Shaheen-III

The Shaheen-III (Urdu: شاہین– ااا; lit. White Falcon-III) is a Pakistani land-based surface-to-surface medium range ballistic missile, which was test fired for the first time by military service on 9 March 2015.[5][6]

Shaheen-III
Pakistan successful test-fire of Shaheen-III missile
TypeMedium-range ballistic missile (MRBM)
Place of origin Pakistan
Service history
In serviceStrategic Plans Division
[1]
Production history
DesignerNESCOM and SUPARCO
DesignedClassified
ManufacturerNescom and Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission
VariantsShaheen-I and Shaheen-II
Specifications
Length19.3 m
Diameter1.4 m
Effective firing range2500-3000 km
WarheadHE/NE
EngineMulti-stage Solid-fuel rocket[2]
PropellantSolid-fuel system[1]
Operational
range
2750 km[3][4]
Guidance
system
Inertial guidance
AccuracyNot specified
Launch
platform
Transporter erector launcher (TEL) WS21200
Transportspaceport or TEL

Development began in secrecy in the early 2000s in response to India's Agni-III, Shaheen was successfully tested on 9 March 2015 with 2750 km (1700 mi) range, which could enable it to reach all corners of India and reach deep into the Middle East parts of North Africa.[7] The missile, according to a former Director General of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, is designed to reach Indian islands so that India cannot use them as “strategic bases” to establish a “second strike capability.”[8]

The Shaheen program is composed of the solid-fuel system in a contrast to Ghauri program that is primarily based on liquid-fuel system.[9] With the successful launch of the Shaheen', it surpasses the range of Shaheen-II— hence it is the longest-range missile to be launched by the military.[10]

US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center estimates that as of June 2017 this missile type was not yet operationally deployed.[1]

Overview

Development history
Main article: Integrated Missile Research and Development Programme
Speculative range of the Shaheen-III.

The range of the Shaheen-3 is sufficient to target all of mainland India from launch positions in most of Pakistan to the south of Islamabad. But apparently, the missile was developed to do more than that. According to Gen. Kidwai, the range of 2750 km was determined by a need to be able to target the Nicobar and Andaman Islands in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean that are “developed as strategic bases” where “India might think of putting its weapons”. But for a 2750-km range Shaheen-3 to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, it would need to be launched from positions in the very Eastern parts of Pakistan, close to the Indian border. If deployed in the Western parts of the Balochistan province, the range of the Shaheen-3 would for the first time bring Israel within range of Pakistani nuclear missiles.[11]

In 2000, the Space Research Commission concluded at least two design studies for its space launch vehicle.[12] Initially, there were two earlier designs were shown in IDEAS held in 2002 and its design was centered on developing a space booster based on the design technologies of the Shaheen-I.[12] Since then, Shaheen owes its existence largely to the joint efforts led by NDC of NeScom and Space Research Commission.[12]

The Shaheen-III was shrouded in top secrecy and very little information was available to the public, mostly provided in 2002 IDEAS.[12] Majority of the efforts and funding was being made available to Ghauri-III to seek strike in Eastern region of India.[13] In May 2000, the Ghauri-III was cancelled due to its less advance and lack of technological gain.[13] Despite strong advocacy by Abdul Qadeer Khan for the Ghauri-III program made to be feasible, the program was terminated by then-President Pervez Musharraf who made the funding available for Shaheen-III program which was to be led under Samar Mubarakmand.[14] The Air Force, however, pressed for Shaheen-III to make it feasible as liquids were being developed that would allow the missiles to be left in a ready-to-shoot form for extended periods.[15]

The Shaheen-III was initially purposed as the space booster for the space program to make it possible for installing the satellite payload applications.[12] Despite its efforts, the existence of Shaheen-III continued to be speculated in news media as Pakistan Ministry of Defence and the Joint Staff HQ nor confirms or deny the existence of the program.[12]

In a press conference held in Lahore in 2009, Samar Mubarakmand stated that: "Pakistan would launch its own satellite in April 2011."[16] Although no confirmation or denial of Shaheen program's existence was given by Dr. Mubarakmand, the rumors and speculations yet to be continued for the existence of the program.[16]

After years of speculations, the Shaheen-III was eventually revealed and tested on 9 March 2015 with a 2750 km (1700-mile) range.[17]

It uses WS51200 transporter erector launcher TEL manufactured in China by Wanshan Special Vehicle.[4][18]

Testings

On 9 March 2015, the ISPR released a press statement on notifying the successful testing of the Shaheen-III that was conducted from the southern coast off the Arabian Sea.[19]

Military officials from JS HQ, SPD scientists and engineers, oversaw the launch of the system and witnessed the impact point in the Arabian Sea.[20] Reports summed up by NTI, there had been series of testings taken place of the rocket engine nozzles before the eventual tests took place in 2015.[21]

On 20 January 2021, the ISPR released a press statement stating that a successful test of Shaheen-III aimed at "revalidating various design & tech parameters of weapon system" was conducted.[22]

Analysis

Strategic prospect
Main articles: Nuclear brinksmanship and Mutually assured destruction

