2015 Tanzanian general election

The Tanzanian general election of 2015 was the 5th quinquennial election to be held since the restoration of the multi-party system in 1992. Voters elected the president, members of Parliament, and local government councillors.[2] By convention, the election was held on the last Sunday of October and was supervised by the National Electoral Commission (NEC). Political campaigns commenced on 22 August and ceased a day before the polling day.[1]

2015 Tanzanian general election

25 October 2015[1]
Opinion polls
Registered	23,254,485
Nominee John Magufuli Edward Lowassa Party CCM CHADEMA Running mate Samia Suluhu Juma Haji Popular vote 8,882,935 6,072,848 Percentage 58.46% 39.97%
President before election Jakaya Kikwete CCM Elected President John Magufuli CCM

The incumbent president, Jakaya Kikwete, was ineligible to be elected to a third term because of term limits.[3] Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the country's dominant ruling party, selected Works Minister John Magufuli as its presidential nominee instead of the front-runner, former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa. After failing to secure the CCM's nomination, Lowassa defected to the opposition Chadema party despite it once labelling him as "one of the most corrupt figures in Tanzanian society".[4] This year's election was seen as the most competitive and unpredictable in the nation's history.[5]

The government had warned politicians to refrain from engaging in witchcraft, and a deputy minister told parliament that reports linking politicians with the killings of people with albinism could be true as it increases during the election period.[6] A ban on witch doctors was imposed in January 2015,[7] as some of them condone the killings due to superstitious beliefs that the victims' bodies "possess powers that bring luck and prosperity".[8]

On 29 October, CCM's Magufuli was declared the winner ahead of Chadema's Lowassa, who has yet to concede amid a dispute.[9] Meanwhile, CCM, despite retaining a supermajority of seats in Parliament, declined further in the number of seats, with Chadema securing its largest-yet number of seats.

Background

Kikwete has presided over an average economic growth of 7% over the past decade.[10] Tanzania received a foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $2.14 billion in 2014 – the highest in the East African Community (EAC) region.[11]

Tanzania is a unitary, democratic, secular and de jure socialist state. Unlike most of its neighbours, Tanzania–mainland has enjoyed relative political stability since attaining independence in 1961. This is part of the legacy of its first president, Julius Nyerere, who led the one-party state for 24 years until his resignation in 1985.[12] Since then, a two-term presidential limit has been in place. As per the directive of the Bretton Woods Institutions, political and economic reforms were implemented in the 1990s.

All eligible voters were registered using the Biometric Voters' Register (BVR) kits.[13] In June 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that there were 24,252,927 eligible voters based on the adjusted national population census.[14] By 2 August, NEC succeeded in registering 24,001,134 voters,[15] although the final number was 23,254,485.[16] The Tanzanian diaspora were not allowed to vote in this election.[17]

At the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D. C., President Kikwete said that he is looking forward to his retirement and described the presidency as being both "stressful and thankless."[3] When asked as to why some African leaders cling to power, Kikwete replied that every country is different and suggested the interviewer "invite these leaders and talk to them".[18] In May 2015, Kikwete denied reports that his government planned to extend his term beyond his constitutional mandate and assured the nation that he was "leaving in October".[19]

A new constitution was expected to have been adopted before the general election via a referendum that had been postponed. The final draft of the proposed constitution includes the establishment of an independent electoral commission and will allow dissatisfied candidates to challenge the results in the High Court within seven days of the pronouncement.[20] Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman has said the judiciary was prepared to handle all cases pertaining to the results of the forthcoming election.[21]

On 29 July 2015, 21 political parties signed the 2015 General Elections Code of Conduct.[22] About 4,000 adherents of the Watch Tower Church in Kalambo District have been prohibited from voting as it is against their beliefs.[23] The Tanzanian Army refuted allegations made by CHADEMA that it had confiscated the BVR cards of its soldiers and warned political parties "to stop provoking it."[24]

Presidential election

Voters selected the fifth President and his running mate as the Vice President of Tanzania.

Article 39(1) of the 1977 Constitution stipulates the following qualifications for a person to be elected as President:[25]

a) he is a citizen by birth in accordance with the citizenship law; b) he has attained the age of forty years; c) he is a member of, and a candidate nominated by, a political party;

d) he is qualified to be [an] MP or a Member of the House of Representatives; e) he has not been convicted by any court for any offence relating to tax evasion.

