Pasokification

Pasokification is the decline of centre-left social-democratic political parties in European and other Western countries during the 2010s, often accompanied by the rise of nationalist, left-wing and right-wing populist alternatives.[1][2][3][4][5][6] In Europe, the share of votes for such parties was at its 70-year lowest in 2015.[7]

The decline of PASOK's popularity in the 2010s led to the creation of the term Pasokification.

The term originates from the Greek party PASOK, which saw a declining share of the vote in national elections––from 43.9% in 2009 to 13.2% in May 2012, to 12.3% in June 2012 and 4.7% in 2015––due to its poor handling of the Greek government-debt crisis and implementation of harsh austerity measures.[8][9] Simultaneously, the left-wing anti-austerity Syriza party saw a growth in vote share and influence.[10] Since PASOK's decline, the term has been applied to similar declines for other social-democratic and Third Way parties.[11]

In Europe

Austria

The Social Democratic Party of Austria lost 5.7 percentage points in the 2019 Austrian legislative election, resulting in a share of 21.2%, the party's worst election result since World War II.

Czech Republic

The Czech Social Democratic Party lost much of its support in the 2017 Czech general election, falling from 50 to just 15 seats out of 200.

France

The Socialist Party has suffered a significant decline since winning the 2012 French presidential election. In the 2015 regional elections, it reached only the 3rd largest vote-share during the first round, having previously placed either first or second, and by 2016, then-President François Hollande's approval rating was just 4%. In the 2017 presidential election, the Socialist Party's candidate Benoît Hamon suffered an historically poor result, placing fifth with 6.4% of the vote.

In the 2017 legislative election, the Socialist Party suffered the worst losses of any part, with the Socialist Party-led centre-left faction receiving 9.5% of the vote during the first round, winning only 45 seats overall.[12] In the 2019 European Parliament election in France, the party allied with a number of minor centre-left parties, but still suffered major losses. Placed sixth, it became the smallest party to win seats, receiving only 6.2% of the vote (a decline of 10.7% from 2014). It was surpassed by both Europe Ecology – The Greens and the left-wing populist movement of La France Insoumise.

Germany

Support for the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) started to fade away by the late 2000s, especially in the 2009 German federal election when it achieved just 23% of the votes, its lowest result in post-World War II history. This decline has been attributed to its acceptance of Third Way and neoliberal policies by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his allies, e.g. Hartz IV.

The party achieved its worst national result since 1890 in the 2017 federal election, winning just 20.5% of the vote.[11] After the party entered into a grand coalition government with the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), it suffered a string of electoral setbacks at the Bavarian and Hessian state elections in 2018, losing its status as the second-largest party in each state.[13] The SPD won just 15.8% of the vote in the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, falling to third place in a national election for the first time in its history, behind the CDU and Alliance 90/The Greens.

Greece

PASOK was once the dominant centre-left party in Greece. PASOK received just 4.8% and 6.3% of the vote in the 2015 January and September Greek legislative elections respectively, due to its enforcement of harsh austerity measures that led to massive social unrest and economic collapse, with much of its former electorate going to the anti-austerity Syriza. Following a series of austerity and bailout packages, implemented despite rejection in the 2015 Greek bailout referendum, resulting in several splits within the party, Syriza was defeated in the 2019 legislative election while the social democratic alliance KINAL rebounded to 8.10% and gained five seats.

Hungary

The Hungarian Socialist Party lost significant support in the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary election after a series of corruption scandals affected Ferenc Gyurcsány's government. It suffered defeat again in the 2014 and 2018 parliamentary elections, falling from 29 to 16 seats in the latter.

Iceland

The Social Democratic Alliance received 5.7% of the vote in the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary election, down from 29.8% in the 2009 parliamentary election. This is their lowest support in any election since the alliance's predecessor, the Social Democratic Party, first ran for election in the August 1916 parliamentary election. While the Social Democratic Alliance lost support during the 2016 election, the Left-Green Movement increased its vote share by 5%, becoming the second-largest party in Iceland's Althing.

Ireland

The Labour Party received 6.6% of the vote in the 2016 Irish general election and fell from 33 to 7 seats, down from 19.5% in the 2011 general election. This fell further to 4.4% in the 2020 general election - their worst result since 1987 - while the left-wing Sinn Féin became the most voted party since 1922.[14]

Italy

The Democratic Party (PD) started to lose support by the late 2000s in the Po Valley. The first election in which the Democratic Party lost to a more radical party was the 2010 Venetian regional election (20.34% of the vote, compared to the 35.16% obtained by Lega Nord). The party's 18.8% vote share in the 2018 Italian general election meant it lost 185 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 58 seats in the Senate,[15] falling from the largest to the third-largest faction in the Italian parliament. This was particularly dramatic considering that the party received more than 40% of vote just four year prior, in the 2014 European Parliament election in Italy, and is commonly attributed to its enforcement of austerity measures, a poor economic recovery and a failed attempt to move towards a two-party system in the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. However, the party still came in second place in the popular vote[16] and entered government in September 2019 with the Five Star Movement after the collapse of the previous Conte I Cabinet.

Lithuania

The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania received 9.59% of the vote in the 2020 Lithuanian parliamentary election, down from 15.04% in 2016 and 18.37% in 2012.

Luxembourg

The Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) received 20.2% of the vote in the 2013 Luxembourg general election, their lowest support since the 1931 general election. This decreased further to 17.60% in the 2018 general election, ranking third for number of seats for the first time since 1999. However, the LSAP has been part of Luxembourg's coalition governments since the 2013 election.

Netherlands

The social-democratic Labour Party received 5.7% of the vote in the 2017 Dutch general election, down from 24.8% in the 2012 general election.