Several Pakistani nuclear and military strategists reportedly quoted that the "Shaheen-III has a range greater than that of any other missile system in-service.[6] Earlier testings of Shaheen-III had the maximum range of about 2,500km, which meant it can reach all parts of India, even the eastern frontier.[6]

Air Marshal Shahid Latif, a retired senior commander in the Pakistan Air Force, noted the strategic significance of missile: "Now, India doesn’t have its safe havens anymore. It's all a reaction to India, which has now gone even for tests of extra-regional missiles. It sends a [very] loud message: If you hurt us, we are going to hurt you back.!"[6]

Mansoor Ahmad, a professor of Strategic studies at the Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University, stated that: "Pakistan's military, however, is not interested in a "tit-for-tat" arms race with India." and speculated that developmental work may be under progress to make missile capable of delivering multiple warheads which would make them harder to defend against.[6]

Peace prospect
Main articles: Confidence building measures in India–Pakistan relations and Peace through strength

In a views of political scientist, dr. Farrukh Saleem, the Shaheen-III seems to be a reaction to Indian-generated threats.[23] Dr. Saleem, on the other hand, stressed that: "Pakistan does not seem to be aiming at competing with India but Pakistan's aims seem to revolve around the creation of a credible deterrence, and a credible deterrence is bound to strengthen strategic stability."[23]

Dr. Farrukh Saleem's views were also echoed by Mansoor Ahmad who maintained that: "Pakistan hopes to improve "existing capabilities," including new delivery systems for evading an Indian missile defense shield.[6]

See also

References
  1. Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat (Report). Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee. June 2017. p. 25. NASIC-1031-0985-17. Archived from the original on 18 July 2017. Retrieved 16 July 2017.
  2. "Shaheen 3". Archived from the original on 15 September 2017. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  3. "Test launch of Pakistan's 'Shaheen-III' surface-to-surface ballistic missile successful". 9 March 2015. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 9 March 2015.
  4. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 9 December 2016. Retrieved 10 June 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. Haider, Mateen (10 March 2015). "Test launch of Shaheen-III ballistic missile successful". Dawn News, 2015. Dawn News. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  6. Craig, Tim (9 March 2015). "Pakistan tests missile that could carry nuclear warhead to every part of India". Special report by Time Craig, correspondent of Washington Post-Asia Pacific Bureau. Washington Post-Asia Pacific Bureau. Washington Post. Archived from the original on 11 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  7. Analysis. "Shaheen-III Ballistic Missile: Enforcing Strategic Deterrence". Archived from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 18 March 2015.
  8. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 30 August 2017. Retrieved 10 June 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. "Musharraf stopped funds for Ghauri-III missile". 28 May 2011. Archived from the original on 4 December 2014. Retrieved 9 March 2015.
  10. Shukla, Jayoti (10 March 2015). "Pakistan successfully conducted the flight test of ballistic missile Shaheen-III". India Today-Asia Bureau. India Today. Archived from the original on 22 January 2016. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  11. Kristensen, Hans M.; Norris, Robert S. (2016). "Pakistani nuclear forces, 2016". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 72 (6): 368–376. Bibcode:2016BuAtS..72f.368K. doi:10.1080/00963402.2016.1241520.
  12. Pike, John. "Shaheen-III: Space Booster development". www.globalsecurity.org/. Global Security, Inc. Archived from the original on 19 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  13. Khan, Abdul Qadeer (28 May 2011). "Musharraf stopped funds for Ghauri-III missile saying: "Do you want to destroy Israel"". News International. News International. Archived from the original on 11 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  14. "Pakistan Pushes To Improve Missile Strike Capability". Defense News. 17 November 2008. Retrieved 28 March 2011.
  15. Ansari, Usman (17 November 2008). "Pakistan Pushes To improve Missile Strike Capability" Check |url= value (help). Defence News, 2008. Defence News. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  16. Pike, John. "Pakistan Finally Dropped the Other Shoe". Pakistan Finally Dropped the Other Shoe. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  17. "Pakistan Conducts Successful test launch of Shaheen III". Express Tribune. 9 March 2015. Archived from the original on 11 March 2015. Retrieved 9 March 2015.
  18. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 23 September 2018. Retrieved 17 July 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  19. ISPR Press Release. "Shaheen 3 Missile test: ISPR". www.ispr.gov.pk/. ISPR. Archived from the original on 23 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  20. Associated Agencies (10 March 2015). "Pakistan successfully tests Shaheen-III missile". Daily Times, Pakistan. Daily Times, Pakistan. Archived from the original on 12 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.
  21. NTI. "Delivery system". \http://www.nti.org/. Nuclear Threat Initiative. Archived from the original on 29 June 2012. Retrieved 11 March 2015. External link in |website= (help)
  22. "Pakistan conducted successful flight test of #Shaheen-3".
  23. Saleem, Farrukh (10 March 2015). "Shaheen-III to force India to talk peace". Opinion work published by Dr. Farrukh Saleem. News International, 2015. News International, Opinion. Archived from the original on 11 March 2015. Retrieved 11 March 2015.

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