The proposed constitution adds the following criteria: both parents of the candidate ought to be citizens by birth; the candidate be of sound mind and either holds a Bachelor's degree or has skill and experience in leadership at the national level; and may also be a private candidate. The winning candidate will have to obtain more than 50% of all the votes cast; otherwise a runoff will be held within 60 days.[20]

CCM

The ruling CCM (and its predecessor parties) has dominated the political scene since the nation attained independence in 1961. Following the restoration of multi-party politics in 1992, it has retained its popularity and the voters' confidence, winning all of the past four general elections (held in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010).[26] Jakaya Kikwete, its presidential candidate in 2005, won by a landslide, receiving more than 80 percent of the popular vote.[27] In the last election in 2010, Kikwete won his second and final term, albeit by a reduced margin.[28]

More than forty members of the party contested in the primaries. On 10 July, the party's Central Committee scrutinised the then 38 presidential aspirants and selected five candidates for the consideration of its National Executive Committee. The top five were Foreign Minister Bernard Membe, Works Minister John Magufuli, Justice Minister Asha-Rose Migiro, Deputy Minister January Makamba and Ambassador Amina Salum Ali.[29] On 11 July, the National Executive Committee selected the three finalists: John Magufuli, Amina Salum Ali and Asha-Rose Migiro.[30]

On 12 July, Works Minister John Magufuli was declared as the party's candidate;[31] he was considered most likely to win the election.[32][33][34][35][36] The Economist Intelligence Unit in its political forecast stated that "CCM's candidate is almost certain to become the country's next president."[37]

Opposition

Four opposition parties with differing ideologies agreed to form an alliance known as UKAWA and intended to nominate a single candidate. The alliance consists of the conservative/centrist Chadema party, the liberal Civic United Front (CUF), the social democratic NCCR–Mageuzi and the National League for Democracy (NLD).[38]

Former Prime Minister and CCM front-runner Edward Lowassa defected to Chadema and was selected as the alliance's nominee instead of Wilbroad Slaa, who was Chadema's 2010 candidate. CUF National Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba resigned, stating that the coalition had "reneged on its agreement" on receiving those defecting from CCM.[39]

Ibrahim Lipumba resigned as CUF Chairman following Lowassa's selection as UKAWA's nominee.

Candidate		Running mate	Party
	Anna Elisha Mghwira[40]	Hamad Mussa Yussuf	Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT)
	Edward Lowassa[40]	Juma Duni Haji	Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA)
	Fahmi Nassoro Dovutwa[40]	Hamadi Mohammed Ibrahimu	United People's Democratic Party (UPDP)
	Hashim Rungwe Spunda[40]	Issa Abas Hussein	Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma (CHAUMMA)
	Janken Malik Kasambala[40]	Simai Abdulrahman Abdulla	National Reconstruction Alliance (NRA)
	Lutalosa Yembe[40]	Said Miraj Abdallah	Alliance for Democratic Change (ADC)
	Machmillan Elifatio Lyimo[40]	?	Tanzania Labour Party (TLP)

Other elections

Parliamentary election

Constituency representation in the outgoing Parliament
Political Party				Seats
CCM			185
CHADEMA			24
CUF			24
NCCR-M			4
TLP			1
UDP			1
Total			239

In the last election, the CCM attained 186 of the 239 constituencies, thus achieving an outright majority in the National Assembly.[28] Tanzania uses first-past-the-post voting method for its legislative elections. On 9 July 2015, President Kikwete addressed Parliament for the last time before it being dissolved.[41]

Voting will take place in all the 265 parliamentary constituencies in order to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the National Assembly.[2] More than 2,700 CCM members contested in the party's primaries in order to seek the party's nomination.[42]

Zanzibar

The semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar elects its own President and members to its subnational legislature, the Zanzibar House of Representatives. The Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) has declared 25 October as the election date.[43] The number of constituencies has been increased from 50 to 54.[44]

Presidential election

Candidate		Party
	Ali Mohammed Shein[45]	Chama Cha Mapinduzi
	Seif Sharif Hamad[46]	Civic United Front
	Hamad Rashid Mohamed[47]	Alliance for Democratic Change
	Ambar Khamis Haji[45]	NCCR–Mageuzi
	Juma Ali Khatib[48]	TADEA
	Soud Said Soud[45]	Alliance for Tanzania Farmers Party

Opinion polls

Pre-nomination

Poll source	Date	Sample size	Undecided	Lowassa CCM	Pinda CCM	Slaa CHADEMA	Lipumba CUF	Membe CCM	Magufuli CCM	Mbowe CHADEMA	Zitto CHADEMA	Mwandosya CCM	Makamba CCM
Twaweza[49]	September 2014	1,445	33%	13.0%	12.0%	11.0%	6.0%	5.0%	3.0%	3.0%	1.0%
Positive Thinkers[50]	March 2015	3,298	–	22.8%	3.2%	19.5%	8.9%	5.9%	6.8%		6.7%	1.2%	1.6%
Samunge SSRC[51]	2013–2015	7,000	–	20.7%	2.4%	11.7%	4.2%	7.0%	7.6%	3.4%	3.4%		4.8%
REDET[52]	23–26 June 2015	1,250	–	27.0%	7.2%			8.2%	6.6%			3.1%	0.8%
						23.1%	13.6%			7.2%

