2021 Ecuadorian general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 7 February 2021.[1] Incumbent president Lenín Moreno, who has held the office since his victory over Guillermo Lasso in 2017, is not seeking reelection.[2] The National Electoral Council (CNE) has established the date for the first round of the presidential election as 7 February,[1] at which time there will also be a vote about mining in Cuenca.[1] Francis Fukuyama described 2020 as having brought "mostly bad news regarding the state of global democracy" in a Wall Street Journal article on December 15 of the same year, specifically citing Ecuador as an example of "severe crises of authority" due to the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]

2021 Ecuadorian general election

7 February 2021

Presidential election

Candidate Andrés Arauz Lucio Gutiérrez Juan Fernando Velasco Party FCS PSP MCE   Candidate Carlos Sagnay Ximena Peña César Montúfar Party FE PAIS MC   Candidate Yaku Pérez Gustavo Larrea Guillermo Lasso Party MUPP MDS CREO

Incumbent President Lenin Moreno PAIS Alliance

While the issue of potential delay in the election was raised,[4] on 15 December 2020, the CNE clarified that there would not be a shift in the electoral calendar, and confirmed that the elections would take place in February 2021.[5]

Background

The previous Ecuadorian general election, on 19 February 2017 (alongside a referendum on tax havens)[6] saw voters elect a new president and National Assembly. Incumbent President Rafael Correa, of the PAIS Alliance, had already served two terms and was ineligible for reelection. In the first round of presidential elections, PAIS Alliance candidate Lenín Moreno received 39% of the vote. Although he was more than 10% ahead of his nearest rival, Guillermo Lasso of the Creating Opportunities party, he was short of the 40% threshold required to avoid a run-off, and a second round was held on 2 April.[7] In the second round Moreno was elected president with 51.16% of the vote;[8][9] the National Electoral Council announced on 13 April that it would recount all ballots contested by both parties (accounting to about 10% of the total vote),[10] after which Moreno was awarded an additional 1,594 votes and retained his majority.[11]

Electoral system

The president will be elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10% ahead of their nearest rival to be elected in the first round.[12] The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[13]

Members of the National Assembly are elected by three methods. Fifteen are elected by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency. Six are elected by overseas voters (two each from Canada/United States, Latin America and Asia/Europe/Oceania). The remaining 116 members are elected from multi-member constituencies by closed list proportional representation, with all seats allocated using the Webster method.[14][15] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, either consecutive or not. There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[13]

Alongside the presidential and legislative elections, a referendum will be held in the city of Cuenca, asking voters whether to prohibit mining near 5 different rivers to protect the ecosystem. The voters are asked to answer yes or no to prohibit mining in each area. [1][16]

Presidential candidates

On 18 August 2020, the political coalition Unión por la Esperanza (UNES), comprising the Centro Democrático and Fuerza Compromiso Social parties, announced that its presidential candidate would be Andrés Arauz, an economist, former Minister of Knowledge and Human Talent (from 2015 to 2017), and "largely unknown" political figure.[17] Arauz's running mate was to be Rafael Correa, former president of Ecuador from 2007 to 2017;[18] However, Correa's acceptance of the vice presidential position on the ticket was rejected by Ecuador's National Electoral Council (CNE), as Correa had been convicted for corruption.[19] Carlos Rabascall Salazar was then selected as Arauz' running mate.[20] Arauz has promised to scrap the current IMF austerity plan approved by the incumbent president, claiming it will undermine Ecuadorian families and growth and that it has been overly favorable to creditors. He wants to continue making debts payments to bondholders but says that public spending would take priority. He wants to respect existing mining concessions, but would seek greater community participation and conduct reviews of compliance with environmental and investment plans.[21] Arauz has also promised to give 1 million families $1000 in the first week of office. [22] He has also proposed transforming the current extractivist model towars a model based on the knowledge economy and biodiversity. When asked about decriminalizing abortion, he has stated that he personally believes it should be allowed in certain circumstances, but that a debate about it should be promoted by society. [23]

On 22 August anti-abortion activist Martha Cecilia Villafuerte announced her candidacy as vice-president alongside presidential candidate Gerson Almeida, on the Ecuatoriano Unido ticket.[24]

Pedro Freile Vallejo is the candidate from the AMIGO Movement party, with vice president Byron Solís Figueroa, who accepted his nomination on August 24.[25]

