are not represented in the lower chamber of the National Congress are not able to participate in televised debates.[46] Such candidates are challenging this decision in order to be able to participate on the debates.[46]

The first presidential debate took place on August 5, held by Rede Bandeirantes.[52] The second debate was held on August 18, 2010 by internet portal UOL and newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. It was the first presidential debate broadcast exclusively through internet in the history of the country.

Electoral programme
Presidential debate.

According to the electoral law, all free-to-air television and radio networks must carry two 50-minute time slots a day[53] from August 17 until September 30, 2010.[54] The time allocated to each candidate is based on the number of seats held by the parties comprising their coalition in the Chamber of Deputies.[54] The electoral programs are considered a key campaign tool in Brazil, where TV and radio are the main sources of information for most voters.[53] The free air time on radio and TV also includes candidates contesting races for Governors, Legislative Assemblies, and both houses of the Congress.[53] Parties are also allowed to run six 30-second advertisements per day.[53]

Serra's electoral programs on TV were criticized for focusing too much on public health issues, with Financial Times correspondent Jonathan Wheatley saying that "[one] would think he was running for health minister".[55] In the other hand, Rousseff's programs have been noted for their professionalism and production quality,[55] while Marina Silva's programs were criticized for their lack of cohesion.[56] Journalist Ricardo Noblat commented on his blog that her first TV program seemed more like "a BBC documentary on the environment" than an electoral program.[56] Serra was also the target of criticism by Silva on the UOL/Folha debate for the use of a scenic favela in his program, while São Paulo still has many slums.[57] After the airing of Serra's second program, singer Elba Ramalho, which had one of her songs featured in it, released a note stating that she did not recorded the jingle used by the candidate, and that is not her voice featured in the program.[58] Although she publicly supported Serra in 2002, she stated she would maintain her neutrality in this election.[58] In spite of this declaration, Ramalho decided to support Rousseff on the second round.[59]

Serra's first television program was also the target of ridicule by Twitter users over the unintended double entendre of a phrase he said.[60] In the video, which has been posted over 24 times on Google Video, he cites examples of people which benefited from his former public office experiences.[60] However, in order to exemplify it, he used the preposition como, which can be used as both "as" and the first person inflection of the verb "to eat", that has a negative connotation for "to have sex with".[60]

According to a poll conducted by Census Institute on August 20–22, 42.9% of voters claimed they are watching or listening to the electoral programs on either radio or TV.[61] Dilma had the best electoral programs for 56% of them, while Serra's programs were preferred by 34%.[61] Silva's programs were chosen as the best by only 7.5% of them.[61]

Second round alliances

On October 20, after PSOL instructed its members to vote for either PT's Dilma Rousseff or blank/null in the second round,[62] Heloísa Helena decided to leave the presidency of the party.[63] She felt that the party "lacked identity" with the support to Rousseff.[63] The party's presidential candidate declared that he would vote null, while PSOL's congressmen declared their "critical vote" on Rousseff.[62] Party members were oriented "not to give any votes to Serra".[62]

PCB took a similar stance, saying they will "defeat Serra on the ballots and Dilma on the streets".[64] PSTU, in the other hand, advocated the null voting on the second round.[65] PV held a convention, where most of the 92 voting members decided that the party should stay neutral in the second round.[66] Party members were free to support either of the two candidates, but they were forbidden to use flags or other party symbols.[66] If they did so, they could have been punished with disaffiliation.[66]

On October 14, the Progressive Party, a member of the Lulista coalition bloc in the National Congress which had remained neutral in the first round, decided to support Dilma.[67] Most of its directories and candidates had already supported Rousseff on the first round.[67] The Brazilian Labour Renewal Party also supported Rousseff in the second round. Levy Fidélix posted a photo on his Flickr account where he is accompanied by supporters holding flags of Rousseff's campaign.[68]

Opinion polling
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election

From January 1, 2010 up to the day preceding the election, all polls had to be registered with the Superior Electoral Court.[69]

Opinion polling in 2010

According to polls, Rousseff was most likely to have won the race in the first round with over 50% of the valid voting intentions. She had a rapid increase in her popularity since mid-2009, and thus consolidated her lead against Serra, who had led the polls for over two years. She was given a further boost when incumbent President Lula campaigned on her behalf on her television programmes.[14] Marina Silva was not able to reach more than 10% in the polls, but at the end of the campaign she experienced a rapid boost, and achieved 14% at the last poll. The other candidates had been unable to reach more than 2%. The number of undecided voters and those who declared an intention to vote blank or null was at about 12% according to the last poll.

