Opinion polling for the 2005 United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 5 May 2005. The previous general election was held on 7 June 2001.

Details of opinion polling

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and Feb 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Election battleground

The 2001 general election, which had the lowest turnout of any general election for more than 80 years, saw the Labour government of Tony Blair re-elected with a second successive landslide majority, which left the political landscape almost completely unchanged. William Hague resigned as leader of a Conservative opposition which failed to make any real progress from its heavy defeat in 1997, and was succeeded by Iain Duncan Smith.

The Labour government remained ascendant in the opinion polls, but its popularity began to suffer from Mar 2003 as a result of Tony Blair's decision to send British forces to collaborate with the American forces in their invasion of Iraq, which led to the end of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, as well as his eventual capture, trial and execution by a new democratic Iraqi government. However, there was a public outcry that the invasion of Iraq failed to uncover weapons of mass destruction which had long been believed to exist in Iraq. By the summer of 2003, several opinion polls were showing a narrow Conservative lead, and the Liberal Democrats were also shown to be enjoying a surge in support, largely seen to be the result of Charles Kennedy's anti-war stance.

However, opinion polls showed that Iain Duncan Smith was not a popular choice with voters as a potential prime minister, and there was also the fact that Labour still had a huge parliamentary majority, while the Tories would have to almost double their share of seats in parliament to form a majority. Duncan Smith was ousted as leader in Nov 2003 following a vote of no confidence by his own party, was succeeded uncontested by the former Home Secretary Michael Howard, who helped the Tories keep close behind Labour in the opinion polls and oversaw strong showings in the local council and European parliament by-elections of 2004.

A general election was called for 5 May 2005, with Labour winning for a third successive time, but its majority dropped from 160 seats to 66 seats, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoying substantial gains.

Tony Blair had already decided that the 2005 general election would be the last he would contest as Labour Party leader if re-election was achieved. Michael Howard announced his resignation shortly afterwards, feeling that he was too old to lead the party into the next general election (knowing that it was unlikely to be held until he was almost 60 years old), and Charles Kennedy stepped down eight months later following revelations about his personal life.

Graphical summary

  Labour

  Conservatives

  Liberal Democrats

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was undertaken, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties.

2005

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
5 May 2005	2005 Election Results (GB only)	–	36.2%	33.2%	22.7%	7.9%	3.0%
3–4 May 2005	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	1,164	38%	33%	23%	6%	5%
2–3 May 2005	Populus/The Times	1,174	38%	32%	21%	8%	6%
1–3 May 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,178	38%	32%	22%	8%	6%
29 Apr – 2 May 2005	Populus/The Times	866	41%	27%	23%	9%	14%
27–30 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	863	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
25–28 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	853	40%	31%	22%	7%	9%
24–27 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	841	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
24–26 Apr 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,209	40%	32%	21%	5%	8%
23–26 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	835	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
22–25 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	831	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
21–24 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	819	41%	33%	19%	7%	8%
20–23 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	798	41%	32%	20%	7%	9%
19–22 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times Online	798	41%	33%	20%	6%	8%
18–21 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	806	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
17–20 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	836	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
17–19 Apr 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,163	39%	33%	22%	7%	6%
16–19 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	863	39%	33%	21%	7%	6%
14–17 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	586	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
10–12 Apr 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,169	39%	33%	22%	7%	6%
1–3 Apr 2005	ICM/Guardian	973	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
1–3 Apr 2005	Populus/The Times	812	37%	35%	19%	9%	2%
18–20 Mar 2005	ICM/Guardian	716	40%	32%	20%	7%	8%
4–6 Mar 2005	Populus/The Times	831	39%	32%	20%	9%	7%
18–20 Feb 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,013[2]	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
4–6 Feb 2005	Populus/The Times	814	41%	32%	18%	9%	9%
21–23 Jan 2005	ICM/Guardian	1,000[2]	38%	31%	21%	9%	6%
7–9 Jan 2005	Populus/The Times	848	38%	33%	20%	9%	5%

2004

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
16–19 Dec 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,002[2]	40%	31%	21%	7%	8%
3–5 Dec 2004	Populus/The Times	826	37%	33%	20%	10%	4%
12–14 Nov 2004	ICM/Guardian	830	38%	30%	22%	10%	8%
22–24 Oct 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,011	37%	31%	23%	9%	6%
21–23 Sep 2004	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2033	36%	34%	21%	9%	2%
17–19 Sep 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,005	36%	32%	22%	10%	4%
2–5 Sep 2004	Populus/The Times	608	31%	30%	26%	13%	1%
13–15 Aug 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,005	36%	33%	22%	9%	3%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2004	Populus/The Times	570	32%	32%	24%	12%	Tie
16–18 Jul 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,007	35%	30%	25%	10%	5%
2–3 Jul 2004	Populus/The Times	556	33%	29%	24%	14%	4%
18–20 Jun 2004	Ipsos MORI/Financial Times	966	32%	27%	22%	19%	6%
11–13 Jun 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,009	34%	31%	22%	13%	3%
10 Jun 2004	2004 European election
4–6 Jun 2004	Populus/The Times	589	31%	29%	22%	18%	3%
20–23 May 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,001	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
7–9 May 2004	Populus/The Times	578	32%	36%	22%	10%	4%
16–18 Apr 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,002	38%	33%	22%	6%	5%
10–11 Mar 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,014	37%	35%	21%	7%	2%
5–7 Mar 2004	Populus/The Times	573	36%	34%	22%	8%	2%
20–22 Feb 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,006	36%	34%	21%	8%	2%
6–8 Feb 2004	Populus/The Times	580	36%	31%	25%	8%	5%
16–18 Jan 2004	ICM/Guardian	1,007	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
2–4 Jan 2004	Populus/The Times	566	40%	35%	18%	7%	5%

