Climate change in Tanzania

Climate change is already affecting Tanzania. Temperatures in Tanzania are rising with a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events (resulting in flooding) and of dry spells (resulting in droughts).[1][2]

Water scarcity has become an increasing problem and many major water bodies have had extreme drops in water levels, including Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika Lake Jipe, and Lake Rukwa.[3][1] Tanzania's agricultural sector, which employs over half of the population is particularly vulnerable as farmers are predominantly dependent on rainfed agriculture.[3] On the other hand, increasing intense rainfall events has resulted in flooding across the region damaging infrastructure and livelihoods.[4] A high percentage of the population of Tanzania lives along the coast and are dependent on fisheries and aquaculture.[3] Sea level rise and changes in the quality of water are expected to impact these sectors and be a continued challenge for the country.[3]

Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change.[5] In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impact of climate change and climate variability on the country’s social, economic and physical environment.[6] In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC).[7]

Impacts
Fishing boat off Dar es Salaam

Between 1981 and 2016 there are marked areas of drying in parts of northeast and much of southern Tanzania. In contrast, moderate wetting trends occurred in central Tanzania and stronger wetting trends in the northwest of the country.[2] A clear warming trend is apparent in annual temperature. By the 2090s projected warming is in the range of 1.6 to 5.0 °C, also evenly distributed across the country.[2] For rainfall there is strong agreement for decreases in the mean number of rain days and increases in the amount of rainfall on each rainy day (the ‘rainfall intensity’). Taken together these changes suggest more variable rainfall, with both higher likelihood of dry spells (such as droughts) and a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events (often associated with flooding).[2] Climate change impacts of severe droughts, floods, livestock deaths, crop failures and outbreak of disease (such as cholera and malaria) are likely to be regularly observed.[8]

Agriculture
Tanzanian rice farmer

Agriculture (including livestock) is the dominant sector in the Tanzanian economy, providing livelihood, income and employment.[9] It is also identified as the sector most vulnerable to climate change.[5] An increase in temperature by 2 °C - 4 °C is likely to alter the distribution of Tanzania's seven agro-ecological zones. Areas that used to grow perennial crops would be suitable for annual crops. Climate change would tend to accelerate plant growth and reduce the length of growing seasons.[5] Vulnerability in the agricultural sector is likely to include decreased crop production of different crops exacerbated by climatic variability and unpredictability of seasonality, erosion of natural resource base and environmental degradation.[5]

A 2011 study found that crop yields are both affected by heating and increased variability. An increase in temperature by 2 °C during the growing season as projected by 2050 will likely reduce yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 8.8% and 13% respectively in Tanzania. A 20% increase in precipitation variability between seasons was found to decrease yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 7.2% and 4.2% respectively by 2050.[10] For example a severe drought in Dodoma resulted in an 80% decrease in harvest.[11]

Health

There are a number of climate-sensitive diseases in Tanzania that may become more prevalent during drought and flooding.[12][11] Water related diseases such as cholera and malaria may increase in Tanzania due to climate change.[12]

In parts of Tanzania, cholera outbreaks have been linked with increased rainfall.[13] Cholera outbreaks in North East, South East, Lake Victoria basin and coastal areas of Tanzania were due to high rainfall.[13][14] Research has also shown that initial risk of cholera increased by 15% to 19% for every 1 °C temperature increase.[15] It was further projected that in 2030 the total costs of cholera attributable to climate change variability will be in the range of 0.32% to 1.4% of national GDP for Tanzania.[15]

The incidence of malaria are known to be highest during heavy rainfall and high temperatures as it makes mosquitoes’ habitats (such as ponds, pools, wells or bores, streams, rivers and canals) suitable breeding sites.[16][14] For example, a study conducted in Lushoto district, Tanzania, reported that malaria cases were prominent during high rainfall seasons and there was a link to an increase in temperatures.[14]

Policies and plans

Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The overall vision of Tanzania’s NAPA is to identify immediate and urgent climate change adaptation actions that are robust enough to lead to long-term sustainable development in a changing climate.[5] The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change.[5]

In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impacts of climate change and climate variability on the country’s social, economic and physical environment.[6] In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC).[7]

References
  1. "Tanzania". Climatelinks. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  2. Future Climate for Africa. "Future climate projections for Tanzania" (PDF). Future Climate for Africa.
  3. "Tanzania | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  4. "Tanzania: Floods in Dar es Salaam - Emergency Plan of Action Final Report n° MDRTZ024 / PTZ040 - United Republic of Tanzania". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  5. United Republic of Tanzania (2007). "National Adaptation Programme of Action" (PDF). UNFCCC.
  6. "Tanzania: National climate change strategy - National Policy, Plans & Statements - PreventionWeb.net". www.preventionweb.net. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  7. United Republic of Tanzania (2015). "Tanzania Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" (PDF).
  8. Levira, Pamela William (2009-02-01). "Climate change impact in agriculture sector in Tanzania and its mitigation measure". IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 6 (37): 372049. doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/37/372049. ISSN 1755-1315.
  9. "New Agriculturist: Country profile - Tanzania". www.new-ag.info. Retrieved 2020-11-28.
  10. Rowhani, Pedram; Lobell, David B.; Linderman, Marc; Ramankutty, Navin (2011-04-15). "Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 151 (4): 449–460. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.002. ISSN 0168-1923.
  11. Shemsanga, Ceven; Muzuka, A. N. N.; Martz, L.; Komakech, H.; Omambia, Anne Nyatichi (2017), Chen, Wei-Yin; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian (eds.), "Statistics in Climate Variability, Dry Spells, and Implications for Local Livelihoods in Semiarid Regions of Tanzania: The Way Forward", Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 801–848, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-14409-2_66, ISBN 978-3-319-14409-2, retrieved 2020-11-29
  12. Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Mayala, Benjamin K.; Kweka, Eliningaya J.; Mazigo, Humphrey D. (2011). "Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review". Tanzania Journal of Health Research. 13 (5 Suppl 1): 407–426. doi:10.4314/thrb.v13i5.10. ISSN 1821-6404. PMID 26591995.
  13. Hulme, Mike; Doherty, Ruth; Ngara, Todd; New, Mark; Lister, David (2001-08-15). "African climate change: 1900-2100". Climate Research. 17 (2): 145–168. doi:10.3354/cr017145. ISSN 0936-577X.
  14. Ojija, Fredrick; Abihudi, Siri; Mwendwa, Beatus; Leweri, Cecilia M.; Chisanga, Kafula (2017-07-28). "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Health Sectors in Tanzania: A review". International Journal of Environment, Agriculture and Biotechnology. 2 (4): 1758–1766. doi:10.22161/ijeab/2.4.37.
  15. Trærup, Sara L. M.; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil (2011-11-28). "The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 8 (12): 4386–4405. doi:10.3390/ijerph8124386. ISSN 1660-4601. PMC 3290983. PMID 22408580.
  16. Ahern, Mike; Kovats, R. Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Few, Roger; Matthies, Franziska (2005-07-01). "Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence". Epidemiologic Reviews. 27 (1): 36–46. doi:10.1093/epirev/mxi004. ISSN 1478-6729. PMID 15958425.
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