Opinion polling for the 2008 Austrian legislative election

A legislative snap election for the National Council in Austria was held on 28 September 2008.[1] The previous election was held on 1 October 2006. The election (the 24th in Austrian history) was caused by the withdrawal of Austrian People's Party leader Wilhelm Molterer from the governing grand coalition (led by the Social Democratic Party of Austria) on 7 July 2008.[2] Due to dissatisfaction with the grand coalition and the two main parties, it was widely expected to be a realigning election, with gains for the opposition and up to seven parties expected to be in the National Council after the election.[3][4][5][6] The losses for the government parties (both the SPÖ and the ÖVP had the worst election result in history) resulted in strong gains for the far right, while neither the Liberal Forum nor the Citizens' Forum Austria (both of which were considered to have chances of gaining seats) gained as much as 2% of the vote, defying earlier expectations. The result of the election was seen as strong for the far-right and in support of Eurosceptics.[7]

2008 Austrian legislative election
28 September 2008
183 seats in the National Council of Austria
92 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Werner Faymann Wilhelm Molterer Heinz-Christian Strache
Party SPÖ ÖVP FPÖ
Leader since 2008 2007 2005
Leader's seat 9 Vienna 4D Traunviertel 9D Vienna South
Last election 68 seats, 35.34% 66 seats, 34.33% 21 seats, 11.04%
Seats won 57 51 34
Seat change 11 15 13
Popular vote 1,430,206 1,269,656 857,029
Percentage 29.26% 25.98% 17.54%
Swing 6.08% 8.35% 6.50%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Jörg Haider Alexander Van der Bellen Heide Schmidt
Party BZÖ Greens LiF
Leader since 2008 1997 2008
Leader's seat 2A Klagenfurt 9F Vienna North-West 9F Vienna North-West
Last election 7 seats, 4.11% 21 seats, 11.05% did not contest on their own
Seats won 21 20 0
Seat change 14 1 0
Popular vote 522,933 509,936 102,249
Percentage 10.70% 10.43% 2.09%
Swing 6.59% 0.62% 2.09%
Chancellor before election

Alfred Gusenbauer
SPÖ

 Elected Chancellor

Werner Faymann
SPÖ

Molterer resigned as party chairman as a result of the losses suffered by the ÖVP and was replaced by environment minister Josef Pröll; the Greens' federal spokesman Alexander Van der Bellen (in office since 1997) also resigned and was replaced by his deputy, Eva Glawischnig. Due to the LIF's failure to enter parliament on its own, LIF founder Heide Schmidt and financier Hans-Peter Haselsteiner both declared their complete withdrawal from politics, and the LIF's fate was seen as uncertain. Shortly after the election, BZÖ leader and Carinthian governor Jörg Haider died in a car accident.

Opinion polling
Agency Date SPÖ ÖVP GRÜNE FPÖ BZÖ LIF FRITZ KPÖ RETTÖ DC Others SKÖ MATIN
Election 2006 2006-10-01 35.3 34.3 11.5 11.0 4.1 SPÖ — 1.0 — — 3.1 — —
OGM 2008-06-21 33 33 14 16 4 — — — — — — ~ #
market 2008-07-02 27 33 14 21 3 — — — — — 2 ~ #
Fessel-GfK 2008-07-08 28 35 14 20 3 — — — — — — ~ #
market 2008-07-09 26 33 14 22 4 — — — — — 1 ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-10 27 32 16 19 4 — — — — — 2 ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-10 21 23 14 18 5 2 7 2 — — 2 (2) (4)
Integral 2008-07-12 28 31 14 16 4 — 5 — — — 2 ~ #
OGM 2008-07-13 30 33 14 18 3 — — — — — 2 ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-17 24 26 16 19 5 2 6 — — — — ~ #
Humaninstitut 2008-07-17 25 28 11 19 2 — — — — — 15 ~ #
IMAS 2008-07-19 24 29 15 20 4 — 5 — — — 3 ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-25 27 30 16 19 5 — — — — — — ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-25 25 29 14 15 7 4 6 — — — — ~ #
OGM 2008-07-29 25 30 13 17 4 4 5 — — — 2 ~ #
IMAS 2008-07-29 25 29 15 18 6 — — — — — — ~ #
Gallup 2008-07-31 23 26 15 17 7 5 7 — — — — ~ #
Fessel-GfK 2008-08-04 25 29 12–13 17–18 2–3 3–4 4–5 — — — — ~ #
market 2008-08-07 26 29 14 20 3 3 4 — — — — ~ #
Gallup 2008-08-08 26 26 14 19 6 3 6 — — — — ~ #
Gallup 2008-08-14 27 28 15 17 5 3 5 — — — — ~ #
OGM 2008-08-16 26 31 13 17 4 4 4 — — — — ~ #
market 2008-08-20 26 27 14 20 5 3 4 — — — 1 ~ #
IMAS 2008-08-20 27–29 27–29 12–14 17–19 6–8 — — — — — 7–9 ~ #
Gallup 2008-08-24 25 26 15 18 6 4 4 — — — 2 ~ #
market 2008-08-27 28 26 13 20 4 3 3 — — — 3 ~ #
Gallup 2008-08-28 27 26 12 19 5 4 4 — — — 3 ~ #
IFES 2008-08-29 26 26 16 15 5 — 4 — — — 8 ~ #
IMAS 2008-08-29 26–28 25–27 12–14 17–19 6–8 3–4 3–4 1–2 1–2 0–1 — ~ #
Fessel-GfK 2008-08-30 28 26 12 17 >4 4 — — — — <9 ~ #
OGM 2008-08-31 27 28 12 18 6 4 3 — — — 2 ~ #
market 2008-09-03 28 25 12 20 5 3 3 1 1 — 2 ~ #
Gallup 2008-09-04 28 27 12 17 6 4 3 — — — 3 ~ #
Humaninstitut 2008-09-04 32 19 12 19 10 4 4 — — — — ~ #
OGM 2008-09-06 29 27 12 17 7 4 2 — — — 2 ~ #
GMK 2008-09-08 30 27 11 18 6 3 4 — — — — ~ #
market 2008-09-10 29 27 11 18 7 3 2 — — — 3 ~ #
Fessel-GfK 2008-09-11 25.8 28.5 17 12.7 6.7 2.1 1.2 3.3 — 1.5 1.2 ~ #
Gallup 2008-09-12 28 27 12 16 6 4 3 — — — 4 ~ #
IFES 2008-09-12 27 27 13 17 5 4 3 — — — 4 ~ #
Spectra 2008-09-12 28–31 26–29 11–13 15–17 7–9 2–4 1–3 — — — — ~ #
OGM 2008-09-13 28 26 12 18 8 4 2 — — — 2 ~ #
Integral 2008-09-16 28 28 12 18 7 4 2 — — — 2 ~ #
market 2008-09-16 29 26 11 20 6 3 2 — — — 3 ~ #
Gallup 2008-09-18 28 26 12 17 8 4 3 — — — 2 ~ #
OGM 2008-09-20 29 26 11 18 8 4 2 — — — 2 ~ #
market 2008-09-23 29 27 10 19 8 3 2 — — — 2 ~ #
IFES 2008-09-26 27 27 12 16 7 5 2 — — — 4 ~ #
Gallup 2008-09-26 29 27 12 17 8 3 2 — — — 2 ~ #
Results 2008-09-28 29.3 26.0 10.4 17.5 10.7 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 ~ #