2003

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
12–14 Dec 2003	ICM/Guardian[3]	1,001	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
5–7 Dec 2003	Populus/The Times	557	35%	33%	22%	10%	2%
14–16 Nov 2003	ICM/Guardian[3]	1,002	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
7–9 Nov 2003	Populus/The Times	554	35%	31%	24%	10%	4%
6 Nov 2003	Michael Howard elected Conservative Party leader
17–19 Oct 2003	ICM/Guardian[3]	1,004	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
3–5 Oct 2003	Populus/The Times	524	36%	28%	27%	9%	8%
23–25 Sep 2003	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2306	31%	32%	30%	7%	1%
19–21 Sep 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,002	35%	30%	28%	8%	5%
5–6 Sep 2003	Populus/The Times	511	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
15–17 Aug 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,001	37%	32%	22%	9%	5%
1–3 Aug 2003	Populus/The Times	564	35%	33%	25%	7%	2%
22–24 Jul 2003	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2219	34%	37%	22%	7%	3%
18–20 Jul 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,003	36%	34%	22%	9%	2%
20–22 Jun 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,001	38%	34%	21%	7%	4%
13–15 Jun 2003	Populus/The Times	513	36%	34%	21%	9%	2%
16–18 May 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,000	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
2–4 Mar 2003	Populus/The Times	565	35%	34%	23%	8%	1%
22–24 Apr 2003	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2390	40%	32%	21%	7%	8%
17–19 Apr 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,000	42%	30%	21%	7%	12%
26–27 Mar 2003	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	2282	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
19-20 Mar 2003	The 2003 invasion of Iraq begins
10–12 Mar 2003	Populus/The Times	540	42%	29%	22%	7%	13%
14–16 Mar 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,002	38%	32%	24%	6%	6%
7–9 Mar 2003	Populus/The Times	498	34%	34%	24%	8%	Tie
14–16 Feb 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,003	39%	31%	22%	8%	8%
7–9 Feb 2003	Populus/The Times	555	35%	34%	25%	6%	1%
28–30 Jan 2003	YouGov/Daily Telegraph	1949	36%	32%	24%	8%	4%
17–19 Jan 2003	ICM/Guardian	1,002	43%	30%	21%	6%	13%
3–5 Jan 2003	Populus/The Times	565	38%	31%	25%	6%	7%

2002

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
13–15 Dec 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,006	41%	27%	23%	8%	14%
15–17 Nov 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,000	42%	29%	22%	7%	13%
18–20 Oct 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,001	43%	32%	20%	6%	11%
11–13 Oct 2002	Populus/The Times	1,001	42%	30%	21%	6%	12%
20–22 Sep 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,000	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
5–7 Sep 2002	Populus/The Times	610	39%	33%	21%	6%	6%
23–25 Aug 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,003	41%	32%	21%	6%	9%
26–27 Jul 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,002	42%	33%	20%	4%	9%
21–23 Jun 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,002	42%	32%	20%	7%	10%
17–19 May 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,003	42%	34%	19%	5%	8%
20–21 Apr 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,000	45%	29%	18%	8%	16%
15–17 Mar 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,001	43%	34%	17%	6%	9%
15–17 Feb 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,003	47%	30%	18%	5%	17%
18–20 Jan 2002	ICM/Guardian	1,003	45%	30%	19%	6%	15%

2001

Date(s) Conducted	Polling Organisation/Client	Sample Size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
14–16 Dec 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,000	44%	29%	20%	7%	15%
16–18 Nov 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,004	46%	29%	19%	6%	17%
19–20 Oct 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,000	47%	29%	19%	5%	18%
14–16 Sep 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,007	46%	29%	20%	5%	17%
6 Nov 2003	Iain Duncan Smith elected Conservative Party leader
17–19 Aug 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,004	46%	30%	17%	7%	16%
13–14 Jul 2001	ICM/Guardian	1,001	46%	30%	18%	6%	16%
31 May – 1 Jun 2001	Ipsos MORI/The Sunday Telegraph	1,021	50%	27%	17%	6%	23%
7 Jun 2001	2001 Election Results	–	42.0%	32.7%	18.8%	6.5%	9.3%

References

1. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
2. The number of responses used to calculate the voting intention was not provided; the total number of participants in the poll is therefore listed.
3. The responses to the questions on voting intention are not included in this document; they have therefore instead been taken from Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984.

External links

• Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984