43rd Ontario general election

The 43rd Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[2] The Legislative Assembly of Ontario can be dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or if the Premier triggers a snap election. Both scenarios, however, are extremely unlikely. Since the current government has a majority, it is a near-certainty that any non-confidence vote would not pass. In terms of an unexpected snap election, on October 5 2020, Ontario MPP's voted unanimously in favour of a motion stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022.[3][4]

43rd Ontario general election

On or before June 2, 2022
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Steven Del Duca Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009 March 7, 2020 Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre Running in Vaughan—Woodbridge[1] Last election 76 seats, 40.50% 40 seats, 33.56% 7 seats, 19.59% Current seats 71 40 8 Seats needed 23 55   NBP Leader Mike Schreiner Jim Karahalios Party Green New Blue Leader since May 16, 2009 November 8, 2020 Leader's seat Guelph Running in TBA Last election 1 seat, 4.60% New party Current seats 1 1 Seats needed 62 62
Incumbent Premier Doug Ford Progressive Conservative

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2018	Current
	Progressive Conservative	Doug Ford	76	71
	New Democratic	Andrea Horwath	40	40
	Liberal	Steven Del Duca	7	8
	Green	Mike Schreiner	1	1
	New Blue	Jim Karahalios	0	1
	Independent			3
Vacant				0
Total			124	124

Note that for purposes of the administration of the Assembly, parties with fewer than 12 seats are not recognized, and their members are treated as independent MPPs.[5]

Timeline

2018

• June 7: The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario under Doug Ford wins a majority government in the 42nd Ontario general election, with Andrea Horwath's New Democrats forming the Official Opposition. After leading the party to its worst result in the party's history, outgoing Premier Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party but remained MPP for Don Valley West.[6]
• June 14: Ottawa South MPP John Fraser is named interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[7]
• June 29: Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario.[8]
• July 11: Wellington—Halton Hills MPP Ted Arnott is elected Speaker by secret ballot.[9]
• November 2: Former interim Progressive Conservative leader Jim Wilson resigns as Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade and from the Progressive Conservative caucus due to allegations of sexual misconduct.[10]
• November 29: Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Progressive Conservative MPP Amanda Simard leaves the Progressive Conservative caucus after Premier Ford eliminated the province's French language services commissioner and cancelled plans for a new French-language university.[11]

2019

• February 21: Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Progressive Conservative MPP Randy Hillier is suspended from the caucus indefinitely for allegedly making disrespectful comments to parents of children with autism.[12] Hillier was officially expelled from the PC caucus on March 15, a day after he released a statement via Twitter suggesting his suspension was due to tensions between himself and the premier's senior advisors.[13]
• July 31: Ottawa—Vanier Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosier resigns her seat to become principal of Massey College.[14]
• September 20: Orléans Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde resigns her seat in the provincial legislature to run as the Liberal candidate in Orléans for the 2019 federal election.[15]

2020

• January 16: Glengarry—Prescott—Russell independent MPP Amanda Simard crosses the floor to join the Liberal caucus.[16]
• February 27: Liberals Stephen Blais and Lucille Collard win byelections in the ridings of Orléans and Ottawa—Vanier, respectively.[17]
• March 7: Former Vaughan MPP and cabinet minister Steven Del Duca is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.[18]
• July 21: Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios is ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus for voting against the government's bill, Bill 195, making her an independent MPP.[19]
• October 5: MPP's vote unanimously in favour of a motion introduced by MPP Mitzie Hunter stating that the government will not call an election prior to the fixed election date in 2022. [20][21]

2021

• January 15: York Centre MPP Roman Baber is ejected from the Progressive Conservative caucus for his opposition to the provinces lockdown and restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, making him an independent MPP.[22]
• January 18: Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios, forms the New Blue Party of Ontario caucus in the Legislative Assembly.[23]

Candidates

See also: Candidates of the 43rd Ontario general election

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral District	Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee			New MPP
Don Valley West		Kathleen Wynne[24]	–
Simcoe-Grey		Jim Wilson[25]	–
Thornhill		Gila Martow[26]	–

Opinion polls

Summary of poll results given below from the 2018 election results. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).

