2021 Christian Democratic Union of Germany leadership election

The 2021 Christian Democratic Union leadership election took place on 15–16 January 2021 at the party's 33rd Congress to elect the leader of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany.

2021 Christian Democratic Union leadership election

15–16 January 2021
1,001 delegates in the 33rd CDU Federal Congress 501 delegates votes needed to win
Candidate Armin Laschet Friedrich Merz Norbert Röttgen First round 380, 38.42% 385, 38.93% 224, 22.65% Runoff 521, 52.79% 466, 47.21% Eliminated
Leader before election Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Elected Leader Armin Laschet

The election was triggered by the resignation of leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in February 2020. Kramp-Karrenbauer was elected in November 2018 and, while initially popular, suffered a series of difficulties beginning shortly before the 2019 European elections. Her resignation was triggered by her failure to enforce discipline in the CDU's Thuringia branch during the 2020 Thuringian government crisis.[1][2] The election to replace her was originally scheduled to take place on 25 April 2020 in Berlin, but was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On 14 September 2020, Secretary-General Paul Ziemiak announced that the Congress would, due to the pandemic, be held as a one-day meeting on 4 December 2020.[3] However, in late October, the election was further postponed due to a surge in COVID cases nationally.[4] A virtual Congress was held on 15–16 January, with the election of the new leader held on 16 January. The victor was formally confirmed in a postal vote on 22 January.[5]

Three candidates stood in the election. Norbert Röttgen, chair of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, announced his candidacy on 18 February.[6] This was followed on 25 February by a joint announcement from Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet, who declared his intention to stand for the leadership, with the endorsement of federal Health Minister Jens Spahn.[7] A few hours later, former leader of the CDU/CSU Bundestag group Friedrich Merz announced his own candidacy.[8]

Merz won a plurality of votes in the first round of the election, securing 385 (39%) to Laschet's 380 (38%). Röttgen placed third with 224 (23%). Laschet was elected in the runoff, winning 521 (52.8%) of delegate votes, while Merz won 466 (47.2%).[9] Laschet was formally confirmed by a postal vote on 22 January, winning 83.4% of votes.[10]

Candidates

Declared

Portrait	Name	Offices held	State	Announcement date
	Armin Laschet (born 1961)	Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia (2017–present) Deputy Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (2012–present) Leader of the Christian Democratic Union in North Rhine-Westphalia (2012–present)	North Rhine-Westphalia	25 February 2020
	Friedrich Merz (born 1955)	Leader of CDU/CSU Group in the Bundestag and Leader of the Opposition (2000–2002) Member of the Bundestag (1994–2009) Member of the European Parliament (1989–1994)	North Rhine-Westphalia	25 February 2020
	Norbert Röttgen (born 1965)	Chair of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee (2014–present) Member of the Bundestag (1994–present) Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (2009–2012) Deputy Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (2010–2012) Leader of the Christian Democratic Union in North Rhine-Westphalia (2010–2012)	North Rhine-Westphalia	18 February 2020

Armin Laschet

The premier of the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017, Armin Laschet chose Jens Spahn, minister of health and candidate in the previous CDU leadership election, as his deputy. Characterizing his campaign as a bridge between the centrist and right-wing factions, Laschet sees his leadership with Spahn as able to solve the crisis in the CDU, which has been rocked by the fallout from regional CDU lawmakers voting with the far-right to elect the premier of the eastern state of Thuringia and which suffered one of its worst-ever electoral results in Hamburg.[11]

A CDU member since 1979, Laschet has held a variety of positions in local, state, federal and European politics, including stints as an MEP and regional minister overseeing the integration of migrants. Seen as a moderate who is close to Angela Merkel's vision of the CDU, Laschet is a devout Catholic who opposed same-sex marriage and has advocated banning headscarves for girls up to age 14. Despite those views, Laschet tapped Spahn, a married gay man, to be his deputy and is seen as a champion of migrant rights. Laschet is widely considered to be good-natured and adept at building consensus while critics say he is too much like Merkel and not conservative enough to win back voters the CDU lost to the far-right.[12] Some also accused him of having dangerous views in foreign affairs, describing him as being overly friendly towards Russia and China.[13]