~ Failed to collect the required signatures.
# Decided not to contest the election.

Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
Agency Date Faymann
(SPÖ)		 Molterer
(ÖVP)		 Van der Bellen
(GRÜNE)		 Strache
(FPÖ)		 Haider
(BZÖ)		 Schmidt
(LIF)		 Dinkhauser
(FRITZ)
market 2008-07-09 26 29 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-07-10 40 31 — — — — —
OGM 2008-07-13 19 18 10 11 3* — —
Gallup 2008-07-17 38 31 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-07-25 39 30 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-07-31 42 23 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-08-09 45 26 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-08-09 40 27 — — — — —
OGM 2008-08-17 22 19 12 8 6 — —
Gallup 2008-08-24 42 25 — — — — —
market 2008-08-27 35 20 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-08-28 46 27 — — — — —
OGM 2008-08-31 21 18 12 8 6 2 4
market 2008-09-03 35 21 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-09-04 45 28 — — — — —
OGM 2008-09-06 24 17 12 8 8 4 3
market 2008-09-10 35 20 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-09-12 47 31 — — — — —
Spectra 2008-09-12 28 17 11 10 9 4 3
OGM 2008-09-13 22 15 9 11 9 4 3
market 2008-09-16 33 23 — — — — —
Gallup 2008-09-18 45 32 — — — — —
OGM 2009-09-20 23 16 8 10 9 4 2

* Westenthaler was polled instead of Haider before it was announced that Westenthaler would not be the leading candidate.

Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
Agency Date SPÖ–ÖVP ÖVP–SPÖ SPÖ–GRÜNE ÖVP–GRÜNE SPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ) ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
OGM 14 July 2008 7 9 9 13 6 9
Gallup 4 August 2008 16° 16° 27 18 7 9
OGM 5 September 2008 10 10 11 9 11 13
Gallup 15 September 2008 18° 18° 20 13 17 5

° The two types of grand coalition were not polled separately.

State polls
State Agency Date SPÖ ÖVP GRÜNE FPÖ BZÖ LIF FRITZ Others
Salzburg IFG 2008-07-10 23 37 11 17 5 — 4 3
Salzburg IFG 2008-09-11 27 31 11 15 7 3 2 4
Upper Austria Spectra 2008-08-02 28–30 26–28 13–15 16–18 4–6 1–3 — 6–8
Vienna OEKONSULT 2008-08-17 39.20 16.04 17.08 20.18 3.23 — — 4.27
Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)
State Agency Date Faymann (SPÖ) Molterer (ÖVP) Strache (FPÖ) Van der Bellen (GRÜNE) Haider (BZÖ)
Upper Austria Spectra 2008-08-02 44 26 — — —
Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)
State Agency Date SPÖ–ÖVP SPÖ–GRÜNE ÖVP–GRÜNE SPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ) ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
Salzburg IFG 10 July 2008 16 17 22 9 19
Salzburg IFG 11 September 2008 26 11 18 11 10

References
  1. "28. September als Neuwahltermin fix" (in German). Orf.at. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  2. "BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Austria ruling coalition crumbles". News.bbc.co.uk. 7 July 2008. Archived from the original on 19 December 2008. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  3. Bronner Online AG. "derStandard.at". Derstandard.at. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  4. "Die Zeit ist reif für einen Umbruch « DiePresse.com". Diepresse.com. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  5. "Datum 7-8/08 – Seiten der Zeit: Hajek bloggt: Die Unentschlossenen. Das geheime Wesen". Datum.at. Archived from the original on 25 December 2010. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  6. "Listenrekord bei NR-Wahlen | kurier.at". Kurier.at. Archived from the original on February 27, 2012. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
  7. Pancevski, Bojan (29 September 2008). "Far Right storms election as Austrians back anti-EU rhetoric – Times Online". The Times. London. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
Political parties
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.