Polling organisation	Last date of polling	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Polling type	Sample size	Margin of error	Lead
Campaign Research	January 31, 2021		44	25	21	8	2	Online	1,427	±2.6%	19
Abacus Data	January 12, 2021	HTML	34	25	29	8	3	Online	793	±3.48%	5
Mainstreet Research	December 5, 2020	PDF	46	23	20	6	4	IVR	1,014	±2.94%	23
Campaign Research	December 3, 2020	PDF	45	20	24	8	3	Online	1,001	±3%	21
Angus Reid	November 30, 2020	HTML	42	28	22	5	3	Online	933	±1.4%	14
Abacus Data	October 30, 2020	HTML	36	25	29	7	3	Online	1,000	±3.1%	7
Abacus Data	October 12, 2020	HTML	36	29	26	6	2	Online	1,000	±3.1%	7
Campaign Research	September 3, 2020	HTML	48	22	24	6	2	Online	940	±3%	24
Angus Reid	September 1, 2020	PDF	45	28	22	4	1	Online	1,026	±3%	17
Campaign Research	August 13, 2020	HTML	41	23	26	8	3	Online	1,031	±3%	15
Innovative Research Group	July 20, 2020	PDF	36	18	37	8	1	Online	974		1
Campaign Research	July 10, 2020	HTML	45	20	27	7	1	Online	1,395	±3%	18
Innovative Research Group	June 23, 2020	PDF	31	21	39	9	1	Online	838		8
Mainstreet Research	June 7, 2020	HTML	42	23	28	6	2	IVR	1,068	±3%	14
Campaign Research	June 2, 2020	PDF	44	22	27	6	2	Online	1,512	±2.5%	17
Innovative Research Group	June 1, 2020	PDF	33	20	38	9	0	Online	698		5
Angus Reid	May 24, 2020	HTML	43	26	25	6	1	Online	1,061		17
Abacus Data	May 22, 2020	HTML	36	19	38	5	2	Online	597	±4.1%	2
Innovative Research Group	May 5, 2020	PDF	34	18	39	7	1	Online	791		5
EKOS	March 26, 2020	HTML	31.5	17.9	40.4	7.1	3.1	IVR	774	±3.5%	8.9
Mainstreet Research	March 20, 2020	HTML	33.1	23.2	33.0	6.9	3.8	IVR	1,017	±2.73%	0.1
7 March 2020	Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research	March 5, 2020	PDF	32	28	28	10	2	Online	1,144	±2.9%	4
Angus Reid	February 28, 2020	PDF	36	31	24	8	1	Online	1,051	±3.0%	5
Campaign Research	February 26, 2020	PDF	32	28	29	9	3	Online	1,003	±3.1%	3
Campaign Research	February 9, 2020	PDF	30	26	30	11	3	Online	1,322	±2.5%	0
EKOS	January 19, 2020	HTML	31.1	21.2	36.2	9.1	2.0	IVR	634	±3.9%	5.1
Pollara	January 11, 2020	PDF	29	27	33	9	2	Online	2,198	±2.1%	4
EKOS	December 10, 2019	PDF	29.9	24.4	32.4	9.4	3.9	IVR	811	±3.4%	2.5
Campaign Research	September 9, 2019	PDF	32	27	28	11	2	Online	957	±3.17%	4
Corbett Communications	August 16, 2019	PDF	30	28	30	11	2	Online	1,099	±3.0%	0
Corbett Communications	July 10, 2019	PDF	28	26	28	15	3	Online	936	±3.0%	0
Corbett Communications	June 6, 2019	PDF	32	27	26	13	1	Online	1,555	±3.0%	5
Mainstreet Research	May 22, 2019	HTML	22.4	24.2	39.9	11.7	1.8	IVR	996	±3.1%	15.7
Ipsos	May 21, 2019	HTML	30	29	32	10[lower-alpha 1]		Online	1,000	±3.5%	2
Corbett Communications	May 3, 2019	PDF	35	25	27	12	1	Online	1,836	±2.4%	8
Pollara	May 1, 2019	PDF	30	31	26	11	1	Online	1,527	±2.5%	1
Mainstreet Research	March 22, 2019	HTML	34.4	26.6	26.0	9.4	3.6	IVR	1,290	±2.73%	7.8
Innovative Research Group	January 24, 2019	PDF	33	23	36	7	1	Online	751		3
Mainstreet Research	January 17, 2019	HTML	41.4	27.0	22.6	7.0	2.2	IVR	1,127	±2.92%	14.4
EKOS	December 3, 2018	PDF	34.3	26.1	28.0	9.4	2.3	IVR	1,025	±3.1%	6.3
Campaign Research	November 9, 2018	HTML	34	25	32	7	2	Online	1,830	±2.3%	2
Mainstreet Research	November 7, 2018	HTML	42.2	26.5	21.3	6.4	3.5	IVR	1,229	±2.79%	15.7
Innovative Research Group	October 28, 2018	PDF	35	25	32	7	1	Online	1,628		3
Abacus Data	October 1, 2018	HTML	36	29	24	8	3	Online	1,500		7
Mainstreet Research	July 17, 2018	HTML	41.7	27.8	21.3	6.7	2.5	IVR	1,861	±2.27%	13.9
29 June 2018	Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group	June 21, 2018	PDF	37	36	19	7	2	Telephone	607	±4.0%	1
14 June 2018	John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018	Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
2018 election	June 7, 2018		40.50	33.56	19.59	4.60	1.75				6.94

