Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms

Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the President of the United States to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his term in office.[1] The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly and annual basis. The BLS also provides numbers for private-sector non-farm employment and other subsets of the aggregate.

Job Growth by U.S. President, measured as cumulative percentage change from month after inauguration to end of term.

Among the Presidents from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump, President Bill Clinton created the most jobs at 18.6 million, while Ronald Reagan had the largest cumulative percentage increase in jobs at 15.6%. This computation treats the base month as the December before the month of inauguration and last month as December of the final full year in office.[2] Using the month after inauguration as the base month as shown in the accompanying diagram, the top four Presidents in terms of cumulative job creation percentage are Clinton(D), Reagan(R), Carter(D), and Obama(D).[3]

Methodology

The jobs numbers are reported as part of the "Monthly Employment Situation Report" from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The widely publicized "job creation" number is a net figure, computed as jobs created less jobs lost during the survey month. Estimates are generated via the "Establishment Survey", also known as the payroll survey or Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The Establishment Survey as of May 2020 included "approximately 145,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 697,000 worksites." The Establishment Survey publishes jobs, hours, and earnings estimates at varying levels of detail (nation, state, metro area) and for different industries.[4]

The sample establishments are drawn from private non-farm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on non-farm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave. Further, BLS explains that: "The CES employment series are estimates of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, not an estimate of employed persons; an individual with two jobs is counted twice by the payroll survey. The CES employment series excludes employees in agriculture, private households, and the self-employed." These monthly job counts are revised (sometimes by 20% or more) within 90 days to reflect additional data, seasonal adjustment models, and annual adjustments resulting from unemployment insurance filings. Figures are seasonally adjusted, which removes from the series the effects of normal variation from recurring events within a year, such as holidays and weather changes, and helps reveal underlying economic trends.[4]

Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post explained in 2020 that economists debate which month to use as the base for counting job creation, between either January of the first term (the month of inauguration) or February. Survey data is typically from around the 12th of the month, so January numbers are counted before the new President takes office. For that reason, The Washington Post uses the February jobs level as the starting point. For example, for President Obama, the computation takes the 145.815 million jobs of February 2017 and subtracts the 133.312 million jobs of February 2009 to arrive at the 12.503 million figure. Four of the top five Presidents in terms of total jobs added were Democrats. For these 13 Presidents beginning with Truman, total job creation was 2.4 times faster under Democrats, 70.5 million for the 7 Democratic Presidents and 29.1 million for the 6 Republican Presidents. The Democratic Presidents were in office for a total of 429 months, with 164,000 jobs per month added on average, while the Republicans were in office for 475 months, with a 61,000 jobs added per month average. The table below summarizes the results for the past 7 Presidents, with data through December 2020 for President Trump:[5]

Job Creation by President Carter Reagan H.W. Bush 41 Clinton G.W. Bush 43 Obama Trump
Total Jobs Added (Millions)[5] 10.117 16.322 2.617 22.745 0.523 12.503 -4.095
Months in Office 48 96 48 96 96 96 47
Jobs Added per Month (Avg. in Thousands) 211 170 55 237 5 130 +95

Controversy
U.S. Changes in Employment for Selected Time Periods

The exact usefulness of these numbers is debated. On the one hand, they include only nonfarm payroll employment, which excludes certain types of jobs, notably the self-employed. However, as a semi-balancing factor, they count one person with two jobs as two employed persons.

Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a President's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery). The data in columns shown for September (in italic) correlate better with the federal fiscal year starting each October, showing the impact of a given president and resulting federal budget on the job count.

Moreover, according to the United States Constitution, the United States Congress is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of Presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any President realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists, largely because the alternative (household survey numbers) is thought to drastically overestimate employment.

Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.

The Heritage Foundation has pointed to Alan Greenspan's general economic optimism (in 2004) as support for household survey numbers over payroll numbers. However, the subsequent downturn, and Greenspan's admission of having been wrong, may have discredited that view.

