2007 Murcian regional election

The 2007 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 27 May 2007, to elect the 7th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2007 Murcian regional election

27 May 2007
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	963,221 3.0%
Turnout	655,043 (68.0%) 2.0 pp
Leader Ramón Luis Valcárcel Pedro Saura José Antonio Pujante Party PP PSOE (IU+LV)RM Leader since 5 October 1991 18 September 2004 2006 Leader's seat Three Three Three Last election 28 seats, 56.7% 16 seats, 34.1% 1 seat, 7.2%[lower-alpha 1] Seats won 29 15 1 Seat change 1 1 0 Popular vote 379,011 207,998 40,633 Percentage 58.3% 32.0% 6.3% Swing 1.6 pp 2.1 pp 0.9 pp
Constituency results map for the Regional Assembly of Murcia
President before election Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP Elected President Ramón Luis Valcárcel PP

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Region.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• I–Lorca (comprising the municipalities of Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón).
• II–Cartagena (comprising the municipalities of Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier, San Pedro del Pinatar and Los Alcázares).
• III–Murcia (comprising the municipalities of Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera).
• IV–Northwest (comprising the municipalities of Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río).
• V–Plateau (comprising the municipalities of Yecla and Jumilla).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[2]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[2][3][4]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 27 May 2007.[1][2][3][4]

The President of the Region had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				Lead
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	N/A	68.0	58.3 29	32.0 15	6.3 1	26.3
Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA[p 1]	27 May 2007	?	?	? 27/30	? 15/17	? 1/2	?
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 2][p 3]	19 May 2007	?	?	? 28/29	? 15/16	? 1	?
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 4][p 5]	9–15 May 2007	?	?	56.2 27/28	34.8 16/17	5.8 1	21.4
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 6]	14 May 2007	?	?	? 29	? 15	? 1	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7][p 8]	27 Apr–8 May 2007	600	?	58.8 29/31	33.1 14/16	4.3 0/1	25.7
CIS[p 9][p 10]	9 Apr–6 May 2007	1,492	?	57.2 28	33.1 16	6.2 1	24.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 11][p 12][p 13]	16–24 Nov 2006	?	?	? 27/28	? 16/17	? 1	?
Emurtel/PP[p 14]	25 Apr–3 May 2006	1,050	?	56.3	33.9	4.7	22.4
2004 EP election	13 Jun 2004	N/A	49.1	58.9	36.4	2.8	22.5
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	N/A	77.1	57.4	35.0	4.3	22.4
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	N/A	70.0	56.7 28	34.1 16	5.7 1	22.6

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 27 May 2007 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	379,011	58.30	+1.64	29	+1
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	207,998	32.00	–2.11	15	–1
	United Left+The Greens of the Region of Murcia ((IU+LV)RM)^1	40,633	6.25	–0.98	1	±0
	Regional Citizens' Coalition (CCR)	8,139	1.25	New	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	3,744	0.58	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	1,006	0.15	+0.11	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	774	0.12	New	0	±0
	Centrist Party (PCTR)	124	0.02	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		8,642	1.33	–0.20
Total		650,071			45	±0
Valid votes		650,071	99.24	+0.04
Invalid votes		4,972	0.76	–0.04
Votes cast / turnout		655,043	68.01	–1.97
Abstentions		308,178	31.99	+1.97
Registered voters		963,221
Sources[5][6][7]

Popular vote PP   58.30% PSOE   32.00% (IU+LV)RM   6.25% CCR   1.25% Others   0.87% Blank ballots   1.33%

Seats PP   64.44% PSOE   33.33% (IU+LV)RM   2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		IU–LV
	%	S	%	S	%	S
One	55.2	5	33.0	2	8.6	−
Two	57.4	7	32.2	4	4.7	−
Three	61.6	13	29.8	6	5.9	1
Four	50.6	2	41.9	2	5.8	−
Five	49.0	2	34.6	1	10.7	−
Total	58.3	29	32.0	15	6.3	1
Sources[5][6][7]

Aftermath

Investiture Ramón Luis Valcárcel (PP)
Ballot →		26 June 2007
Required majority →		23 out of 45
	Yes • PP (29)	29 / 45
	No • PSOE (15) • IU–LV–RM (1)	16 / 45
	Abstentions	0 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources[7]

Notes

1. Aggregated data for IURM and LVRM in the 2003 election.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sólo Navarra y Baleares podrían cambiar de gobierno, según el sondeo de RTVE y FORTA". Europa Press (in Spanish). 27 May 2007.
2. "El Barómetro de Antena 3 y Onda Cero augura que el PP gobernaría en Murcia con una cómoda mayoría". La Verdad (in Spanish). 19 May 2007.
3. "La Asamblea no cambia, según las encuestas". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 21 May 2007.
4. "Vuelco electoral en Navarra, Baleares y Canarias y aplastante victoria del PP en Madrid". Terra (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 20 May 2007.
5. "Encuestas autonómicas". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 17 May 2007. Archived from the original on 11 May 2009.
6. "Un nuevo sondeo vuelve a otorgar la mayoría absoluta al PP". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 14 May 2007.
7. "Sondeo de Sigma Dos: El PP renovaría siete autonomías y podría perder dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
8. "Elecciones 27-M / Sondeo El Mundo-Sigma Dos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
9. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2007. CA de la Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 2697. Abril-Mayo 2007)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2007.
10. "La aritmética juega en contra del PSOE sólo en las islas Canarias". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 May 2007.
11. "El PP y el PSOE mantendrán sus gobiernos autonómicos, aunque los socialistas bajan". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
12. "Una fotocopia de la legislatura anterior". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006. Archived from the original on 16 November 2011.
13. "El voto en las comunidades. Elecciones autonómicas 2007" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2006.
14. "Valcárcel revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en la Comunidad". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 27 May 2006. Archived from the original on 21 August 2006.

Other

1. "Statute of Autonomy for the Region of Murcia of 1982". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
2. "Region of Murcia Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
3. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
4. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
5. "2008 Statistical Yearbook of the Region of Murcia. Volume I" (PDF). econet.carm.es (in Spanish). Regional Statistics Center of Murcia. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
6. Sierra Rodríguez, Javier (2015). El Sistema Electoral de la Región de Murcia: Balance y Perspectivas (PDF) (in Spanish). Murcia: Universidad de Murcia. Facultad de Derecho. p. 325. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
7. "Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Murcia (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 September 2017.