1948 United States presidential election in Florida

The 1948 United States presidential election in Florida was held on November 2, 1948. Voters chose eight electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

United States presidential election in Florida, 1948

November 2, 1948
Turnout	33.5%
Nominee Harry Truman Thomas Dewey Strom Thurmond Party Democratic Republican Dixiecrat Home state Missouri New York South Carolina Running mate Alben Barkley Earl Warren Fielding Wright Electoral vote 8 0 0 Popular vote 281,988 194,280 89,755 Percentage 48.82% 33.63% 15.54%
County Results Truman   30-40%   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90% Dewey   30-40%   40-50%   50-60% Thurmond   30-40%   50-60%
President before election Harry Truman Democratic Elected President Harry Truman Democratic

Background

Excepting the 1928 election when fierce anti-Catholicism and Prohibitionism caused Herbert Hoover to defeat the wet Catholic Al Smith,[1] Florida since the end of the Reconstruction era had been a classic Southern one-party state dominated by the Democratic Party. Disfranchisement of African-Americans and many poor whites had virtually eliminated the Republican Party – only nine Republicans had ever been elected to the state legislature since 1890 – and Democratic primaries were the sole competitive elections.

Under the influence of Senator Claude Pepper, Florida had abolished the poll tax in 1937, leading to steady increases in voter turnout during the following several elections;[2] however, there was no marked increase in African-American voting and Democratic hegemony remained unchallenged: FDR did not lose a single county in the state during his four elections.[3]

Dixiecrat revolt

However, on February 2, 1948, incumbent President Harry S. Truman, fearing that the anti-democratic practices and racial discrimination of the South would severely denigrate the United States' reputation in the Cold War,[4] launched the first civil rights bill since the end of Reconstruction, along with Executive Order 9981 to desegregate the military. Mississippi Governor Fielding Wright had already sounded a call for revolt, which he took to the Southern Governors Conference at Wakulla Springs[5] to say that calls for civil rights legislation by national Democrats would not be tolerated in Dixie.

After Truman was renominated at the 1948 Democratic National Convention, Southern Democrats walked out and convened at Birmingham, Alabama on July 17, nominating South Carolina Governor James Strom Thurmond for president and Mississippi Governor Fielding L. Wright for vice president.[6]

To bolt or not to bolt

Largely because it had a smaller proportion of African Americans in its population than Mississippi, South Carolina or Louisiana, Florida was less deeply involved in the bolt from the national Democratic Party.[7] Frank D. Upchurch, a long-time adversary of Senator Pepper, had recommended that the renomination of Truman be fought, whilst the more liberal Pepper argued that unless Dwight Eisenhower replaced Truman as the nominee, the Democrats had no chance of winning.[8] In the primary campaign for electors, bolters won eleven and a half votes out of twenty and control of the state's delegation.

When Florida's Democrats designated their presidential electors, four were pledged against Truman and four to vote for him,[7] although only names of electors were listed.[9] However, after the "States' Rights" convention in July, Miami Herald publisher Reuben Clein filed a civil suit to disqualify the four original electors who planned to vote for Thurmond.[8][10] Senator Pepper reversed his earlier pledge to not support Truman, and a special session of the state legislature provided separate lists for all candidates,[8] including the far-left former Vice-President Henry Wallace.

Pepper campaigned on Dewey's alleged support of big business over the "little man",[11] and Truman made a whistle-stop tour of the state in mid-October.[12]

Vote

Harry Truman won by 87,708 votes or 15.19 percentage points against Republican opponent Thomas E. Dewey. In the socially conservative Panhandle, Truman was able to rely on having a strong economic program – which Thurmond entirely lacked – to hold off Thurmond's racial appeal.[13] In more liberal South Florida – which had seen extensive settlement by Northerners since the war – his economic policies were a winner against Henry Wallace, who received only two percent of the state's vote but did an order of magnitude better in some Tampa precincts.[14]

Dewey nonetheless made dramatic gains upon previous Republican efforts in Florida. By carrying eleven counties, mostly in the southwest and on the east coast, he was only the fifth Republican to carry any Florida county at the presidential level since the poll tax' original implementation following the 1888 election.[3][lower-alpha 1] The Dewey counties had in earlier Democratic primaries typically backed "conservative" candidates favoring limited or no economic regulation,[13] due to their lack of dependence on the traditionally "Southern" crops of cotton and tobacco, and would become the most consistently conservative and Republican counties in future presidential elections.

