Super Bowl indicator

The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in the '70s when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

Data

Accuracy

As of January 2020, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 53 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 75%.[1][2] However, since a particular football league winning a Super Bowl and the US Stock market have no apparent connection this is almost certainly a coincidence. Therefore, there is no reason to expect it will work as a predictor of future bull or bear markets.[3]

See also

• January barometer
• Calendar effect

References

1. Benjamin Snyder. "Super Bowl Stock Predictor Has a Streak Going". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
2. Mikkelson, Barbara & David P. "The Super Bowl Indicator" at Snopes.com: Urban Legends Reference Pages.
3. Don Peppers. "Big Data. Super Bowl. Small Minds". Retrieved December 31, 2015.

Year	Team	League	Conference	Market	Correct
2000	Rams	NFL	NFC		No
2001	Ravens	exp	AFC		Yes
2002	Patriots	AFL	AFC		Yes
2003	Buccaneers	exp	NFC		Yes
2004	Patriots	AFL	AFC		No
2005	Patriots	AFL	AFC		Yes
2006	Steelers	NFL	AFC		No
2007	Colts	NFL	AFC		No
2008	Giants	NFL	NFC		No
2009	Steelers	NFL	AFC		No
2010	Saints	NFL	NFC		Yes
2011	Packers	NFL	NFC		Yes
2012	Giants	NFL	NFC		Yes
2013	Ravens	exp	AFC		No
2014	Seahawks	exp	NFC		Yes
2015	Patriots	AFL	AFC		Yes
2016	Broncos	AFL	AFC		No
2017	Patriots	AFL	AFC		No
2018	Eagles	NFL	NFC		No
2019	Patriots	AFL	AFC		No
2020	Chiefs	AFL	AFC		No