Friedrich Merz

Friedrich Merz is a returning rival of Merkel hoping to bring voters lost by Merkel's centrism back to the CDU. After losing leadership of the party in the early 2000s, Merz lost his position as leader of the CDU/CSU Group in the Bundestag and left the Bundestag in 2009 for a career in the private sector. Since his first political retirement, Merz has worked for insurer Axa, chemical giant BASF and investment group BlackRock. When Merkel announced her resignation from the CDU leadership, Merz announced he would challenge Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel's preferred successor, for the position as leader in 2017.[14] He was unsuccessful in winning leadership in 2018, placing second behind Kramp-Karrenbauer.

A law and order, free-market conservative, Merz promises to win back disgruntled CDU voters who have defected to the far-right Alternative for Germany. Both allies and rivals attest to Merz's sharp mind and detailed knowledge of complicated policy issues. However, critics say that he is too right-wing for the party, having opposed a 1997 reform to criminalize rape within marriage and advocating the so-called Leitkultur, which is the promotion of German culture, mores and traditions among immigrants.

Merz was supported by Hungary's ruling Fidesz party.[15]

Norbert Röttgen

The chair of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee and served as federal environment minister between 2009 and 2012, Norbert Röttgen joined the CDU in high school and built a career in the party, becoming a member of parliament in 1994.[16] Röttgen fell out of favour with Merkel in 2012 after choosing to run for the premiership in North-Rhine Westphalia and achieving one of the worst results in his party's history. He was sacked from cabinet days after the result.[17]

A centrist, Röttgen is well-liked by older, establishment CDU insiders. He advocates the core values of the old German republic, namely transatlanticism, the Franco–German partnership and a strong anchoring of Germany in the European Union. Seen as solidly grounded in all the major political issues of the day, critics have pointed to his loss in North Rhine-Westphalia and that he "lacks the common touch" to steer the party in the current state of German politics.[12]

Over the course of the leadership election, support among CDU MPs has been rising for Röttgen. Andreas Nick and Kai Whittaker publicly endorsed him in November 2020.[18]

Opinion polls

Fieldwork date	Pollster	Sample size	Laschet	Merz	Röttgen	Others/None	Undecided/ Don't know
9–11 January 2021	Civey	5,001 voters	13%	30%	32%	—	25%
		CDU/CSU voters	11%	41%	31%	—	17%
4–5 January 2021	Infratest Dimap	1,020 voters	18%	27%	22%	19%	—
		CDU/CSU voters	25%	29%	25%	—	—
18–20 December 2020	Civey	7,514 voters	11,8%	28,8%	31,7%	—	27,7%
		CDU/CSU voters	11,1%	38,0%	28,9%	—	22,0%
27–30 November 2020	Civey	5,003 voters	12,7%	33,4%	27,4%	—	26,5%
		CDU/CSU voters	13%	43%	23%	—	22%
24–25 November 2020	Infratest Dimap	1,047 voters	15%	27%	16%	21%	—
		CDU voters	15%	39%	22%	15%	—
30 October–2 November 2020	Civey	5,003 voters	8,1%	25,9%	10,6%	Spahn 23,3% Others 21,0%	11,1%
		CDU/CSU voters	8,1%	33,4%	9,1%	Spahn 27,4% Others 15,9%	6,1%
20–22 October 2020	Forsa	1,007 CDU members	24%	45%	13%	—	—
23–27 September 2020	Civey	5,018 voters	9,7%	25,5%	11,4%	Spahn 17,7% Others 23,6%	12,1%
		CDU/CSU voters	8,7%	35,6%	10,0%	Spahn 21,2% Others 18,3%	6,2%
3–5 March 2020	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1,276 voters	24%	27%	11%	30%	—
		CDU/CSU voters	27%	40%	10%	19%	—