Job creation by term

Numbers listed from 1941 and onward are BLS data[6] of nonfarm jobs (in thousands), and are shown from the year beginning and ending each presidential term. The monthly statistics are quoted from January, as U.S. presidents take office at the end of that month.

U.S. president Party Term years Start jobs End jobs Created Pct Chg Ave annual increase
Harding/Coolidge R 1921–1925 25,000 ** 29,500 ** + 4,500 ** +18.00% ** +4.23% **
Calvin Coolidge R 1925–1929 29,500 ** 32,100 ** + 2,600 ** +8.81% ** +2.13% **
Herbert Hoover R 1929–1933 32,100 ** 25,700 ** -6,400 ** -19.94% ** -5.41% **
Franklin Roosevelt D 1933–1937 25,700 ** 31,200 ** + 5,500 ** +21.40% ** +4.97% **
Franklin Roosevelt D 1937–1941 31,200 ** 34,480 ** + 3,280 ** +10.51% ** +2.53% **
Franklin Roosevelt D 1941–1945 34,480 41,903 + 7,423 +21.53% +5.00%
Roosevelt/Truman D 1945–1949 41,903 44,675 + 2,772 +6.62% +1.61%
Harry Truman D 1949–1953 44,675 50,145 + 5,470 +12.24% +2.93%
Dwight Eisenhower R 1953–1957 50,145 52,888 + 2,743 +5.47% +1.34%
Dwight Eisenhower R 1957–1961 52,888 53,683 + 795 +1.50% +0.87%
Kennedy/Johnson D 1961–1965 53,683 59,583 + 5,900 +10.99% +2.64%
Lyndon Johnson D 1965–1969 59,583 69,438 + 9,855 +16.54% +3.90%
Richard Nixon R 1969–1973 69,438 76,621 + 6,183 +10.34% +2.23%
Nixon/Ford R 1973–1977 76,621 80,692 + 5,071 +5.31% +1.68%
Jimmy Carter D 1977–1981 80,692 91,037 +10,345 +12.82% +3.21%
Ronald Reagan R 1981–1985 91,037 96,373 + 5,336 +5.86% +1.47%
Ronald Reagan R 1985–1989 96,373 107,168 +10,795 +11.20% +2.80%
George H. W. Bush R 1989–1993 107,168 109,805 + 1,917 +2.46% +0.45%
Bill Clinton D 1993–1997 109,805 121,381 +12,296 +10.54% +2.85%
Bill Clinton D 1997–2001 121,381 132,705 +11,324 +9.33% +2.33%
George W. Bush R 2001–2005 132,705 132,794 + 89 +0.07% +0.02%
George W. Bush R 2005–2009 132,794 134,055 + 1,261 +0.95% +0.24%
Barack Obama D 2009–2013 134,055 135,263 + 1,208 +0.90% +0.22%
Barack Obama D 2013–2017 135,263 145,627 + 10,364 +7.66% +1.86%[7]
Donald Trump R 2017-2021 145,627 142,624 - 3,003 - 2.06% - 0.52%[8]
Joe Biden D 2021-2025 142,624 Pending Pending Pending Pending

**Approximate

For information on the United States public debt divided by Gross Domestic Product by Presidential term, see National Debt by U.S. presidential terms

Graphs and data

The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database contains the total nonfarm employment level. A graph with a simple download of data on jobs by month since the late 1930s is available here:

.[9]

  1. NYT-Laura D'Andrea Tyson-Jobs Deficit, Investment Deficit, Fiscal Deficit-July 2011
  2. Which President Created the Most Jobs?-February 26, 2020
  3. FRED Payems-FRED All Employees, Total Non-Farm-May 31, 2020
  4. Monthly Employment Situation Report: Quick Guide to Methods and Measurement Issues-Retrieved May 31, 2020
  5. "Biden's claim that Trump will be the first president with a negative jobs record". October 2, 2020 – via washingtonpost.com.
  6. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Databases & Tools, Top Picks", Total Nonfarm Employment - Seasonally Adjusted
  7. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
  8. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
  9. Calculated Risk-Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs by President-October 5, 2014

http://www.statisticbrain.com/jobs-created-during-each-presidency-term/

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