Next Supreme Leader of Iran election


As of February 2021, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have wrote on potential candidates.

Supreme Leader of Iran election
TBA
88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win
Islamic Republic of Iran
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Constitutional eligibility
Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent supreme leader dies in office or has been dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and select his successor as soon as they can.[1] According to the same article, until the selection is made, a 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council.[1]

Alleged plans

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[2]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members, had given three names the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[3] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[3] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[3] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Raisi and Khatami are considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[4]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators

The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Hassan Rouhani Hassan Khomeini Mohsen Araki Alireza Arafi
72 years, 84 days 48 years, 63 days c. 64–65 years c. 61–62 years
[5] [5][1][6][7][8] [1][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] [1]
Ebrahim Raisi Mojtaba Khamenei Sadeq Larijani Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri
60 years, 52 days 51 years, 149 days 59 years, 329 days c. 59–60 years
[1][8][9][10][12][13][14][16][17][18][19][20] [1][6][9][11][13][16][17][18][19] [1] [6][8][10][11][13][18][19]

Deceased people

People mentioned below had been regarded as potential candidates during their lifetime, but are now deceased:

Abbas Vaez-Tabasi Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi Ebrahim Amini Mohammad Yazdi Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi
1935–2016 1934–2017 1948–2018 1925–2020 1931–2020 1934–2021
[6] [5][6][7][21] [5][6][7][9][8][13][14][16][17][21][22] [5] [6] [6][7][13][19]

Further reading
  • Nader, Alireza; Bohandy, S. R. (2011). The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran (PDF). Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation. ISBN 9780833051998.
  • Opinion Poll: Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? (in Persian), BBC Persian, 22 February 2016

References
  1. Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401, archived from the original on 2020-12-06, retrieved 2020-12-11
  2. Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (21 October 2014), Williams, Alison (ed.), "Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani", Reuters, archived from the original on 16 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  3. "Is Iran's Next Supreme Leader Already Chosen?", Radio Farda, 18 June 2019, archived from the original on 18 June 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  4. "Reports And Denials On Succession Planning For Khamenei", Radio Farda, 14 February 2019, archived from the original on 14 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  5. Kamali Dehghan, Saeed (31 October 2014), "When the time comes, who will succeed Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?", The Guardian, archived from the original on 20 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  6. Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (13 December 2015), "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?", BBC, archived from the original on 3 February 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  7. Bordbar, Behdad (15 July 2015), "Who will be Iran's next supreme leader?", Al-Monitor, archived from the original on 22 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  8. Perteghella, Annalisa (18 May 2017), "The "Other" Election: After Khamenei Who Will Succeed?", Italian Institute for International Political Studies, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  9. "Predicting the Unpredictable in Iranian Politics", Stratfor, 8 March 2017, archived from the original on 8 March 2017, retrieved 15 March 2017
  10. Bozorgmehr, Najmeh (23 January 2020), "Iran: the unspoken battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei", The Financial Times, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  11. Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, archived from the original on 8 November 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  12. Dehghanpisheh, Babak (9 May 2017), Graff, Peter (ed.), "Iran Guards look beyond election to next supreme leader", Reuters, archived from the original on 9 May 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  13. Vakil, Sanam; Rassam, Hossein (May–June 2017), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic After Khamenei", Foreign Affairs, archived from the original on 2017-04-11, retrieved 30 December 2015
  14. MacMillan, Arthur (10 February 2019), "Explainer: How Iran will pick its next supreme leader", The National, archived from the original on 10 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  15. Samadi, Mona (11 February 2020), "As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?", Middle East Institute, archived from the original on 23 February 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  16. Abdo, Geneive (4 February 2019), "Iran's Battle Over Khamenei's Successor is Just Getting Started", Center for the National Interest, archived from the original on 6 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  17. Ganji, Akbar (4 August 2017), "Khamenei's New Potential Hard-line Successor", Radio Farda, archived from the original on 2 March 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  18. Funes, Rossina; Gladin, Maeve (24 May 2019), "Khamenei is turning 80: Who will be next Iran's Supreme Leader?", University of Navarra, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  19. "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader", BBC Monitoring, 5 December 2018, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  20. Bob, Yonah Jeremy (8 August 2019), "Has Ebrahim Raisi been tagged as Iran's next Supreme Leader?", The Jerusalem Post, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  21. Sadjadpour, Karim (2009), "Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader" (PDF), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, archived (PDF) from the original on 25 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  22. Lim, Kevjn (10 January 2019), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader Is Dead", Foreign Policy, archived from the original on 11 January 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
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