Opinion polling for the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election

Nationwide public opinion polling have been commissioned in the leadup to the Taiwanese presidential election of 2012 by various organisations, including the Apple Daily, China Times, Global Views Magazine, Liberty Times, Era News and TVBS News. Election forecasts have also been released by various organisations, including the National Chengchi University, China Times, "Gallup" Market Research (not part of the global Gallup organization),[1] Global Views Magazine, and TVBS News, through the use of different forecasting models.

Main article: 2012 Taiwanese presidential election

It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, sources such as TVBS News, United Daily News, and China Times are considered to be pro-unification, while sources such as Liberty Times are considered to be pro-independence.

Opinion polling

Two-way race
Poll Source Date of completion Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen Undecided
Democratic Progressive PartyApril 26, 201136.23% 41.16%22.61%
Trendspotting Survey and ResearchApril 26, 201133.45% 43.35%23.20%
Master Survey and ResearchApril 26, 201133.81% 43.11%23.08%
All Dimension Survey and ResearchApril 26, 201135.87% 42.93%21.20%
Era NewsApril 26, 201135.86% 41.97%22.17%
China TimesApril 27, 201133.0% 33.4%33.6%
United Daily NewsApril 27, 201136% 37%26%
Apple DailyApril 27, 201129.38% 56.21%14.41%
TVBS NewsApril 27, 2011 43%42%15%
Shih Hsin UniversityMay 7, 2011 44.2%38.3%17.5%
Global Views Survey and ResearchMay 10, 2011 38.9%38.6%22.6%
Apple DailyMay 13, 2011 53.76%31.97%14.27%
Master Survey and ResearchMay 16, 201140.6% 41.3%18.1%
China TimesMay 18, 2011 34.9%26.9%37.7%
United Daily NewsMay 18, 2011 45%27%27%
Liberty TimesMay 19, 201129.45% 31.55%39.00%
TVBS NewsMay 19, 2011 45%44%10%
Liberty TimesMay 24, 201131.34% 34.57%34.08%
TVBS NewsMay 30, 2011 46%42%10%
Democratic Progressive PartyJune 9, 201140.0% 41.3%18.7%
Apple DailyJune 14, 201143.02% 46.27%10.71%
Global Views Survey and ResearchJune 15, 2011 41.2%36.3%22.5%
TVBS NewsJune 20, 2011 44%39%16%
Era NewsJune 20, 201134.90% 37.35%27.76%
Liberty TimesJune 28, 201127.12% 31.66%41.22%
Trend Survey and ResearchJune 30, 2011 42.4%38.8%18.8%
TVBS NewsJuly 7, 2011 44%36%17%
Era NewsJuly 9, 2011 38.6%33.1%28.4%
I-tel Survey and ResearchJuly 12, 201149.64% 50.36%—
United Daily NewsJuly 13, 2011 43%37%20%
Global Views Survey and ResearchJuly 15, 2011 37.3%37.2%25.5%
Apple DailyJuly 15, 2011 42.57%40.80%16.63%
Trend Survey and ResearchJuly 17, 2011 41.6%36.3%22.1%
TVBS NewsJuly 21, 2011 45%38%16%
Liberty TimesJuly 26, 2011 36.39%34.29%29.32%
Democratic Progressive PartyJuly 27, 201149.9% 50.1%—
China TimesAugust 3, 2011 33.5%29.2%37.3%
Era NewsAugust 5, 2011 33.1%30.1%36.8%
I-tel Survey and ResearchAugust 11, 2011 50.45%49.55%—
Apple DailyAugust 12, 2011 44.27%33.73%22.00%
United Daily NewsAugust 14, 2011 44%36%18%
TVBS NewsAugust 15, 2011 46%39%14%
US Congress ReportAugust 15, 201137% 37%26%
Global Views Survey and ResearchAugust 16, 2011 39.6%38.1%22.3%
Trend Survey and ResearchAugust 24, 2011 45.7%40.2%14.1%
TVBS NewsAugust 30, 2011 46%37%17%
Focus Survey and ResearchAugust 31, 2011 41.1%39.4%19.5%
Era NewsSeptember 3, 2011 36.9%30.4%32.8%