Spain

The 2015 Spanish general election produced the worst results for the social-democratic Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) since the Spanish transition to democracy in the 1970s, as the party received 22% of the vote, losing support to Unidas Podemos. The PSOE returned to government following the 2018 vote of no confidence in the government of Mariano Rajoy and, in the April 2019 general election, became the largest party since 2008 and obtained its best result since 2011 with 28.7% of the vote.

Sweden

The Swedish Social Democratic Party averaged 45.3% of the votes in half of all general elections between the mid-1930s and mid-1980s, making it one of the most successful political parties in the history of the liberal democratic world.[17] In the late 1990s, the party began to receive just under 40% of the votes. After the 2010 Swedish general election, their vote share dramatically declined, some of these votes being lost to the right-wing populist party Sweden Democrats.[18][19][20] In the 2018 general election, the Social Democrats' only received 28.3% of the votes, its lowest level since 1908.

United Kingdom
See also: Politics of Scotland

Scottish Labour held the majority of Scotland's Westminster seats from the 1964 United Kingdom general election until the 2015 United Kingdom general election in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party (SNP) won 56 of the 59 available seats. The SNP then fell to 35 seats at the 2017 general election in Scotland and rose to 48 in the 2019 general election in Scotland.

The national Labour Party has responded to the decline of centre-left political parties across Europe by turning to the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn in order to remain relevant in European politics. Corbyn's leadership has been characterized as more left-wing than that of his predecessors of the New Labour era.[21] Due to unsuccessful results, Corbyn was then replaced. Additionally, Scottish Labour had lost support since the creation of the Scottish Parliament. The party got 33.6% of the votes in the 1999 Scottish Parliament election and 19.1% of the votes in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election. This allowed the SNP to overtake Scottish Labour by 2015.

Outside of Europe

Israel

The Israeli Labor Party and its predecessor Mapai were dominant in Israeli politics from the founding of the nation in 1948 to 1977. Since then, its popularity has decreased and currently only holds 6 seats after receiving 4.43% of the vote in the April 2019 Israeli legislative election. Opinion polls in late 2020 seemingly show the party declining further and it is in acute danger of altogether disappearing and gaining no seats at all.

Sri Lanka

The social-democratic Sri Lanka Freedom Party lost the 2015 Sri Lankan presidential election to party defector Maithripala Sirisena, who campaigned on a broad alliance lead by the United National Party against the decade-long rule of the Freedom Party's leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, who faced allegations of corruption and nepotism. The following 2015 Sri Lankan parliamentary election saw the formation of a national government, which soon faced major infighting. Rajapaksa went on to form a new party, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), and successfully contested several local government elections. gaining 40.47% of the votes; the Sri Lanka Freedom Party only gained 12.10%, while the United National Party gained 29.42%.

The SLPP nominated Rajapaksa's younger brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa for the 2019 Sri Lankan presidential election, who gained 52.25% against the United National Party candidate Sajith Premadasa (who gained 41.99%). Gotabaya Rajapaksa contested on a pro-nationalistic, economic development and national security platform. Sri Lanka Freedom Party had hoped to have its own candidate for the presidential election, but eventually opted to support the SLPP.[22]

References
  1. "Why Labour is obsessed with Greek politics". The Economist. 30 June 2018.
  2. "Western Europe's center-left parties continue to lose ground". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  3. "The collapse of Europe's mainstream centre left". www.newstatesman.com. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  4. Takenaka, Masaharu (2018-09-12). "Why is the center-left receding worldwide?". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  5. Henley, Jon. "2017 and the curious demise of Europe's centre-left". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  6. Berman, Sheri (2017-10-02). "Opinion | The Disastrous Decline of the European Center-Left". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  7. "Rose thou art sick". The Economist. 2016-04-02. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2020-01-02.
  8. Gary Younge (22 May 2017). "Jeremy Corbyn has defied his critics to become Labour's best hope of survival". The Guardian.
  9. Mark Lowen (5 April 2013). "How Greece's once-mighty Pasok party fell from grace". BBC News. Retrieved 20 June 2020.
  10. "Rose thou art sick". The Economist. 2 April 2016.
  11. "Germany's SPD may have signed its death warrant". New Statesman. 8 February 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2018.
  12. "Montebourg: "Le PS est sur la route du Pasok grec".
  13. "Europe's centre-left parties poll below 20% for the first time ahead of EU elections". The Independent. 30 October 2018. Retrieved 30 October 2018.
  14. MacGuill, Dan. "Labour just had the worst election in its 104-year history". The Journal. Retrieved 5 August 2017.
  15. "Camera 04/03/2018" (in Italian). Dipartimento per gli Affari Interni e Territoriali. 4 March 2018. Retrieved 23 February 2019.
  16. "Sondaggi elettorali, continua la crescita del Pd: superato il Movimento 5 Stelle". Fanpage.
  17. Göran Therborn, "A Unique Chapter in the History of Democracy: The Swedish Social Democrats", in. K. Misgeld et al. (eds.), Creating Social Democracy, University Park Pa., Penn State University Press, 1996
  18. Kelly, Ben (September 8, 2018). "Sweden Democrats: How a nationalist, anti-immigrant party took root in a liberal Nordic haven". The Independent.
  19. Ahlander, Johan (February 7, 2019). "Populist Sweden Democrats ditch 'Swexit' ahead of EU elections". Reuters.
  20. Orange, Richard (November 15, 2018). "Swedish Moderate-led council to ban halal meat in deal with populists". The Local.
  21. "Why Labour is obsessed with Greek politics". 30 June 2018 – via The Economist.
  22. Hashim, Asad; Wipulasena, Aanya (15 Nov 2019). "In Sri Lanka, fear and uncertainty ahead of presidential vote". Aljazeera. Retrieved 9 December 2019.
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