Isidro Romero announced his run as the Avanza party candidate in September.[26][27]

On 8 October María Sara Jijón announced her candidacy as vice president, on the Izquierda Democrática ticket, with the independent presidential candidate, businessman and engineer Xavier Hervas Mora.[28]

On 16 October Carlos Sagnay de la Bastida became the candidate for Partido Fuerza Ec.[29]

Lucio Gutiérrez Borbúa, former president of Ecuador, is the candidate from the Sociedad Patriótica party.[30]

Alianza Honestidad, the coalition of the Partido Socialista Ecuatoriano and Concertación parties, nominated César Montúfar Mancheno, with vice presidential nominee Julio Villacreses Guillém.[31]

The Unión Ecuatoriana candidate is Giovanny Andrade Salvador, whose running mate is Katherine Mata.[32]

Indigneous activist and prefect of Azuay Province, Yaku Pérez Guartambel is the candidate for the Pachakutik party.[33] Molecular biologist Virna Cedeño Escobar decided to accept the offer to be the party's candidate for vice president after first being reluctant. [34] He claims to be from the "ecological left" and giving voters an alternative to the “authoritarian and corrupt left” of former president Correa. He has promised to review the agreements with the IMF, and to not pay any "illegitimate debt", refusing to meet with IMF officials when they visited the country in September. He claims he is open to a trade deal with the united states, and has been critical of China's policies around extractivism and human rights.[35] Pérez has proposed a ban on all mining activity and to limit oil extraction.[22] He has expressed support for allowing abortion in cases of rape or when there are serious risk to the health of the mother or fetus. He has suggested holding a referendum on the issue. [36]

Democracia Sí advanced Gustavo Larrea Cabrera as its presidential candidate, with Alexandra Peralta Marín as vice-presidential candidate.[37]

Alianza CREO-PSC, a coalition of the Movimiento CREO and Partido Social Cristiano parties, advanced businessman and candidate in the previous two elections Guillermo Lasso Mendoza as its candidate, with Alfredo Borrero Vega as vice-presidential candidate.[38][39] Lasso proposes to increase foreign investment and raise oil production. He wants to reform and reduce taxation and provide credit for the agriculture sector.[40] He has also said that he will not disavow the agreement with the IMF and respect the debt restructuring agreed to by the previous presidency, but will not raise the VAT tax.[41] Lasso is a staunch opponent of abortion in all cases and believes in support for human life from conception to death.[36]

Partido SUMA's candidate is Guillermo Celi Santos, with running mate Verónica Sevilla Ledergerber.[42]

Movimiento Construye's candidate is Juan Fernando Velasco Torres, with running mate Ana María Pesántes Salazar.[43]

Juntos Podemos nominated Paul Carrasco Carpio, with vice presidential nominae Frank Vargas Anda.[44]

Party of the incumbent president Alianza PAIS nominated Ximena Peña Pacheco, with running mate Patricio Barriga Jaramillo.[45]

