43rd Manitoba general election

The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on or before 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives will attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2019 election.

43rd Manitoba general election

On or before October 3, 2023
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017 Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38% Current seats 36 18 Seats needed 11   Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome Party Liberal Green Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014 Leader's seat St. Boniface No seat Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24% Current seats 3 0 Seats needed 26 29
Incumbent Premier Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative

Legislature summary

Manitoba Legislature

Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2019	Current	Next	+/-	Votes	%	+/-
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	–	36	36
	New Democratic	Wab Kinew	–	18	18
	Liberal	Dougald Lamont	–	3	3
	Green	James Beddome	–	–	–	–	–
	Manitoba Forward	Wayne Sturby	–	–	–	–	–
	Manitoba First	Douglas Petrick	–	–	–	–	–
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	–	–	–	–	–
	Independents		–	–	–	–	–
	Vacant				0		–
Blank and invalid votes
Total				57	57	–
Registered voters/turnout

Opinion polls

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election

Pollster	Dates conducted	Sample size	Polling method	Margin of error	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	Others	Lead
Probe Research[p 1]	Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020	1,000	Telephone	3.1%	37%	41%	14%	6%	3%	4%
Angus Reid[p 2]	Nov 24–30, 2020	420	Online	4.8%	39%	40%	12%	5%	4%	1%
Probe Research[p 3]	Sep 8–17, 2020	1,000	Telephone	3.1%	43%	34%	16%	5%	3%	9%
EKOS[p 4]	Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020	1,154	HD-IVR	2.9%	44%	31%	12%	9%	4%	13%
EKOS[p 5]	Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020	1,691	HD-IVR	2.4%	43%	27%	18%	7%	5%	16%
Probe Research[p 6]	Jun 2–11, 2020	1,000	Telephone	3.1%	38%	36%	18%	7%	2%	2%
Angus Reid[p 7]	May 19–24, 2020	430	Online	4.7%	45%	36%	12%	6%	1%	9%
Probe Research[p 8]	Mar 10–24, 2020	1,000	Telephone	3.1%	43%	33%	14%	8%	2%	10%
Probe Research[p 9]	Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019	1,000	Telephone	3.1%	42%	36%	13%	8%	2%	6%
2019 general election	Sep 10, 2019	—	—	—	47.1%	31.4%	14.5%	6.4%	0.6%	15.7%

Opinion poll sources

1. "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
2. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
3. "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
4. "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
5. "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
6. "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
7. "Provincial Spotlight: COVID-19 creates comfort zone for incumbent governments coast to coast". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-06-08. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
8. "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
9. Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2021-01-13.