Liberty TimesSeptember 7, 2011 36.87%33.92%29.21%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 9, 2011 44.0%43.6%12.4%
China TimesSeptember 9, 2011 43.6%33.7%22.7%
Apple DailySeptember 9, 201130.69% 51.29%18.02%
TVBS NewsSeptember 14, 2011 48%37%16%
United Daily NewsSeptember 14, 2011 46%39%14%
Liberty TimesSeptember 16, 201136.26% 36.70%27.04%
Focus Survey and ResearchSeptember 16, 2011 42.8%34.6%22.6%
Apple DailySeptember 17, 2011 42.59%33.92%23.49%
Era NewsSeptember 17, 2011 41.5%32.7%25.7%
China TimesSeptember 18, 2011 41%36%23%
Global Views Survey and ResearchSeptember 19, 2011 39.2%38.3%22.5%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 19, 201142.8% 44.3%12.9%
TVBS NewsSeptember 20, 2011 47%35%18%
TVBS NewsSeptember 22, 2011 47%37%17%
TVBS NewsSeptember 28, 2011 46%38%17%
Focus Survey and ResearchSeptember 28, 2011 43.2%35.9%11.9%
China TimesOctober 2, 2011 41.7%37.1%21.2%
China TimesOctober 3, 2011 42.3%35.3%22.4%
China TimesOctober 4, 2011 42.7%35.8%21.5%
China TimesOctober 5, 2011 43.2%34.8%22.0%
China TimesOctober 6, 2011 42.4%34.1%23.5%
TVBS NewsOctober 6, 2011 45%38%17%
China TimesOctober 7, 2011 43.0%34.5%22.5%
China TimesOctober 8, 2011 42.0%34.1%23.9%
Trend Survey and ResearchOctober 8, 2011 42.9%33.9%23.2%
China TimesOctober 9, 2011 40.9%34.1%25.0%
China TimesOctober 10, 2011 41.0%32.4%26.5%
China TimesOctober 11, 2011 41.4%33.3%25.3%
Focus Survey and ResearchOctober 12, 2011 40.6%32.0%27.4%
China TimesOctober 12, 2011 42.5%32.5%25.0%
TVBS NewsOctober 12, 2011 43%38%19%
China TimesOctober 13, 2011 43.3%33.3%23.4%
China TimesOctober 14, 2011 43.5%33.8%22.7%
United Daily NewsOctober 15, 2011 46%36%18%
China TimesOctober 15, 2011 42.7%36.3%21.0%
Taipei University of EducationOctober 15, 2011 36.5%30.6%32.9%
China TimesOctober 16, 2011 42.4%35.1%22.5%
China TimesOctober 17, 2011 43.1%35.5%21.4%
China TimesOctober 18, 2011 43.6%35.5%20.9%
China TimesOctober 19, 2011 44.2%35.7%20.1%
China TimesOctober 20, 2011 44.1%36.0%19.9%
TVBS NewsOctober 20, 2011 45%39%16%
China TimesOctober 21, 2011 44.6%36.1%19.3%
China TimesOctober 22, 2011 44.6%36.6%18.8%
China TimesOctober 23, 2011 43.9%38.4%17.7%
China TimesOctober 24, 2011 43.2%38.6%18.2%
China TimesOctober 25, 2011 44.1%38.6%17.3%
Liberty TimesOctober 26, 201135.60% 36.10%28.30%
TVBS NewsOctober 26, 2011 44%39%17%
China TimesOctober 26, 2011 44.2%39.6%16.2%
China TimesOctober 27, 2011 44.0%38.7%17.3%
China TimesOctober 28, 2011 43.6%39.0%17.4%
China TimesOctober 29, 2011 44.4%38.5%17.1%
Decision Making ResearchOctober 29, 201137.3% 40.1%22.6%
China TimesOctober 30, 2011 44.2%39.0%16.8%
TVBS NewsOctober 31, 2011 46%39%15%
China TimesNovember 3, 2011 43.5%39.7%16.8%
TVBS NewsNovember 3, 2011 47%42%10%
Focus Survey and ResearchNovember 7, 2011 37.8%36.1%26.1%
China TimesNovember 7, 2011 45.4%41.0%13.6%
China TimesNovember 8, 2011 44.1%40.9%15.0%
Liberty TimesNovember 9, 2011 37.17%36.29%26.54%
TVBS NewsNovember 10, 2011 45%44%11%
China TimesNovember 11, 2011 42.9%38.9%18.2%
United Daily NewsNovember 12, 2011 45%39%16%
China TimesNovember 14, 2011 42.4%39.2%18.4%
TVBS NewsNovember 16, 2011 46%45%9%
China TimesNovember 17, 2011 45.0%39.3%15.7%
China TimesNovember 22, 2011 46.1%41.7%12.2%
Liberty TimesNovember 23, 201136.58% 39.61%23.81%

