Second weekend in box office performance

In the United States, a film's box office gross in its second weekend of theatrical release is one of several factors used to predict overall box office performance. Most films experience a decline in box office gross in its second weekend. If the percentage of the drop is below the average, it indicates a subpar box office performance for the rest of its theatrical run. Some films are exceptions that they perform better in their second weekend of release than on opening weekend.

Second-weekend drop

During a film's theatrical run, its box office performance generally declines from weekend to weekend. In addition to the film's opening-weekend gross, the percentage of the change between the opening weekend and the second weekend is used as a gauge for a film's commercial success.[1] Assuming that the number of theaters stays the same, a normal drop in box office gross from the first weekend to the second would be 40%. A drop of greater than 60% indicates a weak future performance.[1] Horror films are susceptible to having large drops in the second weekend and beyond even after a strong opening weekend.[2] Chris Anderson, in his 2008 book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, said twenty years prior, the average film experienced a second weekend drop of less than 30% and that the contemporary drop was now around 50%. Anderson ascribed the change to moviegoers being able to better identify mediocre and bad films through more information, both from more reviews and greater word-of-mouth.[3] Slate in 2012 also reported a steeper drop over the course of the years. In the 1980s, the average drop was 15.7%, and in the 1990s, the drop was 21.5%. In 2012, the average drop was 49.1%.[4]

The Los Angeles Times said the second-weekend drop was seasonal in the United States. Between May and July, the country's summer season, films have more significant drops than during the rest of the year. It reported that in May 2014, three opening blockbuster films—The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, and X-Men: Days of Future Past—all had drops of over 60% where films earlier in the 21st century rarely had drops that steep. The newspaper cited possible reasons for the drops: that the films did not "inspire long-term moviegoing", and that alternative platforms such as Redbox, Netflix, and video on demand attracted film audiences who missed a film's opening weekend.[5] The Hollywood Reporter said in 2017, "Generally speaking, a superhero film can fall 60 percent," highlighting Wonder Woman's second-weekend drop of 45% as "scant" compared to others in the genre.[6] In 2019, Dark Phoenix set a new record for the biggest second-weekend box office drop for a superhero film with 72.6%.[7]

The box office website Box Office Mojo ranks the following films by biggest second weekend drops during their wide release in the United States, which means screening in at least 600 theaters. The website bases its ranking on box office performance data from 1982 onward.[8]

Top ten films by second weekend drop

Rank	Film	Year in wide release	Opening weekend ($)	Second weekend ($)	Change (%)	Theaters (second weekend)
1	Collide	2017	1,512,824	173,620	-88.5	1,002
2	Undiscovered	2005	676,048	91,748	-86.5	754
3	Slow Burn	2007	778,123	119,150	-84.7	755
4	Jane Got a Gun	2016	835,572	137,523	-83.5	1,031
5	Before I Go to Sleep	2014	1,843,347	331,708	-82.0	820
6	Gigli	2003	3,753,518	678,640	-81.9	2,215
7	Bad Moon	1996	607,081	112,397	-81.5	649
8	Return to the Blue Lagoon	1991	1,277,428	245,814	-80.8	1,222
9	Friday the 13th	2009	40,570,365	7,942,472	-80.4	3,105
10	The Brothers Solomon	2007	508,601	100,230	-80.3	700

The 2012 family film The Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure, though not in wide release, set a record for biggest second-weekend drop. It opened in 2,160 theaters and grossed $443,901 over the opening weekend. In its second weekend, it screened in 281 theaters and grossed $43,854, which was a 90.1% drop.[9][10]

Second-weekend increase

An increase in a film's box office gross in its second weekend, provided that the number of theaters did not grow substantially and the film did not open on a Sunday, is considered exceptional. For example, the 1997 film Titanic had an opening weekend gross of $28.64 million and with only a small increase in the number of theaters, its second-weekend gross was $35.45 million, a 24% increase from the previous weekend.[1]

Box Office Mojo reports that out of over 4,700 wide-release films that were assessed, only 208 (or around 4%) saw an increased gross in their second weekend. The top ten are listed below.[11]

Top ten films with second-weekend increase in 600+ theaters

Rank	Film	Year in wide release	Opening weekend ($)	Second weekend ($)	Change (%)	Theaters (second weekend)
1	Little Women	1994	2,411,247	6,776,403	+181.0	1,574
2	Rumor Has It	2005	3,473,155	9,364,661	+169.6	2,815
3	One Hundred and One Dalmatians (1961)	1985	2,389,226	5,715,836	+139.2	1,180
4	Kiss Me Goodbye	1982	1,345,672	2,845,627	+111.5	803
5	Grumpy Old Men	1993	3,874,911	7,488,527	+93.3	1,244
6	War Horse	2011	7,515,402	14,422,729	+91.9	2,547
7	A Christmas Story	1983	2,072,473	3,935,944	+89.9	938
8	All the Pretty Horses	2000	1,304,971	2,477,053	+89.8	1,593
9	Lady and the Tramp	1986 (re-release)	2,804,272	5,030,706	+79.4	1,375
10	Out of Africa	1985	3,637,290	6,504,397	+78.8	922