Post-nomination

Poll source	Date	Sample size	Undecided	Magufuli CCM	Lowassa CHADEMA	Mghwira ACT	Others	Notes
Twaweza[53]	19 August–7 September 2015	1,848	7.0%	65.0%	25.0%	N/A	3.0%	Margin of error of +/-2.5%
Ipsos[54]	5–22 September 2015	1,836	7.3%	61.6%	30.8%	0.3%	–	Margin of error of +/-2.3%
TADIP[55]	1–21 September 2015	2,040	3.0%	40.0%	54.5%	2.0%	–	Poll conducted in only 10 regions

Results

President

Candidate		Running mate	Party	Votes	%
	John Magufuli	Samia Suluhu	Chama Cha Mapinduzi	8,882,935	58.46
	Edward Lowassa	Juma Duni Haji	Chadema	6,072,848	39.97
	Anna Mghwira	Hamad Mussa Yussuf	Alliance for Change and Transparency	98,763	0.65
	Lutalosa Yembe	Said Miraj Abdallah	Alliance for Democratic Change	66,049	0.43
	Hashim Rungwe Spunda	Issa Abas Hussein	Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma	49,256	0.32
	Machmillan Elifatio Lyimo	?	Tanzania Labour Party	8,198	0.05
	Janken Malik Kasambala	Simai Abdulrahman Abdulla	National Reconstruction Alliance	8,028	0.05
	Fahmi Nassoro Dovutwa	Hamadi Mohammed Ibrahimu	United People's Democratic Party	7,785	0.05
Total				15,193,862	100.00
Valid votes				15,193,862	97.42
Invalid/blank votes				402,248	2.58
Total votes				15,596,110	100.00
Registered voters/turnout				23,161,440	67.34
Source: NEC

National Assembly

Party	Votes	%	Seats
			Directly Elected	Women	Appointed	Total	+/–
Chama Cha Mapinduzi	8,021,427	55.04	188	64		252
Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo	4,627,923	31.75	34	36		70
Civic United Front	1,257,765	8.63	32	10		42
Alliance for Change and Transparency	323,112	2.22	1	0		1
NCCR–Mageuzi	218,209	1.50	1	0		1
Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma	23,058	0.16	0	0	0	0	0
Democratic Party	14,471	0.10	0	0	0	0	0
United Democratic Party	13,757	0.09	0	0	0	0	–1
Tanzania Labour Party	13,098	0.09	0	0	0	0	–1
ADA–TADEA	12,979	0.09	0	0	0	0	0
Alliance for Democratic Change	12,420	0.09	0	0	0	0	0
Chama cha Haki na Ustawi	8,217	0.06	0	0	0	0	0
Alliance for Tanzania Farmers Party	7,498	0.05	0	0	0	0	0
United People's Democratic Party	3,772	0.03	0	0	0	0	0
Jahazi Asilia	3,344	0.02	0	0	0	0	0
Progressive Party of Tanzania – Maendeleo	3,037	0.02	0	0	0	0	0
Chama Cha Kijamii	2,310	0.02	0	0	0	0	0
National League for Democracy	2,082	0.01	0	0	0	0	0
Union for Multiparty Democracy	1,975	0.01	0	0	0	0	0
Sauti ya Umma	1,810	0.01	0	0	0	0	0
National Reconstruction Alliance	1,467	0.01	0	0	0	0	0
Demokrasia Makini	1,226	0.01	0	0	0	0	0
Invalid/blank votes		–	–	–	–	–	–
Total	14,574,957	100	256	110	10	367	+17
Registered voters/turnout			–	–	–	–	–
Source: NEC, IPU

Reactions

Second-placed candidate Edward Lowassa called for a recount, citing irregularities. In response to the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) plan to reveal the winner of the presidential race on 29 October, Lowassa called for the cancellation of the announcement. "We demand that NEC should do a verification of the results and recount the votes." However, the NEC and CCM dismissed allegations of rigging, with NEC Chairman Damian Labuva, stating "Claims of vote rigging highly misleading it is not true at all."[56]

Allegations of misconduct

In Zanzibar, the local election commission stated that there had been "gross violations," and that the election had been annulled. A member of Civic United Front (CUF) said that annulling the result was a ploy to re-run the election it has won. CCM also alleged there were violations in at least four parliamentary constituencies it had lost and that it would go to court to contest the result, but added that the "elections were free and fair" and that voting reflected the will of the people.[56] In ensuing protests in Zanzibar, several people were arrested.[57] The annulled Zanzibar poll did not affect this overall outcome.[9]

References

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29. CCM [@ccm_tanzania] (11 July 2015). "Kikao cha Kamati Kuu (CC) kimekamilika.." (Tweet) (in Swahili). Retrieved 11 July 2015 – via Twitter.
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48. Sadallah, Mwinyi (18 October 2014). "Dk Shein apata mpinzani wa urais Zanzibar" [Dr Shein gets a presidential opponent in Zanzibar]. Mwanachi (in Swahili). Zanzibar. Retrieved 18 October 2014.
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57. Tanzania police arrest youths after Zanzibar vote scrapped Web India 123, 29 October 2015

External links

• NEC official website
• Manifestoes in Swahili: CCM (PDF), Chadema and ACT–Wazalendo (PDF)