Three-way race
Poll Source Date of Completion Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen James Soong Undecided
Era NewsJuly 1, 2011 35.8%33.9%8.6%21.6%
Trend Survey and ResearchJuly 17, 2011 35.8%32.3%10.0%21.9%
TVBS NewsJuly 21, 2011 38%36%13%12%
China TimesAugust 3, 2011 33.0%28.6%10.3%28.0%
Era NewsAugust 5, 2011 29.3%27.7%15.4%27.6%
Apple DailyAugust 12, 2011 38.82%27.82%18.95%14.41%
United Daily NewsAugust 14, 2011 38%31%15%16%
TVBS NewsAugust 15, 2011 39%35%16%9%
Global Views Survey and ResearchAugust 16, 2011 35.1%33.9%14.0%17.0%
Trend Survey and ResearchAugust 24, 2011 37.2%31.9%16.7%14.2%
TVBS NewsAugust 30, 2011 40%32%17%12%
Focus Survey and ResearchAugust 31, 2011 33.1%32.4%12.7%21.8%
Era NewsSeptember 3, 2011 35.2%28.6%14.3%21.9%
Liberty TimesSeptember 7, 2011 31.46%28.23%14.68%25.63%
I-tel Survey and ResearchSeptember 8, 2011 41.38%40.89%17.73%—
China TimesSeptember 1, 2011 38.8%31.5%13.6%16.1%
TVBS NewsSeptember 14, 2011 42%34%14%10%
United Daily NewsSeptember 14, 2011 40%32%13%14%
Liberty TimesSeptember 16, 201131.61% 31.61%13.44%23.34%
Focus Survey and ResearchSeptember 16, 2011 33.4%27.9%11.4%27.4%
Apple DailySeptember 17, 2011 39.70%29.64%16.21%14.45%
Era NewsSeptember 17, 2011 36.3%28.5%11.2%24.1%
China TimesSeptember 18, 2011 39%32%11%18%
Global Views Survey and ResearchSeptember 11, 201135.8% 36.0%10.0%18.2%
Democratic Progressive PartySeptember 11, 201136.2% 37.4%12.4%14.0%
TVBS NewsSeptember 20, 2011 43%32%14%11%
TVBS NewsSeptember 22, 2011 42%32%15%11%
TVBS NewsSeptember 28, 2011 40%33%14%13%
Focus Survey and ResearchSeptember 28, 2011 33.6%29.8%11.5%16.9%
Trend Survey and ResearchSeptember 28, 2011 36.2%28.4%9.7%25.7%
China TimesOctober 2, 2011 39.5%36.0%11.7%12.8%
China TimesOctober 3, 2011 38.7%34.7%11.1%15.5%
China TimesOctober 4, 2011 38.5%35.1%12.1%14.3%
China TimesOctober 5, 2011 38.4%33.5%12.8%15.3%
China TimesOctober 6, 2011 37.5%32.2%13.7%16.6%
Master Survey and ResearchOctober 6, 2011 37.3%36.1%12.6%13.9%
TVBS NewsOctober 6, 2011 40%35%13%13%
China TimesOctober 7, 2011 37.5%31.7%13.6%17.2%
China TimesOctober 8, 2011 37.7%31.9%13.2%17.2%
Trend Survey and ResearchOctober 8, 2011 36.2%28.4%9.7%25.7%
China TimesOctober 1, 2011 37.9%31.6%13.4%17.1%
China TimesOctober 10, 2011 38.0%30.6%13.2%18.2%
China TimesOctober 11, 2011 38.9%31.4%12.0%17.7%
Focus Survey and ResearchOctober 12, 2011 37.0%30.5%13.3%19.2%
China TimesOctober 12, 2011 40.0%31.0%11.4%17.6%
TVBS NewsOctober 12, 2011 38%34%15%13%
China TimesOctober 13, 2011 39.7%30.3%12.6%17.4%
China TimesOctober 14, 2011 39.0%31.4%11.7%17.9%
United Daily NewsOctober 15, 2011 43%32%11%14%
China TimesOctober 15, 2011 39.5%32.7%11.3%16.5%
Taipei University of EducationOctober 15, 2011 34.0%26.4%10.2%29.4%
China TimesOctober 16, 2011 39.9%32.5%10.3%17.3%
China TimesOctober 17, 2011 40.9%32.4%11.0%15.7%
China TimesOctober 18, 2011 42.0%33.7%9.4%14.9%
China TimesOctober 11, 2011 43.7%33.7%9.1%13.5%
China TimesOctober 20, 2011 42.0%34.8%9.3%13.8%
TVBS NewsOctober 20, 2011 43%35%12%10%
I-tel Survey and ResearchOctober 21, 2011 43.72%42.95%13.33%—