Strom Thurmond, who had had to run as a third-party candidate under the "States' Rights" banner, nonetheless won over fifteen percent of the vote. Thurmond carried three counties but ran second in thirty-one others.

Electoral eccentricities

This is the last time, as of the 2020 presidential election, that Florida was won by a Democratic presidential candidate by double digits; not even Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide election nor Jimmy Carter in 1976 managed to win the state by double digits, despite both men being Southern Democrats. Republicans have won Florida by double digits in the following elections:

• 1952 and 1956 when Dwight D. Eisenhower won the state by margins of 10.02 and 14.54%
• the 1972 election when Richard Nixon carried the state by a staggering margin 44.1% and won every single county making this the best showing by a Republican in the sunshine state ever.
• the 1980 and 1984 elections when Ronald Reagan won the state by margins of 17 and 30.6% respectively
• the 1988 election, when George Bush senior won the Sunshine State by a margin of 22.4%

This election is also the last time Highlands County have ever voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.[15] Osceola County, which Truman won by two votes, would not vote Democratic again until 1996.[3] Seminole County voted Republican from 1952 until 2020.

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 1948[16]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Harry S. Truman	281,988	48.82%	8
	Republican	Thomas E. Dewey	194,280	33.63%	0
	States' Rights	J. Strom Thurmond	89,755	15.54%	0
	Progressive	Henry A. Wallace	11,620	2.01%	0
Total			577,643	100.00%	8
Voter turnout (Voting age)			33.5%[17]

