Claudia Sahm

Claudia R. Sahm (née Foster) is an American economist. She was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth,[1] and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007-2019.[2] Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance.[3] She is the eponymous author of the Sahm Rule for identifying recessions in real-time.[4][5]

Claudia R. Sahm
Claudia Sahm wearing FRED t-shirt for her Sahm Rule being added to the economic database.
Born
Claudia Foster
NationalityAmerican
Alma materDenison University
University of Michigan
Known for Sahm Rule
Children2
Scientific career
InstitutionsBrookings Institution
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Websitehttps://sites.google.com/site/claudiasahm/

Life

In 1998, Sahm received a bachelor's degree in economics from Denison University, where she also studied political science and German.[2] From 1998 to 1999, Sahm was a Fulbright Scholar at the Technical University of Dresden, where she studied economic transitions in post-socialist countries.[3] From 1999 to 2001, Sahm worked at the Brookings Institution as a research assistant.[3] Sahm began her PhD at the University of Michigan in 2001, guided by Matthew D. Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball, completing her thesis Risk, Tolerance and Asset Allocation in 2007.[6]

In 2007, Sahm began working at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as an economist, where her work was focused on examining consumer spending. Her first position was studying the impact of tax rebates.[7] In 2013 she was promoted to Senior Economist, and in 2015 to Principal Economist, at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.[2]

Sahm was a Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers for the Obama Administration, where she worked on macroeconomic developments and housing policy from 2015 to 2016.[8] She studied the impact of unusual weather on economic data.[9] She showed that people were less willing to take economic risks as they age.[10][11]

In September 2017 Sahm was promoted to Section Chief of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs.[2] From October 2019 to September 2020, she was director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.[12] In September 2020, Sahm joined Bloomberg Opinion as a contributor[13] and in October 2020, she joined The New York Times as a Contributing Opinion Writer.[14]

Research

Sahm conducts research in macroeconomics with a focus on business cycles, fiscal stimulus and consumer behavior.

Her research has appeared in numerous FEDS notes,[15] books, and major academic journals.[16][17][18]

Outside the academic audience Sahm is known for the Sahm Rule, also known as the "Sahm Recession Indicator":[19]

One reliable early signal of recession is the Sahm Rule: A downturn is probably occurring if the three-month average of the unemployment rate has risen by at least 0.5 percentage point above its low point in the previous 12months. This rule [...] has signaled every recession since 1970 with virtually no false positives. [20]

The Sahm Rule tracks the unemployment rate to detect upcoming and current recessions.[21][22]

Other work

Sahm maintains the economics blog MacroMom.[23]

Sahm campaigns for more diversity in economics.[24][25] She petitioned the American Economic Association to remove sexist comments on the website Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR).[26] She is also known for her critiques of the culture of the economics profession, citing many specific examples of bullying and harassment she experienced, observed, or had reported to her by others, often directed at female and minority economists.[27][28]

Personal life

Sahm was married to Patrick Sahm, whom she met at Denison University, and with whom she has two children.[3][29] She married health economist Colin Baker in 2020.[30]

Awards
  • 1998: Fulbright Association, Fulbright Research Grant
  • 2006: Institute for Social Research, Innovation in Social Research Award[2]

Publications
  • Bosworth, Barry; Burtless, Gary; Sahm, Claudia (2004). "Distributional Impact of Social Security Reform". In Onofri, Paolo (ed.). The Economics of an Ageing Population: Macroeconomic Issues. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publications. pp. 193–226. doi:10.4337/9781845421601.00014. ISBN 978-1-843-76779-4. OCLC 5149471599.
  • Kimball, Miles S; Sahm, Claudia R; Shapiro, Matthew D (January 2012). "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses" (PDF). Journal of the American Statistical Association. 103 (483): 1028–1038. doi:10.1198/016214508000000139. PMC 2856097. PMID 20407599.
  • Sahm, Claudia R. (2007). Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation (PDF) (PhD). University of Michigan. OCLC 894382254.
  • Kimball, Miles S; Sahm, Claudia R; Shapiro, Matthew D (April 2009). "Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation" (PDF). American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 99 (2): 363–368. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.363. PMC 2995549. PMID 21132079.
  • Larrimore, Jeff; Durante, Alex; Kreiss, Kimberly; Merry, Ellen; Park, Christina; Sahm, Claudia (22 May 2018). "Shedding Light on Our Economic and Financial Lives". FEDS Notes. 2018 (2192). doi:10.17016/2380-7172.2192.
  • Aladangady, Aditya; Aron-Dine, Shifrah; Cashin, David; Dunn, Wendy; Feiveson, Laura; Lengermann, Paul; Richard, Katherine; Sahm, Claudia (21 June 2018). "High-frequency Spending Responses to the Earned Income Tax Credit". FEDS Notes. 2018 (2199). doi:10.17016/2380-7172.2199.