China TimesOctober 21, 2011 42.3%35.1%9.7%12.9%
China TimesOctober 22, 2011 42.3%35.8%9.4%12.5%
China TimesOctober 23, 2011 41.6%36.3%10.6%11.5%
China TimesOctober 24, 2011 40.6%36.9%10.6%11.9%
China TimesOctober 25, 2011 42.1%37.0%10.1%10.8%
Liberty TimesOctober 26, 2011 31.91%30.28%11.13%26.67%
TVBS NewsOctober 26, 2011 42%33%13%12%
China TimesOctober 26, 2011 42.1%37.5%9.5%10.9%
China TimesOctober 27, 2011 42.2%37.4%8.5%11.9%
China TimesOctober 28, 2011 41.3%38.0%8.3%12.4%
China TimesOctober 21, 2011 42.1%37.0%9.3%11.6%
Decision Making ResearchOctober 21, 201132.2% 35.9%13.7%18.2%
China TimesOctober 30, 2011 41.3%37.1%10.0%11.6%
China TimesOctober 31, 2011 41.8%36.0%10.4%11.8%
TVBS NewsOctober 31, 2011 39%33%9%20%
China TimesNovember 1, 2011 41.3%35.8%11.0%11.9%
China TimesNovember 2, 2011 42.0%33.8%11.4%12.8%
Focus Survey and ResearchNovember 2, 2011 38.0%30.7%9.7%21.6%
TVBS NewsNovember 3, 2011 38%35%14%13%
China TimesNovember 3, 2011 41.2%35.3%11.3%12.2%
Master Survey and ResearchNovember 4, 2011 39.5%38.6%12.9%9.1%
China TimesNovember 4, 2011 42.0%35.6%10.6%11.8%
China TimesNovember 5, 2011 41.4%37.3%10.1%11.2%
China TimesNovember 6, 2011 41.7%38.2%10.4%9.7%
Gallup Market ResearchNovember 6, 2011 32.4%25.6%8.2%33.8%
Focus Survey and ResearchNovember 7, 2011 35.0%33.2%13.1%18.7%
China TimesNovember 7, 2011 42.3%39.1%9.7%8.9%
China TimesNovember 8, 2011 42.0%39.3%9.3%9.4%
Liberty TimesNovember 1, 2011 33.58%32.97%11.17%22.27%
China TimesNovember 1, 2011 41.4%38.5%10.3%9.8%
TVBS NewsNovember 10, 2011 39%38%9%14%
China TimesNovember 10, 2011 41.6%38.1%10.7%9.6%
China TimesNovember 11, 2011 41.6%38.3%9.5%10.6%
United Daily NewsNovember 12, 2011 41%36%9%13%
China TimesNovember 14, 2011 41.2%39.0%9.4%10.4%
China TimesNovember 15, 2011 42.4%38.1%9.5%10.0%
TVBS NewsNovember 16, 201139% 39%9%12%
China TimesNovember 16, 2011 43.3%37.9%9.1%9.7%
China TimesNovember 17, 2011 43.4%37.6%9.4%9.6%
Taipei University of EducationNovember 18, 2011 37.2%30.2%7.7%24.9%
China TimesNovember 18, 2011 43.2%37.6%10.0%9.2%
Master Survey and ResearchNovember 18, 201138.7% 39.6%11.7%10.0%
Decision Making ResearchNovember 20, 201133.5% 40.1%11.2%15.2%
China TimesNovember 21, 2011 44.7%36.8%9.7%8.8%
China TimesNovember 22, 2011 43.6%38.7%9.8%7.9%
Liberty TimesNovember 23, 2011 33.39% 35.79%9.80%21.02%
Focus Survey and ResearchNovember 23, 2011 39.0%35.8%9.9%14.8%
China TimesNovember 23, 2011 42.0%39.8%9.4%8.8%
TVBS NewsNovember 23, 2011 40%38%7%15%
China TimesNovember 24, 2011 40.7%40.3%10.3%8.7%
China TimesNovember 25, 2011 42.6%39.2%9.3%8.9%
United Daily NewsNovember 27, 2011 41%35%10%14%
China TimesNovember 28, 2011 42.7%37.6%9.5%10.2%
YouGov Market ResearchNovember 28, 2011 34%26%10%30%
China TimesNovember 29, 2011 43.0%35.2%8.4%13.4%
China TimesNovember 30, 2011 41.8%35.1%8.3%14.8%
Focus Survey and ResearchNovember 30, 2011 36.7%32.1%10.0%21.2%
TVBS NewsDecember 1, 2011 40%34%7%19%
China TimesDecember 2, 2011 43.5%36.1%7.0%13.4%
China TimesDecember 2, 2011 43.4%37.5%7.7%11.4%
TVBS NewsDecember 3, 2011 38%32%12%18%