Results by county

	Harry S. Truman[18] Democratic		Thomas Edmund Dewey[18] Republican		James Strom Thurmond[19] States' Rights		Henry Agard Wallace[20] Progressive		Total Votes Cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Alachua	3,745	36.78%	2,403	23.60%	3,937	38.67%	97	0.95%	10,182
Baker	849	72.19%	112	9.52%	213	18.11%	2	0.17%	1,176
Bay	5,168	70.68%	928	12.69%	1,193	16.32%	23	0.31%	7,312
Bradford	1,228	56.07%	357	16.30%	593	27.08%	12	0.55%	2,190
Brevard	2,348	42.20%	2,315	41.61%	857	15.40%	44	0.79%	5,564
Broward	7,096	36.35%	9,933	50.88%	2,300	11.78%	192	0.98%	19,521
Calhoun	1,404	78.26%	128	7.13%	258	14.38%	4	0.22%	1,794
Charlotte	520	41.01%	559	44.09%	172	13.56%	17	1.34%	1,268
Citrus	940	56.90%	461	27.91%	244	14.77%	7	0.42%	1,652
Clay	1,544	56.31%	722	26.33%	457	16.67%	19	0.69%	2,742
Collier	362	41.14%	247	28.07%	251	28.52%	20	2.27%	880
Columbia	1,797	53.93%	553	16.60%	978	29.35%	4	0.12%	3,332
Dade	59,681	53.52%	41,301	37.04%	7,136	6.40%	3,394	3.04%	111,512
De Soto	1,157	55.57%	569	27.33%	350	16.81%	6	0.29%	2,082
Dixie	862	67.82%	111	8.73%	295	23.21%	3	0.24%	1,271
Duval	28,567	47.85%	15,379	25.76%	14,428	24.17%	1,321	2.21%	59,695
Escambia	13,982	63.11%	3,267	14.75%	4,790	21.62%	117	0.53%	22,156
Flagler	153	23.61%	154	23.77%	330	50.93%	11	1.70%	648
Franklin	635	59.79%	130	12.24%	294	27.68%	3	0.28%	1,062
Gadsden	1,427	50.93%	376	13.42%	992	35.40%	7	0.25%	2,802
Gilchrist	884	83.32%	46	4.34%	131	12.35%	0	0.00%	1,061
Glades	274	49.37%	150	27.03%	127	22.88%	4	0.72%	555
Gulf	1,219	77.20%	146	9.25%	209	13.24%	5	0.32%	1,579
Hamilton	1,071	66.44%	202	12.53%	337	20.91%	2	0.12%	1,612
Hardee	1,871	65.49%	689	24.12%	281	9.84%	16	0.56%	2,857
Hendry	699	53.89%	340	26.21%	241	18.58%	17	1.31%	1,297
Hernando	825	49.34%	441	26.38%	372	22.25%	34	2.03%	1,672
Highlands	2,257	52.98%	1,471	34.53%	498	11.69%	34	0.80%	4,260
Hillsborough	18,854	45.67%	13,529	32.77%	5,094	12.34%	3,809	9.23%	41,286
Holmes	1,799	56.29%	492	15.39%	902	28.22%	3	0.09%	3,196
Indian River	1,055	43.10%	1,134	46.32%	246	10.05%	13	0.53%	2,448
Jackson	3,169	55.11%	648	11.27%	1,917	33.34%	16	0.28%	5,750
Jefferson	700	52.91%	153	11.56%	467	35.30%	3	0.23%	1,323
Lafayette	975	85.15%	52	4.54%	117	10.22%	1	0.09%	1,145
Lake	3,474	41.96%	3,579	43.23%	1,180	14.25%	46	0.56%	8,279
Lee	1,883	32.48%	2,276	39.26%	1,600	27.60%	38	0.66%	5,797
Leon	3,607	58.55%	1,149	18.65%	1,350	21.91%	55	0.89%	6,161
Levy	1,128	55.76%	225	11.12%	662	32.72%	8	0.40%	2,023
Liberty	737	86.81%	30	3.53%	81	9.54%	1	0.12%	849
Madison	1,189	51.70%	207	9.00%	898	39.04%	6	0.26%	2,300
Manatee	2,766	36.35%	3,371	44.30%	1,431	18.80%	42	0.55%	7,610
Marion	4,650	57.01%	1,829	22.43%	1,640	20.11%	37	0.45%	8,156
Martin	815	38.55%	948	44.84%	323	15.28%	28	1.32%	2,114
Monroe	3,759	83.48%	548	12.17%	122	2.71%	74	1.64%	4,503
Nassau	1,518	55.10%	540	19.60%	681	24.72%	16	0.58%	2,755
Okaloosa	2,519	62.86%	486	12.13%	992	24.76%	10	0.25%	4,007
Okeechobee	784	74.81%	179	17.08%	84	8.02%	1	0.10%	1,048
Orange	10,063	39.23%	11,971	46.67%	3,374	13.15%	244	0.95%	25,652
Osceola	1,577	44.65%	1,575	44.59%	357	10.11%	23	0.65%	3,532
Palm Beach	9,408	39.01%	10,996	45.60%	3,226	13.38%	485	2.01%	24,115
Pasco	2,375	48.66%	1,839	37.68%	628	12.87%	39	0.80%	4,881
Pinellas	15,724	35.32%	24,900	55.92%	3,400	7.64%	500	1.12%	44,524
Polk	12,034	52.57%	7,692	33.60%	2,992	13.07%	174	0.76%	22,892
Putnam	1,947	40.27%	1,435	29.68%	1,431	29.60%	22	0.46%	4,835
St. Johns	1,994	31.63%	1,840	29.18%	2,438	38.67%	33	0.52%	6,305
St. Lucie	1,704	38.38%	1,689	38.04%	1,027	23.13%	20	0.45%	4,440
Santa Rosa	2,316	65.72%	549	15.58%	639	18.13%		0.57%	3,524
Sarasota	2,302	32.31%	3,559	49.95%	1,213	17.02%	51	0.72%	7,125
Seminole	2,261	45.16%	1,665	33.25%	1,060	21.17%	21	0.42%	5,007
Sumter	1,411	65.57%	251	11.66%	486	22.58%	4	0.19%	2,152
Suwannee	3,033	71.62%	398	9.40%	786	18.56%	18	0.43%	4,235
Taylor	1,354	67.73%	216	10.81%	422	21.11%	7	0.35%	1,999
Union	594	67.96%	55	6.29%	225	25.74%	0	0.00%	874
Volusia	9,202	46.76%	7,764	39.46%	2,411	12.25%	301	1.53%	19,678
Wakulla	997	72.30%	72	5.22%	305	22.12%	5	0.36%	1,379
Walton	2,366	62.28%	652	17.16%	761	20.03%	20	0.53%	3,799
Washington	1,380	62.42%	297	13.43%	523	23.65%	11	0.50%	2,211
Totals[21][lower-alpha 2]	281,988	48.82%	194,280	33.63%	89,755	15.54%	11,620	2.01%	577,643

