2017 Scarborough—Agincourt federal by-election

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Scarborough—Agincourt in the Greater Toronto Area of Ontario on December 11, 2017 following the death of Liberal MP Arnold Chan.[1] The seat was held for the Liberals by Jean Yip.[2]

2017 Scarborough—Agincourt federal by-election

December 11, 2017
Seat of Scarborough—Agincourt
Turnout	26.74% ( 32.68pp)
LPC CPC NDP Candidate Jean Yip Dasong Zou Brian Chang Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Popular vote 9,091 7,448 931 Percentage 49.44% 40.51% 5.06% Swing 2.50pp 2.48pp 2.79pp
MP before election Arnold Chan Liberal Elected MP Jean Yip Liberal

The by election was held on the same day as 3 others across Canada; Battlefords—Lloydminster in Alberta, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity in Newfoundland and Labrador and South Surrey—White Rock in British Columbia.

Background

Constituency

The riding covers the northwest of the Scarborough part of Toronto. It contains the neighbourhoods of Steeles, L'Amoreaux, Tam O'Shanter-Sullivan, Agincourt and Milliken. Immigrants make up 67.8% of the population of Scarborough—Agincourt, the highest such percentage for any Canadian federal riding;[3] those from Asia and the Middle East alone, constitute a majority of the population (53.0%), which is also the highest figure for any federal riding,[4] and, in particular, immigrants from the People's Republic of China are almost a quarter (24.7%) of the riding's population, another Canadian high. Chinese, not otherwise specified (i.e. Cantonese, Mandarin, etc.) is the home language for 12.0% of the people in Scarborough—Agincourt (another demographic record).[5]

Representation

The riding of Scarborough—Agincourt has been held by the Liberals since it was first created for the 1988 federal election with Jim Karygiannis serving as its MP until his retirement in 2014.

Liberal Arnold Chan was first elected in a 2014 by-election and was re-elected in the 2015 general election with 51.9% of the vote. Chan died from nasopharyngeal cancer on September 14, 2017.[1]

Campaign

Jean Yip, Chan's widow, defeated[6] Gordon Lam[7] for the Liberal nomination on November 12.[8][9] Ward 39 Scarborough Agincourt – North city councillor and former Scarborough—Agincourt MP Jim Karygiannis declined to run for the nomination, but threw his support to Yip.[9]

Investment banker Dasong Zou[7] defeated[10] the riding's Conservative candidate in the 2008 federal election, physician Benson Lau[11] for the Conservative nomination. York Region District School Board Trustee Allan Tam as well as former teacher and immigration officer Sarah Chung[12] were both rejected by the party. Tam did not apply before the deadline and Chung was disqualified on two different occasions.[13]

Scarborough-born federal NDP leader and former GTA MPP Jagmeet Singh, who did not have a seat in the House of Commons, ruled out standing as a candidate in the by-election.[14] On November 19, reporter Brian Chang was acclaimed the NDP candidate.[15]

Rumoured candidates for the Liberal nomination who ultimately did not run included Liberal Scarborough Centre MPP Brad Duguid,[16] Toronto City Council staffer Nick Mantas, Ontario Progressive Conservative staffer Hratch Aynedijan, Ward 36 (Scarborough Southwest – South) city councillor and former provincial Progressive Conservative candidate Gary Crawford, and Liberal Scarborough—Agincourt MPP Soo Wong.[9]

The Speaker's warrant regarding the vacancy was received on September 19, 2017; under the Parliament of Canada Act the writ for a by-election had to be dropped no later than March 18, 2018, 180 days after the Chief Electoral Officer was officially notified of the vacancy via a warrant issued by the Speaker.[17]

Results

The seat was held by the Liberals, with a slight swing to the Conservatives.