United Daily NewsDecember 3, 2011 39%32%10%17%
Apple DailyDecember 3, 2011 47.04%36.90%12.11%3.95%
China TimesDecember 3, 2011 39.9%32.6%8.9%18.6%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 5, 2011 39.0%32.9%7.0%21.2%
China TimesDecember 5, 2011 43.7%37.2%8.3%10.8%
Shih Hsin UniversityDecember 5, 2011 33.9%28.6%8.3%30.7%
China TimesDecember 6, 2011 42.0%36.9%9.8%11.3%
China TimesDecember 7, 2011 43.2%36.3%9.0%11.5%
Taipei University of EducationDecember 7, 2011 35.5%27.7%7.2%29.6%
TVBS NewsDecember 7, 2011 41%37%8%14%
Master Survey and ResearchDecember 8, 201135.4% 35.9%10.8%17.9%
China TimesDecember 8, 2011 43.9%35.9%8.9%11.3%
China TimesDecember 9, 2011 43.2%36.4%8.7%11.7%
TVBS NewsDecember 10, 201139% 39%6%16%
China TimesDecember 10, 2011 42.7%35.1%7.1%15.1%
United Daily NewsDecember 10, 2011 40%33%10%16%
United Daily NewsDecember 12, 2011 42%35%10%13%
China TimesDecember 12, 2011 41.3%36.8%8.4%13.5%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 12, 2011 36.3%36.0%5.9%20.1%
China TimesDecember 13, 2011 40.1%39.1%8.0%12.8%
TVBS NewsDecember 14, 2011 40%38%7%15%
China TimesDecember 14, 2011 39.7%38.7%8.2%13.4%
Liberty TimesDecember 15, 2011 34.50%33.26%10.81%21.43%
China TimesDecember 15, 2011 41.8%37.1%8.2%13.8%
China TimesDecember 16, 2011 41.8%36.7%8.2%14.2%
TVBS NewsDecember 17, 2011 40%36%7%17%
China TimesDecember 17, 2011 38.5%37.7%7.7%16%
United Daily NewsDecember 17, 2011 41%33%10%15%
China TimesDecember 19, 2011 41.9%37.3%7.2%13.6%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 19, 2011 36.5%33.4%8.5%21.6%
China TimesDecember 20, 2011 42.2%36.8%7.4%13.6%
China TimesDecember 21, 2011 42.3%37.1%6.6%14.0%
Taipei University of EducationDecember 21, 2011 40.2%32.2%5.5%22.1%
China TimesDecember 22, 2011 42.3%36.0%7.0%14.7%
Liberty TimesDecember 22, 2011 35.77%35.05%9.70%19.48%
TVBSDecember 22, 2011 41%35%8%16%
China TimesDecember 23, 2011 42.2%36.2%6.8%14.8%
Master Survey and ResearchDecember 24, 2011 39.5%39.1%11.1%10.3%
Decision Making ResearchDecember 24, 201138.3% 40.4%7.3%14.0%
China TimesDecember 26, 2011 41.3%37.1%7.5%14.1%
China TimesDecember 26, 2011 41.6%36.8%6.8%14.8%
Trendspotting Survey and ResearchDecember 26, 2011 33.3%29.0%7.0%30.7%
TVBS NewsDecember 27, 2011 44%38%6%12%
China TimesDecember 27, 2011 40.7%38.0%7.7%13.6%
China TimesDecember 28, 2011 41.3%38.5%6.6%13.6%
TVBS NewsDecember 29, 2011 44%35%7%13%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 29, 2011 37.6%31.5%6.6%24.4%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 30, 2011 35.9%32.6%7.3%24.4%
Taipei University of EducationDecember 30, 2011 42.2%35.7%6.2%15.9%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 31, 2011 37.1%33.3%6.9%22.7%
Master Survey and ResearchDecember 31, 2011 38.8%37.8%11.6%11.8%
Focus Survey and ResearchJanuary 1, 2011 37.2%33.1%7.2%22.5%
United Daily NewsJanuary 2, 2012 44%36%7%13%
China TimesJanuary 2, 2012 39.536.5%5.8%18.2%
Focus Survey and ResearchJanuary 2, 2012 37.2%33.1%7.2%22.5%
TVBS NewsJanuary 2, 2012 45%37%6%13%
China TimesJanuary 2, 2012 43.3%38.4%6.8%11.5%