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Andrés Arauz	Lucio Gutiérrez	Juan Fernando Velasco	Carlos Sagnay	Ximena Peña	César Montúfar	Yaku Pérez	Gustavo Larrea	Guillermo Lasso	Xavier Hervas	Isidro Romero	None/ Don't Know	Others	Lead
			FCS	PSP	MC25	FE	PAIS	MC	MUPP	MDS	CREO	ID	AVANZA
Atlas Intel	22 Jan 2021	3.202	36.5	2.4	1.1	0.3	1.5	1.5	10.8	0.2	26.7	4.5	1.5	5.2	-	9.8
Omar Maluk	21 Jan 2021	17.636	39.2	4.2	1.1	0.8	1.7	2.1	14.4	1.8	21.8	1.5	6.2	N/A	-	17.4
Comunicaliza	20 Jan 2021	2,057	37.4	3.8	1.1	0.5	1.3	1.4	19.2	0.3	18.5	4.5	2.4	N/A	12.0	18.2
Market	10 Jan 2021	1,520	37.2	2.3	1.1	0.2	1.5	1.3	15.9	0.7	33.8	0.9	0.6	N/A	5.1	3.4
Pulso Ciudadano	9 Jan 2021	1,500	26.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.4	1.2	11.6	0.1	20.9	1.7	1.1	8.9	24.8	5.8
Atlas Intel	31 Dec 2020	3,175	34.4	0.9	0.1	0.3	1.6	1.0	8.2	0.4	26.7	3.1	0.8	7.0	15.5	7.7
ESTRATEGIA Consultores	29 Dec 2020	1,400	22.3	2.1	1.2	–	–	2.7	17.4	2.5	20.2	–	4.3	18.4	9.8	2.1
Perfiles de Opinión	27 Dec 2020	4,579
Eureknow	23 Dec 2020	1,400
Clima Social	20 Dec 2020	3,500
CELAG	13 Dec 2020	3,000
CEDATOS	8 Dec 2020	1,800
CEDATOS	4 Dec 2020	2,950
Informe Confidencial	26 Nov 2020	1,560
MKT Consulting Corp.	17 Nov 2020	3,298
Clima Social	15 Nov 2020	2,579
CEDATOS	6 Nov 2020	3,250
CEDATOS	4 Nov 2020	3,250
CEDATOS	27 Oct 2020	2,600
CEDATOS	24 Oct 2020	2,600
Clima Social	8 Oct 2020	2,017
Informe Confidencial	7 Oct 2020	1,000
Informe Confidencial	5 Oct 2020	1,000
ESTRATEGIA Consultores	1 Oct 2020	1,400
CEDATOS	29 Sep 2020	2,100
Pulso Ciudadano	28 Sep 2020	1,400
CEDATOS	20 Sep 2020	2,100
MKT Consulting Corp.	18 Sep 2020	8,400
Atlas Intel	18 Sep 2020	3,772
SERVIDATOS	14 Sep 2020	4,800
INTERVIU	12 Sep 2020	1,000
Eureknow	10 Sep 2020	750