References
  1. "Equitable Growth Announces Claudia Sahm as New Director of Macroeconomic Policy". Equitable Growth. Retrieved 2019-12-02.
  2. "Meet the Economists: Claudia R. Sahm". Federal Reserve Board of Governors. 13 August 2018. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019.
  3. "Who Will Lead?: Claudia Foster Sahm '98". Denison Magazine. Denison University. Retrieved 7 October 2018.
  4. Schneider, Howard (2019-10-04). "'Sahm Rule' enters Fed lexicon as fast, real-time recession flag". Reuters. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
  5. "Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator". fred.stlouisfed.org. 2020-12-04. Retrieved 2020-12-21.
  6. Sahm, Claudia R. (2007). Risk Tolerance and Asset Allocation (PDF) (PhD). University of Michigan. OCLC 894382254.
  7. Ip, Greg (August 26, 2010). The Little Book of Economics: How the Economy Works in the Real World. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470929407.
  8. "Claudia Sahm '98 Headliner at Women in Economics Forum". denison.edu. Granville, Ohio: Denison University. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  9. Boldin, Michael; Wright, Jonathan H. (September 10, 2015). "Weather adjusting economic data". Brookings. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  10. Ozimek, Adam (August 4, 2016). "The Five Biggest Open Economics Questions To Me". Forbes. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  11. Sahm, Claudia R. (December 2012). "How Much Does Risk Tolerance Change?". Quarterly Journal of Finance. 02 (4): 1250020. doi:10.1142/s2010139212500206. ISSN 2010-1392. PMC 4276321. PMID 25544881.
  12. Saraiva, Catarina (September 24, 2020). "Economist Claudia Sahm Leaves Center for Equitable Growth". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
  13. Sahm, Claudia. "hey, look who's a @bloomberg Opinion contributor now: me". Twitter. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  14. "The New York Times - Claudia Sahm". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-12-22.
  15. "FRB: Search Results". www.fedsearch.org. Retrieved July 30, 2020.
  16. Slemrod, Joel; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Sahm, Claudia R. (April 2012). "Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?". American Economic Journal. 4 (3): 216–250. doi:10.1257/pol.4.3.216. ISSN 1945-7731. PMC 3747574. PMID 23970951.
  17. Kimball, Miles S.; Sahm, Claudia R.; Shapiro, Matthew D. (September 1, 2008). "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 103 (483): 1028–1038. doi:10.1198/016214508000000139. ISSN 0162-1459. PMC 2856097. PMID 20407599.
  18. Shapiro, Matthew D.; Sahm, Claudia R.; Kimball, Miles S. (May 2009). "Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation". American Economic Review. 99 (2): 363–368. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.363. ISSN 0002-8282. PMC 2995549. PMID 21132079.
  19. "How to spot a recession". The Economist. June 11, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  20. Furman, Jason. "Opinion | Launch a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Recession". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  21. "Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals | The Hamilton Project". www.hamiltonproject.org. Retrieved 2019-09-14.
  22. "Sahm Rule is a poor predictor of recessions". Financial Times. September 13, 2019.
  23. Sahm, Claudia. "MacroMom". MacroMom Blog. Retrieved 4 October 2018.
  24. Sahm, Claudia (22 February 2018). "Women in Economics Symposium" (presentation). St Louis Fed.
  25. Suiter, Mary; Sahm, Claudia (28 March 2018). "Women in Economics: Claudia Sahm" (Podcast). Timely Topics. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  26. "IAFFE - Petition to the AEA re the EJMR website". www.iaffe.org. Retrieved 2018-10-04.
  27. Cerullo, Megan (July 30, 2020). "Former Fed economist blasts her profession as racist, sexist, elitist". CBS News. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  28. Parramore, Lynn (September 9, 2020). "What Happens When a Noted Female Economist Fights Toxic Culture in the Field?". Institute for New Economic Thinking. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  29. Sahm, Claudia (2019-09-05). "and for ego check: teen daughter noted when 'rule' became a thing that "Sahm" isn't my name, it's her dad's (my ex, now co-parent) ... so yeah, it's not about me, duh. people losing jobs is the recession ... policy that spares them is what matters". @Claudia_Sahm. Retrieved 2020-02-18.
  30. "@ColinSeanBaker and @Claudia_Sahm Red heart Red heart married". Twitter. Retrieved 2020-11-30.
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