Television debates performance rating

Note that the percentages reflect the proportion of valid respondents who rated a particular candidate as performing the best during the presidential and vice-presidential television debates.

Presidential debates
Forecast Source Date of Release Ma Ying-jeou Tsai Ing-wen James Soong Undecided
China TimesDecember 3, 2011 31.7%29.8%13.6%24.9%
Apple DailyDecember 3, 2011 47.61%35.49%14.37%2.53%
United Daily NewsDecember 3, 2011 39%25%15%6%
TVBS NewsDecember 3, 2011 30%27%20%23%
Shih Hsin UniversityDecember 3, 201130.5% 31.0%14.5%24.1%
China TimesDecember 17, 201129.1% 32.1%12.5%26.3%
United Daily NewsDecember 17, 2011 36%29%17%4%
TVBS NewsDecember 17, 201128% 33%15%24%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 19, 201133.9% 37.7%14.1%14.3%
I-tel Survey and ResearchDecember 20, 201140.10% 50.61%9.29%－

Vice-presidential debates
Forecast Source Date of Release Wu Den-yih Su Jia-chyuan Lin Ruey-shiung Undecided
China TimesDecember 10, 2011 35.3%33.7%4.4%26.6%
TVBS NewsDecember 10, 201138% 39%6%17%
United Daily NewsDecember 10, 2011 40%30%9%5%
Focus Survey and ResearchDecember 12, 201133.8% 38.4%6.5%21.3%