References

1. "Cuenca, Ecuador anti-mining vote in February 2021". Mining Journal. 7 December 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
2. "Ecuador's trial of the century opens". The Economist. 6 February 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
3. Fukuyama, Francis (15 December 2020). "Francis Fukuyama on the State of Democracy in 2020 and Beyond". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
4. "La fecha de las elecciones presidenciales podría retrasarse". Expreso. 15 December 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
5. "El CNE aclara que no se cambiará la fecha de votaciones presidenciales". Expreso. 15 December 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
6. Referendum on tax havens will be conducted in the elections of 2017 Archived 24 December 2016 at the Wayback Machine Ecuador Times, 22 November 2016
7. Ecuador will hold run-off poll to choose new president BBC News, 23 February 2017
8. CNE plenary presented total results of the second round of elections CNE, 10 April 2017
9. El Pleno del CNE proclamó a Lenín Moreno presidente electo de Ecuador El Comercio, 18 April 2017
10. "Ecuador presidential election: 10% of votes to be recounted". Associated Press. 14 April 2017. Retrieved 24 June 2017 – via The Guardian.
11. "Ecuador Vote Recount Confirms Moreno as Next President". US News and World Report. 19 April 2017. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
12. Ecuador Election Guide Archived 24 December 2016 at the Wayback Machine IFES
13. Ecuador Political Database of the Americas
14. "La Asamblea aprobó reformas al Código de la Democracia". El Comercio. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
15. "Electores no podrán votar por candidatos de distintas listas". El Comercio. Retrieved 15 January 2021.
16. Angulo, Sebastián (31 January 2021). "Mineras ponen sus ojos en la consulta popular de Cuenca". www.expreso.ec. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
17. Martinez, Juan (21 August 2020). "Ecuador: Andrés Arauz and Rafael Correa to Run in 2021 Presidential Elections". The Rio Times. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
18. España, Sara (18 August 2020). "Rafael Correa confirma su candidatura a la vicepresidencia de Ecuador en 2021". EL PAÍS (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 December 2020.
19. "Ecuador's Former President Convicted on Corruption Charges". The New York Times. 1 September 2020. Retrieved 5 December 2020.
20. "Binomio Andrés Arauz y Carlos Rabascall, oficialmente calificados, anuncia el CNE". Diario Correo | El Diario de Todos. 9 December 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2021.
21. Ellsworth, Alexandra Valencia, Brian (20 January 2021). "UPDATE 2-Ecuador president hopeful Arauz would scrap IMF economic program". Reuters. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
22. Ellsworth, Alexandra Valencia, Brian (29 January 2021). "As election nears, pandemic-weary Ecuadoreans lean toward return to socialism". Reuters. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
23. Miguel, Mercedes López San (6 December 2020). "Andrés Arauz: "Buscan impedir que participemos de las elecciones en Ecuador" | Entrevista al candidato a presidente para los comicios del 7 de febrero". PAGINA12. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
24. "Martha Villafuerte será compañera de fórmula del pastor evangélico Gerson Almeida por Ecuatoriano Unido para elecciones del 2021". El Universo. 22 August 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
25. "Byron Solís es candidato a vicepresidente por el movimiento AMIGO". GK. 7 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
26. "Isidro Romero acepta su precandidatura por Avanza". www.expreso.ec.
27. "Isidro Romero ofrece 'desinfectar la política' y abrió la puerta para sellar alianzas con Avanza". El Comercio.
28. "María Sara Jijón aspira a ser Vicepresidenta de la República por la Izquierda Democrática". GK. 8 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
29. "FE reemplaza a Miguel Salem y Gustavo Bucaram por Carlos Sagnay y Narda Ortiz en binomio presidencial". El Universo. 16 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
30. "Lucio Gutiérrez, tras su propia revancha: regresar a Carondelet". El Universo. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
31. Imbaquingo, Jorge R. (16 November 2020). "César Montúfar: 'El país tiene que entrar en una lógica política diferente'". El Comercio. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
32. "Katherine Mata es candidata a la vicepresidencia por el movimiento Unión Ecuatoriana". GK. 12 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020. El 3 de octubre de 2020, inscribió su candidatura a la vicepresidencia de la república ante CNE. Lo hizo junto a Giovanny Andrade -candidato a la presidencia- por el movimiento Unión Ecuatoriana.
33. "En su plan de gobierno, Yaku Pérez plantea que la salud y la educación sean la base de la reorganización productiva". El Universo. 16 November 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
34. "Virna Cedeño: 'He planteado llegar con un rol de la ciencia, de la tecnología, la innovación y educación'". El Universo (in Spanish). 16 December 2020. Retrieved 29 January 2021.
35. February 1, Brendan O’Boyle (1 February 2021). "Yaku Pérez: The New Face of Ecuador's Left?". Americas Quarterly. Retrieved 4 February 2021. Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help)
36. "Los candidatos que rehuyen hablar sobre el aborto en sus campañas". Plan V (in Spanish). 11 January 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
37. "Alexandra Peralta será la candidata a vicepresidenta por el movimiento Democracia Sí". GK. 7 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020. Alexandra Peralta Marín es la candidata a la vicepresidencia por el movimiento Democracia Sí. Perata fue viceministra de Agricultura, Ganadería, Acuacultura y Pesca durante siete meses en 2018 y 2019. Es economista especializada en proyectos agrícolas y agroindustriales. En las elecciones de 2021 será el binomio de Gustavo Larrea, candidato a la presidencia del movimiento.
38. "Alfredo Borrero es el binomio de Guillermo Lasso". La Republica. 11 August 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020. El director de Salvar Vidas, Alfredo Borrero Vega, ha aceptado la candidatura de la Vicepresidencia de la República, en binomio con Guillermo Lasso, según ha conocido este sitio de fuentes no oficiales pero muy cercanas al movimiento CREO.
39. "PSC y Creo sellan acuerdo para apoyar candidatura de Guillermo Lasso". Primicias. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
40. "Guillermo Lasso: El presidente podrá reducir el IVA por un número de días al año". El Universo (in Spanish). 19 January 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
41. Valencia, Alexandra (27 January 2021). "Ecuador's Lasso said he would not disavow IMF deal if elected". Nasdaq. Reuters. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
42. "Verónica Sevilla, empresaria y ex Miss Ecuador aspira a la Vicepresidencia de la República". GK. 7 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
43. Flores, Gabriel (28 September 2020). "Juan Fernando Velasco renuncia como ministro para seguir con so campaña presidencial". El Comercio. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
44. "Frank Vargas Anda, candidato a la vicepresidencia por el movimiento Juntos Podemos". GK. 12 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
45. "Candidata Ximena Peña (AP) dice que renegociará con el FMI". El Comercio. 22 October 2020. Retrieved 16 December 2020.