Election results

Nationwide results
Candidate Party Running mate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Dilma Rousseff PT Michel Temer PMDB 47,651,434 46.91 55,752,529 56.05
José Serra PSDB Indio da Costa DEM 33,132,283 32.61 43,711,388 43.95
Marina Silva PV Guilherme Leal PV 19,636,359 19.33
Plínio de Arruda Sampaio PSOL Hamilton Assis PSOL 886,816 0.87
José Maria Eymael PSDC José Paulo Neto PSDC 89,350 0.09
José Maria de Almeida PSTU Cláudia Durans PSTU 84,609 0.08
Levy Fidelix PRTB Luiz Eduardo Duarte PRTB 57,960 0.06
Ivan Pinheiro PCB Edmilson Costa PCB 39,136 0.04
Rui Costa Pimenta PCO Edson Dorta PCO 12,206 0.01
Invalid/blank votes 9,603,594 − 7,142,025 −
Total 111,193,747 100 106,606,214 100
Registered voters/turnout 135,804,433 81.88 135,804,433 78.50
Popular vote (first round)
Rousseff
 
 46.91%
Serra
 
 32.61%
Silva
 
 19.33%
Others
 
 1.15%
Popular vote (second round)
Rousseff
 
 56.05%
Serra
 
 43.95%

First round
States/districts won by Dilma Rousseff
States/districts won by José Serra
States/districts won by Marina Silva

Second round
States/districts won by Dilma Rousseff
States/districts won by José Serra
By municipality

[70]

██ Municipalities won by Rousseff with less than 65% of the votes
██ Municipalities won by Rousseff with over 65% of the votes
██ Municipalities won by Serra with less than 65% of the votes
██ Municipalities won by Serra with over 65% of the votes
  • Acre
  • Alagoas
  • Amapá
  • Amazonas
  • Bahia
  • Ceará
  • Espírito Santo
  • Federal District
  • Goiás
  • Maranhão
  • Mato Grosso
  • Mato Grosso do Sul
  • Minas Gerais
  • Pará
  • Paraíba
  • Paraná
  • Pernambuco
  • Piauí
  • Rio de Janeiro
  • Rio Grande do Norte
  • Rio Grande do Sul
  • Rondônia
  • Roraima
  • Santa Catarina
  • São Paulo
  • Sergipe
  • Tocantins

Worldwide results
Election results following the first round of voting by expatriate voters.

First round
Countries/territories won by Dilma Rousseff
Countries/territories won by José Serra
Countries/territories won by Marina Silva

Second round
Election results following the second round of voting by expatriate voters.
Countries/territories won by Dilma Rousseff
Countries/territories won by José Serra

Voter demographics
Demographic subgroup Rousseff Serra % of
total vote
Total vote 56 44 100
Gender
Men 60 40 48
Women 53 47 52
Age
16–24 years old 54 46 18
25–34 years old 57 43 24
35-44 years old 59 41 20
45-59 years old 58 42 23
60 and older 53 47 15
Education
Less than high school 62 38 45
High school diploma 54 46 39
Bachelor’s degree or more 45 55 16
Family income
Under 2x min wage 62 38 44
2-5x min wage 55 45 36
5-10x min wage 50 50 11
Over 10x min wage 43 57 9
Region
Southeast 53 47 45
South 47 53 16
Northeast 69 31 25
North + Central-West 55 45 14

Source: http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2013/05/02/intvoto_pres_30102010.pdf </ref>

International reaction

Analysis

One of the important outcomes of the election was seen as the role of new media.[102] Al Jazeera English also analysed the difference between the Brazil and Myanmar elections where the former was a "defeat for big media" and the latter saw a media clampdown in the run-up to the election.[103]

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