Election forecasting

Polling firm forecasts
Forecast Source Date of Release Voter Turnout Tsai Ing-wen Ma Ying-jeou James Soong
Global Views Survey and ResearchJune 15, 201175.3% 51.8%48.2%—
Global Views Survey and ResearchJune 22, 2011— 53.2%46.8%—
Democratic Progressive PartyJuly 27, 201175% 50.1%49.9%—
Global Views Survey and ResearchAugust 16, 2011— 53%47%—
Global Views Survey and ResearchOctober 12, 2011— 52%48%—
China TimesNovember 1, 2011—41% 47%12%
Gallup Market ResearchNovember 6, 2011—43.1% 44.2%12.8%
China TimesNovember 10, 2011—42.2% 46.0%11.8%
TVBS NewsNovember 10, 201176.8% 47.3%45.8%6.9%
Gallup Market ResearchDecember 1, 2011－42.16% 46.13%11.71%
TVBS NewsDecember 7, 201178.9%47% 48%5%
Gallup Market ResearchDecember 14, 2011－41.6% 48.2%10.3%
TVBS NewsDecember 22, 201180.3%46% 48%6%
TVBS NewsDecember 29, 201177.9%45% 50%5%
Democratic Progressive PartyJanuary 2, 201279% 48%47%5%

Prediction market forecasts

Note that as the election forecast reports released by the National Chengchi University are based on models that involve the use of prediction markets as raw data, as opposed to opinion polling, the percentages may not add up to 100%.[2]

Forecast Source Date of Release Tsai Ing-wen Ma Ying-jeou James Soong
National Chengchi UniversityApril 27, 2011 50.5%49.9%—
National Chengchi UniversityMay 4, 2011 50.6%47.9%—
National Chengchi UniversityMay 20, 2011 51.3%48.0%—
National Chengchi UniversityJune 13, 2011 50.9%48.4%—
National Chengchi UniversityAugust 1, 201146.8% 49.4%—
National Chengchi UniversityAugust 8, 201146.3% 48.2%—
National Chengchi UniversityAugust 15, 201145.7% 48.5%—
National Chengchi UniversityAugust 29, 201149.4% 50.3%—
National Chengchi UniversitySeptember 9, 201147.9% 51.4%—
National Chengchi UniversitySeptember 27, 201147.2% 49.5%—
National Chengchi UniversityOctober 11, 201146.2% 51.5%—
National Chengchi UniversityOctober 21, 201149.2% 49.6%—
National Chengchi UniversityOctober 26, 201149.6% 49.6%—
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 1, 2011 48.9%48.4%4.4%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 7, 2011 49.5%48.3%7.5%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 11, 2011 49.9%46.1%7.5%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 15, 2011 49.5%46.1%8.4%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 17, 2011 50.0%46.1%8.1%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 22, 2011 48.6%44.1%8.2%
National Chengchi UniversityNovember 28, 2011 50.0%43.2%10.1%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 2, 2011 49.9%41.9%11.7%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 4, 2011 50.1%42.1%10.8%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 7, 2011 50.1%42.6%11.2%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 11, 2011 50.3%41.6%10.9%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 16, 2011 51.7%41.4%9.1%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 18, 2011 51.9%41.6%8.6%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 21, 2011 51.3%42.0%8.3%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 26, 2011 50.4%43.0%7.7%
National Chengchi UniversityDecember 29, 2011 50.5%44.1%7.4%
National Chengchi UniversityJanuary 2, 2012 50.3%43.6%10.1%
National Chengchi UniversityJanuary 3, 2012 49.8%42.6%10.7%

Election forecast maps
Forecast SourceNational Chengchi UniversityNational Chengchi UniversityNational Chengchi University
Date of ReleaseSeptember 9, 2011September 27, 2011November 11, 2011
Forecast Map
Date of ReleaseNovember 17, 2011December 16, 2011December 21, 2011
Forecast Map
Forecast SourceNational Chengchi UniversityNational Chengchi UniversityNational Chengchi University
Date of ReleaseDecember 26, 2011January 2, 2012January 3, 2012
Forecast Map
Legend
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Tsai Ing-Wen is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Ma Ying-Jeou is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where James Soong is forecast to lead.

References
  1. Stewart, Chris (December 23, 2006). "Gallup vs Gallup Taiwan". Taipei Times. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  2. The Exchange of Future Events, The Center for Prediction Markets, National Chengchi University, November 17, 2011


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