References

1. Doherty, Herbert J. (junior); 'Florida and the Presidential Election of 1928'; The Florida Historical Quarterly, vol. 26, no. 2 (October 1947), pp. 174-186
2. Poll Taxes: Hearings Before the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on S. 1280, Seventy-Seventh Congress, Second Session, Parts 1-2, p. 289
3. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, p. 164-165 ISBN 0786422173
4. Frederickson, Kari A.; The Dixiecrat Revolt and the End of the Solid South, p. 76 ISBN 0807849103
5. Key, Valdimer Orlando; Southern Politics in State and Nation, p. 330 Alfred A. Knopf (1949)
6. Key; Southern Politics, p. 335
7. Key; Southern Politics, pp. 337-338
8. Pleasant, Julian M.; 'Claude Pepper, Strom Thurmond, and the 1948 Presidential Election in Florida'; The Florida Historical Quarterly, vol. 76, no. 4 (Spring, 1998), pp. 439-473
9. 'Floridians to Find It Hard to Vote Dixiecrat Ticket'; The Evening Independent, July 17, 1948, p. 1
10. Gainesville Sun, September 5, 1948; Tallahassee Daily Democrat, September 8, 1948
11. 'Pepper Charges Dewey Favours Big Business'; St. Petersburg Times, September 3, 1948, p. 1
12. Goldzwig, Steven R.; Truman's Whistle-stop Campaign, p. 89 ISBN 1603440062
13. Doherty, Herbert J. (junior); 'Liberal and Conservative Politics in Florida'; The Journal of Politics, vol. 14, no. 3 (August 1952), pp. 403-417
14. Menendez; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, p. 75
15. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
16. "1948 Presidential General Election Results – Florida".
17. Gans, Curtis and Mulling, Matthew; Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788-2009, p. 481 ISBN 9781604265958
18. Géoelections; 1948 Presidential Election Popular Vote (xlsx file for €15)
19. Géoelections; Popular Vote for Strom Thurmond (xlsx file for €15)
20. Géoelections; Popular Vote for Henry Wallace (xlsx file for €15)
21. Florida Department of State, Division of Elections, (compiler); Official Vote – State of Florida General Election – 1948 Tabulated by Counties (Tallahassee, 1948)

Notes

1. William Howard Taft carried Calhoun County in 1908; Warren G. Harding in 1920 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924 each carried three counties in South Florida, and Herbert Hoover in 1928 carried the state and 41 of 67 counties.
2. These totals are the highest elector for each slate. Adding the county tables, which are averages for the electors on each slate, will produce a slightly smaller number.