Box Office Mojo reports that 20 films (out of over 1,000 assessed) have opened in over 3,000 theaters and increased in gross in its second weekend.[12]

Films with second weekend increase in 3,000+ theaters

Rank	Film	Year in wide release	Opening weekend ($)	Second weekend ($)	Change (%)	Theaters (second weekend)
1	The Greatest Showman	2017	8,805,843	15,520,732	+76.3	3,316
2	Cheaper by the Dozen 2	2005	9,309,387	14,486,519	+55.6	3,211
3	We Bought a Zoo	2011	9,360,434	13,238,241	+41.4	3,163
4	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	2017	36,169,328	50,051,364	+38.4	3,765
5	Mother's Day	2016	8,369,184	11,087,076	+32.5	3,141
6	The Wild Thornberrys Movie	2002	6,013,847	7,364,432	+22.5	3,012
7	Sing	2016	35,258,145	42,896,330	+21.7	4,029
8	Night at the Museum	2006	30,433,781	36,766,905	+20.8	3,768
9	Mary Poppins Returns	2018	23,523,121	28,353,117	+20.5	4,090
10	Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb	2014	17,100,520	20,202,008	+18.1	3,941
11	The Blind Side	2009	34,119,372	40,111,364	+17.6	3,140
12	The Adventures of Tintin	2011	9,720,993	11,436,160	+17.6	3,087
13	Fun with Dick and Jane	2005	14,383,515	16,522,532	+14.9	3,056
14	Passengers	2016	14,869,736	16,160,539	+8.7	3,478
15	Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius	2001	13,832,786	15,035,649	+8.7	3,151
16	The Prince of Egypt	1998	14,524,321	15,119,107	+4.1	3,218
17	Annie	2014	15,861,939	16,474,065	+3.9	3,197
18	Walking with Dinosaurs	2013	7,091,938	7,276,172	+2.6	3,243
19	Bolt	2008	26,223,128	26,581,002	+1.4	3,654
20	Shrek	2001	42,347,760	42,481,425	+0.3	3,623

See also

• List of highest-grossing second weekends for films
• List of highest-grossing openings for films
• List of highest-grossing openings for animated films

References

1. Mathijs, Ernest (2006). Lord of the Rings: Popular Culture in Global Context. Wallflower Press. p. 90. ISBN 978-1-904764-82-3.
2. Langford, Barry (2006). Film Genre: Hollywood and Beyond. Edinburgh University Press. p. 165. ISBN 978-0-7486-1903-0.
3. Anderson, Chris (2008). The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More. Hyperion. p. 233. ISBN 978-1-4013-0966-4.
4. Pagels, Jim (July 23, 2012). "Why Batman Had No Competition at the Box Office". Slate. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
5. Zeitchik, Steven (June 3, 2014). "What's causing sales for recent big films to drop sharply after their first weekend?". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
6. McClintock, Pamela (June 10, 2017). "Weekend Box Office: 'The Mummy' Entombed With $32M U.S. Debut". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved June 12, 2017.
7. Sharf, Zack (June 17, 2019). "'Dark Phoenix' Box Office Gets Worse With Biggest Second Weekend Drop Ever for Superhero Film". IndieWire. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
8. "Biggest Second Weekend Drops". boxofficemojo.com. Box Office Mojo. Retrieved June 18, 2013.
9. Cunningham, Todd (September 10, 2012). "'Oogieloves' Sets Another Box Office Record: Biggest 2nd-Week Drop". The Wrap. The Wrap News Inc. Retrieved June 14, 2013.
10. "Oogieloves in the Big Balloon Adventure". boxofficemojo.com. Box Office Mojo. Retrieved June 14, 2013.
11. "Smallest Second Weekend Drops – Wide Releases 600+". boxofficemojo.com. Box Office Mojo. Retrieved December 13, 2018.
12. "Smallest Second Weekend Drops – Super Saturated 3,000+". boxofficemojo.com. Box Office Mojo. Retrieved December 13, 2018.

External links

• Will 'Fantastic Four' Take One Of The Biggest 2nd Weekend Drops Ever For A Comic Book Film? at Forbes, August 14, 2015
• Box-Office Analysis: 'Suicide Squad' and the Summer of Steep Second-Week Drops at The Hollywood Reporter, August 15, 2016