Notes

1. Includes the Ontario Green Party.

References

1. Benzie, Robert (March 7, 2020). "Vaughan's Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership on first ballot". YorkRegion.com. Torstar. Metroland Media. Retrieved April 19, 2020.
2. Ferguson, Rob (October 19, 2016). "Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
3. "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford". Toronto Star. September 28, 2020.
4. "Hansard, October 5, 2020". www.ola.org. October 5, 2020.
5. https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ontario-government-to-raise-threshold-for-official-party-status-1.4175699
6. Janus, Andrea (June 7, 2018). "Kathleen Wynne ready to 'pass the torch,' quits as Ontario Liberal leader". CBC News. Retrieved June 15, 2018.
7. "Ottawa-area MPP John Fraser selected interim Ontario Liberal leader". CBC News. June 14, 2018. Retrieved June 15, 2018.
8. Crawley, Mike (June 29, 2018). "Doug Ford's 'truly humbled' as new Ontario PC government sworn in at Queen's Park". CBC News. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
9. "Ted Arnott new Speaker of the Ontario Legislative Assembly". Toronto Star. July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 11, 2018.
10. Goodfield, Kayla (November 7, 2018). "Ford confirms PC MPP Jim Wilson resigned over sexual misconduct allegation". CP24. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
11. "MPP Amanda Simard leaving PCs, will sit as an independent". CBC News. November 29, 2018. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
12. "MPP Randy Hillier suspended from Ontario PC caucus after autism debate". CBC News. February 21, 2019. Retrieved February 21, 2019.
13. "Randy Hillier expelled from Ontario PC caucus". CBC News. March 15, 2019. Retrieved March 15, 2019.
14. "Liberal MPP Nathalie Des Rosiers officially resigns". Ottawa Citizen. July 31, 2019. Retrieved July 31, 2019.
15. "Liberals nominate Lalonde in Orléans riding". Ottawa Citizen. September 19, 2019.
16. Ferguson, Rob; Benzie, Robert (January 16, 2020). "Amanda Simard joins Liberals a year after quitting Doug Ford's Tories over French-language cuts". Toronto Star.
17. Holder, Gord (February 27, 2020). "Liberals hold Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa-Orleans seats in provincial byelections". Ottawa Citizen. Archived from the original on March 8, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
18. Stone, Laura (March 7, 2020). "Steven Del Duca wins Ontario Liberal leadership race". Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on March 8, 2020.
19. "Cambridge MPP Belinda Karahalios booted from PC caucus after voting against COVID-19 emergency bill". CBC News. July 21, 2020.
20. "Promise you won't call an early election, Liberals tell Doug Ford". Toronto Star. September 28, 2020.
21. "Hansard, October 5, 2020". www.ola.org. October 5, 2020.
22. "Premier Doug Ford Turfs MPP Roman Baber from Tory Caucus for Opposing COVID-19 Lockdown". Toronto Star. January 15, 2021.
23. Belinda C. Karahalios, Ontario Legislative Assembly, retrieved January 27, 2021
24. Herhalt, Chris (October 20, 2020). "Former Premier Kathleen Wynne not running again in 2022". cp24.com. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
25. Benzie, Robert (September 24, 2020). "MPP Jim Wilson won't seek re-election after ejection from PC caucus". thestar.com.
26. Nanji, Sabrina (December 9, 2020). "'Not an option': Gila Martow won't run for PCs in 2022, whether or not she makes the jump to federal politics". politicstoday.news.

External links

• Elections Ontario