Delegate estimations

Publication date	Publisher	Laschet	Merz	Röttgen	Unknown
14 January 2021	The European	310	410	180	100
11 January 2021	The European	310	395	125	170
8 January 2021	The European	290	395	115	200
3 January 2021	The European	260	380	60	300

Results

Candidate		First round		Second round
		Votes	%	Votes	%
	Armin Laschet	380	38.42	521	52.57
	Friedrich Merz	385	38.93	466	47.02
	Norbert Röttgen	224	22.65
Abstentions		3	0.30	4	0.40
Total valid votes		992	100.0	991	100.0
Invalid/blank votes		–	–	–	–
Total votes		992	100.0	991	100.0
Source: [19]

First Round Merz   38.93% Laschet   38.42% Röttgen   22.65%

Second Round Laschet   52.57% Merz   47.02%

Notes

References

1. "Sonntagsfrage – Forsa (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 2018-10-30.
2. "Kramp-Karrenbauer: Entscheidung ist seit geraumer Zeit in mir gereift". handelsblatt.de. 2020-02-10. Retrieved 2020-02-11.
3. "CDU wählt neuen Vorsitzenden auf eintägigem Parteitag am 4. Dezember". Reuters Africa (in German). 14 September 2020. Retrieved 14 September 2020.
4. Wahl eines neuen Vorsitzenden: CDU verschiebt Parteitag - Merz kritisiert Entscheidung, sueddeutsche.de, 26 October 2020
5. News, Bloomberg (2020-12-14). "Merkel's Party Opts for Online Convention to Elect New Leader". www.bloomberg.com. Retrieved 2020-12-14.
6. "Norbert Röttgen kandidiert für den CDU-Vorsitz - DER SPIEGEL - Politik". www.spiegel.de (in German). Retrieved 2020-02-26.
7. "The Double-Act That Wants to Take Over Germany". www.bloomberg.com. Retrieved 2020-07-25.
8. Berlin, Berliner Morgenpost- (2020-02-25). "Friedrich Merz kandidiert - und schießt gegen Laschet und Spahn". www.morgenpost.de (in German). Retrieved 2020-02-26.
9. Lotus, Jean (2020-01-16). "Armin Laschet, Merkel ally, elected head of Germany's CDU party". United Press International.
10. "Postal vote". CDU.
11. Posaner, Joshua (2020-02-25). "Laschet and Merz launch bids to lead German conservatives". POLITICO. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
12. Karnitschnig, Matthew (2020-02-25). "The wannabe Merkels". POLITICO. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
13. Barkin, Noah. "You May Miss Merkel More Than You Think". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
14. Karnitschnig, Matthew (2018-11-04). "Old German rival returns to haunt Angela Merkel". POLITICO. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
15. Panyi, Szabolcs (21 January 2021). "Orban Courts New Enablers in Germany for Post-Merkel Era". Balkan Insight. Retrieved 21 January 2021. [Orban's] Plan A was, of course, Friedrich Merz, Laschet’s hardline rival, whom the government-controlled pro-Orban media in Hungary had been portraying for months as the Hungarian prime minister’s ideological ally and praising him as the “anti-immigration candidate”.
16. Posaner, Joshua (2020-02-18). "Bundestag's foreign affairs chief joins CDU leadership race". POLITICO. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
17. Oltermann, Philip (2020-02-18). "Germany: senior CDU figure announces surprise leadership candidacy". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2020-07-06.
18. "Röttgen wirbt um frühere Merz-Anhänger und bekommt Unterstützung | hasepost.de" (in German). November 7, 2020.
19. "Live blog: German CDU picks new leader". POLITICO. 2021-01-15. Retrieved 2021-01-16.