Canadian federal by-election, December 11, 2017: Scarborough—Agincourt Death of Arnold Chan
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Jean Yip	9,091	49.44	−2.50
	Conservative	Dasong Zou	7,448	40.51	+2.48
	New Democratic	Brian Chang	931	5.06	−2.79
	Christian Heritage	Jude Coutinho	371	2.02	+1.21
	Green	Michael DiPasquale	253	1.38	+0.00
	Independent	Tom Zhu	148	0.80
	Independent	John Turmel	145	0.79
Total valid votes/Expense limit			18,387	100.00
Total rejected ballots
Turnout			18,387	26.74	−32.68
Eligible voters			68,775
	Liberal hold		Swing		−2.49

2015 result

2015 Canadian federal election: Scarborough—Agincourt
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Arnold Chan	21,587	51.95	+6.38	$70,985.90
	Conservative	Bin Chang	15,802	38.03	+3.88	$81,000.27
	New Democratic	Laura Thomas Patrick	3,263	7.85	-10.14	$3,832.40
	Green	Debra Scott	570	1.37	-0.92	–
	Christian Heritage	Jude Coutinho	334	0.80	–	$621.16
Total valid votes/Expense limit			41,556	99.41		$203,566.74
Total rejected ballots			248	0.59	–
Turnout			41,804	59.42	–
Eligible voters			70,355
	Liberal hold		Swing		+1.25
Source: Elections Canada[18][19]

References

1. Wherry, Aaron (September 14, 2017). "Liberal MP Arnold Chan dies after battle with cancer". CBC News. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
2. "Liberal Jean Yip declares victory in Scarborough-Agincourt byelection". Toronto Star. December 11, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
3. "Immigrant Status and Place of Birth (38), Sex (3) and Age Groups (10) for the Population of Canada, Provinces, Territories and Federal Electoral Districts (2003 Representation Order), 2006 Census - 20% Sample Data". 2.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved 2012-11-23.
4. "Appendix J Comparison of places of birth disseminated in 2006, 2001 and 1996". 2.statcan.ca. 2009-11-20. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
5. "First Official Language Spoken (7), Detailed Language Spoken Most Often at Home (232), Age Groups (17A) and Sex (3) for the Population Excluding Institutional Residents of Canada, Provinces, Territories and Federal Electoral Districts (2003 Representation Order), 2011 Census". 2.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved 2012-11-19.
6. "SCARBOROUGH—AGINCOURT LIBERALS NOMINATE JEAN YIP AS NEW TEAM TRUDEAU CANDIDATE". liberal.ca. 12 November 2017. Retrieved 13 November 2017.
7. "Elections Canada Nominations Database". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 23, 2017.
8. Delacourt, Susan (28 October 2017). "Jean Yip to vie for late husband Arnold Chan's seat". Thestar.com. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
9. "Potential Liberal candidates in Scarborough-Agincourt waiting to see if Chan's widow will run for nomination - The Hill Times". Hilltimes.com. 25 September 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
10. Holmes, Tracy (November 13, 2017). "Conservatives choose Findlay for South Surrey-White Rock run". Peace Arch News. Retrieved November 13, 2017.
11. "保守党党魁谢尔联同刘秉纯医生与长者畅聚". EasyCA. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
12. "Vote for Sarah Chung – About". votesarahchung.ca. Archived from the original on 2017-12-01. Retrieved 2017-11-23.
13. "'Frame job': CPC attacked over rejection of pro-life nomination candidates - iPolitics". iPolitics. 2017-11-22. Retrieved 2017-11-23.
14. "Jagmeet Singh on taking on Trudeau, winning over Quebec and now being 'sufficiently electable'". National Post. September 19, 2017. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
15. "Scarborough—Agincourt NDP source". Ndp.ca. Retrieved 2018-05-13.
16. "Two hard decisions for two prominent Liberals". TVO. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
17. "Vacant Seats in the House of Commons Since the 2015 General Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 4, 2017.
18. Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Scarborough—Agincourt, 30 September 2015
19. Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates

See also

• By-elections to the 42nd Canadian Parliament